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Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars | 45.5 O/U

Chiefs: 24.5 Implied Points | Jaguars: 21.0 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: KC WR Xavier Worthy - Questionable (expected to play)

Score Prediction: Chiefs - 23, Jaguars - 20

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Chiefs, 4-2 Jags

Players to Consider

Top Captains/MVPs & Core FLEX Plays 🔐

QB Patrick Mahomes, KC: This is a bit of an ugly game to dissect, but we know that Mahomes is arguably the best floor play in this matchup and brings ample CPT/MVP upside to the table. He may no longer be considered the best QB in fantasy anymore, but he has had a strong season up to this point, ranking as the QB3 with 22.4 FPPG. The Chiefs have received little production from their running backs, so Mahomes has been doing some heavy lifting for this offense. Mahomes has averaged 35.5 pass attempts/gm with the Chiefs posting the 10th-highest PassPlay% (59.1%). Even though has has totaled just seven rushing yards over the last two games, Mahomes has been the team’s leading rusher with 130 yards on the ground (32.5 YPG) this season while averaging 5.9 YPC. Meanwhile, the Jags have faced the 2nd-highest opponent PassPlay% (65.7%) and the 3rd-most pass attempts/gm (39.0). There are going to be very few scenarios in which Mahomes *doesn’t* end up as an optimal play in this game, either as the CPT/MVP or FLEX.

RB Travis Etienne Jr., JAX: Following a down 2024 season, Etienne has stepped back into a featured back role this season and has had at least 17 opportunities (carries + targets) in all four games. His 60% snap% doesn’t scream “bellcow back” but he is easily tops on the team with a 27.0% Opportunity% (next-closest is Bhayshul Tuten at 9.1%). Etienne has also been exceptionally efficient with his carries, averaging 6.1 YPC (2nd among NFL RBs). Etienne also trails only Jonathan Taylor, James Cook, and Ashton Jeanty in yards after contact (200). The Chiefs have been stout against the pass (7th in pass DVOA) but not as strong against the run (23rd in rush DVOA). Etienne also averages +42.7% more FPPG in outdoor environments, and, with some fairly windy/gusty conditions expected in tonight’s game, perhaps the Jags place more of a focus on the running and short passing games this evening.

WR Xavier Worthy, KC: Worthy did get pinned with a “questionable” injury tag yesterday after his ankle reportedly swelled up on the flight to Jacksonville, but that was seemingly a precautionary designation, and he is expected to play tonight after logging full practices all week. After exiting the week one game with a friendly-fire shoulder injury whilst colliding with Travis Kelce on the Chiefs’ opening series, Worthy returned to log his first full game of the season in week four. He only played 59% of the snaps, but he was the clear No. 1 target for Mahomes. Worthy’s eight targets resulted in a team-leading 22.9% Target% and, perhaps more notably, he commanded a massive 55.1% AirYard% with an aDOT (average depth of target) of 17.0 yards. That resulted in five catches for 83 yards, and Worthy also took two carries for 38 additional yards. Worthy handles some routes out of the slot but will align on the perimeter for roughly 2/3rds of the Chiefs’ passing plays. That could be where he does most of his damage tonight as the Jags have allowed the 2nd-most FPPG to perimeter WRs. With WR Rashee Rice (suspension) not eligible to return for a couple more games and TE Travis Kelce losing a step to Father Time, Worthy should continue to command WR1 usage in a pass-first offense.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain/MVP Options 🏆

WR Brian Thomas Jr., JAX: Following a stellar rookie campaign, it’s been a pretty brutal season for Brian Thomas Jr. thus far. The volume has been solid as BTJ has commanded a team-leading 8.0 Targets/gm with a 23.0% Target% and 36.9% AirYard%. However, the efficiency has been truly awful. Thomas has caught just 12 of his 32 targets, resulting in a 37.5% Catch%. However, in his defense, 10 of his targets have been deemed “uncatchable,” but his 54.5% adjusted Catch% (percentage of a player's catchable targets that they converted into a reception) is still an ugly and inefficient figure. For reference, Thomas had a 65.4% Catch% and 90.6% adjusted Catch% in his rookie season. This isn’t the best spot for QB Trevor Lawrence and BTJ to get things going on the right track -- the Chiefs are 7th in pass DVOA and 6th in WR1 DVOA. But we have to assume that the inefficiency will begin to turn around for the second-year WR and, on a single-game slate, we have to keep a WR1 on the radar. Especially considering that the Jags are 3.5-point home underdogs and may need to lean pass-heavy in this game.

QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX: Lawrence has yet to come close to living up to the hype that led to him being the No. 1 overall selection in the 2021 NFL Draft. This season certainly hasn’t improved many opinions on him, and he is firmly in the bottom half of the league in every major QB metric. That being said, in a game without a ton of standout fantasy studs, Lawrence will land on the FLEX and contrarian CPT/MVP radar simply due to QBs always being viable options in single-game DFS formats. He ranks 2nd, only to Patrick Mahomes, in consensus projections for this game. If there is one positive to point out with Lawrence, it’s that he has taken just three sacks this season, resulting in an NFL-low (and best) 2.04% Sack%. The Chiefs' defense has ranked mid-pack with a 19.4% Pressure% despite blitzing at the 7th-highest rate (32.6%). So Lawrence should routinely have plenty of time to sit in the pocket and throw the ball [hopefully more accurately than usual] tonight.

WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, KC: It’s not a ringing endorsement, but Smith-Schuster has led the Chiefs’ WR group with a 76% Snap% this season and has at least 9.5 PPR FP in three games. Even with Xavier Worthy returning last week and rookie WR Jalen Royals making his season debut, Smith-Schuster still logged a quality 78% snap% in week four and was second on the team (behind Worthy) with six targets. His 83.0% RouteParticipation% in week four was also a season high. He runs around half of his routes out of the slot, which will often lead to a tougher matchup versus the Jaguars' primary slot CB Jourdan Lewis. But in terms of catch rate (77.8%) and adjusted catch rate (100.0%), JuJu Smith-Schuster has been Mahomes’ most sure-handed receiver, which often leads to steady target volume. A handful of catches with a possible touchdown would likely be enough for Smith-Schuster to crack the optimal lineup in this game.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers 💤

WR Travis Hunter, JAX: Four games into his rookie campaign, Hunter has not been the two-way phenom that most predicted he’d be. He owns a modest 15.1% Target% and 15.3% AirYard% while playing only 58% of the snaps. That being said, Hunter will still probably have a few spike weeks this season, and this Jags coaching staff should be looking for more ways to get the ball into his hands. The Chiefs have also rated poorly versus opposing WR2s with a 25th WR2 DVOA ranking. Perhaps this is the game where Hunter makes a sizable impact.

K Harrison Butker, KC and K Cam Little, JAX: 50+ yarders won’t be easy to hit tonight with some 10 mph winds and 20+ mph gusts expected. But games with a mid-40s over/under do tend to see more FGs than TDs, so both kickers are decent FLEX value options once again. Even with multiple missed FGs for both guys, Butker and Little do rank 6th and 11th in kicker FPPG, respectively.

WR Tyquan Thornton, KC: The return of Xavier Worthy seemingly has the most negative impact on Thornton’s playing time. He went from at least a 72% snap% in the first three games down to a 34% snap% last week. He did bring in an 11-yard touchdown in week four, but that was his lone catch of the day on two targets. That said, Thornton is typically targeted way down the field (24.5-yard aDOT) and has made some impressive plays on those deep shots this season. So, he will still have some boom-or-bust appeal as a cheap FLEX option even if he’s not guaranteed many snaps or targets.

TE Brenton Strange, JAX: Strange has scored at least 9.9 PPR fantasy points in three games this season and is 2nd on the team with a 16.6% Target%. Unfortunately, it’s just a brutal matchup versus a Chiefs defense that has allowed the 3rd-fewest adjusted FPPG to TEs and ranks 3rd in TE DVOA. Still, Strange has been a reliable receiver (82.6% Catch%), he has played 81% of the offensive snaps with an 81.8% RouteParticipation% (2nd on the team behind only BTJ), and will still likely see a handful of targets in this game.

Chiefs D/ST and Jags D/ST: It’s not exciting, but both D/STs make for sensible value FLEX “plays.” The Jags D/ST has been excellent, ranking 1st with 11.5 FPPG, but they’ve also faced some poor offenses up to this point. Meanwhile, the Chiefs D/ST has only one game of scoring double-digit fantasy points, but that came against a lackluster Giants offense -- their other three games were versus more capable offenses (Chargers, Eagles, and Ravens). So this is a decent spot for them to find success against a struggling QB in Trevor Lawrence.

RB Kareem Hunt, KC: As most are probably aware, this Chiefs’ backfield is a mess of a committee. But if there is one RB in the group who I’d feel best about finding the endzone, it’d be Kareem Hunt. Hunt seems to be the favored short-yardage back and, even though Isiah Pacheco brought in an eight-yard receiving TD last week, Hunt has been given more consistent usage in the redzone.

WR Parker Washington, JAX: After playing only a quarter of the snaps in weeks one and two, Washington has seen increased snaps in the last two games (71% snap% Wk3, 86% Snap% Wk4), but that was almost certainly due to Dyami Brown exiting the week three game early and missing week four entirely due to a shoulder injury. However, Washington did draw 11 targets in week three, so Trevor Lawrence has looked his way when he’s been out there at times. Washington also leads the Jags receivers with a 22.2% ExplosiveCatch%. So, even if his snaps are likely to go down with Brown back in the mix, he is a big-play candidate.

RB Brashard Smith, KC: Smith is the Chiefs’ RB who is perhaps the most intriguing gamble. He played a season-high 26% of the snaps last week and was given eight opportunities (four carries + four targets) on his 19 total offensive snaps. Perhaps, due to Pacheco and Hunt’s uninspired and inefficient play, Smith could continue to eat more into the backfield usage. Smith has also operated as the Chiefs’ kickoff returner, so he has some low-end TD potential in that regard.

RB Bhayshul Tuten, JAX: Barring an injury to Travis Etienne Jr., Tuten is going to be held to a reserve role. But he is a talented rookie who could see 5-10 touches with a shot at a TD. Tuten has punched in a pair of TDs this season.

WR Dyami Brown, JAX: Brown was forced out of the Jags’ week three game due to a shoulder injury, which led to him sitting out last week. But he is off the injury report heading into tonight’s game. Brown logged at 71% snap% and 80.6% RouteParticipation% in week one, followed by an 80% snap% and 86.4% RouteParticipation% in week two. So, barring a shakeup or if Travis Hunter becomes considerably more involved, Brown is likely going to play the second-most snaps among Jags WRs.

RB LeQuint Allen Jr., JAX: Allen has seen some usage in long yardage situations and has played as high as a 30% snap% (week 3) this season. The opportunities are limited, barring injury to Etienne or Tuten, but he’s still a potential dart throw to consider in large field GPPs if you’re looking to build a unique and aggressive lineup.

Stack Concepts 🥞

[*Player Name] represents captain/MVP play.

*QB Patrick Mahomes, WR Xaiver Worthy, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster: Standard CPT/MVP Mahomes double-stack. Worthy should be close to a lock in any CPT/MVP Mahomes lineups, but any remaining stack pieces can be interchangeable. Other Chiefs pass catchers to mix into CPT/MVP Mahomes lineups (in order of preference): TE Travis Kelce, WR Hollywood Brown, WR Tyquan Thornton, RB Isiah Pacheco, RB Brashard Smith, RB Kareem Hunt, WR Jalen Royals, TE Noah Gray.

*RB Travis Etienne Jr., QB Patrick Mahomes, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster: If the Jags make this a competitive game (or go on to win), Etienne will be a primary reason why. The Chiefs’ run defense has not looked great this season, and the volume should remain solid (15-20 touch range) for ETN. We’ll run it back with a Mahomes/Smith-Schuster stack in the FLEX.

*WR Xavier Worthy, QB Patrick Mahomes, WR Dyami Brown: Worthy looked great in his week four return and led the team in first-read targets despite playing just under 60% of the offensive snaps. As long as there is no troubling news concerning his ankle injury ahead of kickoff, he should be a major factor in the Chiefs’ offense once again. All CPT/MVP Worthy lineups should probably be paired with Mahomes in the FLEX. It’s an expensive duo, so we’ll save some salary with a cheap bring-back in WR Dyami Brown, who, as mentioned, was playing around 75% of the snaps before sustaining a shoulder injury in week three.

*WR Brian Thomas Jr., QB Trevor Lawrence, RB Kareem Hunt: We discussed BTJ’s woeful receiving inefficiency above, but the usage/target volume has still been strong. He’ll likely get things going sooner rather than later, perhaps beginning in a primetime matchup at home tonight. We’ll want to stack Trevor Lawrence in most CPT/MVP Thomas lineups and run it back with an affordable Kareem Hunt on the other side. We can’t expect much yardage out of Hunt, but perhaps he punches in a TD or two in the redzone, similar to Rhamondre Stevenson’s performance last night on Sunday Night Football.

*QB Trevor Lawrence, WR Brian Thomas Jr., WR Dyami Brown: Standard CPT/MVP Lawrence double-stack. Mahomes is going to be the considerably more popular QB to play in this game, especially when it comes to CPT/MVP ownership. So this Lawrence double-stack approach is intriguing from a contrarian angle. Brian Thomas Jr. should be a near-lock in any CPT/MVP Lawrence lineups, but the second receiver is pretty flexible, similar to the CPT/MVP Mahomes stack concept. Other Jags pass catchers to consider in CPT/MVP Lawrence lineups (in order of preference): WR Travis Hunter, TE Brenton Strange, RB Travis Etienne Jr., WR Parker Washington, TE Hunter Long, RB Bhayshul Tuten, RB LeQuint Allen Jr.

*WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, QB Patrick Mahomes, RB Travis Etienne Jr.: If you’re searching for a value CPT/MVP, JuJu Smith-Schuster makes a solid amount of sense based on his usage and reliability discussed above in his player spotlight. His affordability makes it easy to fit in high-end plays like Mahomes and Etienne in the FLEX while still leaving ample room for one or two more pricier FLEX plays. It’s a riskier approach, and one that will likely need one or two Smith-Schuster TDs to work. But something tells me that this game is going to be a little sloppy, so a lineup approach like this may be the ticket to a big takedown.

Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!