By: Ryan Humphries

Find me on Twitter and in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries 

Catch up on all other LineStar NFL content:

🏈 2021 NFL Season Preview & Strategy Guide

🥇 Single Game Showdown Tips & Strategy (Top Half of the Article)

🔊 PreSnap Podcast every Tuesday, Thursday & Friday!

👇 Subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts! 👇

iTunes | Google Podcasts | Spotify | iHeartRADIO | Stitcher | YouTube

Due to format discrepancies between DraftKings and FanDuel along with how lineups are constructed for single-game contests, this article is more geared towards a DraftKings-focused GPP approach.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-13) | 42 O/U

MIN: 14.5 implied points | GB: 27.5 implied points

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: QB Kirk Cousins (Out), TE Tyler Conklin (Questionable, expected to play), WR Adam Thielen (Out), WR Randall Cobb (Out)

Score Prediction: MIN - 13, GB - 31

Game Notes: Well, there were plenty of playoff implications surrounding this primetime match-up between these two bitter NFC North rivals -- technically there still is… unfortunately much of the intrigue surrounding this game flew out the window when Kirk Cousins was ruled out after being placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list on Friday. Minnesota’s postseason hopes were already fairly slim, but now, without Cousins available tonight, those hopes are all but dashed. Green Bay will clinch the NFC’s No. 1 seed, thus securing a first-round bye and home field advantage, if they win this game and Dallas loses against Arizona this afternoon. Of course, the DAL/ARI result will be known by the time this game kicks off, but the main point here is that Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have plenty to play for and will be highly motivated to notch a win against the Vikings this evening. Vikings QB Sean Mannion will draw his third career start tonight while third-string rookie Kellen Mond will serve as the backup. Bizarre and unexpected things happen all the time in the NFL (90% of those things revolving around Antonio Brown, apparently) but it’s hard to imagine the Vikings pulling off this massive upset in Lambeau Field tonight.

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 GB, 5-1 GB, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 MIN (light MME exposure in GPPs)

Weather Note: It's going to be COLD (10° F) at Lambeau Field tonight. It's possible that the cold weather could lead to a heavier focus on the run game but, at least in the Packers case, Aaron Rodgers has not seen a drastic dip in his passing numbers in frigid conditions.

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

WR Davante Adams: There is not much persuasion needed here, right? Adams continues to command a 30+ target share and gets to face one of the softest pass defenses in the NFL. Minnesota has allowed the most FPPG to opposing WRs this season and Adams is likely to see plenty of coverage from aging veteran corner Patrick Peterson. When these teams faced each other in week 11, Adams caught 7-of-8 targets for 115 yards and two scores -- good for a cool 33.5 DKFP.

QB Aaron Rodgers: Here is your second obvious captain selection tonight. Rodgers is completing over 70% of his passes in the last month while averaging three TDs/gm. He posted his best fantasy game of the season against this Vikings defense in week 11, passing for 385 yards and 4 TDs, resulting in 36.5 DKFP. The likely difference this time around is that there is not much shootout potential to be had in this second meeting between these two teams (Vikings won 34-31 in week 11). If Green Bay stays aggressive even in a blowout, Rodgers could easily throw for another 300+ yards and three or four scores. The blowout concern is real, however.

RB Dalvin Cook: If the Vikings make this game remotely competitive, Dalvin Cook is going to be the primary reason why they’re able to do so. The Packers run defense has been leaky recently, allowing 166 YPG on the ground in the last three weeks. Cook should also likely see a fair amount of check-down targets from Sean Mannion. Overall, the 20+ touch volume should still be there for Cook. If he’s able to find his way into the endzone for one of Minnesota’s likely one or two touchdowns, then there’s a decent chance he can come away as the optimal captain selection.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

WR KJ Osborn: The Packers will likely load the box to stop Cook on early downs while putting heavy coverage on WR Justin Jefferson in passing situations. With Adam Thielen done for the season, Osborn was already in line to see a 90+% snap share and he could end up being the forgotten man in a game script that should lead to a Vikings pass-heavy approach.

QB Sean Mannion: Since the Cousins news broke after showdown salaries were released, Mannion’s showdown salary has not been adjusted to reflect him as the starter. It will be an uphill battle for Mannion in terms of returning decent value, but it is hard to completely ignore a starting QB when they are priced at just $6,000. 

RB AJ Dillon: Over the last month, Dillon has a 47% snap% compared to a 52% snap% for RB Aaron Jones. There is strong upside for Jones to succeed, but in a blowout scenario Dillon may end up seeing the most run out of the Packers backfield. Dillon averaged 4.8 YPC and caught 6-of-6 targets against the Vikings in week 11, though Jones was unavailable to play in that game. Regardless, the Packers run game should be heavily featured tonight.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

Packers D/ST: There is not a ton of risk in rolling with this Packers D/ST against an inexperienced backup QB. They provide a solid median projection at a $4,000 price tag. The Packers D/ST has scored at least 13 FP in four of their last six games.

WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling: MVS will see some deep shots and will only need to connect with Rodgers on one or two of those passes to provide a nice ceiling. Among receivers who average at least four targets per game, MVS leads the NFL with a lengthy 18.9-yard aDOT. He missed last week’s game but in his previous four starts, he has seen an average of 7.8 targets/gm.

WR Ihmir Smith-Marsette: He’s the stone-cold minimum $200 on DK and should get in on some three wide receiver sets. Assuming he is active (was a healthy scratch last week, though that was when Thielen was available) Smith-Marsette is not the worst dart throw on the board tonight.

Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers, KJ Osborn: There’s no player with a higher fantasy ceiling in this game than Adams. Another 30+ DKFP performance is easily attainable here.

*Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Marquez Valdez-Scantling: This is simply a standard CPTN Rodgers double stack. Adams and MVS have the most upside but Allen Lazard is a viable stack option as well. Rodgers seems to like Lazard in the redzone.

*Dalvin Cook, Aaron Jones, Aaron Rodgers: Cook has a very realistic chance to grab 20 carries and 5+ receptions. Remember that the Vikings do still have some hope at a playoff berth so it isn’t as if they should be expected to limit Cook in this game, no matter how slim their chances are of winning.

*AJ Dillon, Packers D/ST, Justin Jefferson: Dillon has been more involved in the second half of the season and, if they get up big on the scoreboard, the Packers may choose to limit Aaron Jones’ touches in order to keep him fresh for the playoffs.

5-1 Packers “Smash” Builds: Plenty of blowout potential in this game and 5-1 Packers builds will still likely go under-owned in GPPs. 

That will wrap us up for the Sunday Night Football Preview! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck tonight!

Let us know if you enjoyed the issue with a Yes/No below!