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Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-4) | 49.0 O/U

Commanders: 22.5 Implied Points | Eagles: 26.5 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: [WAS] K Austin Seibert - OUT

Score Prediction: Commanders - 28, Eagles - 23

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Washington, 4-2 Eagles

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

QB Jalen Hurts: Quarterbacks aren’t typically captain targets for me since they just don’t end up being optimal options at the 1.5x position as often as most would think. But when a QB heads in with eight rushing TDs over his last four games, he’s going to demand some CPTN consideration. Hurts has not only been punching in a ton of goal-line TDs, but he is also completing 74.4% of his passes L4Games to go along with 1.5 pass TDs/gm in that span. The Commanders have had issues with mobile QBs this season and they’ve also surrendered +35% more FPPG to QBs when on the road.

RB Saquon Barkley: It can be maddening to see Jalen Hurts fall or get pushed into the endzone from the one-yard line when you have Saquon in your lineup but there’s always a chance the TD luck goes in the latter’s favor in any given week. Via Jake Ciely (The Athletic), Saquon has eight rushes of 3+ yards that have ended at the one-yard line (2nd most in NFL). Coincidentally, Jalen Hurts leads the NFL in attempts from the one-yard line (10) while Barkley has just two such rushes. We know the volume is going to be there for Saquon, and he has historically performed very well against Washington from his days in New York. If he simply breaks into the endzone instead of getting tackled at the goal line, then we can see a touchdown or two to go along with what should be a strong yardage total as well. The Commanders (24th in rush DVOA) have allowed the 6th most rushing YPG and rush TDs to RBs this season.

QB Jayden Daniels: If you’re thinking the Commanders (+4) will pull off the mild road upset, as I do (see score prediction above), then it’s going to need to be a big Jayden Daniels night. Daniels is a virtual lock for the OROTY award and he can pretty much cement it with a big divisional road victory tonight. He’s been a bit of a road warrior this season, averaging 24.4 FPPG in his five road games (versus 19.5 FPPG at home). That trend matches up well with the Eagles’ tendency to allow significantly more FPPG to QBs when they’re at home (+46%!). We’ve seen Daniels’ completion rate take a sizable hit in recent weeks -- 68.7% comp% on the season but just 57.3% comp% L4Games. The Eagles' secondary has also been pretty lockdown lately. So, if the Commanders are to win this game, I believe Daniels will need to have a big night running the ball to keep Philadelphia off balance. I believe we can get 70+ rush yards and a rushing TD out of Daniels this evening and whatever he does as a passer is just icing on the cake.

Flex Plays & Leverage Captain Options

WR AJ Brown: There is plenty of merit in slotting AJ Brown into the captain position tonight but you can’t go wrong sliding him in at FLEX either, especially if you’re rolling with Hurts as captain. Brown missed three games earlier in the season with a hamstring injury, but in the six games he has been healthy, he has dominated the Eagles’ receiving game with a 32.0% Target% and a whopping 49.9% AirYard%. He has gone for at least 84 yards receiving in five of those games and Vegas is giving him the third-best odds (+115) to score a TD tonight. The Commanders have had issues with opposing WR1s this season, allowing 82.9 YPG (4th most) to WR1s and ranking 29th in WR1 DVOA. Quick note: Washington did make a splashy trade to shore up their secondary by acquiring star CB Marshon Lattimore from the Saints, but Lattimore has yet to make his Commanders debut and will be out again tonight with a hamstring injury.

WR Terry McLaurin: As touched on, the Eagles' secondary has been lockdown lately, allowing the fewest FPPG to WRs L4Games. However, McLaurin has been super reliable from a fantasy standpoint and, ever since he and Jayden Daniels established a strong rapport beginning in week three, McLaurin has scored no fewer than 15.8 FP in those eight consecutive games. Scary Terry is 2nd among all NFL receivers with a 43.7% AirYard% this season and, though they have been stout lately, the Eagles rank at a subpar 23rd in WR1 DVOA on the season. McLaurin, who has run 77% of his routes from the left perimeter, will see plenty of Eagles CB Quinyon Mitchell -- Mitchell, who covers that side of the field 99% of the time, has been playing very well, so it’ll be an entertaining match-up to watch between him and McLaurin this evening. Even if he doesn’t go off for a big game, we can still count on McLaurin to bring a strong FLEX-worthy floor to the table.

RB Brian Robinson Jr.: Robinson has missed the last couple of games with a hamstring injury but, considering Washington has a quality RB2 in Austin Ekeler, I don’t believe they would bring B-Rob back unless they intend to give him his usual workload. The Eagles have been stout against the run, ranking 11th in rush DVOA and allowing the 2nd fewest FPPG to RBs. But, even with a mobile QB, the Commanders are not shy about giving Robinson most of the goal-line work and he punched in six TDs through his seven healthy games while averaging 15.0 DKFP/gm. Ekeler will see his fair share of the workload, especially on passing downs, but I do like Robinson’s chances of 15-20 carries for 70+ yards and a TD tonight (he owns the 4th best ATTD odds at +120) so he’s firmly on the FLEX radar.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, & Sleepers

TE Dallas Goedert: Goedert returned from a three-game injury absence last week and, though he caught just 2-of-3 targets for 25 yards, one of those catches went for a TD and it was encouraging to see him play 63% of the snaps after missing essentially a month of football (he only played three snaps before getting injured in week six). Goedert has logged as high as a 97% snap% in a single game this season and it would be reasonable to expect him to play around 80% of the snaps tonight, especially if this turns into a back-and-forth shootout. The Commanders have not allowed a ton of yardage to TEs (37.3 YPG) but they are a middling 18th in TE DVOA and have allowed five TDs (T-3rd most) to the position.

TE Zach Ertz: Ertz spent most of his career as an Eagle and I do believe this is the first time he’ll be returning to Philadelphia on the opposing sideline. Factor in a “revenge” narrative if you wish. Rookie QBs often look to their veteran TEs as safety valves and Ertz has certainly looked the part of Jayden Daniels’ safety valve this season, ranking 2nd on the team with a 19.6% Target%. The Eagles have been very tough against TEs this season, ranking 3rd in TE DVOA and allowing the 4th fewest FPPG to the position. The Eagles are also one of just two teams (LAC) that hasn’t allowed a TE touchdown this season. Nonetheless, Ertz will probably see at least a handful of targets and bring a decent DFS floor to lineups.

K Jake Elliott / K Zane Gonzalez: Both kickers set up as strong FLEX plays in this one. If you have an Eagles player as captain, I would lean toward rostering Elliott (if you’re rostering a kicker at all) just for correlation purposes. However, the Commanders lead the NFL in percentage of drives ending in a field goal and, before he was injured, K Austin Seibert was the No. 1 kicker in fantasy scoring per game (13.3 FPPG). Zane Gonzalez stepped in as the interim kicker and connected on both his FGAs and all three PATs in his first game with Washington last week. No weather/wind issues expected in Philly tonight.

WR Jahan Dotson: Dotson has done very little this season -- no more than 36 yards receiving in a game and just two games with multiple catches. But he can break loose for a big play, he is playing the 3rd most WR snaps for the Eagles, and he may have a little extra motivation going up against his former team.

WR Luke McCaffrey: McCaffrey is consistently playing the 3rd most WR snaps for the Commanders lately. Statistically, the Eagles have been weakest versus the slot this season (McCaffrey: 85% SlotRoute%) and McCaffrey has been a sure-handed target with an 81.3% Catch% this season.

TE Grant Calcaterra: Even with Goedert back in action, Calcaterra should still play around half of the snaps tonight. He could certainly put up a goose egg and see zero targets, but he’s also a luckbox TD candidate. Primetime games seem to be where backup TEs shine, after all.

Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*QB Jalen Hurts, WR AJ Brown, TE Dallas Goedert: Standard CPTN Hurts double-stack. Given his value as a runner, I don’t believe you need to double-stack with Hurts as you would with most other traditional pocket passers, but AJ Brown would be a near-lock as a FLEX for me in any CPTN Hurts lineups. Other Eagles pass catchers to mix into CPTN Hurts lineups (in order of preference): WR DeVonta Smith, WR Jahan Dotson, RB Saquon Barkley, TE Grant Calcaterra, WR Johnny Wilson. Average salary per remaining FLEX player with this stack: $5,633.

*RB Saquon Barkley, K Jake Elliott, WR Terry McLaurin: As discussed, if the TD luck falls in Saquon’s favor tonight, he should come away with another monster performance. He can’t keep getting tackled at the one-yard line this regularly, right? We’ll save some salary while working in some correlation by taking Eagles kicker Jake Elliott (someone has to pick up yards and set up FGs) then utilize Scary Terry as a high-end bring-back. If the Eagles are running Barkley heavily, that likely means they are playing with a lead and the Commanders will be passing it plenty on the other side. Average salary per remaining FLEX player with this stack: $6,633.

*QB Jayden Daniels, WR Terry McLaurin, TE Zach Ertz: Standard CPTN Daniels double-stack featuring his top two targets on the season. The concept is similar to the CPTN Hurts lineup. Given his mobility, I don’t view it as a “must” to double-stack CPTN Daniels lineups -- McLaurin, however, would be close to a lock. Other Commanders pass catchers to mix into CPTN Daniels lineups (in order of preference): WR Noah Brown, RB Austin Ekeler, WR Luke McCaffrey, WR Olamide Zaccheaus, WR Dyami Brown. Average salary per remaining FLEX player with this stack: $6,600.

*WR AJ Brown, QB Jalen Hurts, WR Luke McCaffrey: Even with a super-talented WR2 in DeVonta Smith, there has been no question who the WR1 is in this Eagles offense. Brown has dominated the target share and air yards in the six games that he has been healthy, and he could easily land in as the optimal captain tonight. Pair Brown with Hurts in the FLEX and, since it is an expensive WR/QB stack, we’ll go with a salary-saving bring-back play with Luke McCaffrey and still have plenty of salary left over to spend up on one or two more studs. Average salary per remaining FLEX player with this stack: $7,600.

*WR Terry McLaurin, QB Jayden Daniels, RB Saquon Barkley: Pairing a team's WR1 (at captain) with the opposing team’s workhorse RB1 is a fairly standard, but strong, correlating lineup build on these showdown slates, so that’s what we’re rolling with here. McLaurin is consistently one of the most underrated WR1s in the NFL and I don’t believe we’ve seen his true ceiling with Jayden Daniels at QB just yet. McLaurin is going to see multiple deep shots along with some high-percentage underneath targets tonight and he’s been a stellar option in the redzone. So, we’ll stack CPTN McLaurin with Daniels and, though it will be pricey, we’ll take Saquon as a premiere bring-back play. Average salary per remaining FLEX player with this stack: $5,166.

*RB Brian Robinson Jr., QB Jayden Daniels, K Zane Gonzalez: A Commanders-heavy stack that should give you exposure to every point scored by the Washington offense tonight. If you’re high on the Commanders winning this game and scoring 30+ points, this stack would likely pay off nicely if it comes to fruition. The Eagles have had a fairly easy schedule the last five weeks and the Commanders should be one of the toughest opponents they’ve gone up against this season (that statement would be pretty wild to write in recent years). Average salary per remaining FLEX player with this stack: $7,500.

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!