By: Ryan Humphries

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Due to single-game format discrepancies between DraftKings and FanDuel, this article is more geared towards a DraftKings-focused GPP approach.

Los Angeles Rams (-4) @ Cincinnati Bengals | 48.5 O/U

LAR: 26.3 implied points | CIN: 22.3 implied points

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: TE Tyler Higbee (knee) - OUT, TE CJ Uzomah (knee) - Questionable/Expected to Play

Score Prediction: LAR - 30, CIN - 23

Game Preview: After an incredible season in the NFL, we have finally arrived at the precipice of Super Bowl LVI which is set to kick off on Sunday at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, California. All eyes are on a pair of quarterbacks, both former No. 1 overall picks, who find themselves preparing for the biggest game of their lives at different ends of their careers. A year ago at this time, as he was heading into his 13th season in the NFL, Matthew Stafford was still a Detroit Lion who was facing an uncertain future with a new coaching staff and a roster which was still far from ready to compete for a playoff berth, much less a Super Bowl. At that same time, Joe Burrow was recovering from a torn ACL which he suffered in the tenth game of his rookie season; the Bengals went on to end the year with a 4-11-1 record.

Matthew Stafford’s entire career trajectory changed once the Rams made a trade to acquire him. The Rams have made several marquee moves in recent years while staking their future along the way and giving up high-end draft picks, but the Stafford acquisition was by far the largest piece to the puzzle. Up to this point, their “win now” approach has been successful… but before their long series of gambles truly pays off, they need one more win.

Meanwhile, the Bengals chose to continue surrounding their franchise QB with elite weapons and used their fifth overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft to reunite Joe Burrow with his star collegiate teammate from LSU, wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase. It was a move that vaulted the Bengals offensive skill position unit into arguably the top young group in the NFL as Chase (21 y/o) joined forces with Burrow (25 y/o), Tee Higgins (23 y/o), Tyler Boyd (27 y/o), and Joe Mixon (25 y/o). Oh… and with the 149th overall pick, Cincinnati drafted Evan McPherson who is rapidly turning into the most cold-blooded kicker in the league. There were numerous other moves that have worked out for Cincinnati and after going 2-14 in 2019, the Bengals have pulled off one of the fastest successful rebuilds in NFL history. They too remain one victory away from their final goal.

While Stafford and Burrow soak up most of the spotlight, obviously neither quarterback can win Super Bowl LVI alone. The Rams are taking the field on their home turf and possess a star-studded defense that ranked third in the NFL in sacks during the regular season as well as fifth in overall DVOA. They will face off against a Bengals O-Line which is banged up on the right side and has allowed Joe Burrow to become the most-sacked QB in the league this season. To me, this is the biggest storyline of the game -- can the Bengals O-Line hold up against the Rams defensive front and consistently allow Burrow enough time to deliver the ball to one of those electric weapons? If they can manage to keep Burrow’s jersey relatively clean, I believe the Bengals could certainly come away winning the first Super Bowl in their franchise’s history. Otherwise, the Rams await on the other side of the field with an offense loaded with weapons of their own which are just as good as the Bengals, if not better, and they have the full capability of pouring on points against this good-but-not-great Cincy defense.

Whichever way this game goes, we should ultimately end up witnessing a terrific championship game to wrap up a storybook season. Enjoy the game and I wish everyone the best of luck with your DFS and betting ventures!

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Rams, 4-2 Bengals, 5-1 Rams (light sprinkle in MME).

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

WR Cooper Kupp: Even at a slate-high captain salary of $17,400 ($6,520 rem/player) on DraftKings, Kupp will likely check in with the highest captain ownership (and overall ownership) in this game… and why shouldn’t he? After earning the triple crown with 145 receptions for 1,947 yards and 16 TDs while leading the NFL with a 33.2% TGT% in the regular season, Kupp has been just as lethal in the playoffs. In the last two playoff games, Kupp has racked up performances of 40.0 DKFP and 35.3 DKFP. As if there weren’t enough reasons to eat the chalk and play Kupp in the captain/MVP slot, the Bengals defense gave up THE most FPPG to slot WRs over the final two months of the season and third-most FPPG across the entire season. Kupp aligns in the slot on 65% of his routes.

RB Joe Mixon: The chances of the Bengals winning this game WITHOUT getting a huge performance out of Mixon seem quite low. The Ram's defensive game plan will likely center around aggressively utilizing their talent advantage on their D-Line versus a shaky Bengals O-Line in an attempt to pressure and harass Joe Burrow in hopes of creating sacks and errant throws. The best way to counter that would be to feed Joe Mixon, then feed him some more. Not only would a Mixon-heavy approach take some heat off of Burrow, but it would keep a lethal Rams offense on the sideline. Now, the match-up isn’t an easy one as the Rams do rank fifth in rush DVOA and allowed the seventh-fewest FPPG to RBs this season. But Mixon could realistically handle 25+ touches in this game, including some of those touches coming in the passing game. In his last five starts, Mixon has seen 29 targets (5.8 tgt/gm) and has caught 26 (5.2 rec/gm) of those.

QB Matthew Stafford: While he does not possess a lengthy postseason resume, there is no competition when it comes to the total amount of experience that Stafford possesses over his counterpart in Joe Burrow. For that reason, he would feel like the more logical QB to target, particularly when looking to roster one at captain/MVP. In this postseason, Stafford has passed for 905 yards (301.7 YPG) on a 72% comp% with a 6:1 TD:INT ratio. He’s also added 36 yards and two more scores on the ground, which has been a nice boost to his fantasy results. The Bengals represent a plus match-up after ranking 24th in pass DVOA this season and even though he’ll be without tight end Tyler Higbee, who is a larger loss than what many may realize, Stafford will still have an excellent receiving corps at his disposal and could easily come away as the highest scoring fantasy option in Super Bowl LVI.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

WR Odell Beckham Jr.: Tyler Higbee’s 16.2% TGT% (also a 16.2% Redzone TGT%) and 5.7 tgt/gm will need to be distributed elsewhere, and OBJ is a leading candidate to benefit from some additional looks. Beckham is coming off of his biggest game as a Ram where he caught 9-of-11 targets for 113 yards against the 49ers in the NFC Championship. The chemistry and trust between Stafford and OBJ have clearly reached a well-established point and while Kupp should remain the target hog of this offense, Beckham Jr. will maintain a significant role himself. It is worth noting, the gap between Kupp’s (32) and OBJ’s (23) targets this postseason is not incredibly wide.

WR Tee Higgins: It’s reasonable to assume that rookie Ja’Marr Chase has done plenty enough damage this season to be “rewarded” with shadow coverage from Jalen Ramsey. And while it is not a foregone conclusion that Chase will draw full shadow coverage from Ramsey for all four quarters, the Rams star DB has publicly stated it would be his preferred assignment in this Super Bowl -- "It's me now, it's me, keep it real," Ramsey said. "Of course, that's what I'm asking for. That's what I want. Whoever you think their best man is, put me on him. Let me help the team win this game. That's what it's all about.” Enter Tee Higgins who is enjoying a breakout season of his own in his second year in the NFL. Higgins is coming off of 13 catches for 199 yards in the last two playoff games and will simply need to post similar production and throw in a touchdown to pop off as an optimal FLEX play (and potential leverage captain play).

Rams D/ST: The Bengals O-Line held their own against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship, allowing only a single sack. However, we cannot forget about the week prior when they gave up NINE sacks to the Tennessee Titans in the Divisional Round. The Rams defensive front is better than both of those teams and there is ample room for them to pay off this low-end salary if they’re able to create some havoc in the Bengals backfield. They’d be a preferred FLEX play, however, if they do manage to score around 15 FP or so, there is a possibility that they sneak into optimal captain territory while providing plenty of salary relief, thus allowing for several stud players to be rostered in the FLEX.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

TE Kendall Blanton: Tyler Higbee played 14 snaps before suffering an MCL sprain in the NFC Championship, an injury which will, unfortunately, sideline him in Super Bowl LVI. In his place, Blanton stepped in to play 79% of snaps and caught 5-of-5 targets for 57 yards. No other Rams tight end saw the field. The Higbee injury should lead to a 90+% snap share for Blanton on Sunday. A handful of targets with a shot at a touchdown could result in excellent value.

K Evan McPherson OR Matt Gay: McPherson will almost certainly draw more attention in showdown contests, and it’s no surprise after he has gone 12-for-12 on field goal attempts this postseason while scoring 15, 18, and 15 FP. In fact, he has only one game in his last ten starts where he failed to score at least 11 FP. He makes plenty of sense as a salary relief option but so will Matt Gay who will check in at lower ownership. The Rams are projected for nearly 27 points on offense and Gay has hit double digit fantasy points in 2-of-3 games this postseason.

RB Darrell Henderson Jr.: Henderson (knee) was activated off of the IR on Friday and should see some meaningful snaps in the Super Bowl. It’s likely that both Cam Akers and Sony Michel will out-snap Henderson, but at $1,600 on DraftKings, you really won’t need a ton of production for that salary to be paid off. He was the Rams bellcow back for much of the season, after all, and he could perhaps even be utilized as the preferred passing downs back while Akers and Michel do the dirty work between the tackles on early downs.

Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*Cooper Kupp, Matthew Stafford, Tyler Boyd: You may have to get a little creative with your CPTN Kupp builds, especially if you want to stack Stafford with him in the FLEX, but he’s proven basically every game this season that his floor/ceiling combo is unmatched.

*Joe Mixon, Evan McPherson, Odell Beckham Jr.: The Bengals will need Mixon to come through in this game with chunk yardage and plays that move the chains. His usage as a pass catcher, particularly down the stretch of the regular season and into the playoffs, adds a whole extra level of upside to his fantasy potential.

*Matthew Stafford + Two Rams Pass Catchers: The standard CPTN Stafford double stack provides significant upside and there are several viable WR/TE/RB combinations you could build with him which would make plenty of sense.

*Odell Beckham Jr., Matthew Stafford, Joe Burrow (+ Fade Cooper Kupp): Rolling with OBJ at CPTN plus stacking Stafford alongside him while fading Kupp in the off-chance that he posts a lackluster game (which, by his standards could still be something like 5-75-1) could be one of the more intriguing contrarian builds when trying to separate yourself from the massive Kupp ownership.

*Tee Higgins, Joe Burrow, Kendall Blanton: As mentioned earlier, it’s likely that Ja’Marr Chase sees considerable coverage from Jalen Ramsey. This isn’t to say Chase will be locked down all game, but it would theoretically boost Higgins’ potential target volume and fantasy upside. Higgins has posted a pair of strong performances across the last two games, he simply hasn’t found the endzone yet this postseason. It’s entirely possible for Higgins to go out there and put up a 7/120/1 type stat line in which case he would flirt with the possibility of being the optimal captain.

*Rams D/ST, Cooper Kupp, Matt Gay: If you plan on entering a fair amount of GPP lineups and want to travel down a highly contrarian path, then CPTN Rams D/ST could be the ticket. A lot will need to go right for this to be a GPP-winning strategy but we saw how poorly the Bengals O-Line held up against the Titans a few weeks ago. And the Titans don’t have Aaron Donald and Von Miller.

Super Bowl LVI Props

This is just for a little bit of added fun but below are a few SB prop bets I'm liking.

*All bets and odds via Bovada. Better odds may be found elsewhere.

Odell Beckham Jr. Anytime Touchdown Scorer + Rams to Win | +220

Kendall Blanton First Touchdown Scorer | +1400

Drew Sample First Touchdown Scorer | +3300

Cooper Kupp to Win Super Bowl MVP | +500

Team to Win Coin Toss to Defer | -500

Tee Higgins over 5.5 Receptions | -103

Odell Beckham Jr. over 65.5 Yards Receiving | -114

Joe Burrow over 12.5 Rushing Yards | -114

Each Team to Score 3+ Touchdowns | +900

That will wrap us up with the Super Bowl LVI Preview and the 2021-22 NFL season! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck and I'll see you guys next season (and around talking about other sports elsewhere on LineStar)!

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