By: Ryan Humphries

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NFL Week 14 Primetime Preview

I hope everyone has smashed that Sunday main slate by the time you’re reading this! Once the afternoon games are all wrapped up, two NFC divisional games will await us in primetime on Sunday and Monday nights! SNF will feature a pair of NFC North foes battle it out in the NFL’s oldest rivalry with the Bears (4-8) traveling to Lambeau Field to face the Packers (9-3) and their self-proclaimed owner, Aaron Rodgers. Meanwhile, MNF will have some legitimate “game of the week” potential with a huge NFC West clash between the Rams (8-4) and Cardinals (10-2). Let’s see if we can wreak some havoc on some showdown DFS contests for these two primetime match-ups, shall we?

Note: At the time of this writing, DraftKings showdown salaries are not available for the MNF game.

Due to how the rosters are constructed for single-game NFL slates, this article is more geared towards a DraftKings-specific GPP approach.

Perfect Lineups from Week 13 Primetime Games

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-11.5) | 43 O/U

CHI: 15.8 implied points | GB: 27.3 implied points

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: QB Andy Dalton (Doubtful), WR Randall Cobb (IR), WR Marquise Goodwin (Doubtful)

Score Prediction: CHI - 17, GB - 28

Game Notes: There is no love lost between these two old rivals but each team certainly has different goals in mind heading into Sunday Night Football. The Packers still have their eye on the number one overall seed in the NFC as they sit one game behind the Cardinals, who could easily fall to the Rams on MNF. Meanwhile, the Bears are losers in six of their last seven games, with their lone win in that stretch coming by a score of 16-14 against the lowly Lions in a Thanksgiving Day snoozer. At this point, Chicago is basically entering into “damage control” territory. Rookie Justin Fields will be holding the reigns to the Bears offense once again after a ribs injury held him out of the previous two games. The first meeting between Fields and the Packers back in week six did not go all too well en route to a 14-24 loss. Now that the Packers will be taking the field at home while coming out of a bye week, I’d wager we likely see another double-digit margin of victory for the Packers in this one.

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 GB, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 CHI, 5-1 GB “Smash” Build

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

QB Aaron Rodgers: Does Rodgers love playing the Bears? I’d say so. He’s 21-5 against them in his career with a 57:10 TD:INT ratio and 7% of his throws versus the Bears have gone for touchdowns. The Bears are allowing a lofty 74.5% completion rate over their last four games and three of the QBs they have faced in that stretch were Jared Goff, Tyler Huntley, and Ben Roethlisberger. Coming out of the bye week, Rodgers should be able to carve this Bears secondary up on SNF.

WR Davante Adams: Bears CB Jaylon Johnson shadowed Adams for the majority of his routes back in week six and ended up holding him to a modest (by Davante Adams standards) four catches on five targets for 89 yards. We’re likely going to see Adams draw the same shadow treatment again tonight but I wouldn’t let the fairly lackluster performance in week six scare me away from utilizing him as a captain option. Adams leads the NFL with a 32.5% TGT% and had by far the highest ceiling of any individual player in this game.

WR Darnell Mooney: He’s having a solid sophomore season and has really stepped into the Bears WR1 role as of late. In the last five games, Mooney has racked up 24 receptions for 376 yards (75.2 YPG) and three TDs. On the season, he possesses a near-elite 26.2% TGT%. He certainly seems to be a favorite target of Justin Fields and the Bears are likely to find themselves in a come-from-behind game script this evening.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling: MVS is the home run hitter in this Packers receiving corps; that is clearly evident from his huge 19.4-yard aDOT. While you cannot really depend on a guy like MVS to provide a safe floor, he is the sort of player who can bring GPP winning upside to DFS lineups. He has also played on 81% and 70% of snaps in the last two games while commanding 19 combined targets.

RB David Montgomery: If the Bears hope to pull of the primetime upset, they’re going to need to establish the run with David Montgomery. He was out during the week six match-up this season but in two games against the Packers in 2020, Montgomery scored a pair of TDs and amassed 172 yards rushing on 33 carries (5.2 YPC) while also catching 14-of-15 targets for 103 yards. The Packers are allowing the eight-fewest FPPG to RBs however they’ve faced the sixth-fewest rush attempts and rank 27th in run DVOA, so it’s certainly possible to run on ‘em.

RB AJ Dillon: Aaron Jones returned from his knee injury in week 12 but Dillon still went on to out-touch Jones 25 to 10, which included catching all five of his targets. Another week off to get closer to 100% should have certainly helped out Jones but Dillon isn’t all of a sudden going to get phased out completely and he seems severely underpriced at only $4,400. We may see a near 50/50 backfield split for the foreseeable future as the Packers look to keep Jones healthy for the playoffs. The potential for 15-ish touches makes Dillon a noticeable bargain in this game.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

Packers D/ST: The Bears carry a measly 15.8 implied point total into Lambeau Field and the Packers D/ST has averaged 11.2 FPPG at home this season. If you roll out any 5-1 Packers “smash” builds, I’d probably look to have the Packers D/ST in most, if not all, of those lineups.

TE Cole Kmet: When Justin Fields is in at QB, Kmet has averaged 11.8 DKFP/gm to go along with a strong 20% redzone TGT%. Kmet is also dominating tight end snaps with an 80% snap% over the last month.

WR Allen Robinson II: ARob is averaging a whopping 7.8 DKFP/gm this season and is coming off of a hamstring injury that has kept him out since week nine. It’s quite the fall from grace after a monster 2020 season. The talent is still there and surely the chemistry with Fields will click at some point, right? Few people will be able to stomach putting Robinson into lineups so consider him to be a heavy leverage play. 

Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Marquez Valdes-Scantling: This is the highest upside Rodgers double stack on the board. Unfortunately, it will leave you with an average of $4,400 left remaining per player so, if this ends up being the optimal stack, hitting on the right fliers will be crucial.

*Davante Adams, Justin Fields, Cole Kmet: No other player in this game has as much 30+ DKFP potential as Adams. Rolling with CPTN Adams and running it back with a Fields + Bears pass catcher stack makes solid sense.

*Darnell Mooney, AJ Dillon, Marquez Valdes-Scantling: I don’t believe Robinson’s return will have a major impact on Mooney’s targets (9.3 tgt/gm L4Gms) and he should continue to operate as the WR1 on this offense. Prior to last week, Mooney ripped off 20+ DKFP in three straight games so he’s firmly withing captain consideration from a leverage standpoint.

*AJ Dillon, Packers D/ST, David Montgomery: CPTN Dillon will only run you $6,600 in salary and if the Packers continue to be cautious with Aaron Jones’ workload, a 20+ DKFP day is within reach. From a game flow perspective, I like the idea of pairing the Packers D/ST with Dillon as well.

5-1 Packers “Smash” Builds: The well-rested Packers could easily come out and crush the Bears at home in Lambeau Field tonight. No one is going to be shocked if this ends up being a 31-10 kinda game, in which case 5-1 Packers builds would very much be in play. Even when teams are heavily favored, such as the Packers (-11.5) are, these 5-1 builds usually will only make up around 10-15% of total entries in GPPs. 

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) | 51 O/U

LAR: 24.3 implied points | ARI: 26.8 implied points

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: RB Darrell Henderson Jr. (Out), RB Chase Edmonds (IR - Could be designated to return and be a game time decision)

Score Prediction: LAR - 27, ARI - 28

Game Notes: We have a high postseason impact game on tap here between a pair of NFC West foes. Despite being without Kyler Murray for three games prior to last week, the Cardinals held it together and fought their way to a 2-1 record in the Kyler-less stretch. Murray of course returned in week 13 and Arizona was able to cruise to a fairly comfortable victory over the Bears, making them the first team in the NFL to reach double-digit wins this season. Meanwhile, in week 13, the Rams were able to put a no-win November in their rear view and came out firing against Jacksonville, obliterating them by a score of 37-7. When these teams last met in week four, it resulted in a 37-20 statement win for the Cardinals and ever since then the Rams have been looking up at Arizona in the NFC West standings. I believe we see a much more closely contested match-up on Monday night -- it’s a true coin flip kinda game in my mind.

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 ARI, 4-2 LAR

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

WR Cooper Kupp: There is no shortage of viable captain options in this game but Kupp has just been on another level than everyone else this season. On a per game basis, he’s averaging over 11 targets/gm, over 8 receptions/gm, over 110 yards/gm, and nearly a TD/gm (11 TDs in 12 games). His worst game of the season actually came against these Cardinals back in that week four clash when Kupp brought in only five catches for 64 yards -- he was still targeted 13 times that game so chalk it up to an off week for the Stafford-to-Kupp connection.

QB Kyler Murray: If there is one “cheat code” in fantasy football, it’s a QB who has strong rushing capability. Kyler is one of the most elusive QBs in the history of the NFL but he has not been utilized as a runner much this season. However, he is coming off of a week 13 game where he ran 10 times for 59 yards and a pair of rushing TDs -- the rushing attempts and yardage were both a season-high for Murray. His previous season high in rushing yardage before that? Week 4 against the Rams (39 yards). Now, whether or not Murray starts utilizing his running ability on a more routine basis going forward remains to be seen. I wouldn’t say it’s overly likely given his small frame and recent injury history over the last couple seasons. But given the importance of this game, I’d say Kliff Kingsbury and the Cardinals pull out all the stops in order to get a dub on Monday night. That may mean Murray’s upside is fully unlocked with some additional designed QB runs thrown into the game plan.

RB Sony Michel: Darrell Henderson Jr. was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list on Thursday evening meaning Michel will have a featured role in back-to-back weeks. With Henderson sidelined with a thigh injury last week, Michel played a whopping 96% of snaps and turned 27 total touches into 129 yards and a TD. It’s not a bad match-up either as the Cardinals have allowed the ninth-most FPPG to RBs over their last four games. Certainly there is some captain-worthy upside to be had by way of the sheer touch volume that Michel is expected to receive. 

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

WR DeAndre Hopkins: Despite missing three games and just having a relative down year overall, Hopkins’ eight redzone touchdowns this season trails only Cooper Kupp (10) and Adam Thielen (9) among NFL receivers. Kyler Murray only had to attempt 15 passes last week so I wouldn’t view Hopkins’ two-target game in a negative light as he returned from his three game absence. The match-up here isn’t phenomenal and Hopkins likely sees a good bit of Jalen Ramsey and Darious Williams. However, overall, the Rams have ranked 11th in pass DVOA and have allowed the 11th most FPPG to WRs, so they’re far from unbeatable through the air.

WR Van Jefferson Jr.: I’m loving the confidence that the Rams are showing in Jefferson. Even with Odell Beckham Jr. in the mix, Jefferson seems to have grabbed hold of the WR2 job in L.A. following the loss of Robert Woods (ACL). Jefferson has played on 91% of snaps in the last four weeks, has been targeted at least six times in six straight games, and has scored at least 11.8 DKFP in 4-of-6 of those games with three TDs.

RB James Conner: Chase Edmonds is shaping up to be a game time decision after landing on IR with an ankle injury and missing the last three games. Conner was already having a better-than-expected season prior to the Edmonds injury, but he has definitely stepped it up over the last month. In Arizona’s last four games, Conner has played 80% of snaps and has averaged 23.9 FPPG while scoring six TDs. Even if Edmonds is active, Conner should be expected to hang on to a more featured role, though his receiving upside does take a hit. 

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

WR AJ Green: He may be past his prime but Green is filling in the role of a reliable veteran receiver nicely. He has played 82% of snaps this year while commanding just over five targets per game. His usage increases in the redzone where he has a pretty lofty 23.4% TGT%. Among Cardinal WRs, Green likely gets to run the most routes against Rams third CB Donte Deayon.

K Matt Gay OR Matt Prater: We have a domed match-up with a 50+ point total and a tight spread. Both kickers appear to be solid value targets with some double-digit FP upside.

WR Rondale Moore: Moore will be the ultimate boom-or-bust gamble in this game. He’s playing under 50% of snaps this season and almost all of his targets are coming around the line of scrimmage (1.4-yard aDOT). He is catching nearly every target he gets (84.2% catch%) and has the explosiveness to take any touch he gets to the house. The range of outcomes with Moore are pretty wide… basically as low as two fantasy points or as high as 25+ FP. But there won’t be many other players in this game (who actually get a considerable amount of snaps) that will be as low-owned as Moore. 

Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*Cooper Kupp, Matthew Stafford, Sony Michel: This Rams team stack could reasonably provide your with exposure to every LAR touchdown scored.

*Kyler Murray, AJ Green, Rondale Moore: If Murray is going to continue running the ball a bit more, then a double stack may not be necessary when rolling him out at captain. With that said, he still has plenty of interesting stack combinations available which makes “CPTN Murray lineups” some of the best kind of lineups to build from a GPP perspective. You can get some really unique lineups built with Murray + some combination of two (or more) Cardinals receivers.

*Sony Michel, Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins: Michel should be a near lock for 20+ touches on MNF and if the Rams can manage to grab hold of a lead, they’ll feed him even more. From a game flow standpoint, that would make a Kyler Murray + WR (or TE) FLEX stack appealing to run it back with CPTN Michel lineups.

*James Conner, Sony Michel, Matt Gay: If the under hits in this game, there’s a good chance that Conner and Michel both received plenty of run (20+ touches each) and several drives stalled out potentially leading to additional FG attempts for Matt Gay (or Matt Prater). People will be expecting a high-scoring game here so this feels like a nice leverage stack.

*Van Jefferson Jr., Matthew Stafford, Kyler Murray: Cooper Kupp is the man in this offense, no one is questioning that. But before this season is over, I feel like a monster Van Jefferson Jr. game is in the cards at some point. He’s getting a massive amount of snaps ever since Robert Woods went down and he’s only earning more and more trust from Stafford and the coaching staff. If he ever draws 10+ targets in a game, look out! Rolling Jefferson at CPTN makes it fairly manageable to fit both QBs into the FLEX.

That will wrap us up for the SNF/MNF Preview! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck tonight!

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