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New England Patriots at New York Jets (-6) | 38.5 O/U

Pats: 16.3 Implied Points | Jets: 22.3 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: None

Score Prediction: Pats - 20, Jets - 24

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Jets, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Pats, 5-1 Jets

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

RB Breece Hall: On the surface, this game has the makings of a classic low-scoring TNF slogfest but I have some very cautious optimism that we’ll see a close, somewhat high-scoring game here. Either way, a guy like Breece Hall is game-script-proof and has looked as good as ever in his third NFL season. Through two games, Hall has accrued 30 carries, but his involvement as a pass catcher is really boosting his floor/ceiling. His 24.1% target% lead all NFL RBs, his total targets (14) are tied with De’Von Achane for the NFL lead, and his 91 receiving yards check in at 4th behind Achane, Austin Ekeler, and Alvin Kamara. Hall has found the endzone both weeks, one by air, one by ground. Jets rookie backup RB Braelon Allen scored two TDs last week and had 11 opportunities (seven carries, four targets) of his own, but Breece Hall is unlikely to lose the overwhelming volume in this backfield. RBs have only averaged 46.5 rush YPG against the Pats in their two games this season, but they have allowed five receptions/GM to the position. The Pats also rank 19th in rush DVOA so their run defense surface stats may not be reflective of their actual talent level; meaning, they aren’t likely to contain RBs to a 3.6 YPC average. Breece Hall is also easily the best RB they’ll have faced thus far in the young season, and the same goes for this Jets O-Line, which could be considered a top-10 or even top-five unit.

RB Rhamondre Stevenson: The Pats have featured their own workhorse RB with Rhamondre Stevenson averaging 25.5 touches/gm over the first two weeks, including a dozen redzone opportunities. The Jets’ run defense also looks to be their weakness as they have allowed 162.5 total YPG to RBs thus far while ranking 26th in rush DVOA. Stevenson will need to shore up the ball security issues (lost a fumble in both games this season) lest he cede more touches to Antonio Gibson, who had 103 yards on 12 touches last week.

WR Garrett Wilson: Not that anyone was doubting who the WR1 in this Jets offense is after the big week one Allen Lazard game, but through two games, Wilson leads the team in target% (29.3%), AirYard% (45.0%), receiving yards (117), routes (62), and he has played 96% of snaps in both games. Wilson will likely be shadowed by second-year standout CB Christian Gonzalez on most of his routes, primarily on the perimeter, but, as we saw out of DK Metcalf last week (14-10-129-1 target/receiving line), WR1s can put up big numbers on this Pats’ secondary.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

QB Aaron Rodgers: While he may be in more of the “game manager” mold at this stage of his career, Aaron Rodgers still makes for a strong, high-floor FLEX play on these single-game showdown slates. He has only averaged 171.5 YPG this season on a 60.8% comp%, however, the Pats have allowed a 74.0% comp% to QBs this season. Rodgers could also benefit from WR2 Mike Williams ramping up to a more significant workload after he logged an 18% snap% in week one followed by a 65% snap% in week two. Somewhat surprisingly, the Jets have played at the 3rd fastest pace in the NFL so, if that continues, Rodgers may end up posting some high single-game volume from a pass attempts standpoint.

TE Hunter Henry: Henry was the clear lead target for QB Jacoby Brissett last week -- his 12 targets equated to a whopping 50% target%. No other Pats WR/TE saw more than three targets (12.5% target%). Henry turned those dozen looks into eight receptions for 109 yards. It’s likely an outlier game but with no true established WR weapons in this Pats offense just yet, Henry could continue to be the top receiving option. Henry may also see additional targets due to the Pats WRs facing off with the vaunted Jets secondary, which has allowed only 19 receptions to opposing WRs thus far.

WR Mike Williams: I still believe some folks are going to chase that week one performance from Allen Lazard (26.9 DKFP), but Mike Williams is the true WR2 on this team, and he should be expected to surpass Lazard in snaps/routes run tonight. Williams caught his lone target for 19 yards last week but we know, based on past healthy seasons, that Williams has a huge ceiling, albeit at the cost of extreme volatility. With more defensive attention going toward Garrett Wilson, Williams may find room for a big play or two.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

Jets D/ST: The Jets are playing in their 2024 home opener tonight as six-point favorites and, as is often the case with TNF games, this could easily end up being a sloppy, low-scoring game. Even if there is a decent amount of scoring, the talented Jets D/ST has strong potential for double-digit fantasy point upside (and I’d suspect that a higher-than-normal percentage of lineups will utilize them as their captain play tonight).

RB Braelon Allen: Don’t count on the two TDs again but Allen did log a respectable 35% snap% in week two and if this game were to trend toward a blowout early, or if a Breece Hall injury were to occur, Allen is talented to put up a strong DFS score on a dozen touches or so. He’s pricey by backup RB standards, but he makes sense from a contrarian standpoint.

K Greg Zuerlein/K Joey Slye: As far as kickers go, neither one of these guys will be exciting to roster but both guys could have multiple FGA tonight if their offenses fail to sustain drives in enemy territory. Not exactly an expert-level analytical take there but, eh, kickers are kickers and they’re often under-owned on these single-game slates.

RB Antonio Gibson: While Rhamondre Stevenson is one of my top three captain candidates, he’s probably not going to continue to see 20 to 25+ touches/gm and, as mentioned, if he loses another fumble, Gibson’s role may grow significantly… if only for one game. Gibson is the more elusive of the Pats’ two tailbacks and he currently ranks 2nd among all NFL RBs with a 3.9-yards after contact/attempt average (small sample size, of course).

WR KJ Osborn: This Pats WR room is tough to dissect and a limited amount of faith should be instilled in all of them. That said, Osborn has played on 91 offensive snaps this season while no other Pats WR has logged more than 77 snaps (Demario Douglas). Osborn’s eight targets are also second-most on the team (among WRs/TEs) behind only TE Hunter Henry. Rookie WR Ja’Lynn Polk will probably see the most ownership after catching Jacoby Brissett’s lone TD pass last week. WR Demario Douglas, the Pats’ primary slot man, will likely see similar ownership as Osborn, but Osborn will have a higher potential ceiling.

TE Tyler Conklin: Just two catches on four targets for 16 yards through two games but Conklin has logged 90% and 93% snap rates while running the second-most routes (56) on the team. He’s cheap enough to be worthy of a dart throw in some lineups and he could always luckbox a redzone TD.

WR Tyquan Thornton: Thornton is viewed as the home run threat in this receiving core and, albeit on just three targets, his team-leading 19.0-yard aDOT reflects that. No other Pats receiver has higher than an 8.3-yard aDOT. Thornton has played around half of the Pats’ offensive snaps but is second among Pats WR routes run. To me, he is the most intriguing Pats WR tonight, even though he carries significant goose egg potential.

Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*RB Breece Hall, Jets D/ST, RB Rhamondre Stevenson: I doubt many people will overreact to Braelon Allen’s performance from last week but Breece Hall is clearly the top dog in this backfield and his usage as a pass catcher has been great. In a game where both lead backs could easily combine for 40-50 touches, it makes sense to get both in the same lineup while also working in some CPTN Breece correlation by “stacking” the Jets D/ST in the FLEX. Average salary per remaining player with this stack: $5,166.

*RB Rhamondre Stevenson, QB Aaron Rodgers, WR Mike Williams: This stack somewhat implies that the Pats control the game and feed Stevenson non-stop while Rodgers and the Jets have to lean pass-heavy on the other side. On a short week, anything can happen in these TNF games so it’s not all too ridiculous to think things could play out this way. Stack Rodgers with one of his pass catchers -- given the five-digit price tags on Stevenson and Rodgers, I’ve opted to go with the more affordable WR Mike Williams (with hopes of a breakout game) as opposed to Garrett Wilson, though, using Wilson instead of Williams is a viable build as well. Average salary per remaining player with this stack: $5,566.

*WR Garrett Wilson, QB Aaron Rodgers, TE Hunter Henry: Perhaps both teams surprise us by airing it out more than expected tonight. Garrett Wilson is a prime captain candidate regardless of how the game script goes, so we’ll stack him with Rodgers in the FLEX and run it back with TE Hunter Henry, who may see 10+ targets again tonight if the Jets’ DBs do their thing. Average salary per remaining player with this stack: $5,633.

*QB Aaron Rodgers, WR Garrett Wilson, WR Mike Williams: Standard CPTN Rodgers double-stack. The passing volume hasn’t been great for Rodgers just yet but, as mentioned, this could be his most efficient game thus far (NE: 74.0% opp comp%). Other Jets pass catchers to mix in with CPTN Rodgers stacks (in order of preference): WR Allen Lazard, RB Breece Hall, TE Tyler Conklin, TE Jeremy Ruckert.

*TE Hunter Henry, QB Jacoby Brissett, RB Breece Hall: Last week’s target volume will be difficult and unlikely to repeat but Henry could very well be the top receiving threat in this offense for the foreseeable future until one or two of the WRs separate themselves from the pack. It’s maybe not exciting, but if Henry ends up as the optimal captain, then there’s a decent chance Brissett makes for an optimal FLEX play, so we’ll stack them together while taking the premium bring-back play in RB Breece Hall. Average salary per remaining player with this stack: $5,833.

*WR Mike Williams, QB Aaron Rodgers, WR Tyquan Thornton: A more unconventional stack here but Mike Williams and, to a lesser extent, Tyquan Thornton could be the two big play downfield threats in this game. It’s a low-floor, high-upside approach, but both Williams and Thornton could haul in long TDs in this one as their team’s respective aDOT leaders. You can also jam in two or three stud plays into the same lineup with this stack. Average salary per remaining player with this stack: $9,700.

PrizePicks Primetime Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for this game over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Hunter Henry MORE than 8.0 Fantasy Score

Mike Williams MORE than 15.5 Yards - Longest Reception

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!