Russell Wilson returns to Seattle in his first game donning a Broncos uniform. Will Denver roll to an easy road victory, or will the Geno Smith-led Seahawks put up a fight?

By: Ryan Humphries

Find me on Twitter and in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries 

NFL PreSnap Podcast 📣

Denver Broncos (-7) at Seattle Seahawks | 44 O/U

DEN: 25.5 implied points | SEA: 18.5 implied points

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: WR KJ Hamler (questionable), RB Kenneth Walker III (questionable)

Score Prediction: DEN - 24, SEA - 13

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Broncos, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Seahawks, 5-1 Broncos

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

QB Russell Wilson: I don’t see any reason to force the “revenge” narrative here. Really, rolling Russ out as your captain simply comes down to a good quarterback facing an average-at-best defense. The Seahawks ranked 26th in pass DVOA last season and likely won’t fare much better this season. And if anyone is going to be familiar with this defense and knows where this match-up could be exploited, it would be longtime Seahawk Russell Wilson.

WR Courtland Sutton: One of the training camp hype trains that I’m a believer in is the strong connection that Russell Wilson has reportedly sparked with Courtland Sutton. The fifth-year Broncos receiver has proven to be an effective playmaker during his time in the league, but some unspectacular QB play has hampered him. Now, all of a sudden, he has an accurate QB in Denver to support him, and Wilson is also one of the better deep ball throwers. Sutton will post some huge games this season, and one of those ceiling games could arrive in week one.

RB Rashaad Penny: Injuries have plagued Penny’s career, but he has flashed some real talent when he’s been healthy and handed a featured workload. We saw it at the end of last season when Penny amassed 671 yards and six TDs over the final five games of the year. During that stretch, Penny averaged a whopping 7.3 YPC. The Broncos ranked 20th in rush DVOA in 2021 and aren’t expected to be a premiere run defense again this season. The pathway for Penny to see a featured three-down role on Monday night would widen should rookie RB Kenneth Walker III (hernia) get ruled out. 

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

RB Javonte Williams: This is still a split backfield between Williams and Melvin Gordon III, but Williams is the more likely candidate to see the majority of the work. It’s going to be interesting to see how things are ultimately split between these two guys, but utilizing RBs against Seattle was highly lucrative last season. The Seahawks gave up the second-most FPPG to RBs a season ago, including an NFL-high 127 catches and 1,106 yards receiving to the position. As long as Gordon is around, it is going to be a bit difficult for Williams to put up any monster performances but he’ll remain on the captain radar and well within the range of flex viability.

Broncos D/ST: Geno Smith isn’t going to instill fear in many opposing defenses. Even though he is relatively serviceable as a stopgap sort of QB, he’s still a guy who would be second on the depth charts for about any other NFL offense. No one expects the Broncos defense to be elite, but they’re a fairly solid unit that could put up some nice stats in this game. Seattle is being pinned with a low 18.5 implied point total as well.

WR DK Metcalf: In the four games that Geno Smith either started or played significant snaps in due to Russell Wilson’s injury (weeks 5-8), DK Metcalf tallied fantasy scores of 26.8, 11.8, 17.6, and 22.3 DKFP while bringing in five combined TDs. Thanks to his rare combination of elite size and speed, Metcalf doesn’t necessarily need a ton of catches and targets to put up a strong fantasy score, so he’ll stay on the FLEX/contrarian captain radar tonight.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

TE Albert Okwuegbunam: “Albert O” was a trendy breakout tight end candidate heading into this season, so we’ll see how he is utilized now that Noah Fant is no longer in Denver and Okwuegbunam sits atop the depth chart. Okwuegbunam caught an impressive 82.5% of his targets last year and, to state obvious, Russell Wilson is a sizable upgrade over the former Broncos QB combination of Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock. The Seahawks defense gave up the eighth-most FPPG to TEs last season and Albert O has some big play upside, evidenced by his 7.4 YAC average in 2021, which ranked third among all tight ends (min. 25 receptions).

RB Travis Homer*: *If Kenneth Walker III is ruled out. Assuming Walker sits or is perhaps highly limited, Homer should serve as the complementary back to Rashaad Penny. Penny’s injury-prone history also leaves the door open for Homer to play a ton of snaps if something were to happen to Penny -- not rooting for that, of course, but it’s something to keep in mind. Homer also provides some sneaky PPR upside, considering the Geno Smith-led offense could end up being fairly “dink and dunk-y.”

RB Melvin Gordon III: I wouldn’t consider MG3 a major sleeper, but his ownership should land well below that of backfield teammate Javonte Williams. And yet, if Gordon ends with the better fantasy day by the end of this game, I don’t believe anyone would be too surprised. Gordon scored at least 15 DKFP in six of his 16 games last year, with Javonte Williams being fully healthy all season. I would avoid playing both Gordon and Williams in the same lineup. Still, Gordon will certainly stand out as a leverage option, especially if he is due to get most/all of the goal line work like some Broncos insiders have pointed out as being a possibility or even a likelihood.

Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*QB Russell Wilson, WR Courtland Sutton, TE Albert Okwuegbunam: Standard CPTN Wilson double stack.

*WR Courtland Sutton, QB Russell Wilson, RB Rashaad Penny: Sutton is poised for a huge season now that he’ll benefit from improved QB play. He brings big upside out of the CPTN roster slot.

*RB Rashaad Penny, QB Russell Wilson, WR Jerry Jeudy: 20-touch potential for Penny tonight, especially if Kenneth Walker III sits. If the Seahawks stand a chance to win this game, Penny will have to have a huge day.

*RB Javonte Williams, QB Geno Smith, WR DK Metcalf: Melvin Gordon hasn’t gone anywhere but Williams has explosive playmaking ability and this Seahawks run defense bled fantasy points to RBs a season ago. Even in a split backfield, Williams has a captain-worthy ceiling. Running it back on the other side with a Geno/DK stack.

*WR DK Metcalf, QB Geno Smith, RB Melvin Gordon III: Metcalf was still a viable fantasy asset while Geno Smith was under center for the Seahawks last season. He brings “slate-breaking” potential any time he gets the ball in space.

*Broncos D/ST, RB Javonte Williams, WR Jerry Jeudy: A D/ST at captain? Crazy I know. But we already saw a D/ST captain land in a primetime perfect lineup when the Bills scored 17 DKFP (25.5 CPTN DKFP) on Thursday night against the Rams. It’s not likely, but it happens more often than ya might think, and this is a great match-up against a low-caliber Seahawks offense.

5-1 Broncos “Smash” Builds: A Broncos blowout victory would not be the craziest outcome to envision and we could see 5-1 Denver-heavy lineup take down GPPs tonight. It’s typically unlikely but, again, it was something we saw happen in that Bills/Rams Thursday night season opener (Bills 5-1 stack ended as the optimal lineup). 

That will wrap us up with the MNF edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!

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