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Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) at Chicago Bears | 43.5 O/U

Vikings: 22.5 Implied Points | Bears: 21.0 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: RB Roschon Johnson - Questionable, WR Jordan Addison (suspension) - OUT, RB Travis Homer - OUT/IR

Score Prediction: Vikings - 20, Bears - 27

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Bears, 4-2 Vikings, 3-3 Balanced

Players to Consider

Top Captains/MVPs & Core FLEX Plays

WR Justin Jefferson: Jefferson remains one of the league’s true alphas — arguably the best wideout in football and a nightmare for defenses at every level. He is also the one true stud in this game, so he is an obvious captain/MVP choice. Even with a shaky QB situation last year, Jefferson still managed 90.2 yards per game (second only to Ja’Marr Chase) and tied his career-high with 10 touchdowns, finishing as the WR4 in PPR points per game. That came after losing Kirk Cousins as his target supplier and adjusting to Sam Darnold, proving Jefferson’s production doesn’t hinge on perfect circumstances. Now he gets another QB change with J.J. McCarthy, who is effectively a rookie on the field after missing all of last season following knee surgery in August 2024. But Kevin O’Connell’s system has consistently elevated his passers, and Jefferson’s target share is as bankable as it gets. He’ll also have more of a stranglehold on the target share with WR Jordan Addison serving a three-game suspension. His ceiling hasn’t gone anywhere, and he should again contend for the WR1 crown in 2025. The week one matchup isn’t ideal for Jefferson, as he’ll often find himself going up against CB Jaylon Johnson, who is among the best players at his position. However, Johnson isn’t heading into this game at 100%, and is officially listed as “questionable” due to calf/groin injuries. He’s been a limited participant in practice all week.

 WR DJ Moore: Ben Johnson taking over in Chicago is a huge upgrade for this offense, and Moore stands to benefit the most. Even in a “down” 2024, he still saw a 28% target share and should see even more volume now with Keenan Allen gone. While the yardage and TDs were down for Moore last year, he did haul in a career high 98 receptions. We already know Moore’s ceiling — 1,336 yards and eight scores in his first year with the Bears in 2023 — and Ben Johnson’s scheme should help him get back closer to that level. The Week 1 spot vs. Minnesota looks tougher on paper (MIN: 1st in pass DVOA in 2024), but volume was the great equalizer against them last season. No defense allowed more PPR points per game to wideouts, and Moore lit them up for nearly 30 DK points in one matchup back in Week 12. He’s in a great spot to start fast under Johnson and remains a strong contender for your captain/MVP selection.

RB D’Andre Swift: It’ll be interesting to see how things shake out with both backfields in this game. But, if I had to choose one of the RBs to bank on, it’s likely going to be D’Andre Swift. He enters Week 1 as the clear lead back after Chicago passed on early-round RB help, and the volume should be there right away. Backup RB Roschon Johnson (foot) is questionable to play, after logging DNPs on Thursday and Friday with just a limited practice on Saturday. RB Travis Homer is also on IR, so if Johnson is out, the only real competition for backfield touches would be rookie Kyle Monangai. Swift wasn’t efficient last season (3.8 YPC), but a shaky offensive line did him no favors — his 2.0 yards before contact ranked near the bottom of the league. The Bears invested in the O-Line this offseason, importing two new guards and a new center, so a bounce-back toward Swift’s career 4.6 YPC isn’t out of the question. What really helps to keep Swift firmly in play is the pass-catching role he carved out last year. If the O-Line upgrades even marginally improve his rushing efficiency, he has a path to solid every-down usage in Ben Johnson’s offense, which allowed two RBs (Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery) to flourish in the same system over the last couple of years.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain/MVP Options

QB Caleb Williams: Williams’ rookie year was a mixed bag — flashes of talent, but far too many sacks taken (68) and just 208.3 passing yards per game. Still, the Bears made the biggest coaching upgrade of the offseason, going from Matt Eberflus to now handing the keys over to Ben Johnson, and that alone raises Williams’ ceiling. We’re really hitting on this Ben Johnson coaching upgrade a bunch, but it really should make an immediate and noticeable impact within this Bears’ offense. Caleb Williams also showed much better splits at home in ‘24, averaging nearly 18 fantasy points in Chicago compared to 14.5 on the road. Back in his comfort zone for Week 1 against Minnesota, Williams enters with a solid floor projection and, if the new system and Bears’ O-Line improvements really mesh, he could be in the running as the optimal captain/MVP when it’s all said and done.

WR Rome Odunze: Odunze showed flashes as a rookie and now gets a chance to step into a bigger role with Keenan Allen gone. He was the Bears’ clear big-play threat last season, leading the team with a 33% AirYard% and a 14.2-yard aDOT — nearly double that of the next closest Bears’ receiver, D.J. Moore (7.2-yard aDOT). If he can pair that downfield ability with a slight bump in volume, Odunze has real breakout potential in year two.

 RB Aaron Jones Sr. and RB Jordan Mason: Minnesota’s backfield looks like it’ll be set up as a pesky timeshare after they brought in Jordan Mason to complement Aaron Jones. The assumption will be for Jones to handle most of the passing downs work, with some early down duties mixed in, and Mason likely getting the bulk of the short-yardage carries. A near 50/50 split is in play, which makes format and site scoring the real tiebreaker. Jones profiles as the better DraftKings play thanks to his pass-catching role and full PPR DK scoring, while Mason pops on FanDuel as one of the slate’s best potential point-per-dollar values.

 TE TJ Hockenson: Hockenson missed a significant chunk of last season due to injury, but he commanded a rock-solid [by TE standards] 18% Target% in the games he did play. Now fully healthy and with Jordan Addison serving his suspension, his role should expand right out of the gate. There is also the historic tendency for rookie quarterbacks to lean on their tight ends, and Hockenson is a proven receiver who can serve as JJ McCarthy’s safety net tonight.

 Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

TE Colston Loveland: It wasn’t too long ago that rookie tight ends, like Loveland, had an extremely tough time adjusting to things at the NFL level. That trend has dissipated in recent years, and, all of a sudden, many of these highly touted TEs are making major impacts right out of the gate. We will need to keep expectations in check for Loveland… he is not close to being on the same tier as someone like Brock Bowers. But the Bears did invest a 10th overall pick in Loveland in this year’s draft, and he is already sitting atop the depth chart above veteran TEs Cole Kmet and Durham Smythe. I’d fully expect Kmet to see plenty of snaps in this game as well, but a handful of receptions with a shot at a redzone TD would not be a wildly unexpected result for Loveland this evening.

 Vikings D/ST and Bears D/ST: Both defenses are in play. As noted, Caleb Williams took a ton of sacks last season, though their overall offensive upside looks far better with Ben Johnson at the helm. The Bears D/ST, while a bit banged up, is the more intriguing of the two options as QB JJ McCarthy makes his first career start, which will be on the road, and will be without a top receiving weapon in Jordan Addison.

K Will Reichard and K Cairo Santos: No weather issues or overly windy conditions are expected in Chicago this evening, so, as usual, both kickers make for worthy value FLEX plays. With a 43.5 over/under pinned on this game, the sportsbooks are also hinting at more field goals than touchdowns expected.

WR Luther Burden III: Burden is another rookie whose outlook is more volatile than the aforementioned Colston Loveland. The amount of snaps he’ll see, even in three WR sets, is very much in question. But I watched a good bit of this guy in college, and was fully expecting him to go in the first round of the NFL draft at one point, but the Bears snagged him in the second as the 39th overall selection. Burden has 4.4 speed and can very much serve as a downfield threat… but, then again, Rome Odunze already has that role seemingly locked down. Nonetheless, the big-play ability is there and, instead of downfield looks, Burden may be targeted on shorter-to-intermediate passes in hopes of big YAC yardage.

WR Adam Thielen: Thielen is more of an option on DK at his $4,400 price tag (vs. being $7,800 on FD). He’ll have a real chance to step in as the Vikings’ WR2 for the first few weeks of the season while Jordan Addison serves his three-game suspension. As you’re probably aware, Thielen recently came over via trade from the Panthers, so he hasn’t been with the Vikings for all of their training camp. But he has plenty of previous experience in this system, so I doubt there is much to worry about in regards to him knowing the playbook. He will represent a reliable, veteran receiver for the young JJ McCarthy to throw to. 

TE Cole Kmet: Kmet may cede many of his opportunities as a pass catcher to Colston Loveland, but he should still have a role early in the year. Unlike Loveland, Kmet has built rapport with Caleb Williams in actual NFL games, and with the Bears expected to run plenty of two-TE sets, Kmet will remain involved to start the season.

 WR Jalen Nailor: Nailor flashed some upside as the Vikings’ WR3 last year, finding the end zone six times and posting four games with double-digit fantasy points despite just a 9% target share. He’s not going to command heavy volume, but his role gives him sneaky spike-week potential. Nailor also makes sense as a leverage play in builds where you’re fading Thielen.

RB Kyle Monangai: Monangai becomes much more interesting as a punt play if Roschon Johnson (foot/questionable) is ruled out. He would then serve as the sure-fire RB2 behind D’Andre Swift. Monangai had back-to-back seasons of 1,200+ rushing yards as a junior and senior in college, and he even caught a couple of TDs from Caleb Williams in the preseason.

WR Olamide Zaccheaus: Zaccheaus has six full NFL seasons under his belt, and while he has never been a featured receiver with any of his three previous teams (Falcons, Eagles, Commanders), he has shown plenty of big-play ability. It’s entirely possible that he is ahead of Burden on the depth chart, and drastically out-snaps him tonight, and yet he is the cheaper option of the two.

Quick Note: I usually put together a “stack concepts” section at this point in these single-game NFL newsletters, where I try to lay out some viable three-player stacks to build out lineups with. I will get those going starting in week two in the “Primetime Previews”. Best of luck tonight!

Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!