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Washington Commanders at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5) | 47.5 O/U

Commanders: 18.5 Implied Points | Chiefs: 29.0 Implied Points

Notable Skill Position Injuries: WAS QB Jayden Daniels - OUT, WAS K Matt Gay - OUT

Score Prediction: Commanders - 20, Chiefs - 30

Single Game Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Chiefs, 3-3 Balanced, 5-1 Chiefs, 4-2 Commanders

Players to Consider

Top Captains/MVPs & Core FLEX Plays 🔐

QB Patrick Mahomes, KC: The Mahomes resurgence continues as he heads into week eight as the QB1 in FPPG. He’s been most impressive at home, where he owns an 11:1 TD:INT ratio. And through seven games, Mahomes’ 250 yards rushing are only 21 fewer than the team's rushing leader, Isiah Pacheco (271 rush yards). Mahomes also got a sizable weapons upgrade with the return of top WR Rashee Rice last week. The Commanders are a subpar 20th in pass DVOA and have allowed the 6th-most adjusted FPPG to QBs this season. The only real concern for Mahomes is if the Jayden Daniels-less Commanders can keep this game competitive as 10.5-point underdogs. However, even in some blowout game scripts, we’ve seen Mahomes come through with excellent fantasy scores on multiple occasions this season.

WR Rashee Rice, KC: Rice wasted no time stepping back into the WR1 role following his six-game suspension. In his season debut last week, Rice’s 10 targets were double that of the next-closest Chiefs receiver, and four of those 10 targets came in the redzone, which led to a pair of touchdowns. It’s worth noting that Rice saw all of these targets while playing just 33 snaps (41% snap%). His lack of snaps was likely due to a combination of the game being a blowout and the simple fact that he has missed so much time, between his six-game suspension this season and his rehab from an LCL tear that he sustained early last season. But, according to HC Andy Reid, Rice isn’t expected to face any notable limitations as he is in good health, so the 33 snaps played last week were likely more due to the blowout factor. I’d be surprised if he isn’t out there for closer to 70% of the snaps tonight. Rice ran 93% of his routes either out of the slot (40%) or left perimeter (53%) last week, which is where the Commanders have been most vulnerable this season. The Commanders also check in at a poor 25th in WR1 DVOA, so there is not much to be concerned about in the way of matchups.

WR Deebo Samuel, WAS: With the Commanders being significant underdogs tonight, it makes sense to target Washington pass catchers in what will likely be a trailing game script. The Commanders do get WR Terry McLaurin back from a four-game injury absence this evening, but Deebo Samuel is the more appealing WAS receiver to target, and I believe McLaurin’s return could help take some defensive attention off of Samuel, as opposed to being a negative to his DFS potential. In two games with Marcus Mariota filling in at QB for an injured Jayden Daniels, Samuel has led the team with a 21.4% Target%. Samuel has also drawn a 25.0% RedZone Target% this season. The Chiefs have been solid against the pass, ranking 10th in pass DVOA, though they have allowed the 12th-most FPOE (fantasy points over expected) to WRs over their last four games.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain/MVP Options 🏆

QB Marcus Mariota, WAS: Mariota has filled in well in two previous starts this season, putting up 21.3 FP versus the Raiders in week three and 17.2 FP versus the Falcons in week two. It’s nice that the Commanders’ offensive system doesn’t seem to change much with Mariota at the helm, as opposed to Daniels -- Mariota has shown the ability to add some real value with his legs, just as Daniels does, and he has put up 94 rushing yards and a TD on 10 attempts this season. Mariota’s ability as a runner could help boost his DFS floor and ceiling tonight, as the Chiefs have allowed the 4th-most rushing YPG to QBs. And, while the Chiefs have not allowed a ton of production through the air, they have given up a 74.5% completion% over their last four games, so it could be a decent night for Mariota as a passer as well.

WR Xavier Worthy, KC: Worthy’s upside takes a hit with Rice back in the mix, but he’s still a home run hitter who can take any catch in space to the house with his world-class speed. It’s tough to gauge too much on last week’s game with Rice returning, as Worthy only logged a 59% snap% during the Chiefs’ 31-0 blowout victory. But he was 2nd on the team with a 69.4% RouteParticipation% in that game, so it’s not as if he’s going to become an afterthought with Rice’s return. Worthy has also run the most routes out of the slot, which is a plus in this game as the Commanders have allowed the 9th-most FPPG to slot WRs this season and THE most FPPG to slot WRs over the last four weeks.

TE Travis Kelce, KC: As expected, Travis Kelce continues to decline in terms of fantasy relevancy, but he has still done enough to qualify as the TE8 in PPR FPPG through seven weeks. He draws a very positive matchup versus a Washington defense that ranks 31st in TE DVOA and has allowed +76% more FPPG to the position when playing on the road.

RB Isiah Pacheco, KC: It’s tough to be overly excited about any RB in this game, but that doesn’t mean the position can be ignored on a single-game slate. Pacheco is showing signs of improvement, both as a runner and in terms of workload share. He played a season-high 77% of the snaps in week six and then scored his first rushing TD in week seven. Pacheco has also posted an 18.2% Avoided Tackle Rate thus far this season, which is currently a career best, and Washington has allowed the 5th-highest Avoided Tackle Rate (24.1%) to opposing rushers this season. The Chiefs should be moving the ball with relative ease tonight, and if Pacheco has laid claim to the primary short-yardage/goal-line RB role, then he could be a great mid-range option in this game.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers 💤

K Harrison Butker, KC: With Commanders’ kicker Matt Gay ruled out and backup kicker Matthew Wright not in the player pool on either DraftKings or FanDuel, Butker will be the only kicker option to choose from this evening. Butker has had accuracy issues this season, with three missed FGs and three missed PATs, but he still sets up as a worthy value option, especially considering that the Chiefs have a near-30 implied point total. As far as the weather goes in Kansas City this evening, there could be some rain during the game, but it’s expected to be very light and not overly impactful. Winds should also stay around 5 mph.

Chiefs D/ST: The Chiefs D/ST is the clear option between the two D/STs in this game. The Commanders will obviously be without star QB Jayden Daniels, and the likelihood of Washington playing from behind just opens up the opportunity for more sacks, INTs, and defensive TDs for the Chiefs. This KC defense has also been very aggressive this season, blitzing at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL (30.6% Blitz%).

RB Brashard Smith, KC: Smith had a mini-breakout performance last week. His efficiency wasn’t great, but he saw a season-high 19 opportunities head his way with 14 rush attempts and five targets. Most of his work came in garbage time last week, but he could be taking over as the preferred backfield option on passing downs, and he has also received nine redzone opportunities this season. If there is significant garbage time in this game, Smith could soak up some additional usage. But he is an intriguing option in Chiefs-heavy builds even if you believe the game stays competitive.

RB Jeremy McNichols, WAS: The volume for McNichols may not be strong, but he is the preferred back on passing downs and hurry-up situations. In limited opportunities this season, McNichols has put up some sneaky-good advanced stats, including a monster 46.7% Avoided Tackle Rate. And, if the Commanders are playing from behind for most/all of this game, he is likely going to be out there for around 40% of the snaps.

WR Tyquan Thornton, KC: Thornton proved to be a real playmaker in the games that both Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice missed earlier this season. He has since been relegated to more of a specialty/reserve role, but he still saw a couple of targets last week, while reeling in a big 39-yard catch, while playing a third of the snaps. Among all NFL players with at least 25 targets this season, Thornton easily has the longest aDOT (average depth of target) at 25.0 yards downfield. So he doesn’t necessarily need significant volume to break off a huge chunk play or two. The floor is still a big fat goose egg, but the chance at a long TD is also there. The Commanders have allowed the 6th-highest Explosive Play Rate this season, and the ability to create explosive plays is essentially the sole reason Thornton gets on the field.

WR Chris Moore, WAS: Moore is nothing more than a potential WR3 now that McLaurin and Samuel are both back healthy. Still, in a positive game script for the Commanders’ passing attack, that could mean that Moore finds his way onto the field for around 40-50% of the snaps, which could lead to a few targets.

TE Noah Gray, KC: Gray has quietly played 55% of the snaps this season, and has a decent 51.0% RouteParticipation%. That has only resulted in nine receptions on 16 targets for 75 yards and no TDs. However, Gray did score five TDs a season ago and isn’t out of the picture for a random TD in this game, given the Commanders’ weakness versus TEs.

No stack concepts section for this game, but we’ll get that back online for TNF!

Once again, if you have any questions, DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!