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Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens (-4.5) | 53.5 O/U

Lions: 24.5 Implied Points | Ravens: 29.0 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: BAL TE Isaiah Likely - OUT

Score Prediction: Lions - 27, Ravens - 31

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Lions, 4-2 Ravens

Players to Consider

Top Captains/MVPs & Core FLEX Plays 🔐

QB Lamar Jackson, BAL: Jackson will represent the safest floor play in this game, and he also brings plenty of captain/MVP-worthy upside to the table. Jackson has only attempted 48 passes through two games, but in lieu of volume, he has made it count with efficiency. He leads all NFL QBs in yards per completion (13.2), adjusted yards per completion (11.54), passer rating (136.6), and Touchdown% (12.5%) while completing just under 70% of his attempts. Jackson always possesses elite QB rushing upside, but his pass volume may see an uptick tonight. The Lions have done well at defending the run, ranking 5th in rush DVOA, but they check in at a subpar 22nd in pass DVOA. This game’s 53.5 over/under is the highest among all week three games, and, in a potential shootout, Jackson is a near-unavoidable option on this single-game slate.

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET: ARSB had a rather quiet week one, but, if there were any panicking concerns, those were quickly expelled last Sunday as he brought in 9-of-11 targets for 115 yards and three tuddies. He also mixed in a couple of rush attempts, which is just a clear indication that the Lions want to get the ball into their star WR’s hands. St. Brown has also already seen six redzone targets, which equates to a monster 54.5% RedZone Target%. He has run 50% of his routes out of the slot, which sets him up with an excellent matchup as the Ravens have allowed the 3rd-most FPPG to slot WRs. The Ravens are also 24th in WR1 DVOA.

WR Zay Flowers, BAL: Flowers is the sixth-most expensive option on both DraftKings and FanDuel, so, while he’s not cheap, he does stand out as a more affordable captain/MVP play with plenty of upside. As noted, the passing volume has not been high in the Ravens offense up to this point, but there is a good chance that changes this evening. Flowers also heads into this game with an NFL-leading 42.6% Target% and easily leads the Ravens with a 50.6% AirYard%. He has hauled in 100% of his catchable targets and, through two weeks (so, excluding the teams that have already played this week), Flowers led all NFL receivers in yards after the catch (113).

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain/MVP Options 🏆

RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET: The existence of David Montgomery is a thorn in the side of Jahmyr Gibbs’ ceiling, but he is one of the most physically talented RBs in the game and is capable of housing any touch he receives. If the Lions (+4.5 underdogs) do trail for a significant portion of this game, that stands to benefit Gibbs as well, given his receiving ability. In a trailing game script in week one, Gibbs was targeted 10 times. The Ravens have allowed 10 targets/gm and 9.5 receptions/gm to RBs as well, so the matchup also looks to line up with Gibbs’ skillset. His lofty showdown price does make him a less appealing captain/MVP choice, but there is ample reason in prioritizing him as a FLEX play.

RB Derrick Henry, BAL: Henry put up a rare dud in week two against the Browns, taking 11 carries for only 23 yards while playing just 61% of the snaps. The Browns do now rank 1st in rush DVOA, so perhaps it just boils down to being an unexpectedly difficult matchup. As noted, the Lions are highly rated at 5th in rush DVOA, but while it may not be a huge ceiling game, Henry could easily bounce back with 20+ carries, 100+ yards, and 1+ TDs, as that is a stat line he’s capable of posting against any team. So, I’m not overly high on him as a captain/MVP, but he’s certainly one of the best FLEX options in this game.

QB Jared Goff, DET: Goff has completed an NFL-leading 80.6% of his passes, and the Lions may need to be in more of a pass-happy mode to keep up with the efficient Ravens offense. The Ravens’ opponents have posted the 5th-highest PassPlay% (64.7%) this season, and only the Cowboys have allowed more FPPG to the QB position. Goff’s ceiling games typically come at home, but the floor and ceiling look great for him in this likely shootout.

 Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers 💤

TE Sam LaPorta, DET: LaPorta has commanded a solid 19.4% Target% through two weeks, and he’s been in on 90% of the snaps while posting a 90.1% RouteParticipation%. The Ravens have also shown an early weakness against the TE position, having allowed 8.0 receptions/gm and an NFL-high 92.5 YPG to the position while ranking 29th in TE DVOA.

 K Jake Bates, DET & K Tyler Loop, BAL: No wind/weather issues expected in Baltimore tonight, and both kickers bring double-digit FP upside to a high-scoring matchup. Solid FLEX options.

TE Mark Andrews, BAL: It’s been a brutal start for Andrews, who has a whopping two targets through two games. But he is still playing nearly 80% of the snaps and is tied for second on the team with a 79.2% RouteParticipation%. With that sort of involvement, Andrews needs to stay on the radar, and he will likely have low ownership in this game due to the recency bias. The Lions have been stout against TEs thus far, but their underlying 20th TE DVOA ranking tells us that they haven’t been as strong as the surface results would indicate.

 WR Rashod Bateman, BAL: DeAndre Hopkins has lucked out with a TD in each of the first two games, but Rashod Bateman has had a significantly higher snap% (67% to Hopkins’ 27%) and RouteParticipation% (79.2% to Hopkins’ 34.0%). So, while the results haven’t shown it yet, Bateman is the clear WR2 in this offense, and he could be due for one of his quality fantasy showings, like we saw on several occasions last season (six games of 16+ DKFP in 2024).

RB Justice Hill, BAL: Hill is a quality backup RB and has more pass-catching ability than Derrick Henry. As such, a shootout or a “Lions leading” game script could lead to more opportunities for Hill. He has also played a not-insignificant 43% snap% this season. Hill is 3rd on the team with a 10.6% Target% and is 4th on the team with a 52.8% RouteParticipation%.

 WR Isaac TeSlaa, DET: TeSlaa only seems to make highlight reel catches, and his knack for big plays may continue to earn him an increased role in a potent Lions’ offense. ARSB and Jameson Williams are the clear WR1/WR2 options, but, for now, WR Khalif Raymod is the main obstacle standing in TeSlaa’s way in earning more playing time. The skilled rookie did go from a 4% Snap% in week one to a 29% Snap% in week two. And, given his 6’4” frame, 4.4 speed, and 39.5” vertical, TeSlaa has the type of talent that will almost force the Lions’ coaching staff into putting him on the field more and more as the season progresses. If he manages to get close to a 40% snap% tonight, he’ll likely make some sort of meaningful impact.

TE Charlie Kolar, BAL: Kolar is the Ravens' de facto TE2 while Isaiah Likely remains sidelined. He has yet to see a target this season, but he has been in on 62% of the snaps with a 49.1% RouteParticipation%.

Stack Concepts 🥞

[*Player Name] represents captain/MVP play.

*QB Lamar Jackson, WR Zay Flowers, WR Rashod Bateman: Standard CPTN/MVP Jackson double-stack. Given his dual-threat ability and often-limited passing volume, I don’t believe you need to double-stack in this scenario, but Flowers should definitely be a priority [in CPTN/MVP Jackson lineups]. Other BAL pass catchers to mix in with CPTN/MVP Jackson lineups (in order of preference): TE Mark Andrews, WR DeAndre Hopkins, RB Justice Hill, WR Tylan Wallace, TE Charlie Kolar, WR Devontez Walker.

*WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, QB Jared Goff, TE Sam LaPorta: Lions-heavy stack that takes advantage of the best DvP matchups that the Ravens have shown a weakness to up to this point (slot WRs and TEs).

*WR Zay Flowers, QB Lamar Jackson, WR Isaac TeSlaa: As noted in his spotlight, Flowers leads the NFL in Target% and YAC (prior to week 3). Jackson should 100% be locked into the FLEX in any CPTN/MVP Flowers lineups, and, due to the pricey nature of this duo, we’ll save some salary with a cheap bring-back play with the uber-athletic rookie WR Isaac TeSlaa in hopes that his role continues to increase.

*RB Jahmyr Gibbs, QB Jared Goff, K Jake Bates: Lions-heavy stack that could give exposure to every point scored by this offense. After racking up 10 targets in week one, Gibbs also makes for a viable pass-catching stack piece with Goff… more so than most RBs would with their QBs.

*RB Derrick Henry, K Tyler Loop, TE Sam LaPorta: As discussed, it’s not the best spot for a King Henry ceiling game, but if this game ends up being an unexpectedly lower-scoring affair, Henry’s chances of ending up as the optimal captain skyrocket thanks to his 20+ touch upside and huge TD equity. Kickers and their team’s RB have moderate correlation (someone has to move the ball and set up FG attempts), so Loop works out as an affordable FLEX play, as does TE Sam LaPorta as an affordable bring-back FLEX play.

*QB Jared Goff, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR Jameson Williams: Standard CPTN/MVP Goff double-stack with his clear WR1 and WR2. Unless you take multiple punt plays, this stack would make it difficult to fit Lamar Jackson and/or other Ravens studs into the same lineup, so this is more viable in a “Lions decisive victory” predictive gamescript lineup. Other DET pass catchers to mix in with CPTN/MVP Goff lineups (in order of preference): TE Sam LaPorta, RB Jahmyr Gibbs, WR Isaac TeSlaa, WR Khalif Raymond, TE Brock Wright.

Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!