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NFL Prop & DFS Shows w/ Tyler Wiemann

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Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-1.5) | 45.5 O/U

Eagles: 22.0 Implied Points | Packers: 23.5 Implied Points

Notable Skill Position Injuries: GB TE Tucker Kraft - OUT/IR, GB WR Jayden Reed - OUT/IR, GB WR Matthew Golden - Questionable, GB WR Dontayvion Wicks - Questionable, GB WR Savion Williams - Questionable

Score Prediction: Eagles - 23, Packers -24

Single Game Roster Construction (in order of preference): 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Packers, 4-2 Eagles, 5-1 Packers

Players to Consider

Top Captains/MVPs & Core FLEX Plays 🔐

QB Jalen Hurts, PHI: Hurts heads into this huge primetime game as the QB4 in FPPG scoring this season, and he has scored at least 19.4 FP in all but one game this season. Hurts has done this in spite of experiencing some regression in the rushing game -- after scoring 29 rush TDs and averaging nearly 40 rush YPG over the last two seasons, he has just five rush TDs and 25.9 rush YPG through eight games this season. Hurts has posted multiple touchdown passes in five of the last six games, including seven pass TDs over the last two games, and he’ll get top receiving weapon AJ Brown back in the mix following his week eight absence. The matchup is tough as the Packers rank 9th in pass DVOA and have allowed the 8th-fewest adjusted FPPG to QBs, but Hurts has excelled in tougher matchups this season and, with the Eagles being rare underdogs, they should have to stay aggressive throughout this game.

RB Josh Jacobs, GB: Since week four, Josh Jacobs trails only Jonathan Taylor and Christian McCaffrey in RB FPPG. He has punched in eight touchdowns in that span while handling over 20 touches/gm. With numerous injuries to the Packers’ WR group, along with the season-ending ACL tear for star TE Tucker Kraft, Josh Jacobs’ workhorse role could grow even more, especially as a receiving option out of the backfield. The Eagles' run defense has been nothing special -- they’re allowing the 10th-most adjusted FPPG to RBs and check in at a subpar 24th in rush DVOA. Jacobs is, by far, the best bet to score a touchdown in this game, and leads all players with -200 ATTD (anytime touchdown) odds.

WR Romeo Doubs, GB: Doubs should be another Packers player who will need to take on an expanded role due to injuries. As mentioned, Tucker Kraft is out for the season, Jayden Reed remains on IR, and three other Green Bay WRs (Golden, Wicks, and S. Williams) are currently questionable to suit up tonight. Doubs is coming off a week nine performance where he saw a season-high 10 targets, which equated to a team-leading 28.6% Target% and 37.4% AirYard%. Doubs’ 92% snap% in that game was also a season high. Doubs has also run essentially half of his routes on the right perimeter. That happens to be where the Eagles’ secondary has been the softest, as they’ve allowed the 6th-most FPPG to right perimeter WRs this season.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain/MVP Options 🏆

RB Saquon Barkley, PHI: Saquon finally erupted for a huge game in week eight, amassing 174 scrimmage yards and two TDs against his former Giants team. He now ranks as the RB11 in FPPG, which is very solid, but well below expectations heading into this season. Barkley has only been able to average 1.5 yards after contact per attempt, which is 35th among qualified rushers. But perhaps the big week eight performance, combined with the Eagles’ week nine bye, will give Barkley a little extra juice heading into this game. The sledding won’t be particularly easy, as the Packers have allowed the 6th-fewest adjusted FPPG to RBs, but they’re also a middling 15th in rush DVOA. Temps in Green Bay will also be at or below freezing this evening. While it’s not a guarantee, frigid temps can often benefit RBs who have the ability to get stronger as the game wears on, which is something Barkley has excelled at throughout his career.

QB Jordan Love, GB: Love has turned in a strong campaign, ranking 8th or better among all QBs in YPG, yards/completion, yards/attempt, passing success rate, completion%, passer rating, and QBR. He’s been a better real-life QB than fantasy QB, but, as QBs typically are on these single-game slates, Love makes for a quality high-floor play in DFS lineups. He will have to make do with a depleted receiving corps, but he has shown that he is capable of turning in strong performances even without a slew of high-end receiving weapons around him. The Eagles are also allowing 20.7 FPPG to QBs on the road this season. Love won’t be a go-to CPT/MVP candidate for me in this game, but he’ll make plenty of sense as a premium FLEX play.

WR AJ Brown, PHI: The Packers’ secondary has been solid against the slot, signaling a potential down game for WR DeVonta Smith (61% slot%), but they’ve been very beatable on the outside, allowing the 7th-most FPPG to perimeter WRs. That bodes well for AJ Brown, who has run nearly 90% of his routes on the outside this season. Brown has had a very up-and-down season up to this point, and more “down” than “up.” But the last time he suited up in week seven, he turned in his best performance of the season with a 4-121-2 receiving line. The Eagles have had two weeks to prepare for this huge primetime meeting, and Brown’s big-play ability should be a focal point in the Philly game plan.

TE Dallas Goedert, PHI: Since week four, Goedert’s 15.8 PPR FPPG ranks 2nd among all NFL TEs, behind only the Cardinals’ star TE Trey McBride. In that span, Goedert has commanded a strong 22.1% Target% and has caught six TDs. His role in the redzone is a major selling point, as Goedert’s target rate has risen to 30.4% when the Eagles have ventured into the redzone. The Packers also haven’t been particularly stout versus tight ends. They’ve allowed the 2nd-most receptions/gm (7.0) to the TE position, as well as the 7th-most adjusted FPPG.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers 💤

WR Christian Watson, GB: While Watson has seen only seven targets -- an 11.4% Target% -- in the two games since he made his season debut, he has eaten up a significant 36.1% AirYard%. Watson is utilized as the big-play threat in this passing attack, and has attained a deep 23.1-yard aDOT (average depth of target) in his two games. QB Jordan Love has completed 43.8% of his 20+ yard pass attempts this season, which may not seem great, but that is the 9th-best mark among NFL QBs. Watson may also see some additional target volume due to the shorthanded nature of the Packers' receiving room, and, after playing 56% and 66% of the snaps over his first two games, we may see that snap rate trend closer to 80% tonight.

TE Luke Musgrave, GB: Musgrave takes over as the Packers’ TE1 with Kraft out for the remainder of the season. Many may recall that Musgrave was viewed as Green Bay’s “tight end of the future” prior to Kraft’s emergence. He brings plenty of talent to the table and should be out there for the vast majority of snaps. It is a brutal matchup, however, as the Eagles are 1st in TE DVOA and have allowed the 3rd-fewest adjusted FPPG to the position.

K Jake Elliott, PHI, and K Brandon McManus, GB: Weather conditions aren’t ideal for kicking tonight, with freezing temps, 10 mph winds, and even the potential for a bit of snow. But, as always, kickers are sensible value FLEX options on single-game slates, and they tend to crack the optimal lineup more often than where their ownership numbers tend to be.

Packers D/ST and Eagles D/ST: Similar to kickers, D/STs can generally end up as solid value FLEX options as well. Both defenses in this game feature some star players and are worthy, albeit unexciting, FLEX options.

WR Jahan Dotson, PHI: Dotson is a distant 5th in targets, behind DeVonta Smith, AJ Brown, Dallas Goedert, and Saquon Barkley. But he has played 61% of the snaps this season while running a route on 76.7% of the Eagles’ dropbacks. He also has a team-leading 17.4-yard aDOT, so while he may only see a couple of targets, they’re likely to be deep down the field, giving Dotson some chunk play upside.

WR Malik Heath, GB: Pending the Packers' injury report, Malik Heath could end up operating as the Packers' WR3 tonight, behind Doubs and Watson. He’ll be a more intriguing flier if at least two of the three “questionable” Packers WRs (Golden, Wicks, S. Williams) are ruled out, with Golden leaving the biggest potential snaps available if he’s sidelined.

RB Emanuel Wilson, GB: Wilson has seen his involvement in the Packers’ offense trend up in recent weeks, and he’s had at least a 32% snap% in three consecutive games, averaging 9.3 touches/gm in that span. That’s a non-insignificant amount of volume. While no one is threatening Josh Jacobs’ role, especially near the goal line, Wilson has been involved enough that he should be on the radar. And, who knows, perhaps he breaks loose for a long TD tonight.

Showdown Stack Concepts 🥞

[*Player Name] represents captain/MVP play.

*QB Jalen Hurts, WR AJ Brown, TE Dallas Goedert: Standard CPT/MVP Hurts double-stack featuring his two pass catchers who draw the best individual matchups tonight. Other PHI pass catchers to mix into CPT/MVP Hurts lineups (in order of preference): WR DeVonta Smith, WR Jahan Dotson, RB Saquon Barkley, TE Grant Calcaterra.

*RB Josh Jacobs, QB Jalen Hurts, TE Dallas Goedert: Jacobs has the most multi-touchdown potential of any player in this game and, as discussed in his spotlight, the matchup is sneaky-good. Jacobs would have a higher chance of ending up as the optimal CPT/MVP if the Packers control things on the scoreboard for most of this game, so we’ll run it back with a Hurts + Goedert stack for correlation purposes.

*WR Romeo Doubs, QB Jordan Love, RB Saquon Barkley: Doubs should be the clear top option in the Packers receiving game with Tucker Kraft done for the year and several other GB WRs banged up. We’ll stack him with Love in the FLEX and, given Doubs’ affordable CPT/MVP salary, we can spring for a primo spend-up with Saquon as the bring-back play.

*RB Saquon Barkley, QB Jordan Love, WR Romeo Doubs: Similar approach as the CPT/MVP Jacobs lineup above, just flipping sides. This would work best if the Eagles are the team that controls this game, thus feeding Saquon more volume while forcing Jordan Love and the Packers into a pass-heavy approach.

*QB Jordan Love, WR Romeo Doubs, WR Christian Watson: Standard CPT/MVP Love double-stack. At least one of Doubs or Watson should be locked into any CPT/MVP Love lineup. Other GB pass catchers to mix into CPT/MVP Love lineups (in order of preference): WR Matthew Golden (questionable), TE Luke Musgrave, RB Josh Jacobs, WR Dontayvion Wicks (questionable, WR Malik Heath, WR Savion Williams (questionable), TE John Fitzpatrick, RB Emanuel Wilson.

*WR AJ Brown, QB Jalen Hurts, WR Christian Watson: Given the Packers’ struggles with perimeter WRs this season, AJ Brown could be due for another one of his spike weeks. He runs routes almost exclusively on the outside and, as mentioned in his spotlight, the Packers surrender the 7th-most FPPG to perimeter WRs. With the Eagles being underdogs tonight, they may be forced to pass more than usual as well. Stack Brown with Hurts and we’ll roll with Christian Watson as the bring-back play in hopes that he can erupt for a couple of huge plays as the Packers’ primary deep threat.

*TE Dallas Goedert, QB Jalen Hurts, RB Josh Jacobs: Goedert has been the Eagles’ go-to receiving threat in the redzone and, considering how many receptions the Packers tend to funnel toward tight ends, he’s a good bet to cash in on his +200 ATTD odds tonight. Stack Goedert with Hurts and, since the tight end won’t break the bank at CPT/MVP, we can spend up on Jacobs as a high-end bring-back play, which also correlates well with an Eagles pass catcher + QB stack.

Once again, if you have any questions, DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!