By: Ryan Humphries

Find me on Twitter and in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries 

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The week 15 NFL marathon continues with some Monday Night Football action! Due to the lengthy list of COVID issues, we’re going to forego the headache of talking about the Browns/Raiders game and instead solely focus on tonight’s Vikings/Bears showdown.

LineStar user “unknown” asked me to briefly mention something pertaining to showdown lineup construction and it's worth the reminder...

From the “Single Game Showdown Tips & Strategies” linked in the header:

It’s very common for top prizes in showdown GPPs to be split among many different contestants. Sometimes it is just unavoidable if the optimal lineup ends up being a commonly duplicated entry. But one of the better ways to ensure you have a more unique lineup is to simply not force yourself into spending 98-100% of your salary. Leaving $1,000 to $5,000 (or more in some circumstances) on the table may not feel like a ‘comfortable’ thing to do, yet is oftentimes the optimal route to take. A good way to sort of back test this is to go on LineStar’s “Perfect Lineups” page and check out optimal lineups from previous showdown slates.

Note: Due to format discrepancies between DraftKings and FanDuel along with how lineups are constructed for single-game contests, this article is more geared towards a DraftKings-focused GPP approach.

Minnesota Vikings (-6.5) at Chicago Bears | 45.5 O/U

MIN: 26.0 implied points | CHI: 19.5 implied points

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: WR Adam Thielen (Q), RB Alexander Mattison (C19), WR Allen Robinson II (C19), QB Andy Dalton (C19), WR Marquise Goodwin (D), WR Dede Westbrook (C19)

Score Prediction: MIN - 24, CHI - 20

Game Notes: We have an NFC North showdown with the 6-7 Vikings traveling to take on the 4-9 Bears on Monday Night Football. While the Bears are still technically alive on the playoff bubble, this game certainly means more to the Vikings who will likely need a 3-1 finish in order to make the postseason. The Vikings are coming in off of a “mini bye week” with their last game being played 11 days ago against the Steelers on TNF. Those extra days off may prove to be invaluable as they’ll check in as the healthier team tonight while the Bears deal with a higher number of injuries and COVID-related absences to both players and staff.

There are some things to watch for in this game. In the past, Mike Zimmer coached teams have been excellent at confusing young quarterbacks with difficult defensive schemes. They’ll of course be up against rookie Justin Fields tonight. However, the Vikings defense, specifically the secondary, has been Swiss cheese. They’ll also now be without CB Bashaud Breeland who was waived after an altercation in Vikings practice this past week. Breeland wasn’t exactly playing well at all but there’s a reason his replacements were behind him on the depth chart. Finally, we should pay attention to Dalvin Cook and the Vikings run game. The Bears have been fairly effective against Cook in the past but he’s coming off of a dominant 205-yard, two-touchdown performance in week 14. He’ll still need to wear a harness on his bum shoulder but that certainly didn’t seem to impact him last week. Under Mike Zimmer, the Vikings are 2-5 against the spread in Chicago and all but one of those games was decided by more than one score. With that in mind, I believe Minnesota pulls out the win here in some frigid conditions at Solider Field but it won’t be by a wide margin.

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 MIN, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 CHI, and a sprinkle of 5-1 MIN “Smash” Builds

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

WR Justin Jefferson: What a beast. Jefferson is averaging 25.7 DKFP over his last five games while seeing just under 12 targets/gm and now he’ll be running up against a bunch of second/third string Bears DBs.

QB Kirk Cousins: The Bears head into week 15 having allowed opposing QBs to complete 77% of their passes over the last four games while allowing the 3rd most FPPG to QBs. Now Chicago’s entire secondary has landed on the reserve/COVID-19 list. Kirk has been extremely sharp in Minnesota’s seven road games this season where he has completed 68.8% of his passes for 289.6 YPG and a 16:1 TD:INT ratio. If Adam Thielen is active, even if he isn’t at 100% and is on a limited snap count, he’ll provide Cousins with a very familiar target and a trusted redzone threat.

WR Darnell Mooney: Mooney will find himself in a prime match-up against a Vikings secondary that has surrendered *the*most FPPG to WRs this season. With Allen Robinson II on the COVID list, Mooney should be the clear-cut top target for Justin Fields once again. Fields has only completed 57.6% of his passes this season but the raw volume of targets Mooney should see, combined with the ineptitude of the Vikings secondary, may make up for some of Fields’ accuracy issues.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

RB Dalvin Cook: I believe Cook should continue to post solid numbers in this game, despite the shoulder issue, but at a captain salary of $17,700 (and the most expensive player overall), I believe other guys bring better ceilings to the table. As a result, most of my Cook exposure will be as a FLEX play. Also, as mentioned above, the Bears have been one of the few teams that have found success against Cook in recent seasons, holding him to 62 rushing YPG in their last five meetings. However, in two games against Chicago last season, Cook ran for 96 (30 carries) and 132 (24 carries) so he’s certainly trending up in this NFC North rivalry.

RB David Montgomery: Monty has averaged 26.25 DKFP/gm versus Minnesota in the last two seasons and, in four home games this season, he has averaged 19.5 carries/gm and 3.5 targets/gm. He should once again serve as the centerpiece to the Bears offense and if Chicago is to pull off the upset tonight, Montgomery will need to have a big game.

TE Cole Kmet: While many will flock to Jakeem Grant and Damiere Byrd, both of whom scored unexpected touchdowns last week, Kmet feels like a nice mid-range pivot play away from those two Bears receivers. He has also been a victim of Justin Fields’ accuracy issues but Kmet has commanded a respectable 18.4% TGT% including a team-high 21.6% redzone TGT%. Note that I’m not against playing Grant or Byrd, but Kmet feels like someone with similar upside and may check in with lower ownership.

Honorable Mention: If Adam Thielen is out, KJ Osborn becomes a very strong FLEX play at $5,800.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

RB Kene Nwangwu OR CJ Ham: Alexander Mattison (C19) is out tonight so Nwangwu and Ham will be the only other available backs. While it isn’t something I wish for, there’s always a chance Dalvin Cook could experience a setback with his shoulder injury which would open the door for major volume for guys who are just a few hundred bucks above minimum salary. Ham has not had more than four touches in any game in his career, so I’d slightly prefer Nwangwu who also operates as the Vikings kick returner and has a couple of return TDs this season. It’s also possible that a Cook injury wouldn’t even be needed for one of these RBs to return value on their rock bottom salaries.

TE Tyler Conklin: He gets fairly pedestrian target volume but his role increases in scoring territory where he has a lofty 24.1% TGT%. If Thielen (20.7% redzone TGT%) is out, Conklin’s touchdown chances receive a noticeable boost.

K Greg Joseph: He does benefit from playing inside a domed stadium at home but Joseph has shown off a big leg this season and has made 6-of-8 FGs from 50+ yards out. He has scored double-digit fantasy points in seven of the last nine games and 9-of-13 overall. At only $3,400, Joesph’s median projection is very solid for a showdown FLEX play.

Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*Justin Jefferson, Kirk Cousins, Cole Kmet: There is just too much working in Jefferson’s favor tonight. To go along with his elite 27.7% TGT% and massive 31% redzone TGT%, he gets to run routes against a completely depleted Bears secondary (due to COVID) and even if Adam Thielen does play, he isn’t expected to be 100%. He’s the best ceiling play in this game in my opinion which means he’s my favorite overall captain play.

*Kirk Cousins + Two Vikings Receivers: Standard Captain Kirk double-stack. Plenty of upside to be had here and if Cousins spreads the ball around and doesn’t only look to feed Justin Jefferson all game, a CPTN Cousins double stack has a ton of potential to be the optimal approach.

*Darnell Mooney, Justin Fields, Dalvin Cook: Mooney draws the super soft match-up against the Vikings secondary, which is dealing with personnel problems of their own, and Justin Fields has shown a clear desire to get Mooney the ball. With no ARob, Mooney’s targets are also more secured and it’s likely Chicago plays from behind in this game, leading to higher pass volume.

*David Montgomery, Justin Jefferson, Tyler Conklin: Montgomery has had at least 21 carries in all three career games versus Minnesota and he’s been targeted 16 times in the last two weeks as well. Montgomery also has an elite 82% snap% over the last four games so he is rarely coming off of the field.

*Kene Nwangwu (or CJ Ham) + All the high-end plays your heart desires EXCEPT Dalvin Cook: So, again, no one hopes for or roots for an injury to occur, myself included. But it would only take one big hit or awkward fall on that bum shoulder for Dalvin Cook to get knocked out of this game. With Alexander Mattison (C19), not a factor, Kene Nwangwu ($1,200 CPTN salary) or CJ Ham ($600 CPTN salary) both have immense fantasy point per dollar upside if something *were* to happen to Cook. Obviously, I wouldn’t go heavy on this approach considering Cook looks totally unfazed by his shoulder injury when he handled 28 touches against the Steelers 11 days ago. But if you’re an adamant showdown player, you know how often these extremely low-priced players come out of nowhere (typically as a result of injuries) and end up being optimal plays.

That will wrap us up for the MNF Preview! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck tonight!

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