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Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) | 53.5 O/U

Cardinals: 25.0 Implied Points | Cowboys: 28.5 Implied Points

Notable Skill Position Injuries: ARI QB Kyler Murray - Questionable (Brissett already announced as the starter)

Score Prediction: Cardinals - 23, Cowboys - 30

Single Game Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Cowboys, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Cardinals, 5-1 Cowboys

Players to Consider

Top Captains/MVPs & Core FLEX Plays 🔐

WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL: Lamb has had an excellent floor in his four healthy games, despite only scoring one touchdown thus far. Excluding week three when Lamb exited the game early after playing just seven snaps, Lamb is averaging 10.3 Targets/gm, and he has gone for at least 110 yards in three of four games. All of that volume will eventually result in more TDs, and he sets up well tonight versus a Cardinals secondary that is allowing the 5th-most YPG (80.6) to WR1s this season.

RB Javonte Williams, DAL: Williams has experienced a career resurgence in Dallas and heads into week nine as the RB7 in FPPG. He’s handling 18.5 Touches/gm this season, including 32 RedZone opportunities, which have resulted in nine total TDs. Williams has also forced an excellent 25.0% AvoidedTackle%, and he can expect him to improve even further upon that figure against a Cardinals defense that has posted a 35.3% AvoidedTackle%, which is by far the worst in the NFL.

TE Trey McBride, ARI: McBride has been interim QB Jacoby Brissett’s go-to weapon in Arizona’s last two games. In that stretch, with Brissett as the starter, McBride has seen a massive 32.3% Target% and has turned 24 targets into 18 receptions for 146 yards and three TDs. Dallas’ awful defense has actually been rather serviceable versus TEs, allowing the 12th-fewest FPPG to the position this season, but they’re still a subpar 21st in TE DVOA, and McBride is simply a matchup nightmare, and certainly not the type of prototypical tight end that the Cowboys have generally faced this season. With his monster redzone involvement (37.1% RedZone Target%), McBride hits both major checkboxes when it comes to high volume and strong touchdown equity in a game with a lofty 53.5 over/under.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain/MVP Options 🏆

QB Dak Prescott, DAL, and QB Jacoby Brissett, ARI: I’m not big on either QB as a captain/MVP target tonight, but both will clearly be strong FLEX plays in a game that boasts the highest total of any week 9 NFL matchup. Brissett would be the preferred QB option due to pricing and the fact that Dallas is allowing an NFL-high 26.4 FPPG to QBs this season. But, really, unless you’re rolling both QBs in the same lineup, you should just correlate with whoever you have at the CPT/MVP spot.

TE Jake Ferguson, DAL: Ferguson laid a big ole goose egg in week eight, but it was a day to forget for Dallas’ passing offense in general against a tough Denver defense. Dak Prescott passed for just 188 yards and threw a couple of picks against zero TDs. Ferguson had scored six TDs in his four games prior to last week, and still leads all NFL TEs in fantasy scoring this season despite the zero posted last week. We’ll fully anticipate him to get back on track against a Cardinals defense that plays a lot of high shell coverages and is content with allowing plenty of production in the short-to-intermediate passing game, where TEs typically thrive. Over their last four games, Arizona is allowing 75.3 YPG, 6.5 rec/gm, and 0.8 TDs/gm to the TE position.

RB Zonovan Knight, ARI: The Cardinals’ RB position has been a revolving door ever since James Conner went down in week three with a season-ending injury. But Zonovan “Bam” Knight has emerged as the primary RB in Arizona’s last couple of games, and will reportedly continue to be the RB1 this evening, expected to work ahead of both Michael Carter and Emari Demercado. Knight is very much a JAG (“just a guy”), but he is a good bet to handle around 15 touches this evening and, more importantly, he should see all of the goal line work. The matchup also doesn’t get much better as the Cowboys check in at 29th in rush DVOA and have allowed the 2nd-most adjusted FPPG to RBs this season.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers 💤

K Brandon Aubrey, DAL, and K Chad Ryland, ARI: In a domed matchup with a huge total where both offenses should be able to move the ball with relative ease, kickers will once again be solid, albeit unexciting, value FLEX options. Ryland has hit double-digit fantasy points in 5-of-7 games this season, with just two FG misses (100% on PATs) and a long of 57 yards. Aubrey has one of the biggest legs in football and already has a 64-yarder this season. He’s a perfect 16/16 on FGAs with just one missed PAT on the season.

RB Michael Carter, ARI: While Knight is the “RB1” for the time being, it also wouldn’t be a surprise if Carter handled double-digit touches tonight either. Carter is a more versatile RB than Knight and can mix in as a receiver, though his TD upside is capped with Knight being the presumed goal-line back.

WR Zay Jones, ARI: Jones is second on the team in targets (10) and AirYard% (27%) the last two weeks with Jacoby Brissett in at QB, trailing only Trey McBride in both categories. He’s going to be boom-or-bust but does have some big play upside against a Cowboys secondary that allows the 2nd-most FPPG to perimeter WRs (Jones: 82% PerimeterRoute%).

WR Michael Wilson, ARI: Wilson operates as the Cardinals’ primary slot WR, and he has played no less than 67% of the snaps in a game this season, and was up to an 82% snap% in the last game. Dallas has been softest against outside WRs, but they’re also allowing the 12th-most FPPG to slot WRs over their last four games. Wilson is a good bet to see around a handful of targets in this game, so he’ll be an appealing salary saver.

WR KaVonte Turpin, DAL: Turpin’s primary role for Dallas is being an electric kick return man, but he gets on the field for a fair amount of offensive snaps as well. He’s likely going to be out there for around 30-40% of snaps tonight and typically works out of the slot. The Cowboys usually like to manufacture Turpin a few touches per game, either as a runner out of the backfield or as a standard receiver. And the slot is where the Cardinals have really struggled this season. They’ve allowed the 8th-fewest FPPG to perimeter WRs, but the 2nd-most FPPG to slot WRs.

RB Jaydon Blue, DAL: Javonte Williams is still the bellcow back in this offense, but rookie Jaydon Blue has been handling more opportunities lately, with 16 touches and about a 20% snap% over the last two games. He’ll either need to get lucky with a long TD run or with some possible garbage time volume if the Cowboys hold a big lead late, but either scenario could happen in this game.

Stack Concepts 🥞

[*Player Name] represents captain/MVP play.

*WR CeeDee Lamb, QB Dak Prescott, WR KaVonte Turpin: As discussed, the volume has been elite for Lamb, but the touchdowns just haven’t been there. That will change sooner rather than later, perhaps beginning tonight. Lamb is pricey, but we’ll still want to pair him with QB Dak Prescott to complete the correlation stack. And, to save some salary while also getting another Cowboys pass catcher in the mix, we can roll the dice on Turpin.

*RB Javonte Williams, K Brandon Aubrey, RB Zonovan Knight: Perhaps this game flips the script and turns into a lower-scoring grind-it-out-on-the-ground type of game. That wouldn’t exactly be the first time an expected high-scoring shootout turns into a bit of a slog on the ground in a primetime game. Either way, Javonte Williams is an appealing CPT/MVP option, averaging over 90 scrimmage YPG with nine TDs on the season. RBs and their team’s kickers share decent correlation, so we’ll place K Brandon Aubrey in the FLEX and run it back with Williams’ counterpart, Bam Knight. The Cardinals' RB situation is a bit messy, but Knight should be the safest option, given his goal-line role.

*TE Trey McBride, QB Jacoby Brissett, RB Javonte Williams: Jacoby Brissett seems to understand the assignment... better than Kyler Murray anyway, which is to get the ball into McBride’s hands as much as possible, especially in the redzone. These two have shown a clear connection, so they’ll be one of the top QB + pass catcher duos to consider on this single-game slate. The most likely game script for this matchup is that the Cowboys lead for most/all of the game while the Cardinals play from behind. In that scenario, RB Javonte Williams would be the ideal bring-back option.

*QB Dak Prescott, WR CeeDee Lamb, TE Jake Ferguson: Standard CPT/MVP Prescott double-stack. Other DAL pass catchers to mix into CPT/MVP Prescott lineups (in order of preference): WR George Pickens, WR KaVonte Turpin, WR Jalen Tolbert, TE Luke Schoonmaker, RB Javonte Williams.

*QB Jacoby Brissett, TE Trey McBride, WR Michael Wilson: Standard CPT/MVP Brissett double-stack. Other ARI pass catchers to mix into CPT/MVP Brissett lineups (in order of preference): WR Marvin Harrison Jr., WR Zay Jones, TE Elijah Higgins, WR Greg Dortch, RB Michael Carter, RB Zonovan Knight, RB Emari Demercado.

*TE Jake Ferguson, QB Dak Prescott, TE Trey McBride: It’s an ideal spot for a bounce-back game following Ferguson’s zero last week. The Cardinals’ defense funnels passes underneath, directly to where Ferguson generally operates. Stack with Prescott, and why not run it back with the star tight end on the other side? A lot of touchdown equity exists between these two TEs.

*RB Zonovan Knight, K Chad Ryland, WR CeeDee Lamb: Perhaps the Cardinals somewhat surprise us by leading most/all of this game. In that scenario, Knight’s volume should increase significantly, and he will have also likely scored at least one touchdown. As mentioned, kickers work well for correlation purposes with their team’s RBs, so we’ll take Ryland just like we took Aubrey for the CPT/MVP Javonte Williams stack. Since Knight won’t break the bank at his 1.5x salary multiplier, we can afford to go with a primo bring-back Cowboys player with stud WR CeeDee Lamb.

Once again, if you have any questions, DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!