By: Ryan Humphries

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Due to single-game format discrepancies between DraftKings and FanDuel, this article is more geared towards a DraftKings-focused GPP approach.

Cleveland Browns (-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers | 42 O/U

CLE: 22.3 implied points | PIT: 19.5 implied points

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: RB Kareem Hunt (Questionable)

Score Prediction: CLE - 20, PIT - 24

Game Preview: By all indications, this AFC North showdown will be the final time Big Ben suits up in front of Pittsburgh’s home crowd at Heinz Field. While controversy has surrounded Roethlisberger off the field, there is a strong chance that his accomplishments across his 18-year NFL career will land him a spot in the Hall of Fame -- perhaps not as a first ballot inductee, but likely at some point down the road after he hits HOF eligibility. There is a reason why Roethlisberger is eyeing retirement as he has looked every bit of being a 39-year-old quarterback who has suffered through his fair share of bumps and bruises. At times, Roethlisberger simply appears to be moving in slow motion in comparison to the 20-something-year-olds on defense who seem to fly around him in a completely different gear. This will certainly be a winnable game for Pittsburgh, but Cleveland does enter as three-point road favorites. Neither team has any expectations of making the postseason so this is essentially a “cosmetic” kinda game. The Steelers and Browns will be looking to play out their final two games, continue to gain some invaluable in-game experience, improve where they can, and then set their sights on the upcoming off-season where some major decisions will need to be made for both franchises. This is far from the juiciest Monday Night Football game that we've been presented with this season, but we can expect a hard-fought and closely contested match-up out in Pittsburgh this evening.

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Cleveland, 4-2 Pittsburgh

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

RB Nick Chubb: The Browns are getting back some major impact players off of the COVID-19 list -- one being starting left tackle Jedrick Willis Jr. who has missed the previous two games. That will provide a nice boost to the Cleveland running game and thus help put Nick Chubb firmly on the radar as a captain option in showdown lineups tonight. Kareem Hunt has a solid chance of returning from his ankle injury but, even if he does suit up, Chubb is a fairly safe bet to out-touch Hunt by a considerable margin. (Update: Hunt is inactive) Pittsburgh is missing several key pieces to its defensive front and opposing teams have been running wild as a result. Within the last five games, Pittsburgh has allowed RB fantasy totals of 18.6 DKFP (D’Onta Foreman), 38.2 DKFP (Dalvin Cook), 20.7 DKFP (Devonta Freeman), and 35.2 DKFP (35.2 DKFP). Chubb should be able to feast in this game.

WR Diontae Johnson: While he may not be putting up Cooper Kupp or Davante Adams-like numbers, few players have been as consistent in full PPR scoring formats as Diontae Johnson this season. On DraftKings, Johnson has just one game where he failed to secure double digit fantasy points (9.8 DKFP in week 15). His success stems from a lofty 10.3 target/gm average and a 27.9% target share, which ranks 6th in the NFL. The Browns do not present the softest pass defense by any stretch, but they have allowed the 13th most FPPG to perimeter WRs over the last month (Johnson - 92% perimeter routes).

QB Ben Roethlisberger: There is no question that Roethlisberger has posted some very pedestrian numbers this year as he has averaged only 240.9 YPG on a 65.2% completion rate to go along with a 20:8 TD:INT ratio. As a result, he has only two performances which have netted him more than 20 fantasy points this season. But if you’d like to take a ride down Narrative Street, perhaps we see a Steelers offensive game plan which revolves around Roethlisberger putting on one final big performance in front of the Steelers home crowd. The Steelers are not making the playoffs so there is no significant risk in letting Big Ben air it out 40-to-50 times in this game. Pittsburgh already averages the 4th most passes per game in the NFL and while that hasn’t led to great production, perhaps we see Roethlisberger turn back the clock and put on a vintage performance tonight.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

WR Jarvis Landry: He has missed quite a few games this season but in the last four games where Landry has suited up, he has commanded a respectable 8.3 targets/gm. Landry mostly runs out of the slot and should see plenty of high percentage throws on short-to-intermediate routes against Pittsburgh’s middling secondary.

RB Najee Harris: I’m not sure this is a spot where Harris will completely go off (CLE - 10th fewest FPPG allowed to RBs), but considering he rarely comes off the field and leads all NFL RBs by a wide margin with an 85.4% snap%, through volume alone Harris likely ends this game as an optimal FLEX play. Even if Roethlisberger throws all night, Harris should still be able to notch 20+ total touches as he ranks first among NFL RBs with 87 targets this season (5.8 targets/gm). A touchdown or two could push him towards optimal captain territory but, with his volume, he’s a good bet to land in the 15-to-20 DKFP territory.

TE Pat Freiermuth: After a one game absence with a concussion, Freiermuth enters MNF without an injury designation. Roethlisberger has developed a solid connection with Freiermuth (aka “Baby Gronk”) and he has commanded a 21.5% redzone target% resulting in seven redzone TDs. The Browns have been burned by opposing tight ends in recent weeks and the Steelers crowd bellows “MUUUUUUUUUUTH” whenever he catches a pass, so how can ya not like that?

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

WR Donovan Peoples-Jones: He’s about as boom-or-bust as it gets, especially with a banged up Baker Mayfield throwing to him, but DPJ’s lengthy 16.5-yard aDOT makes him a worthy flier for showdown lineups as he’ll need to just connect on one or two of those deep balls to return optimal FLEX-worthy value. Pittsburgh has allowed the 11th most FPPG to perimeter WRs which is where Peoples-Jones has ran 79% of his routes.

WR Ray-Ray McCloud III: McCloud has played 70% of snaps over the last month and has been working as the Steelers primary slot man. The slot is a point of weakness for the Browns defense as they have surrendered the 4th most FPPG to slot WRs this season. The floor is undeniably low for McCloud but he does have a pair of eight target games within his last three starts and will provide some nice salary relief at only $3,400 on DraftKings.

RB Kareem Hunt: Assuming he suits up, most people will still be very hesitant to play Hunt in showdown lineups tonight. The hesitation would be fair. Hunt has appeared in only two games and played 36 snaps since week six and the Browns would likely be cautious in his utilization considering they already have Nick Chubb and another capable backup RB in D’Ernest Johnson. However, Hunt has big play upside and has operated in a fairly even split with Nick Chubb when healthy. The Steelers have also given up the most FPPG to RBs over the last four weeks and if Hunt is anywhere close to 100% he may return value on 10-15 touches. He also won’t break the bank at a showdown salary of $5,400. Consider him a leverage play in GPPs.

Update: Hunt is inactive

Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*Nick Chubb, Ben Roethlisberger, Pat Freiermuth: If Hunt doesn’t eat into Chubb’s volume too much, he can run wild on this depleted Steelers front seven. The Browns O-line will also be mostly intact for this game as well, which is an obvious plus to Cleveland's run-heavy offensive approach.

*Diontae Johnson, Najee Harris, Jarvis Landry: You’ll have to hope for a ceiling game here but one could argue that Johnson provides the safest fantasy floor of any player in this game.

*Ben Roethlisberger, Diontae Johnson, Ray-Ray McCloud III: Can Big Ben put on one last memorable performance in front of the home crowd tonight? The game plan could easily dictate that. The Steelers honestly have nothing to lose in letting Roethlisberger chuck it from start to finish.

*Jarvis Landry, Baker Mayfield, Kareem Hunt: Landry provides a strong target floor but he’ll need Baker Mayfield to show up tonight as well. If that happens, we could see a CPTN Landry + FLEX Mayfield end as the optimal WR/QB stack.

*Donovan Peoples-Jones, Ben Roethlisberger, Chase Claypool: This is easily the riskiest stack in this segment, but a couple big connections on DPJ’s deep targets could result in him being a very low-owned optimal captain play. GPP only.

That will wrap us up with the Monday Night Football Preview! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck tonight!

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