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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) | 43.5 O/U

Bucs: 20.8 Implied Points | Falcons: 22.3 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: [TB] WR Jalen McMillan - OUT, [TB] WR Trey Palmer - OUT

Score Prediction: Bucs - 24, Falcons - 20

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Bucs, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Falcons, 5-1 Bucs

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

WR Chris Godwin: The Bucs have a quality receiving duo between Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, but it has been the latter who has led the team in Target% (27.6%), receptions (27), and receiving yards (322) while both are tied with three TDs apiece. Godwin has resumed running primarily out of the slot this season (62% SlotRoute%), and that has done wonders for his fantasy floor and has also resulted in an excellent 79.4% Catch Rate. The match-up also bodes well for Godwin -- the Falcons have been fairly stout versus perimeter WRs (8th fewest FPPG allowed) but they have surrendered the 11th most FPPG to slot WRs this season.

RB Bijan Robinson: Robinson may not be off to a dazzling start to his sophomore season, and he has really struggled to find running room the last couple of weeks, taking 23 carries for just 59 yards (2.6 YPC) L2Games. However, we know the ceiling is very high for Bijan and, even if he has trouble on the ground again, he can make a sizable impact as a pass catcher. Robinson is 7th among NFL RBs with 15 receptions through four games and 9th in Target% (14.2%). The Bucs, meanwhile, have allowed the 2nd most receptions (26) and receiving yards (243) to opposing RBs. The Falcons O-Line also ranks 3rd in Adjusted Line Yards (5.08) per rush so Robinson’s rush inefficiency in those last two games could simply boil down to poor match-ups (Saints rank 8th in rush DVOA & Chiefs rank 2nd). The Bucs’ run defense is more middle-of-the-road (17th in rush DVOA) and Robinson also carries the best anytime touchdown odds of any player in this game (-140 ATTD). If folks are less than enthused about his recent fantasy point totals, Robinson may go somewhat under-owned as a captain this evening.

QB Baker Mayfield: As I’ve mentioned on many occasions in these showdown newsletters, I’m generally more prone to using QBs as FLEX plays rather than captain selections simply because QBs end up being less optimal captain plays than their actual captain ownership would indicate. But I’m certainly not opposed to giving Baker Mayfield a shot at the premium roster spot tonight. He is the QB3 in total fantasy points this season, trailing only rookie sensation Jayden Daniels and reigning NFL MVP Lamar Jackson. The Falcons have only surrendered 198.8 pass YPG to QBs this season but they have also faced the 5th lowest opponent pass play% (47.8%) -- the Bucs have passed on 58.0% of plays. The Falcons have also allowed the 2nd highest completion percentage at 73.4% and they’ve allowed the 6th most adjusted FP to QBs this season. So, all of that to say, it’s not a bad match-up for Mayfield and he has added some value with his legs as well this season, totaling 65 yards (16.3 YPG) and two rushing TDs on the season.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

WR Mike Evans: Evans isn’t an incredibly consistent WR for DFS purposes, but we know he has a monster ceiling and is a major threat in the redzone (31.3% RedZone Target% this season). He’ll likely draw shadow covering from AJ Terrell on his perimeter routes -- in three previous meetings against the Falcons where Evans was primarily shadowed by Terrell, he had one good game (8-6-82-1, 2023 Wk7), one decent game (8-4-81-0, 2022 Wk5), and one awful game (6-1-8-0, 2023 Wk14). As mentioned in Godwin’s spotlight, the Falcons have allowed the 8th fewest FPPG to perimeter WRs (Evans: 71% PerimeterRoute%) but, ultimately, I’d say the match-up is just slightly below average. Perhaps a ceiling performance will be tough to see out of Evans, making his slate-high $10,200 salary tough to justify as a go-to captain play, but he’s likely to see 8+ targets tonight, especially when factoring in the Bucs’ WR depth being depleted (Jalen McMillan & Trey Palmer both out), and he drew a season-high 14 targets in week four.

WR Drake London: London has commanded a team-leading 27.4% Target% and a dominant 46.2% RedZone Target%. A team-high 36.3% of Atlanta’s air yards have also been directed at London. It’d be nice to see more yards after the catch out of him, as he’s averaging just 2.5 YAC/reception, but his involvement in the redzone more than outweighs his lack of YAC up to this point. London has the third-best odds at scoring a touchdown tonight (+145 ATTD) and the Bucs have struggled against WRs when playing on the road -- TB has allowed +62% more FPPG to WRs when away (L9Games).

RB Bucky Irving: Rachaad White has logged a 68% snap% this season, to Irving’s 36%, but there has been no competition when it comes to who the most efficient runner has been -- Irving has averaged a stout 5.8 YPC (6th among NFL RBs) compared to White’s 2.8 YPC (53rd/dead last among qualified NFL RBs). This is still going to be a shared backfield but the tides may be turning in favor of the rookie potentially taking on the lion’s share of the RB work. His 42% snap% in week four was a season-high (and he found the endzone for his first career TD). Also, ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reports Bucs opponents are “game planning for [Bucky Irving] as if he’s a focal point of the offense.”

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

TE Kyle Pitts: Given all of the hype surrounding him in college, Pitts has been extremely underwhelming in his 1 1/4 seasons in the NFL, and the Falcons’ coaching changes in this past offseason haven’t resulted in any further success for him, as many predicted it would. Pitts owns just a 13.3% Target% through three games paired with a poor 53.3% Catch Rate and 1.0 yards per route run. That being said, Pitts is now cheap enough to be considered a “flier” and he will go low-owned on this showdown slate, so if he happens to pay off with a solid game, there is some great leverage to be had here.

K Younghoe Koo / K Chase McLaughlin: Both kickers in this game have connected on 100% of their FG attempts this season and have combined for six 50+ yarders (three apiece). I’m expecting plenty of FG attempts in this game tonight, and weather isn’t a concern in a domed stadium, so both kickers will set up as quality FLEX options.

RB Tyler Allgeier: Allgeier is firmly behind Bijan Robinson in snaps and touches, but his outstanding efficiency (6.1 YPC, 3rd among NFL RBs) may soon begin to force the Falcons’ coaching staffs’ hand, resulting in more work for Allgeier if Bijan continues to have trouble on the ground. Allgeier’s six redzone rush attempts are as many as Robinson has so he’s not a bad bet to potentially rack up 60+ yards and a TD in this game. Sportsbooks have Allgeier at around 45 rush + receiving yards and a +190 anytime touchdown scorer. It isn’t as if he is going to supplant Robinson as the primary back, but he is deserving of some additional touches.

TE Cade Otton: Otton could end up being a main beneficiary of the Bucs’ WR depth issues with McMillan and Palmer both ruled out for this game. Otton wasn’t much of a factor over the first couple of weeks in the season, but he has commanded 17 targets L2Games resulting in 13 receptions for 99 yards. Otton also quietly leads the Bucs in routes run this season (139) and he has been on the field for 93% of offensive snaps.

WR Ray-Ray McCloud III: McCloud has played no fewer than 95% of the snaps in each of the last three games. He has two games with seven targets and 52 receiving yards. McCloud should run around 80% of his routes either on the left perimeter or out of the slot, which has been the two most favorable match-ups for Bucs’ opposing WRs.

WR Sterling Shepard: With no McMillan or Palmer, Shepard should operate as the Bucs’ WR3. He was elevated to the active roster ahead of the week three game and went on to bring in 3-of-5 targets for 51 yards on a 65% snap%. At $1,600, Shepard represents some real value.

WR Kameron Johnson: Johnson will also see some meaningful snaps tonight as the presumed WR4. While he failed to catch his lone target last week, he was in on 32% of the snaps, and that was with Trey Palmer logging 11 snaps (14% snap%). If he is in on 30-40% of the snaps tonight, Johnson is an intriguing dart throw at the bare minimum $200 showdown salary.

Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*WR Chris Godwin, QB Baker Mayfield, WR Ray-Ray McCloud III: Godwin owns arguably the highest non-QB floor in this game and has already shown some big upside now that he’s back in his primary slot receiving role. Stack with Mayfield and, since this is a pricey pairing, we can save some salary with a cheap bring-back in McCloud. Average remaining salary per player with this stack: $7,333.

*RB Bijan Robinson, K Younghoe Koo, WR Chris Godwin: There have been a couple of lackluster performances for Bijan heading into tonight but, as mentioned, he was up against two stout run defenses. He should find more running room against the Bucs tonight and always has some excellent receiving upside (by RB standards). Pairing him with Younghoe Koo works in some correlation (someone has to gain yardage and set up FG attempts) and we can then afford a high-end bring-back play with Godwin on the other side. Average remaining salary per player with this stack: $6,633.

*QB Baker Mayfield, WR Chris Godwin, WR Mike Evans: Standard CPTN Mayfield double-stack featuring his top two receivers. Other Bucs pass catchers to mix into CPTN Mayfield stacks (in order of preference): TE Cade Otton, WR Sterling Shepard, RB Rachaad White, RB Bucky Irving, WR Kameron Johnson. Average remaining salary per player with this stack: $5,133.

*WR Mike Evans, QB Baker Mayfield, WR Darnell Mooney: Evans doesn’t have the most favorable match-up but we know he has a penchant for big performances and he has arguably the highest ceiling of any player in this game. Pair with Mayfield and, though Mooney wasn’t spotlighted in today’s newsletter, he is a solid bring-back option -- Mooney has a 96.2% snap% this season and has at least six targets + 56 receiving yards in three straight games. Average remaining salary per player with this stack: $5,966.

*WR Drake London, QB Kirk Cousins, RB Bucky Irving: We haven’t seen a massive game out of London just yet but, given his redzone involvement, he’s probably going to put up multiple multi-touchdown games this season. Kirk Cousins is another player who wasn’t spotlighted today but, if London is your captain, it makes sense to put Cousins in the FLEX for correlation purposes. Irving makes for a quality bring-back candidate out of the mid-range and will leave enough salary to add one or two more high-end FLEX plays into the lineup. Average remaining salary per player with this stack: $7,266.

*RB Bucky Irving, K Chase McLaughlin, WR Drake London: Similar concept as the CPTN Bijan stack above, just flipping sides. It’s no guarantee that Irving is going to take the lead over Rachaad White tonight, but all signs are pointing in that direction based on how productive the rookie has been on a per-touch basis. This stack will also leave a ton of salary left over to use on multiple stud plays. Average remaining salary per player with this stack: $8,866.

TNF Touchdown Calls Contest

Retweet the TD calls below for your chance to win a free month of a LineStar premium subscription!

PrizePicks Primetime Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for this game over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but, as usual, Tyler & Shannon have ya covered with some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!