By: Ryan Humphries

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NFL Week 15 Primetime Preview

It’s been a stressful week in the sports landscape due to all of the COVID craziness but on the bright side, we officially have at least one NFL game scheduled for eight of the next 10 days! So, here’s how things are looking during this 10 day football infused stretch:

Saturday - 1 NFL Game

Sunday - 10 NFL Games

Monday - 2 NFL Games

Tuesday - 2 NFL Games

Wednesday - None

Thursday - 1 NFL Game

Friday - None

Saturday - 2 NFL Games

Sunday - 12 NFL Games

Monday - 1 NFL Game

This is of course pending further postponements/rescheduling but that’s the outlook for now. In this newsletter today, we’ll be digging into the primetime games for Saturday and Sunday nights. Let’s get it!

Due to how the rosters are constructed for single-game NFL slates, this article is more geared towards a DraftKings-specific GPP approach.

New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (-2) | 45.5 O/U

NE: 21.8 implied points | IND: 23.8 implied points

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: RB Damien Harris (OUT), RB Brandon Bolden (Q), K Nick Folk (Q)

Score Prediction: NE - 23, IND - 20

Game Notes: The Patriots (9-4), on the heels of a seven-game win streak, ride into Lucas Oil Stadium to face the Colts (7-6) on a special edition of Saturday Night Football. Both teams are coming in off of their bye week and are battling for improved seeding in the AFC playoff standings. After a rough 2-4 start, the Patriots have been absolutely dominant and are considered by many to be the best team that the conference has to offer. Their defense is playing at an elite level and has allowed 10.4 PPG during this seven-game win streak. They’ve also been flawless on the road this season where they hold a 6-0 record. Meanwhile, despite his overall numbers being fairly pedestrian, rookie QB Mac Jones is simply doing what needs to be done in order to keep the Patriots in a good position during games. He’s taking great care of the ball while a strong Patriots rushing attack does the dirty work.

Speaking of rushing attacks, the Colts have the best healthy back in the league right now with Jonathan Taylor at the helm of the league’s second-best rushing offense (Colts: 151.7 rushing YPG). They currently reside as the AFC’s sixth seed and could really use a win to boost their chances of punching their ticket into the postseason. I’m predicting a close, low-scoring Patriots win but this could truly go either way. Expect a hard-fought battle between these two teams out in Indianapolis tonight!

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 NE, 4-2 IND

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

RB Jonathan Taylor: Both teams in this game possess strong run defenses (NE: 6th in run DVOA, IND: 5th in run DVOA). The Patriots have allowed more than 100 total rushing yards just once in their last fives games but, as we all know, Taylor is a beast and should command obvious captain consideration based on volume and touchdown potential alone.

RB Rhamondre Stevenson: Damien Harris is out tonight with a hamstring injury and Brandon Bolden is questionable to play. This clearly opens up an avenue for a more featured role to be had for rookie RB Rhamondre Stevenson. He has looked great in many games this season, showing off excellent vision and decisiveness when hitting the hole. Due to the 20+ touch potential here, Stevenson will be a popular captain target at $8,200 ($12,300 CPTN salary) but he could easily end as the game’s fantasy point leader.

TE Hunter Henry: The ceiling for Henry is limited as he has scored no more than 19.7 DKFP in any game this season. However, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him post his best performance of the year tonight. The Colts have actually been really stingy against WRs lately, allowing the second-fewest FPPG to the position over the last month. However, tight ends have flourished against the Colts who have surrendered the fourth-most FPPG to TEs. Without Damien Harris available, Mac Jones could be tasked with higher-than-usual passing volume and I believe Henry could be his primary target tonight, especially in the redzone where Henry has a lofty 24.1% TGT% and six TDs.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

WR Kendrick Bourne: Jakobi Meyers (69% slot) leads the Patriots with a 23.3% TGT% but he has a difficult match-up with Indy slot corner Kenny Moore II (Colts: fewest FPPG allowed to slot WRs L8Wks). This could lead to Bourne seeing a boost in targets. Mac Jones should have plenty of trust in Bourne as well, due to his excellent 79.2% catch% this season.

RB Nyheim Hines: The Colts WRs have an absolutely brutal match-up with this New England secondary, which has given up the fewest FPPG to WRs over the last month and third-fewest over the last eight weeks. You never really know when a “Nyheim Hines game” is going to happen, but the pass-catching specialist does have at least four targets in five of the last six games and should see a few carries as well (5.1 YPC). If the Colts find themselves playing “catch-up” and Jonathan Taylor is being contained, Hines will find himself on the field quite a bit.

Patriots D/ST: It is said constantly, but Bill Belichick si the master at taking away an opposing team’s top offensive threat. For the Colts, they have a very clear-cut offensive weapon in Jonathan Taylor and they come in with two weeks to prepare for this game. As mentioned above, New England is also 6-0 on the road this season and in those games they have allowed just 11.3 PPG while averaging 15.3 FPPG.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

K Nick Folk: While he is currently listed as questionable with a knee injury, the 37-year-old kicker has been a regular on the injury report this season so it would be a surprise to see him not take the field tonight. While no one gets all too excited about kickers in the fantasy football world, there is no denying that he has been a stud. He leads all NFL kickers with 11.3 FPPG and 147 FP -- that’s 17 FP more than second-place Justin Tucker. There are also no weather issues to be concerned about inside the domed Lucas Oil Stadium.

RB Brandon Bolden: Bolden is another player listed as “questionable” who should, in all likelihood, be active tonight. While Rhamondre Stevenson will be the primary benefactor from Damien Harris being out, Bolden should see a few extra snaps as well, particularly in passing situations where he’ll be the preferred option. Bolden’s $1,800 salary seems criminally low considering his PPR potential and the likelihood of cracking double-digit fantasy points.

WR Ashton Dulin: This is about as big of a flier as you could take but Dulin has been seeing his snaps creep up slightly and has hauled in a touchdown in back-to-back games. In passing situations, expect the Patriots to lock onto Michael Pittman Jr., the clear-cut top WR on the Colts offense. Dulin has a high 14.5-yard aDOT this season so, given his tendency to be utilized as a deep threat, he may only need one or two big catches to return value on his $1,400 salary.

Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*Jonathan Taylor, Mac Jones, Kendrick Bourne: If JT does JT things and runs wild on the ground, despite the stout Patriots defense, then slotting him in at CPTN with a Mac Jones bring back stack could work out nicely.

*Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots D/ST, Nyheim Hines: In a potential low-scoring environment with both teams deploying a run-heavy approach, Stevenson may very well end up being the highest owned CPTN. That won’t sway me away from him. When Damien Harris last missed a game in week 10, Stevenson handled 20 carries for 100 yards and two TDs while catching 4-of-5 targets. That was with a fairly low 55% snap%. He could push for a 60-70% snap% tonight.

*Hunter Henry, Mac Jones, Carson Wentz, Brandon Bolden: Going with a lower-priced CPTN like Henry ($6,400/$9,600 CPTN salary) along with an underpriced punt play like Bolden will easily open up enough room to roster both starting QBs (or one QB + Jonathan Taylor). Henry has some sneaky 20 DKFP potential in this game given the Colts recent stinginess versus WRs.

*Kendrick Bourne, Rhamondre Stevenson, Nick Folk: Bourne is my preferred Patriots WR to target, Stevenson should have strong guaranteed volume, and Nick Folk has been the best kicker in fantasy. If New England rolls tonight, this trio could make for a great “Patriots smash stack.”

Fade Jonathan Taylor and Rhamondre Stevenson (in the same lineup, not all together): Taylor and Stevenson are very likely to be the two highest-owned players in this game (including at the CPTN position). This match-up has all the makings of a lower-scoring “ground and pound” kind of atmosphere. But, as we should all be aware of by now, games oftentimes don’t play out how we predict they will. If both run games get stuffed (and, again, these are two strong run defenses -- both ranking top 6 in run DVOA) then perhaps a pass-happy game script develops. Fading Taylor and Stevenson is risky but might be worth doing in a couple of lineups just to be contrarian.

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-11) | 46.5 O/U

NO: 17.8 implied points | TB: 28.8 implied points

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: RB Leonard Fournette (Q), WR Lil’Jordan Humphrey (Q), WR Deonte Harris (OUT), RB Giovanni Bernard (OUT/IR), WR Antonio Brown (OUT)

Score Prediction: NO - 16, TB - 31

Game Notes: Tampa Bay finds themselves in a position to clinch the NFC South with a win on Sunday Night Football and, by all accounts, they’re a pretty safe bet to accomplish just that. And yet… since arriving in Tampa Bay, Tom Brady is 0-3 against the Saints in the regular season (but won against them in the divisional round of last year’s playoffs). The Saints got the best of the Bucs back in week eight but afterward went on to lose five consecutive games. They do have some momentum on their side following a 30-9 trouncing of the Jets… but it’s the Jets. New Orleans will need to play it’s best game of the season to beat the Bucs, who are 6-0 at home this season, and I just don’t see it happening. Betting against Brady when something meaningful is at stake (in this case, clinching the division along with pushing for the top overall seed in the NFC) never feels like a wise decision. I envision a comfortable double-digit victory for the Bucs in this one.

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 TB, 3-3 Balanced, 5-1 TB, 4-2 NO

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

QB Tom Brady: No-brainer here. The Saints rank first in overall run DVOA so passing on them does seem to be the better game plan. Brady went for 375 yards and four TDs against them back in week eight and with the top seed in the NFC up for grabs, along with the chance to clinch the division with a win, we should expect to see “Regular Season Playoff Brady” on Sunday night.

WR Chris Godwin: It’s fully expected that Saints top CB Marshon Lattimore will shadow Mike Evans for most/all of this game. Evans and Lattimore have a long history against each other and, based on that history, Lattimore has won the battle up to this point… most recently holding Evans to 2-48-1 back in week eight. Chris Godwin, on the other hand, feasted in this same match-up going 8-140-1 on 12 targets in week eight. Godwin has been Brady’s favorite target this season and his numbers have flourished in the absence of Antonio Brown, who hasn’t played since week six. Over the last two weeks, Godwin has an absurd 32 targets and should be a solid bet to see double-digit targets once again. The Saints allow the ninth-most FPPG to slot WRs (Godwin: 71% slot).

QB Taysom Hill: The Saints will be without both of their All-Pro tackles in this game with Ryan Ramczyk and Terron Armstead sidelined with knee injuries. It’s a big blow to the Saints offensive attack in general but it may lead to Taysom Hill needing to scramble around and make things happen with his legs… at least more so than he already would. In his two previous starts, Hill has ran 22 times for 174 yards and two TDs. He should basically be viewed as a running back with passing stats upside.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

TE Rob Gronkowski: When he’s been healthy, Gronk has been connecting with Brady in vintage fashion. Since returning from injury four games ago, Gronkowski is averaging 8.8 tgt/gm to go along with a 77% snap%. New Orleans has been tough against TEs (ninth-fewest FPPG) but he’s going to see targets from Brady regardless and will be a strong bet to bring in a touchdown along with a handful of catches.

RB Leonard Fournette: It may be tough to run against the Saints defense (first in run DVOA) but Fournette has become a do-it-all back with an incredibly strong PPR floor. He now has at least six targets in five straight games and is heavily utilized in redzone packages. Also, while Giovanni Bernard didn’t have a massive role, him going to IR should secure Fournette’s receiving floor even further. Fournette does come with a “questionable” designation at the moment but he returned to practice Friday and is expected to suit up on Sunday night.

RB Alvin Kamara: He gets a massive downgrade due to the match-up and the fact that both Saints tackles are going to be out for this game. However, that doesn’t take away from the fact that Kamara remains one of the most versatile running backs in the league and should be given serious volume in this game. Kamara also hasn’t scored below 14 DKFP in the last 10 starts against them. There is reasonable concern that Taysom Hill at QB deflates some of Kamara’s upside but that didn’t stop Kamara from handling 31 touches last week.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

Buccaneers D/ST: Averaging 11.2 FPPG at home this season and they should be able to pester Taysom Hill all night given the Saints banged up O-Line.

TE Nick Vannett: Relying on any Saints player outside of Taysom Hill and Alvin Kamara is a sizable risk. That’s fairly obvious; but there does seem to be a decent connection brewing between Hill and Vannett, who has brought in 6-of-10 targets over the last two weeks for 92 yards while playing on just under 70% of snaps. The Bucs aren’t particularly great at covering the middle of the field and have allowed the eighth-most FPPG to the tight end position.

WR Ty Montgomery: Before going on the reserve/COVID list and missing week 14, Montgomery played on exactly 51% of snaps in both the previous two games and was targeted seven times in both games. He also ran the ball 10 times as well. He didn’t get much production out of those targets and carries (9 receptions, 40 yards receiving, 35 yards rushing) but the Saints were clearly intent on getting him the ball. Montgomery should see meaningful snaps against the Bucs, especially with WR Deonte Harris currently serving a suspension. At a showdown salary of $1,200, he’s as viable of a punt play in this game as you will find.

Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*Tom Brady + Two Bucs Pass Catchers: Ahh, the classic Brady double stack. It’s worked out numerous times this season and it’s almost always viable. RB Leonard Fournette should be included in the “pass catcher” category.

*Chris Godwin, Tom Brady, Bucs D/ST: Godwin’s CPTN ownership may lead all players in this game but he’s been such a target magnet with Antonio Brown out of the picture. There’s no reason to believe the targets will dry up now, especially with the Evans vs. Lattimore battle going on on the perimeter.

*Taysom Hill, Nick Vannett, Leonard Fournette: The Saints are massive underdogs here and may struggle to crack 20 points, but there is nothing better in fantasy football than a QB with rushing upside. Hill has shown big play ability the last two weeks and should maintain CPTN viability.

*Alvin Kamara, Rob Gronkowski, Ty Montgomery: Given the match-up, Kamara should see some moderately low CPTN ownership, especially with the Saints O-Line injuries factored in. But his potential for 25+ touches and multiple touchdowns keep him well within play.

4-2 Saints Builds: Normally, I’d predict a 5-1 “smash” build to be a nice contrarian approach but I believe we’ll see only around 10% of GPP entries deploy 4-2 Saints lineups. If the Saints keep things close or manage to pull off the upset, this could certainly be the optimal approach… though it isn’t overly likely.

That will wrap us up for the Saturday & Sunday Night Football Preview! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck tonight!

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