The NFL regular season is finally here! Time to dig into tonight's match-up between the Rams and Bills!

By: Ryan Humphries

Find me on Twitter and in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries 

NFL PreSnap Podcast 📣

Today is one of the best days of the year as we welcome NFL football back into our lives! The regular season kicks off on Thursday night with a banger of a match-up as the defending champion Los Angeles Rams take on the Buffalo Bills, who just so happen to be the current odds-on favorite to win Super Bowl 57. Everyone, here’s to a thrilling and profitable 2022-23 NFL season!

Single Game NFL DFS Introduction

I’m sure many of you reading this are well-versed on the ins and outs of single-game NFL DFS, so feel free to skip past this whole segment. For unfamiliar people, here is a brief rundown of how things will work on DraftKings and FanDuel.

In the DraftKings single game “Showdown Captain Mode” format, your “captain” selection will represent your most important player in any given lineup. This is because your chosen captain player will score 1.5x the normal amount of fantasy points. However, the trade-off is that their salary is also increased by a multiple of 1.5x.

On FanDuel, there is no increased salary adjustment for the “MVP” roster position. However, that player will still score 1.5x the normal amount of fantasy points. Due to single-game format discrepancies between DraftKings and FanDuel, this article is more geared towards a DraftKings-focused GPP approach for their “Showdown Captain Mode” contests. But FanDuel players may also gain some helpful information from these Primetime Previews.

Many believe that to win an NFL showdown GPP, you simply have to ‘luckbox’ your way onto the podium. That simply isn’t accurate! Sure, to win any sort of GPP in DFS, regardless of sport or slate format, you need a bit of good fortune. But research and sharp game theory truly make all the difference.

So, what are some strategies and determining factors that should affect your approach to NFL showdown lineup construction?

Single Game Showdown Tips & Strategy

1a) Choosing the Right Captain

This one is quite obvious, but it is the most important aspect of single-game showdown lineup construction. The 1.5x multiplier applied to the captain roster spot is extremely crucial in any showdown contest, but especially in GPPs. Based on historical data from past DraftKings showdowns, about two-thirds of the time, a wide receiver or running back ends up being the optimal captain play. Quarterbacks are oftentimes the highest owned captain selections in actual contests but end up being the optimal play less than 20% of the time. However, QBs who add value with their rushing ability are more viable as captain selections over QBs who are prototypical pocket passers. Behind WRs, RBs, and QBs, in terms of the most common optimal captain selections, are tight ends, defenses, and (on very rare occasions) kickers – in that order.

1b) ‘Stacking’ Your Captain Selection Appropriately

This goes hand-in-hand with who you choose to roll with at captain. If you have a WR at captain, you almost always want to pair that player with their quarterback as one of your flex plays. If you’re choosing to roll with a QB at captain, you are sort of predicting that more than one of his receivers are going to have a highly productive day, and no single receiver will be outscoring the QB in fantasy points. With that in mind, it is most logical to stack two or three of his pass catchers. Running backs often have a positive correlation with their team’s defense (likely having a lead and controlling the clock on the ground on offense = well-rested, better-performing defense) so you could choose to take that route. RBs who are capable receivers see their fair share of targets and are stackable with their QB as well.

2) Predicting Game Flow

Some of the best showdown DFS players excel in predicting game flow when constructing their lineups. It may sound somewhat cheesy, but you need to make your lineup(s) tell a story. If you’re rostering one team’s bellcow RB, if you believe that his team is going to be leading and attempting to control the clock by feeding him all game, then run it back with the opposing team’s passing game, which may be forced into playing a pass-happy “catch-up mode” type of offense. If you’re predicting a sort of 16-10 type of low-scoring affair, consider rostering one or both defenses (one perhaps in your captain slot) while trying to find the skill position players who score the game’s one or two touchdowns.

If you believe one team, whether they’re the favorite or the underdog, has a chance to completely blow out the other, then consider building a 5-1 ‘smash’ lineup – meaning, roster five players on the dominating team and one player on the other team that could still manage to have a decent fantasy day. Most GPP-winning lineups will have either a 4-2 construction (four players on the winning team, two on the losing team) or a 3-3 construction (three players from both teams – when a game stays fairly close and is usually won by about 10 points or less).

3) Ownership Leverage

With a limited player pool to choose from, it can be very difficult to find those one or two guys who explode in a game and put your lineup over the top. But on any given single game NFL slate, you know who the chalky plays will almost always be: QBs, WR1s/WR2s, RB1s, and occasionally a TE if there is a premiere guy at the position available like Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews. Think outside the box to find the guy whose snap counts have been rising in recent weeks or somebody else that is further down the depth chart but can still play a key offensive role, especially if an injury occurs.

Also, in any GPP approach, you want to try to be overweight or underweight on players compared to the field. For example, if you’re rolling out 20 lineups and you believe a player is going to be around 50% owned, then determine whether or not you’re going to go above the field by rostering him in 16 lineups (80% exposure) or bet against him by simply putting him in five lineups (25% exposure). If your player exposure is even to the field, you limit the potential upside and leverage within your lineups.

4) Leaving Some Salary on the Table

It’s very common for top prizes in showdown GPPs to be split among many different contestants. Sometimes it is just unavoidable if the optimal lineup ends up being a commonly duplicated entry. But one of the better ways to ensure you have a unique lineup is to simply not force yourself into spending 98-100% of your salary. Leaving $1,000 to $5,000 (or more in some circumstances) on the table may not feel like a ‘comfortable’ thing to do, yet is often the optimal route to take. A good way to sort of back-test this is to go on LineStar’s “Perfect Lineups” page and check out optimal lineups from previous NFL showdown slates.

Now, with those single-game showdown tips and strategies covered, let’s get a look ahead at tonight’s Rams vs. Bills match-up!

Buffalo Bills (-2.5) @ Los Angeles Rams | 52 O/U

BUF: 27.3 implied points | LAR: 24.8 implied points

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: WR Van Jefferson (OUT)

Score Prediction: BUF - 31, LAR - 27

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Bills, 4-2 Rams

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

QB Josh Allen: In the NFL, so much can change from one season to the next, and there is no shortage of uncertainties to take into account. With that in mind, one thing that should not change from last year is Josh Allen’s ability to dominate a game and put up monster fantasy performances. Allen is coming off of a season where he not only threw for over 5,000 yards and 45 TDs, but he also added 897 yards and six more TDs on the ground. His dual-threat impact should once again be on display Thursday night.

WR Cooper Kupp: Kupp posted a historically great season last year where he hauled in 145-of-191 targets for 1,947 yards and 16 TDs. He also surpassed 100 receiving yards in 11-of-17 games. The addition of Allen Robinson II in the off-season will threaten Kupp’s ability to post the same sort of elite production this season. However, this Stafford to Kupp connection is just so well established and trustworthy. I believe Allen Robinson II will have a strong year with the Rams, but Kupp should continue to feast as the alpha WR, at least in the early goings of the new season.

WR Gabe Davis: This is a bit of a risk as a CPTN play, but as we saw in the Bills' divisional round game against the Chiefs where he went for 8 catches, 201 yards, and FOUR touchdowns, Davis has an incredibly high ceiling in this high-powered offense. He has garnered high praise in the off-season and is expected to take on a more consistently prominent role in the Bills offense now that Cole Beasley (112 targets in 2021) and Emmanuel Sanders (72 targets, team-high 14.9-yard aDOT in 2021) are no longer on the team. Stefon Diggs is still the first option in this passing game, but if the Rams focus on Diggs, then Davis could see more opportunities open up in both the intermediate and downfield passing game. 

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

WR Isaiah McKenzie: The former Bills slot man from last season, Cole Beasley, had a very fantasy-relevant role that saw him targeted 112 times for 82 receptions with an 18.4% Target%. While the Bills did bring in Jameson Crowder to fulfill some slot duties, it is McKenzie who appears set to take over as the primary slot receiver. He will likely lose some snaps to Crowder, but McKenzie impressed enough in camp to where he emerged as the top slot option on the depth chart.

RB Cam Akers: It’s hard to get too excited about the Rams' RB situation in this game. The Bills have a strong run defense, and there is some uncertainty surrounding how touches will be split between Akers, and Darrell Henderson Jr. Akers is the presumed lead back, and, unlike the Bills, he plays on an offense that doesn’t have a running QB that is a major threat to steal goal line carries and touchdowns. Akers is a little over a year removed from a torn Achilles, though he somehow managed to return and play towards the end of last season. He didn’t impress much with the work given to him last season, but he has a feasible pathway to 20 touches and a chance at one or two TDs. That alone makes him a FLEX candidate (and leverage CPTN option).

TE Dawson Knox: On Wednesday, the Bills locked up Knox to a four-year extension worth $53.6M ($31M guaranteed), so he’s set to be a fixture in this offense for quite some time. Knox finished fourth among all TEs in RedZone targets a season ago (caught nine TDs), and the Rams allowed the 10th most targets and receptions to go to tight ends.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

K Matt Gay: As far as kicker fantasy seasons go, Matt Gay had a damn good one last year. He finished fifth among all NFL kickers in fantasy points and scored at least eight FP in 16-of-20 games (incl. playoffs). The Rams have a potent offense but the Bills defense is also highly skilled. We could see several Rams drives stall in field goal range, and Matt Gay rarely misses (40-of-44 FGM/FGA last season, 90.9% FGM%).

TE Tyler Higbee: So the one real notable skill position injury for this game lies with Rams WR Van Jefferson, who has already been ruled out. While that will open up snaps in three WR sets for the Rams, Higbee may benefit the most from Jefferson’s absence. There is something to be said about constantly being on the field and Higbee’s 81.1% snap% in 2021 ranked second among all tight ends. He also saw a solid 16.2% Redzone Target% and at least six targets in his final four games in the regular season.

RB James Cook: Josh Allen takes a big bite out of the running game production, and the Bills don’t necessarily have a standout target at RB to begin with. They did spend a second-round pick in the 2022 draft on Georgia standout James Cook… and, to state the obvious, teams don’t just throw out a second-round pick on a guy they don’t plan on utilizing. While Devin Singletary still sits atop the RB depth chart, it would not be surprising to see James Cook involved in this game, especially as a pass catcher out of the backfield.

Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*Josh Allen, Gabe Davis, Dawson Knox: Standard CPTN QB + two receivers build. Though, this one is taking a leverage stance by not including Stefon Diggs.

*Cooper Kupp, Matthew Stafford, Matt Gay: A heavy LAR stack that could realistically have a hand in every point scored for the Rams.

*Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Allen Robinson II: Stafford racked up nearly 300 YPG through the air last season and, while certain things will have to happen for him to qualify as the optimal CPTN, pairing him with two of his primary pass catchers makes ample sense from a game flow perspective.

*Isaiah McKenzie, Josh Allen, Cooper Kupp: McKenzie is a cheap CPTN option that could realistically put up 15-20 DKFP and allow you to spend up on multiple premiere options at your flex. Since this game could easily turn into a bit of a shootout, you may want to jam in as many stud players in the flex as possible. Going with CPTN McKenzie is one way to do that (in GPPs).

*Gabe Davis, Josh Allen, Cam Akers: If Davis takes that next step forward this season and becomes more of a 1B option to 1A Stefon Diggs, then reasonably he should be well within the CPTN discussion tonight. Run the traditional CPTN WR + QB stack and run it back with Rams RB Cam Akers on the other side. 

That will wrap us up with the TNF kickoff edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!

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