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Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) at Las Vegas Raiders | 50.5 O/U

Cowboys: 27.0 Implied Points | Raiders: 23.5 Implied Points

Notable Skill Position Injuries: None

Score Prediction: Cowboys - 30, Raiders - 24

Single Game Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Cowboys, 3-3 Balanced, 5-1 Cowboys, 4-2 Raiders

Players to Consider

Top Captains/MVPs & Core FLEX Plays 🔐

RB Ashton Jeanty, LV: There are quite a few captain/MVP-worthy plays in this game, which is both a good thing and a bad thing. On one hand, I don’t see CPT/MVP ownership getting too crazy for any one player, but it’s also going to leave us with some tough decisions when it comes to lineup construction. That said, we’ll lead off with Ashton Jeanty. If the Raiders are going to pull off the slight upset as home underdogs tonight, given their ugly passing attack, Jeanty will have to carry a sizable workload. He’s been the RB10 since week four and heads into this game playing 87+% of the snaps in back-to-back weeks. The Raiders' O-Line has not provided much help for Jeanty, who is averaging a poor 1.8 yards before contact. However, Jeanty has averaged 2.8 yards after contact, which is the 10th-best mark in the NFL. And, more good news [for Jeanty] -- the Cowboys have allowed 2.8 yards before contact, which is the 4th-worst/highest in the NFL. Dallas is also 29th in rush DVOA and has allowed the 3rd-most adjusted FPPG to RBs. If the Raiders are smart, they’ll give Jeanty a minimum of 20 touches tonight. And, while he may get stuffed on quite a few of his runs, simply giving him enough opportunities so that he can eventually break through with some big, game-changing plays while keeping the Cowboys’ potent offense off the field would seem like a logical game plan.

WR George Pickens, DAL: While CeeDee Lamb is viewed as the more talented player in this high-level Dallas WR duo, it’s been George Pickens who has been the more productive option for fantasy purposes. Pickens ranks as the WR7 on a FPPG basis, while Lamb checks in at WR11. Obviously, Lamb is no slouch, but Pickens has been just a bit more reliable, especially when it comes to finding paydirt. But Pickens should also draw the most favorable coverage tonight. He has run just under 60% of his routes on the left perimeter. That should match him up with Raiders CBs Darien Porter and Kyu Blu Kelly, who have both spent most of their time manning that side of the field this season. The Raiders have ultimately given up the 2nd most FPPG to left perimeter WRs this season. Meanwhile, they’ve been very stout versus RWRs (4th fewest FPPG allowed) and middle-of-the-pack against the slot (15th-most FPPG allowed). When Pickens has a big game, they really tend to be BIG games, and he’s popped for a couple of ceiling performances this season. This is as good a spot as any for another highly productive night.

TE Brock Bowers, LV: Bowers had one of the best tight end performances we’ve seen in recent years back in week nine versus the Jags, when he caught 12-of-13 targets for 127 yards and three TDs… and he even took one carry for six yards. While the sledding was much tougher against a stout Denver defense last week, Bowers only seeing three targets, resulting in one catch for 31 yards, is about as inexcusable as it gets. And it wasn’t as if he was injured and played limited snaps. His 83% snap% in week 10 matched a season-high. Much like getting the ball into Ashton Jeanty’s hands 20+ times should be a priority for Las Vegas tonight, so should delivering Bowers 10+ targets. While the Cowboys haven’t allowed a ton of production to TEs this season, they are a poor 25th in TE DVOA and have allowed solid games to guys like Trey McBride, Zach Ertz, and Mason Taylor in recent games. If QB Geno Smith can be halfway competent tonight, Bowers should get back to being a massive factor.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain/MVP Options 🏆

WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL: While I’m not expecting a ceiling game, mostly for the reasons outlined in the Pickens spotlight above (Raiders are solid versus the slot, and stout versus the right perimeter -- two areas where Lamb has run around 80% of his routes), that doesn’t mean we should be completely off of Lamb tonight. In the five full games that Lamb has played this season, he has commanded a team-leading 29.2% Target% and 43.5% AirYard% while averaging 18.1 PPR FPPG. We’re still waiting on the positive touchdown regression to kick in, as Lamb has only found the endzone once in five-and-a-quarter games this season. Whether that happens tonight or not, Lamb should still step in as a high-floor play, and he’s certainly a great FLEX option with CPT/MVP upside.

QB Dak Prescott, DAL: Prescott has been the QB5 in FPPG since week four, and, outside of a dud against a stingy Broncos D, he has scored at least 16.4 FP in his remaining previous five games. The Raiders are giving up the 12th-fewest adjusted FPPG to QBs this season, but Prescott has an elite supporting cast around him and, with the Cowboys owning a 27.0 implied point total, he should be a very safe FLEX target with potential to pop for a CPT/MVP-worthy performance.

WR Javonte Williams, DAL: The Raiders have been a middling run defense, ranking 17th in rush DVOA, and are allowing the 15th-fewest adjusted FPPG to RBs. But Javonte Williams, the RB9 in FPPG this season, has handled steady volume all year, averaging 18.2 touches/gm, and he’s had an excellent role in the redzone, where he has had 36 opportunities resulting in nine TDs. Williams has also been stuffed on just 12.2% of his runs this season, which is the 7th-lowest mark among qualified RBs. The Raiders have excelled in stuffing runs -- their 23.0% Stuffed Run Rate is the 4th-best in the NFL. But, as long as the Cowboys' O-Line, which ranks 6th in adjusted line yards, continues to do its thing, Williams has plenty of appeal in this matchup. It’s also worth noting that Williams has the best ATTD (anytime touchdown) odds of any player in this game at -180.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers 💤

WR Tre Tucker, LV: Tucker is a little pricey for this section, but he’s also not exactly overly expensive either. Outside of his week three explosion game (8-145-3 receiving line), Tucker has not broken through for any other notable performances. But, with Jakobi Meyers out of the picture, Tucker is the de facto WR1, and he’s coming off a week 10 game where he played 100% of the snaps. The Cowboys have allowed the 2nd-most FPPG to perimeter WRs (Tucker: 80% PerimeterRoute%), so it’s clearly a prime matchup. Unfortunately, we’re counting on Geno Smith to be a serviceable passer if we have any hope for Tucker to have a solid performance. That’s a big ask, but perhaps Geno can find a rhythm against one of the NFL’s worst secondaries.

K Brandon Aubrey, DAL, and K Daniel Carlson, LV: This is a domed matchup with a 50+ over/under, so kickers are firmly in play as value FLEX options. Aubrey would seemingly be the clear choice if you’re looking to go with one kicker in a lineup, but while Carlson is not attached to as good an offense as the Cowboys, he does have as many games scoring double-digit fantasy points as Aubrey (three) this season.

WR Ryan Flournoy, DAL: Flournoy seems to have leapfrogged Jalen Tolbert as the Cowboys’ WR3. He has played 79 snaps over the last two games, compared to just 21 snaps for Tolbert in that same span. He’ll be far down the target pecking order behind Lamb, Pickens, and TE Jake Ferguson, but if he’s still going to be out there for around 50-60% of the offensive snaps, he’s worth keeping on the “FLEX filler” radar.

TE Michael Mayer, LV: With the Raiders limited on WR talent, Mayer has been seeing the field quite a bit, even with Brock Bowers being “the guy” at the TE position. If recent games are any indication, Mayer will play around 60-80% of the offensive snaps tonight and, as discussed in the Bowers spotlight, Dallas is not overly stout versus the TE position.

WR Tyler Lockett, LV: Lockett is one of the more intriguing cheap plays in this game. He’s been with the Raiders for two games now. He played just 30% of the snaps in week nine, failing to catch his lone target. But that jumped up to a 57% snap% last week, resulting in six targets, five receptions, and 44 yards. Lockett may be well past his prime, but he provides some much-needed veteran experience to a young and thin Raiders WR room. He’ll run mostly out of the slot tonight, which is where the Cowboys’ secondary has been its “strongest.” But they’re still allowing the 16th-most FPPG to slot WRs over the last eight weeks, so they’re not exactly stout there either.

WR KaVontae Turpin, DAL: Turpin is nothing more than a gadget guy whose main role is to return kicks (which he does very well). But he’s generally going to play 20-40% of the snaps, and the Cowboys usually try to manufacture a few offensive touches per game. If he can find some space, the speedy but undersized receiver can break loose for a big play. But that’s a big “if”.

WR Dont’e Thornton Jr., LV: Thornton, a fourth-round rookie out of Tennessee, has not made much of an impact this season, catching just 6-of-21 targets for 98 yards. But, while he may not be an overly polished receiver, this guy is 6’5” and runs a 4.30 40-yard dash. The Raiders have clearly tried to get him involved as a deep threat, as he leads the team with a 16.4-yard aDOT (average depth of target). Thornton is also likely to be out there for the majority of snaps with the departure of Jakobi Meyers factored in. He played 62% of the snaps last week and 86% of the snaps in week seven (Meyers was out that game). The Cowboys have also allowed the 7th-most explosive catches this season, so who knows, perhaps Thornton can finally reel in a long TD pass tonight.

RB Jaydon Blue, DAL: Blue is still firmly behind Javonte Williams on the depth chart, but in the last two games, he has been active, he has played 20% of the snaps while combining for 16 touches. If you believe there could be a decent amount of garbage time in this game, Blue makes for a sensible punt, especially in onslaught 5-1 Cowboys lineups.

WR Jack Bech, LV: Another Raiders WR dart throw. Although Bech’s 23% snap% from last week isn’t all too inspiring. He seems to be a fairly distant WR4 option behind Tucker, Lockett, and Thornton. With Las Vegas also playing two TEs regularly, there just isn’t a ton of opportunity left over for Bech. Still, on a single-game slate, players like this can make an impact on limited targets/touches.

I’m a little short on time today, so I won’t have any stack recommendations this time. I’ll get the “Stack Concepts” section back online for Thursday night’s game! 

Once again, if you have any questions, DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!