By: Ryan Humphries

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NFL Week 16 Primetime Preview

Welcome back for another look ahead at this week’s NFL primetime showdowns! In this edition of the ‘Primetime Preview,’ we’ll be including the Saturday night game between the Colts and Cardinals to go along with the usual Thursday, Sunday, and Monday Night Football games. I thought about also throwing in a write-up for the Saturday afternoon Browns/Packers game but at this time there are still so many COVID issues to worry about, primarily within the Browns organization. I couldn’t possibly give reliable play recommendations without making a ton of guesswork on who will and won’t be available.

Due to the holidays being right around the corner and time being at a premium, I’ll be trimming things up a bit by skipping over the actual game previews and jumping straight into the recommended plays and some stack concepts for each primetime match-up. I hope everyone has a blessed holiday weekend and best of luck in your DFS ventures!

Note: At the time of this writing, showdown salaries are not available for the SNF and MNF games.

Due to format discrepancies between DraftKings and FanDuel along with how lineups are constructed for single-game contests, this article is more geared towards a DraftKings-focused GPP approach.

San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) at Tennessee Titans | 44 O/U

SF: 23.8 implied points | TEN: 20.3 implied points

Notable DFS Related Injuries: RB Eli Mitchell (OUT), WR AJ Brown (IR - designated to return ahead of TNF)

Score Prediction: SF - 26, TEN - 21

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 SF, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 TEN

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

TE George Kittle: While it was tempting to lead this recommended captain section with the do-it-all weapon that is Deebo Samuel ($11,600/CPTN: $17,400), he hasn’t had more than five targets dating back to week nine ever since he took on more of a hybrid WR/RB role. While it certainly isn’t impossible for Deebo to be the optimal captain on this showdown slate, I believe I’ll side with Kittle if I’m going for one of these premium 49ers fantasy stalwarts. Kittle has been playing at an other worldy level of “good” since returning from injury in week nine. He boasted a pair of ceiling games during his week 13-14 stretch which netted him 22 receptions, 332 yards, and three TDs. The hang-up here is Tennessee being stingy against TEs (5th fewest FPPG allowed) but Kittle is just a match-up nightmare and should be Jimmy G’s go-to target in this game. We should have plenty of confidence in Kittle this evening.

WR AJ Brown: Brown has missed the Titans previous three games due to a chest injury but is expected to be activated off of IR ahead of TNF. Barring some unexpected news, AJ Brown will be on the field this evening. He’s a much-needed weapon in an offense that has averaged only 145.3 passing YPG in the recent three games without him. Despite not having an injury designation heading into this game, there are obviously durability concerns with Julio Jones and no other Titans receiver has really stepped up in AJB’s absence. The match-up is looking like a good one as well. Over the 49ers last four games, WRs are scoring the 2nd most FPPG along with 13.5 YPC.

Update: Brown being activated off of IR confirmed. He’s a ‘go’ tonight.

RB Jeff Wilson Jr.: With RB Elijah Mitchell (knee) set to miss his third consecutive game, Jeff Wilson Jr. is in line to dominate touches out of the backfield, despite Deebo Samuel’s continued involvement as a runner. Wilson played 88% of snaps last week and totaled 23 total touches for 119 yards and a TD. The Titans have been stout against the run but rank out 17th in run DVOA so the match-up may be easier than what it appears to be on paper. Either way, any player with the potential to reach 20 touches needs to draw some captain consideration, especially if the 49ers get ahead in this game and look to control the T.O.P. with Wilson on the ground.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

QB Jimmy Garoppolo: Jimmy G has only one game this season where he has surpassed 23 DKFP so that isn’t exactly a great indicator that we can rely on him as a bona fide captain play. Is the potential for him to be the optimal captain there? Sure. But I’d look for Garoppolo as more of a FLEX play due to his relatively solid floor. While he may not be lighting up the stat sheet, Garoppolo has accounted for a touchdown in every start this season and ranks 10th in the NFL in overall QBR. He has also averaged 43% more DKFP on the road this season and, by all indications, he should be a pretty strong bet to finish somewhere within the 15-20 DKFP range.

RB D’Onta Foreman: Even without Derrick Henry available, the Titans are an offense that would prefer to rely upon their running game -- their 47.8% rush play% checks in as the 3rd highest run rate in the league. While the snap share has been working out to a fairly close three-way split between D’Onta Foreman, Dontrell Hilliard, and Jeremy McNichols the last couple of weeks, Foreman is getting the ball in his hands when he’s on the field. His 31 snaps in last week’s game works out to only a 39% snap%; however, he was handed the ball or targeted on 25 of those 31 snaps. While the other two backs combined for 24 touches+targets on 52 total snaps. Essentially, Foreman is the guy that appears to be the preferred feature back, though he’ll have his work cut out for him against the 49ers who rank 2nd in run DVOA.

K Robbie Gould: It’s never a bad idea to target solid kickers when searching for value FLEX play who can net you around 10-ish FP. Gould has been solid on the road this season where he has averaged 9.8 FPPG. 

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

RB Dontrell Hilliard: While Foreman is most likely to own the largest piece of the pie in terms of Titans backfield touches, Hilliard has certainly earned a notable role as well. It’s only a 34 carry sample size, but Hilliard has provided explosive plays while averaging an impressive 6.7 YPC. Hilliard may also be trending towards being the Titans preferred pass catching back after out-targeting Jeremy McNichols six-to-three in last week’s game.

49ers D/ST: This D/ST unit has netted at least nine FP in five of the last six games and the Titans are allowing opposing D/STs to average 12.8 FPPG over their last four. The Titans will be without the starting left side of their O-Line with LT Taylor Lewan and LG Rodger Saffold… not an ideal situation when Nick Bosa is on the other side. On top of that, Ryan Tannehill has been the second-most sacked QB in the NFL this season.

WR Jauan Jennings: Over the last four weeks, Jennings has tallied a 50% snap count and is being utilized as the 49ers main slot receiver (59% slot%). While there is not guaranteed volume with Jennings likely being fourth in the pecking order for targets, he could produce a decent stat line against a Titans defense which has allowed the most FPPG to slot WRs this season. Jennings should possess some fairly low ownership given his $5,000 salary and uncertain target volume.

Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*TE George Kittle, QB Jimmy Garoppolo, K Robbie Gould

*WR AJ Brown, RB Jeff Wilson Jr., WR Deebo Samuel

*RB Jeff Wilson Jr., 49ers D/ST, TE George Kittle

*RB D’Onta Foreman, WR AJ Brown, WR Jauan Jennings

*TE George Kittle, RB Dontrell Hilliard, K Robbie Gould

Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals (-1) | 49 O/U

IND: 24.8 implied points | ARI: 25.8 implied points

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries (as of Thur. afternoon): RB James Conner (Q), TE Zach Ertz (Q), WR Rondale Moore (Q), WR DeAndre Hopkins (IR/Out), WR Antoine Wesley (Q)

Score Prediction: IND - 31, ARI - 24

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 IND, 4-2 ARI

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

RB Jonathan Taylor: While Cooper Kupp is putting up historical numbers, I believe we still have to give the nod for “fantasy MVP” to Jonathan Taylor simply because of how rare it is to have a workhorse RB stay healthy and perform in such dominant fashion week in and week out. It’s definitely a quarterback-centric award but JT also deserves a realistic shot at the actual league MVP award as well. If he posts another monstrous game over a quality opponent like the Arizona Cardinals on Christmas night with all eyes watching, expect Taylor to pull closer to Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady in the future NFL MVP betting market.

QB Kyler Murray: Speaking of potential MVP honors, Murray was looking like the early favorite to win towards the start of the season but a couple of down games, a blowout loss to the inept Lions last week, and three mid-season games missed due to injury have combined to make winning an MVP award less of a reality. Murray is still one of the most dangerous and versatile weapons in fantasy football. While his rushing volume (which makes him such a high ceiling fantasy asset) is down this season, Murray did recently account for 120 rushing yards and two TDs on 17 carries between weeks 13 and 14. With the potential for RB James Conner (heel) to miss this game, or perhaps be limited, Murray’s rushing ceiling could be on the rise on Saturday night.

TE Zach Ertz: We will need to monitor Ertz’s health heading into this game as he deals with a hamstring injury, but him having some limited practices this week should indicate that he’s on the more favorable side of his current “questionable” injury designation. Tight ends have absolutely torched this Colts defense (3rd most FPPG allowed) which has otherwise been strong against RBs (5th fewest FPPG allowed) and WRs (3rd fewest FPPG allowed L4Wks). You can take a peek at the recent list of tight ends to have faced the Colts and see what kind of success they’ve managed to produce. Ertz has seen 7.3 targets/gm in the last four and will continue to be one of the primary beneficiaries of DeAndre Hopkins missing the rest of the regular season.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

WR Christian Kirk: The biggest hurdle keeping Kirk out of the captain section above is his fairly high $9,000 showdown price tag. Don’t get me wrong -- his lofty salary is certainly warranted after leading the Cardinals in targets (12) last week and coming away with a 9-94-1 receiving line while playing 95% of snaps. It’s also not the greatest of match-ups and, as mentioned in Ertz’s write-up, the Colts have surrenderd the 3rd fewest FPPG to WRs over the last month. However, I expect the majority of lineups will look to roster both Jonathan Taylor and Kyler Murray, one residing in the CPTN slot, so someone like Kirk may go under-owned despite having scored double-digit DKFP in 9-of-14 games and getting an expected target share boost due to the DHop injury.

WR Michael Pittman Jr.: After getting ejected from last week’s game against the Patriots due to a physical altercation, Pittman should look to redeem himself in week 16. He is far and away from the most reliable receiving threat in this Colts offense. His upside has taken a hit in recent weeks due to Carson Wentz averaging just 14.8 completions/gm over the last four and… ya know… that Jonathan Taylor guy running wild. But there is strong potential for Pittman to post his best game in weeks against a backpeddling Cardinals secondary which has allowed the 3rd most FPPG to WRs over their last four games.

RB Chase Edmonds: Even if James Conner (heel) does suit up and isn’t limited, Edmonds is a strong value FLEX option at only $3,000. Edmonds missed essentially five games (played only one snap in week nine) due to an ankle injury but he returned to the lineup last week and played 29 of Arizona’s 76 offensive snaps (38%) -- just four fewer snaps than Conner. In a negative game script, neither running back had huge days but Edmonds was efficient on a per touch basis taking his six carries for 53 yards (8.8 YPC). For players who are on pace for at least 100 rushes, Edmonds ranks 2nd in the NFL with a 5.9 YPC average, trailing only Josh Allen (6.2 YPC). Edmonds was also routinely seeing a handful of targets per game as well and, even though James Conner performed extremely well in his absence, it should be expected that Edmonds continues to operate as the preferred receiving back in this two-man committee. 

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

WR Ashton Dulin: Good luck trying to guess which other Colts receiver not named “Michael Pittman Jr.” will produce a fantasy relevant game but if you’re throwing caution into the wind, Dulin has “take it to the house” 4.4 speed and is a candidate to see a couple of deep shots or end-around carries. He scored in back-to-back weeks prior to the Colts previous game against New England and, if recent trends mean anything, he should see around a 30% snap%.

Colts D/ST: Sure, it was a bit of an anomaly, but if the Lions defense was able to keep the Cardinals to 12 points a week ago, who is to say a much better Colts defense can’t pull off a similar performance? The Colts enter week 16 with double-digit fantasy points in four of their last five games and rank 8th in the NFL in overall DVOA while being tied for 1st with Dallas for total turnovers (31).

WR Antoine Wesley: When DeAndre Hopkins sat out in weeks 9, 10, and 11, it was Antoine Wesley who saw an extremely noticeable uptick time on the field playing 77%, 76%, and 76% of snaps. In that span, he caught 7-of-8 targets for 106 yards. After Hopkins was placed on IR ahead of last week’s game, Wesley went on the play 84% of snaps and was targeted eight times, though that only amounted to three catches for 19 yards. However, any receiver in a quality offense who has a shot at an 80+% snap% is worth considering and Wesley checks in with a basement level $1,000 showdown salary. He’s currently listed as “questionable” but keep his name in mind if he suits up on Saturday night, especially if rookie Rondale Moore (ankle) sits out.

Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*RB Jonathan Taylor, Colts D/ST, RB Chase Edmonds

*QB Kyler Murray, WR Christian Kirk, WR Antoine Wesley

*TE Zach Ertz, RB, Chase Edmonds, RB Jonathan Taylor

*WR Michael Pittman Jr., QB Carson Wentz, WR AJ Green

*RB Chase Edmonds, RB Jonathan Taylor, QB Kyler Murray

Washington Football Team at Dallas Cowboys (-10.5) | 46.5 O/U

WAS: 18.5 implied points | DAL: 28.0 implied points

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries (as of Thur. afternoon): RB Antonio Gibson (Q), RB Tony Pollard (Q), RB JD McKissic (IR/Out), WR Curtis Samuel (Q), QB Kyle Allen (C19)

Score Prediction: DAL - 30, WAS - 21

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 DAL, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 WAS, 5-1 DAL 

Players & Stacks to Consider

Reminder: Showdown salaries are not available at the time of this writing. 

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

QB Dak Prescott: After a three-week stretch on the road, the Cowboys return home to AT&T Stadium where Prescott has played much, much better this season. In six home games, Prescott has posted a 16:2 TD:INT ratio while averaging 24.7 FPPG -- that’s more than 50% more FP than his road average of 16.2 FPPG to go along with a poor 9:8 TD:INT ratio across seven road performances. So, if the trend continues, Dak should be a strong captain candidate. Especially after taking into account that his top four receivers (Lamb, Cooper, Gallup, and Schultz) are 100% healthy while the backfield duo of Zeke Elliot and Tony Pollard deals with some nagging ailments. Also, here is your routine reminder that Washington has allowed the most FPPG to opposing QBs this season.

QB Taylor Heinicke: After being forced to miss week 15’s game, Heinicke has cleared COVID protocols and is set to rejoin the Washington huddle. While his last start (which was also against Dallas) did not turn out to be a performance to remember, Heinicke has been a serviceable fantasy asset this season, ranking out as the QB16 on a FPPG basis. His ability as a runner (22.8 rushing YPG) adds a nice little boost to his fantasy potential and Dallas has allowed the 12th most rushing YPG to QBs this season.

WR CeeDee Lamb: 67% of Lamb’s routes have either been out of the slot or on the right perimeter. Those are the two locations where Washington has given up the 2nd most FPPG to WRs. Lamb heads in averaging 11 targets/gm over Dallas’ previous three so this could be an opportunity for the second year receiver to put up a ceiling-type performance.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

RB Antonio Gibson: A stress fracture in his shin has pestered Gibson for much of the season but he has toughed it out and has managed to start every game for Washington up to this point. Now he’s dealing with a toe injury that held him out for a portion of their Tuesday night game against Philly, but ultimately he did come back in. Given the short week, we will need to monitor Gibson’s status heading into SNF but, for now, I’ll assume he toughs it out once again and suits up. While the efficiency hasn’t been there (3.7 YPC), Gibson has handled at least 19 touches in five of the last six games and his receiving volume continues to increase with JD McKissic on the IR combined with just a general lack of viable receiving targets throughout the WFT offense. Dallas shut him down two weeks ago but the potential volume will keep him firmly within FLEX consideration (and a leverage CPTN selection).

TE Dalton Schultz: Schultz may usually be third or fourth in the target pecking order but when Dak goes his way, those passes are being completed at a high 74.4% clip. Also, Schultz seems to be one of the players who has benefited from Prescott’s positive splits at home. In six home games, Schultz has caught four touchdowns and has averaged an additional 15.2 YPG and 56% more FPPG. Schultz has stifled to just one catch for four yards on three targets against Washington two weeks ago, but I’d consider that to be more of a fluke performance than anything.

Dallas D/ST: A short week for a Washington team that is recovering from a COVID outbreak and will be playing on the road in back-to-back games is not exactly the most promising recipe for success -- especially when you take into account that they’ll be facing one of the more opportunistic NFL defenses which is tied with the Colts for 1st in total takeaways. The Dallas D/ST has secured at least 16 FP in their last three games (22 FP vs. WAS two weeks ago).

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

TE Ricky Seals-Jones: Now that he’s three weeks removed from a hip injury, RSJ should be in line to play nearly 100% of snaps due to Logan Thomas residing on the IR. RSJ played 95% of snaps on Tuesday night an was targeted seven times, but only caught three passes for 29 yards. Taylor Heinicke will be an upgrade over Garrett Gilbert.

K Greg Zuerlein: He’s notched 10+ FP in four of Dallas’ last five games and with the potential for a 30+ point offensive performance to go along with the domed stadium environment, Zuerlein should be a strong value option to fill out lineups.

RB Jaret Patterson: Patterson’s outlook obviously rises significantly if Antonio Gibson were to miss this game, but don’t be surprised to see him have a relevant role even if Gibson plays. Patterson has not made the most of his limited touches but he was brought in for a goal line touchdown run and has rushed for 20+ yards in three of the last five games. If Gibson is ruled out, consider Patterson to be firmly within the FLEX conversation and an intriguing contrarian CPTN punt play.

Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*QB Dak Prescott + Two Dallas Receivers

*QB Taylor Heinicke, TE Ricky Seals-Jones, QB Dak Prescott

*WR CeeDee Lamb, K Greg Zuerlein, RB Antonio Gibson

*Dallas D/ST, RB Tony Pollard, TE Dalton Schultz

*RB Zeke Elliot, Dallas D/ST, K Greg Zuerlein

Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints (-3) | 38.5 O/U

(This line will likely change soon following the recent Taysom Hill news)

MIA: 17.8 implied points | NO: 20.8 implied points

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: QB Taysom Hill (D), QB Trevor Siemian (C19), WR Deonte Harris (Out), RB Philip Lindsay (Q), RB Malcolm Brown (IR - may return), WR Albert Wilson (Q), TE Adam Trautman (C19)

Score Prediction: MIA - 23, NO - 13

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 MIA, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 NO, 5-1 MIA

Players & Stacks to Consider

Reminder: Showdown salaries are not available at the time of this writing. 

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

WR Jaylen Waddle: After a week on the C19 list, Waddle is expected back on the field for MNF. Waddle, who runs 61% of his routes out of the slot, should avoid coverage from 2021 Pro Bowl Marshon Lattimore (6% slot coverage) as he will likely shadow WR DeVante Parker for much of this contest. Waddle has provided a strong 75.4% catch% this season while seeing 8.8 targets/gm. Expect him to lead Miami in targets and receiving yardage on Monday night.

RB Alvin Kamara: The Saints are set to start fourth string rookie Ian Book at quarterback in this game, so Miami’s defense will really only need to be super worried about stopping Kamara. Despite that fact, getting Kamara high value touches, and plenty of them will provide the Saints with their best chance to win this game. It won’t be easy sledding against Miami (8th fewest FPPG allowed to RBs), but Kamara is really the only obvious captain candidate for New Orleans and will likely have lower ownership following a week 15 dud performance against Tampa Bay’s stout run defense.

QB Tua Tagovailoa: While he is not posting crazy high fantasy numbers, Tua has been the definition of “serviceable” when it comes to a fantasy QB. He has completed an impressive 75.8% of his passes in his last four games while averaging 1.8 TDs/gm and 16.4 FPPG. The Saints defense ranks 1st in the NFL in run DVOA so it would seem to be a better idea to try to beat them through the air. Tagovailoa has only had his top three receivers (Waddle, Gesicki, Parker) on the field at the same time for six games this season so, with his best weapons at his disposal, he can reach optimal captain status with a quality performance.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

QB Ian Book: We can’t expect much from Book in his first career NFL start but, at the very least, he’ll be playing at home and is a guy who can provide some dual threat upside at the QB position. At Notre Dame, Book racked up 1,517 rushing yards and 17 rushing TDs across four season and he completed 63.8% of his passes for 7.8 YPA with a 72:20 TD:INT ratio. Depending on what his showdown salary ultimately comes out to be (I’m guessing around $8,000), he has a chance to be an optimal FLEX play (and leverage captain play) thanks to his rushing ability. Also, having a guy like Alvin Kamara who you can simply dump the ball off to in the flat is never a bad thing.

Dolphins D/ST: I know I just got finished making a case for Ian Book but the simple fact is he’s a non-heralded rookie QB making his first NFL start in a high pressure situation (primetime game + Saints playoff hopes on the line) against a defense that blitzes 38.7% of the time -- more than any other defense besides the Buccaneers. The Dolphins defense (12th in overall DVOA) is simply playing at a high level and enter MNF having averaged 13.5 FPPG over their last six.

TE Mike Gesicki: Tough match-up (Saints 10th fewest FPPG allowed to TEs) but not many tight ends in the league have a more solidified role in their offense than Gesicki, who brings a 19.1% TGT% to the table while seeing just under 7.0 targets/gm. If Tagovailoa avoids looking DeVante Parker’s way when he is locked up with Marshon Lattimore in coverage, then Gesicki is a likely candidate to receive a couple extra looks throughout this game.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

Saints D/ST: So the Saints defense is certainly legit in their own right. If shutting out Tom Brady last week doesn’t confirm that, I’m not sure what would. Even if they don’t win this game due to their unfortunate offensive dilemmas, Miami could struggle to crack 20 points themselves. This could easily end up being a 17-13 kinda defensive struggle where both offenses take their fair share of sacks and cough up some turnovers.

WR Tre’Quan Smith: The Saints have one of the more uninspiring set of receivers and with no real “alpha WR,” it’s hard to predict who a rookie QB may choose to hone in on. I imagine many will chase Marquez Callaway’s big game from last week, but I don’t mind going with someone like Tre’Quan Smith who sees more high-percentage intermediate targets (9.9-yard aDOT) and isn’t as reliant on a big play. Smith should be in on about 70% of snaps and, aside from Kamara, he’s my pick to lead the Saints in targets on MNF (but don’t hold me to that).

K Jason Sanders: Right now, this game screams “low-scoring defensive struggle” with a side of “field goal fest.” There are no wind/weather issues to worry about inside the Superdome and Sanders has been a reliable kicker throughout this season. He’s posted three games with 10 FP in three of the last five games. In a game where points may be at a premium, a guy who will be (I’m guessing) a little under $4,000 with double digit FP upside sounds just fine to me.

Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*WR Jaylen Waddle, QB Tua Tagovailoa, WR Tre’Quan Smith

*QB Tua Tagovailoa + Two Miami Pass Catchers

*RB Alvin Kamara, TE Mike Gesicki, K Jason Sanders

*Dolphins D/ST, RB Myles Gaskin, WR Jaylen Waddle

*QB Ian Book, WR Tre’Quan Smith, Saints D/ST

That will wrap us up for our lookahead at week 16's primetime match-ups! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck tonight!

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