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Dallas Cowboys (-5.5) at New York Giants | 45.0 O/U

Cowboys: 25.3 Implied Points | Giants: 19.8 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: [NYG] K Graham Gano - OUT/IR, [NYG] WR Darius Slayton - Questionable

Score Prediction: Cowboys - 26, Giants - 17

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Cowboys, 3-3 Balanced, 5-1 Cowboys, 4-2 Giants

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

WR Malik Nabers: It has not taken long for Nabers to burst on the scene, and any doubts about him related to his QB play have been quieted thanks to some absolutely ludicrous volume. Nabers leads all NFL receivers in Air Yards (384), AirYard% (57.0%), and Target% (37.8%). 28 of his 37 targets (75.7%) from QB Daniel Jones have been categorized as “catchable targets” which isn’t necessarily great, but it’s more of a “hey, could be worse” percentage. I’m not too concerned with the match-up either. Nabers will see a good chunk of his routes against the aggressive star CB Trevon Diggs, however, only around 40% of Nabers’ routes have been on the left perimeter, which is where Diggs has covered 92% of the time.

QB Dak Prescott: Normally, unless a QB has some quality rushing upside, I’m less inclined to consider them as a captain play, but Prescott did punch in a rushing score last week, and he has had some truly monster games against the Giants in his career. The last time he faced this team, Prescott threw for 400+ yards and accounted for five TDs (4 passing/1 rushing). The Cowboys’ running game also hasn’t amounted to much this season which has, in part, resulted in them passing on 68.4% of plays (2nd highest pass% in NFL). Prescott also has some pretty clear-cut stack partners, headlined by stud WR CeeDee Lamb, and if he’s slotted in as your captain, a double-stack is 100% a strong approach to take with a triple-stack (Prescott + three of his receivers) being fully viable as well.

TE Jake Ferguson: This is probably more of a “leverage captain” play, but I do like how Ferguson sets up here, and he brings as much multi-touchdown potential to the table as any player in this game. Ferguson missed week two’s contest with a knee injury but returned last week to log six receptions on 11 targets for 95 yards, despite only playing 66% of snaps. Ferguson typically played around 80% of snaps on a game-by-game basis last year, so we should see that number rise a bit tonight. The Giants also check in at 28th in TE DVOA, so it’s a promising match-up.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

WR CeeDee Lamb: Lamb is firmly on the captain's radar, but his hefty salary is the only reason he is landing in this section. Well, perhaps a rather lackluster 19.8% Target% is playing a part too, but that number is likely only going to increase from this point onward. Lamb’s 54.2% Catch% is also unusually low, so he and QB Dak Prescott simply haven’t been on the same page on some plays thus far. Lamb should have no problems with the match-up. The Giants’ secondary will be missing starting slot CB Dru Phillips and CB Adoree’ Jackson, who has played more of a depth corner role this season. Lamb has run roughly 60% of his routes out of the slot and in his remaining routes out on the perimeter, he will likely be shadowed by CB Deonte Banks, which has been a strong match-up for opposing WRs this season.

QB Daniel Jones: We all know Jones isn’t great, but you don’t have to be a great QB to put up a serviceable fantasy score, as Jones has done the previous two games (19.44 DKFP @ CLE, 18.32 DKFP @ WAS). Jones is capable of adding value with his rushing ability and finally having a true No. 1 receiver has seemed to help his fantasy output. It’s not going to be an exciting play, and Jones’ captain viability isn’t over the top, but he makes for a perfectly sensible FLEX option in this NFC East showdown.

RB Devin Singletary: Singletary has dominated the Giants’ backfield usage, averaging 17.0 touches/gm for 85.0 total YPG, and he has also passed the eye test, averaging 3.0 yards after contact/attempt, which ranks 4th among NFL RBs. The Cowboys’ run defense has also been awful as they have easily allowed the most FPPG to the position and check in at dead last in rush DVOA. Singletary sets up as an excellent FLEX play along with some real low-owned CPTN appeal.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

RB Rico Dowdle: A little expensive for this section, but Dowdle has looked like the best option in the Cowboys’ backfield, and it would make sense for his snap% and workload to gradually increase starting tonight. He has only played 45% of the snaps this season, but the Cowboys have also found themselves playing from behind in a hurry these last couple of weeks. If Dallas jumps out to an early lead and maintains it, Dowdle could flirt with 15+ touches with a decent shot at a TD (though, he has yet to receive any redzone opportunities this season).

WR Jalen Tolbert: Tolbert has played 78% of snaps this season and has emerged in the last two weeks, combining for nine receptions on 14 targets for 124 yards and a TD. Tolbert also has seen just 46 fewer air yards than top WR CeeDee Lamb, and he owns a team-leading 14.4-yard aDOT, so Dak Prescott is generally looking for Tolbert further down the field for big plays.

K Brandon Aubrey: Aubrey has been the top kicker in fantasy this season and if you were to transfer his fantasy points to other positions, he would rank as the WR4, TE1, RB6, and QB16 on the season. He has nailed five 50+ yarders thus far, with at least one 50+ yarder in each game, and there aren’t any wind/weather concerns in this game tonight. Kickers are still volatile since there is no guarantee they’re going to see multiple FG opportunities, but Aubrey will likely get his chances tonight.

WR Wan’Dale Robinson: Robinson ranks second on the team, predictably behind Malik Nabers, with a healthy 24.5% Target%. He runs roughly 80% of his routes out of the slot and Cowboys’ slot CB Jourdain Lewis has not graded out well defensively this season, even though he hasn’t surrendered much production up to this point. Robinson’s upside isn’t immense but he will be a strong floor play and his $4,800 salary is a generous price point given the results he has turned in through three games.

WR KaVontae Turpin: Turpin is very much a boom-or-bust option considering he has only played on 21% of snaps this season but he did find the endzone last week and has plenty of elusiveness to break off a big play.

RB Tyrone Tracy Jr.: The rookie saw a season-high 31% snap% and seven touches in week three. He’s a capable pass catcher and would likely see increased work if this game were to turn into a Cowboys blowout.

TE Theo Johnson: Johnson has logged at least a 79% snap% in all three games and, though it has amounted to just two receptions for 31 yards on seven targets, he is out there on the field running routes on most of Daniel Jones’ dropbacks, so that alone makes him a worthwhile flier.

WR Jalin Hyatt: Hyatt is viewed as mostly just a deep threat and he hasn’t brought in either of his two targets this season while only playing 19.1% of snaps. However, he becomes a more viable option tonight if WR Darius Slayton (thumb/questionable) is unable to suit up.

Unfortunately, due to some technical issues experienced today (thanks Helene), I don’t have enough time to put together the “Stack Concepts” section if I want to get this newsletter pushed out with some decent time before kickoff.

PrizePicks Primetime Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for this game over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but, as usual, Tyler & Shannon have some sharp recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NFL – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!