By: Ryan Humphries

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NFL Week 13 Primetime Preview

After you’re done (hopefully) raking in the dough from the Sunday main slate, we’ll have a pair of primetime showdowns to look ahead to! SNF and MNF will feature two divisional tilts -- one from the AFC West with the Broncos visiting the Chiefs and the other out in the AFC East with the highly anticipated clash between the Bills versus the Patriots. Let’s get right down to business and dive on in!

Note: At the time of this writing, DraftKings showdown salaries are not available for the MNF game.

Due to how the rosters are constructed for single-game NFL slates, this article is more geared towards a DraftKings-specific GPP approach.

Perfect Lineups from Week 12 Primetime Games

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-9) | 46.5 O/U

DEN: 19.0 implied points | KC: 28.0 implied points

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: RB Melvin Gordon III (hip/shoulder) - OUT, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (illness) - Questionable (expected to play)

Score Prediction: DEN - 21, KC - 27

Game Notes: It’s an extremely tight race out in the AFC West with the Chiefs (7-4) holding onto a one-game lead over the Broncos, Raiders, and Chargers who are all locked up at 6-5 (at the time of this writing). Depending on what happens with the Raiders and Chargers on Sunday afternoon, the Chiefs have a chance to extend their lead to two games over everyone else with a win, or perhaps things simply end up even more deadlocked if Denver pulls off the upset while LV and LAC earn wins of their own. Either way, I believe we get a closer game than the nine-point spread would suggest. The Chiefs are certainly hitting their stride at an opportunistic time of the season and the Broncos do have some defensive injuries which KC could exploit. When they’re firing on all cylinders, the Chiefs can blow out any team in the NFL. Patrick Mahomes is also 7-0 against Denver in his career but he has looked like less of a superhuman in 2021. When it’s all said and done, I see the Chiefs walking away victorious, but by a single score winning margin.

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 KC, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 DEN, 5-1 KC (fairly light exposure)

Weather Note: Winds around 15 mph during this game. Those are just high enough wind speeds to where we may see slightly fewer downfield pass attempts, but overall nothing that should impact the game itself all too much.

Players & Stacks to Consider

Note: Going forward with these “Primetime Previews” instead of hitting on nearly every viable option, I will instead be highlighting fewer players and focusing more on my favorite plays at each “level” (captain/core plays, flex/leverage captain plays, and filler/flier/sleeper type plays).

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

WR Tyreek Hill: Volume, volume, volume. Hill has had it in droves this season. His 11.1 tgt/gm ranks second in the NFL and he is heavily involved in redzone packages as well (25% RZ TGT%) -- and he has caught 71.4% of his redzone targets. The Broncos excel at defending the tight end position (5th fewest FPPG allowed) so this could be a somewhat “down” game for Kelce and a potential ceiling game for Tyreek. The Broncos have allowed the 4th most FPPG to slot WRs over the last four weeks and Hill has been running the slight majority of his routes (52%) on the inside.

QB Patrick Mahomes: Will Mahomes be worth the $18,600 you’ll have to fork over when slotting him in at CPTN? Well, I wish I could supply a confident answer to that question. He has only one game over 15 DKFP in his last five starts… but it was one of those patented massive Mahome games against Las Vegas in week 10 (406 yards, 5 TDs, 39.24 DKFP). The Chiefs are coming out of their bye week so I’ll put a fair amount of faith in Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes having had two weeks to prepare for this game at home.

RB Javonte Williams: The Denver backfield has been nearly a true 50/50 split this season but with Melvin Gordon III out tonight, we’ll finally get to see what the rookie can do with a more complete workload. Per NextGenStats.com, Williams’ 0.79 Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt ranks 6th among NFL RBs this season and he’s been among the league’s best at forcing missed tackles. While KC hasn’t allowed a ton of production to RBs this season, they’ve also faced the fifth-fewest rushing attempts from opposing RBs and rank 28th in run DVOA. We can expect Williams to be a game flow independent back tonight -- so when the game is close or if Denver plays with a lead, Williams will get fed carries. If Denver falls behind, Williams should stay involved in the passing game. He’s absolutely worthy of some captain consideration in my book.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

WR Jerry Jeudy: A breakout sophomore season was hampered by the ankle injury Jeudy sustained way back in week one and he has yet to post a huge stat line in five starts this year. However, I do believe he puts up a couple of big games before the season’s end and now that the Broncos head into Arrow Head as near double-digit underdogs, maybe tonight is the night for Jeudy to blow up. Jeudy has been utilized out of the slot on 75% of his routes this season and the Chiefs have allowed the second-most FPPG to slot WRs over the last four weeks.

QB Teddy Bridgewater: Tonight, we can likely expect Bridgewater to exceed the 30.8 pass attempts which he has averaged on a per-game basis this season. Between Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, Noah Fant, and Javonte Williams out of the backfield, Bridgewater has a talented set of receiving options around him. With a few big plays after the catch from those guys, Teddy has enough of upside to be a prime FLEX candidate at $9,800 and decent CPTN leverage at $14,700.

WR Byron Pringle: Ranks second among Chiefs WRs with 0.254 FP/snap this season behind Tyreek (0.388 FP/snap). His total snap share has been creeping as the season has gone on and if the Broncos do manage to keep Kelce in check, Pringle could be a favorite target for Mahomes behind Tyreek Hill. He’s extremely easy to fit into lineups with a salary of only $1,800.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

RB Mike Boone: While Javonte Williams should be in line for a featured three-down role, Boone is expected to serve as the Broncos No. 2 RB tonight. While he may only see a handful of touches, he’s priced at the stone minimum of $200 so he stands out as one of the more obvious dart throws on the board tonight.

TE Albert Okwuegbunam: He’s behind Noah Fant on the depth chart but he has earned meaningful snaps this season and should be on the field for around 40-50% of snaps tonight. Denver is among the top 10 offenses when it comes to running two-plus TE sets and the Chiefs have allowed the seventh-most FPPG to the position. He may only see a few targets, but at a showdown salary of $1,400, if Albert O snares all of his looks and ‘luck boxes’ his way to a touchdown, he could easily come away as an optimal FLEX play.

K Harrison Butker: While the ~15 mph winds at Arrow Head may not make things easy for the kickers tonight, Butker should be used to those sort of conditions in his home stadium and will carry a fairly strong median projection for a player who is under the $5k salary range. The Broncos defense is also good enough to cause some of the more extended Chiefs drives to stall out before they get too deep into the redzone, where the likelihood of offenses going for it on fourth down increases.

Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*Tyreek Hill, Patrick Mahomes, Jerry Jeudy: Tyreek will be a near-lock to see another 10+ targets tonight and the stinginess of the Denver D versus opposing TEs only boosts my confidence in rolling with Tyreek at CPTN, assuming Kelce posts one of his more pedestrian stat lines in this game.

*Javonte Williams, Mike Boone, Tyreek Hill: I’m fully prepared to be disappointed, but I can’t wait to see what Williams can do with a potential 20+ touch workload. He was a mainstay in my CFB DFS lineups in recent years and the guy is just a truly gifted runner. Since his expected backup, Mike Boone, is only $200, I don’t mind playing both backs in the same lineup. Perhaps the Broncos surprise us all and play with a lead for much of this game (equaling more run plays). It wouldn’t be the most unlikely game flow to imagine with the way this season has played out.

*Patrick Mahomes + Two Chiefs Pass Catchers: If Mahomes is on top of his game this evening and comes away as the optimal CPTN play, he’ll most certainly have (at least) two of his receivers check in with strong optimal FLEX performances.

*Teddy Bridgewater, Jerry Jeudy, Clyde Edwards-Helaire: Teddy went for 310 yards on 36-of-49 passing with three total TDs against Kansas City on the road last season, so he’s not venturing into uncharted territory here. It’s a stretch to expect a similar performance tonight, but it’s really not all that far-fetched as you may think. While this KC defense has been stepping it up lately after beginning the year on a historically bad pace, they’ve mostly been thriving off of turnovers in recent weeks (11 TOs in the last six games). If there is one thing Bridgewater excels at, it is taking care of the ball. He has accounted for zero turnovers in the Broncos last four games and hasn’t turned it over in 8-of-11 games this season.

5-1 Chiefs “Smash” Builds: I can spout off all the analysis and mumbo jumbo in the world about how the Broncos can keep this game fairly close tonight, and then Patrick Mahomes & Co. can come out and simply boat race Denver start to finish. These 5-1 “smash” builds in showdown tournaments have been winning at a higher rate than expected this season and typically only around 10% of total GPP entries will deploy this sort of lineup construction. If you play multiple showdown lineups (along the lines of 20+ LUs), there’s always major leverage to be had by rolling out a 5-1 lineup build here and there.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-3) | 41 O/U

NE: 19.0 implied points | BUF: 22.0 implied points

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: RB Brandon Bolden (knee) - Questionable

Score Prediction: NE - 25, BUF - 22

Game Notes: If you told me at the start of the season that we’d be in week 13 and the Patriots (8-4) would be riding a six game winning streak while sitting atop the AFC East standings despite being led by a rookie QB and paired in the same division as the Bills… well, just Google “blinking guy meme” and that’d pretty much be my reaction. It’s the Patriots and it’s Bill Belichick… so should anyone really be surprised? Probably not. Mac Jones has done a superb job at doing exactly what he needs to do to keep New England in games this season, the run game is solid, but the real driving force for the Pats success has been their stalwart defensive play over the last month-and-a-half. A win in Buffalo on Monday night will give them a two-game cushion in the AFC East as we head into the final five weeks of the regular season.

On the Bills (7-4) side, a primetime victory will give them the division lead and some much-needed momentum down the stretch. So what version of the Bills will we see? Over the last month, they have acquired one of the most head-scratching losses of the season, falling in week 9 to Jacksonville with a 6-9 score, and two weeks later they were absolutely trounced by the Indianapolis Jonathan Taylors when they fell 15-41. On the flip side, they predictably T.C.O.B. against an awful Jets team and the skidding, but not completely terrible, Saints -- winning those two games by a combined score of 76-23. Many of Buffalo’s problems have stemmed from turnovers, which Josh Allen has up to eight of in that four game stretch. Given the dicey weather that is expected to hit Buffalo on Monday night, I believe whoever wins the turnover battle will ultimately win this game. However, a close second indicator on who emerges with the win here will come down to whoever finds the most success on the ground. Right now, I envision New England taking better care of the ball and racking up more yardage on the ground, so I’ll give them the slight nod. But it’s anyone’s game here and should be a fun one!

Weather Note: Winds in the 20-25 mph range (40+ mph gusts) with near-freezing temperatures and the possibility of some snow. It’s not the absolute ugliest weather imaginable but, as you can tell from my score prediction, I do think it will lead to a bit of an unusual final result due to some missed kicks and/or an increased likelihood of some two-point attempts. Deep pass attempts may be few and far between as well. Weather in Buffalo can change on a dime, so double check the forecast closer to kickoff before making any final lineup decisions.

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 BUF, 4-2 NE

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

QB Josh Allen: Against this defense (NE: 2nd in pass DVOA) in these weather conditions, we likely aren’t getting a massive game through the air out of Allen. But, as we all know, he can do plenty of damage running the ball (34.8 rushing YPG). Of course, I would expect Bill Belichick to implement a defensive game plan focused around stopping Allen from running wild but if Buffalo stands a chance at winning this game, Allen will need to post a dynamic performance.

RB Damien Harris: The Pats are utilizing a true RBBC with Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Brandon Bolden. Bolden is the change of pace back, currently listed as questionable but is on track to play after logging some limited practices this week. Stevenson has also looked solid when given extended opportunities and has averaged over 5.0 YPC in each of the last four games. Prognosticating the New England backfield has been an exercise in futility for many years now but Harris does seem to be the most trusted guy in the redzone and did go for 102 yards and a score on 16 carries against Buffalo last season. In a game environment that may put an additional focus on the ground game, I’ll slightly side with Harris among the Pats RBs… but Stevenson and even Bolden deserve some consideration as well.

WR Cole Beasley: With the downfield passing game hampered by potential high winds, a dink-and-dunk approach with some low aDOT targets might be how both teams look to move the ball through the air. Beasley (19.8% TGT%) has one of those short range aDOTs (5.6 yards) and has caught 78.5% of his targets this season. With more people likely to favor Stefon Diggs as a CPTN selection, there is some low ownership appeal for Beasley.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

WR Kendrick Bourne: The Bills recently lost Tre’Davious White, one of the top DBs in the league, to a season-ending knee injury. That will take some pressure off of the Pats perimeter receivers as Dane Jackson steps in for the injured White while Levi Wallace mans the other boundary. Neither guy is nearly as talented as White. While it hasn’t been a high-volume role, Kendrick Bourne has been a major factor in the Pats passing game, particularly throughout this six-game win streak. He has certainly earned the trust of his rookie QB by catching just under 80% of his targets this season! Bourne has produced 11.8 yards per target and Mac Jones should continue to go his way, hopefully on a more routine basis (Bourne only averaging 4.4 tgt/gm).

RB Matt Breida: Despite playing on just 47 snaps in the last three games, Breida has been extremely effective earning 0.855 FP/snap. The Bills backfield has been fairly ineffective this year while working with a committee approach featuring Devin Singletary and Zack Moss. Breida has added a spark out of the backfield and it would not be a surprise to see his snaps and opportunities trend upwards.

Patriots D/ST: As mentioned above, Josh Allen has had some real problems with turning the ball over lately and this Patriots unit is the wrong defense to be going up against if you’re not taking care of the ball. On top of that, you can add in the whole bad weather factor into the mix. Across their six-game win streak, the Pats D/ST is averaging 16.3 FPPG.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

WR Gabriel Davis: We all know how notorious Belichick is for taking away a team’s top offensive weapon. In the Bills case, it’s Stefon Diggs. If Diggs gets shut down, perhaps a guy like Gabriel Davis sees a couple extra opportunities. At the time of this writing, I don’t have showdown salaries for this game to base any decisions on, but I expect Davis will be cheap enough to where he could return value with two or three big catches with the potential for a TD. Davis is among the league leaders with an 18.4 yards per reception average this season.

TE Jonnu Smith: In a run-heavy environment, expect to see an elevated amount of heavy packages which should feature 2+ tight end sets. Hunter Henry leads the Pats TEs with a 69% snap% on the year but Jonnu Smith has still also been on the field around half the time. His snap% could trend more towards the 60-70% range in this game which should only add opportunities for targets. Smith has seen just half a target less per game than Henry but will check in as the more affordable option.

RB Brandon Bolden: *Assuming he is active. I get this feeling that if James White was healthy, this would be the sort of game he thrives in. Well, Bolden is operating mostly in the “James White role” and as long as he is not too hampered by that knee injury (currently expected to play) then I could see a nice PPR-friendly day out of him with a few runs mixed in here and there. Bolden is also a key redzone weapon and has caught 100% of his redzone targets this season.

Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*Josh Allen, Cole Beasley, Kendrick Bourne: It won’t be an easy pathway to becoming the optimal CPTN play, but Allen’s strong arm combined with his size, speed, and athleticism will make him an easy target despite the premium price tag. I don’t believe you have to force a double stack with him but, for reasons mentioned above, Beasley might be my favorite stack piece to pair along with him.

*Damien Harris, Jonnu Smith, Patriots D/ST: While Buffalo is tough to run against, you get the feeling that at least one of these Pats RBs has strong showdown upside. Harris is my favorite candidate simply due to touchdown potential. Pairing him with the Pats D/ST makes sense from positive correlation perspective.

*Cole Beasley, Mac Jones, Kendrick Bourne: While he has been fairly quiet in recent games, Beasley has three 20+ FP games in PPR scoring this season and, given the ugly weather, he could realistically command 10+ targets on Monday night. Rolling with a Mac Jones + Pass Catcher stack in the FLEX feels like a nice bring back approach with CPTN Beasley. And if you could also fit Josh Allen in, even better.

*Matt Breida, Dawson Knox, Bills D/ST: Taking the same approach as the Harris/Smith/Pats D stack above. Breida has made a strong case for himself to be involved in more of a featured role. Knox is a reliable redzone target for Allen. And the Bills D/ST could end up giving Mac Jones problems in these rough conditions that could really test the rookie QB.

*Patriots D/ST, Rhamondre Stevenson, Hunter Henry: While it’s unlikely to happen here, we saw the Pats D/ST end the night as the optimal CPTN play when they went up against the Falcons in primetime two weeks ago. Obviously: Bills Offense > Falcons Offense. And there were some laughable interceptions in garbage time during that ATL/NE game. But, hey, Josh Allen has been fairly careless with the ball recently and the Patriots have been extremely opportunistic.

That will wrap us up for the SNF/MNF Preview! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck tonight!

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