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NFL Prop & DFS Shows w/ Tyler Wiemann

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San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-8.5) | 44.5 O/U

49ers: 18.0 Implied Points | Rams: 26.5 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: SF QB Brock Purdy - OUT, SF WR Ricky Pearsall - OUT, SF WR Jauan Jennings - OUT, SF WR Brandon Aiyuk - OUT, SF TE George Kittle - OUT/IR, LAR TE Tyler Higbee - Doubtful

Score Prediction: 49ers - 17, Rams - 27

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Rams, 3-3 Balanced, 5-1 Rams, 4-2 49ers

Players to Consider

⚠️Quick Note⚠️ With Brock Purdy out tonight, QB Mac Jones will be getting another start. On FanDuel, Jones was mistakenly left with a $1,000 base salary ($1,500 MVP salary). That is going to skew things a ton on the FD slate. Barring an early-game injury, even with all of the SF WR injuries, there are very few ways that Mac Jones *doesn’t* end up as an optimal play on FanDuel (either as MVP or as a FLEX play), and utilizing him as your MVP allows you to fit in all of the studs in the FLEX. That’s going to be a popular approach on FD tonight, so think about how you’re going to deal with that blatant misprice.

Top Captains/MVPs & Core FLEX Plays 🔐

WR Puka Nacua, LAR: Nacua is nearing historic numbers through four weeks. Thus far, he is averaging 12.5 targets/gm, 10.5 receptions/gm, and 125.8 YPG. On a 17-game pace, that would equate to 213 targets, 179 receptions, and 2,138 yards! He is simply the safest non-QB floor play in fantasy football at the moment. I’d expect some down games along the way, and perhaps we’ll see some regression hit tonight. The Rams are heavy favorites in this one, so they may not need to throw a ton, and the 49ers have also ranked 4th in WR1 DVOA. But, as it stands, Nacua and his dominant 37.6% Target% make him a clear captain/MVP candidate.

RB Christian McCaffrey, SF: As insane as Nacua’s target numbers have been, CMC’s might be even more ridiculous. He’s averaging 10.8 targets/gm with a 30.7% Target%, which is unheard of receiving involvement for a running back. The 49ers’ receiving corps is completely decimated, so the heavy dosage of targets will continue, and whatever he does on the ground might just be considered a bonus. It’s by no means an easy matchup as the Rams have allowed the fewest adjusted fantasy points to RBs this season, but a healthy CMC is about as “matchup-proof” as it gets, and he is going to have to have a big game if the 49ers hope to win this one.

WR Kendrick Bourne, SF: By default, Bourne will step in as the temporary WR1 for the 49ers tonight. Ricky Pearsall, Jauan Jennings, TE George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk are all out, as well as WR depth options like Jacob Cowing and Jordan Watkins. As a result, Bourne should be out there for nearly 100% of the snaps tonight and, in a likely trailing game script (SF +8.5), he should command a decent chunk of the target share. Bourne certainly isn’t a super-talented NFL WR, but you rarely get a “WR1” at this price point, so there is merit in rolling him out as a value captain/MVP (particularly on DraftKings) and loading up on studs in the FLEX.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain/MVP Options 🏆

QB Matthew Stafford, LAR: Stafford popped off with a ceiling game in week three (375 yards & 3 TDs), but it’s unlikely that he’ll need to throw it 40+ times again tonight. That said, he remains a strong floor play on a single-game slate. Stafford has put up solid numbers through four weeks, ranking 5th among NFL QBs in yards per completion (12.1), 5th in yards per attempt (8.2), 7th in passer rating (106.1), and he’s completed an efficient 67.6% of his passes with an 8:2 TD:INT ratio. The 49ers have allowed the 4th fewest FPPG to QBs this season, but that’s less impressive when looking at the starting QBs they’ve faced thus far -- Spencer Rattler, Trevor Lawrence, Sam Darnold, and Kyler Murray. 250+ yards and a couple of TDs seems like a pretty safe bet for Stafford this evening.

WR Davante Adams, LAR: Adams has been a distant second to Puka Nacua in the Rams receiving game, but that doesn’t mean he’s been irrelevant. The Rams’ passing game is super condensed and runs through Nacua and Adams, who combine for 63.8% of the total team’s targets. Adams has also been a go-to weapon in the redzone, having seen 10 RZ targets already with a monster 47.5% RedZone Target%. He is currently the WR15 in PPR scoring this season, and he could easily outscore Nacua tonight. As noted, the 49ers have ranked 4th in WR1 DVOA, but they are a lowly 27th in WR2 DVOA.

RB Kyren Williams, LAR: Williams opened the season with a dominant 94.8% RBRush% in week one, and that figure has progressively fallen since -- 77.3% (Wk2), 71.4% (Wk3), down to 59.1% last week. Blake Corum has been getting more opportunities, but it would also make sense that Williams’ touches were particularly limited this past Sunday due to the short week. A 70+% RBRush% is still nothing to sneeze at, and I’d expect Williams to get back closer to bellcow workload territory this evening. The 49ers have been a quality run defense (9th in rush DVOA), but Williams is a near-lock for at least 15-20 touches, and the expected game script also works heavily in his favor.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers 💤

K Joshua Karty, LAR & K Eddy Pineiro, SF: A mid-40s total typically indicates more FGs than TDs will be scored. In a domed stadium with no weather/wind concerns, both kickers will be viable value FLEX options tonight.

TE Jake Tonges, SF: Tonges found the endzone for the second time this season last week. With Kittle sidelined, he’s been playing around 70-80% of the snaps while running routes on the majority of Purdy/Mac Jones dropbacks (68.6% RouteParticipation%). This will be the most depleted level that the 49ers’ receiving corps has been yet, so Tonges should continue to have a meaningful role. It’s a middling matchup as the Rams check in at 12th in TE DVOA and have allowed the 15th most FPPG to the position.

Rams D/ST: If you’re going with a D/ST in this one, the Rams look like the obvious choice. They’re at home playing against a team with a backup QB, backup TE, and without their top three WRs. The Rams are also tied for 2nd with 14 sacks so far this season, and they’ve racked up most of those sacks on simple four-man rushes -- their 19.7% Blitz% is the 10th lowest blitz rate in the NFL. They have also forced a turnover on 16.7% of opponent drives, which is the 4th highest TO% in the league.

WR Demarcus Robinson, SF: Robinson will be the de facto WR2 for the 49ers this evening. He returned from a three-game suspension last week to play 38% of snaps while commanding a couple of targets. That’s not much to gloat about. However, WRs Jauan Jennings (73% Wk4 Snap%) and Ricky Pearsall (56% Wk4 Snap%) both started last week, so, with those guys out tonight, Robinson is likely going to be in on most/all of two WR formations and play around 80% of the snaps. Robinson played the last two seasons with the Rams, so I’m sure there will be some who will inject the “revenge narrative” into the mix here as well.

RB Blake Corum, LAR: As noted in the Kyren Williams spotlight, Corum has been eating a larger and larger slice of the pie as the season has progressed, regarding Rams backfield touches. I still believe that Williams’ touches were monitored a bit on Sunday due to the short turnaround to Thursday Night Football, but Corum will still have a chance at some meaningful touches, especially if the Rams go up big early in this game.

WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, SF: We know who MVS is at this point -- a boom-or-bust receiver who is very big-play-reliant. He’ll probably play a decent number of snaps tonight -- maybe around 40% -- and potentially see a deep target or two. But he is about as likely to put up a goose egg as he is to log even a single catch.

RB/FB Kyle Juszczyk, SF: As a fullback, Juszczyk is never going to be overly fantasy-relevant, but he does occasionally leak out of the backfield for a big receiving play and has some designed plays run for him on the goal line. He’ll almost certainly need a luckbox TD to be an optimal play, but, for what it’s worth, he owns +725 odds to score a touchdown tonight… so it’s possible!

TE Luke Farrell, SF: Farrell has logged a 53% snap% this season with a 49.3% RouteParticipation%. He brought in a touchdown from QB Mac Jones in week two and could be a redzone factor again tonight.

TE Davis Allen, LAR: Tyler Higbee (hip) is officially “doubtful” tonight, so Davis Allen should step in as the Rams’ lead TE or, at worst, split snaps with TE Colby Parkinson. Allen already has a pair of TDs this season, which he scored in weeks one and two.

WR Jordan Whittington, LAR: Whittington has quietly played 63% of the snaps this season, and was in on a season-high 80% of snaps last week. He has only seen six targets (4.5% Target%) this season, but, considering the amount of plays he’s out on the field for, he’s not a terrible dart throw to consider.

TE Colby Parkinson, LAR: Parkinson played 48% of the snaps in week one, and that was with Higbee (58% snap%) and Davis Allen (37% snap%) also eating up plenty of plays. So, with Higbee unlikely to suit up, Parkinson likely hovers around a 50% snap% tonight and should see at least a couple of targets.

WR Russell Gage Jr., SF: We’ll have to wait and see if Gage is active tonight, but if he is, he’s another dart throw to consider for an extremely shorthanded 49ers WR group. Gage hasn’t been on the field since week one, but he did play 37% of the snaps that week -- Kendrick Bourne did not play in that game, but both Pearsall and Jennings did.

Stack Concepts 🥞

[*Player Name] represents captain/MVP play.

*WR Puka Nacua, QB Matthew Stafford, TE Davis Allen: There is not much else to be said on how dominant Nacua has been, but if he maintains his historic pace tonight, he’ll have a strong chance to come away as the optimal captain/MVP. Any CPTN/MVP Nacua lineup should probably be stacked with Stafford. And, to save some salary, we’ll throw in a cheap Davis Allen with Tyler Higbee [likely] out.

*RB Christian McCaffrey, K Eddy Pineiro, RB Kyren Williams: CMC is the 49ers offense right now, and he could easily push for 30 total touches in this game. He’ll be a major focal point of the Rams’ defense, but volume is volume. Kickers do tend to correlate well with their team’s RB (someone has to move the ball to set up FG attempts), so we’ll roll Pineiro in the FLEX and run it back with Kyren Williams on the other side. We often see these TNF matchups turn into RB-heavy games, and you’re locking up a huge volume of touches by rolling CMC and Williams in the same lineup.

*WR Kendrick Bourne, QB Mac Jones, WR Puka Nacua: As discussed, Bourne is going to operate as the WR1 for the 49ers tonight. McCaffrey probably ends up seeing the most targets (for SF), but Bourne has more upside in terms of receiving yardage. Stack with QB Mac Jones and, since Bourne is such an affordable captain/MVP, we can easily go with Puka Nacua as a premier bring-back play.

*QB Matthew Stafford, WR Puka Nacua, WR Davante Adams: Standard CPTN/MVP Stafford double-stack featuring, far and away, his top two most targeted receivers. Other Rams pass catchers to mix into CPTN/MVP Stafford lineups (in order of preference): TE Davis Allen, WR Jordan Whittington, TE Colby Parkinson, RB Kyren Williams, WR Tutu Atwell.

*WR Davante Adams, QB Matthew Stafford, WR Kendrick Bourne: Adams may not have nearly the same volume upside as Nacua, but he’s been Stafford’s go-to target in the redzone (47.4% RZ Target%). It wouldn’t be a shock if Adams ends up with a couple of TDs and decent yardage tonight while Nacua has a quieter game (by his standards). We’ll stack Adams with Stafford and bring it back with the affordable WR1 Kendrick Bourne on the other side.

*RB Kyren Williams, K Joshua Karty, RB Christian McCaffrey: Same concept as the CPTN/MVP McCaffrey stack above, just flipping things around. After a quiet week four, Williams has a strong chance to eclipse 20+ touches tonight, especially if the Rams lead this game start to finish. Kicker Joshua Karty is a good, affordable correlating option with Williams, and it’s hard to go wrong with CMC as the bring-back play.

FanDuel Only

*QB Mac Jones ($1,500 MVP), RB Christian McCaffrey, WR Puka Nacua, QB Matthew Stafford, RB Kyren Williams, WR Davante Adams: This is what I was pointing out earlier with FanDuel drastically mispricing QB Mac Jones, who is, of course, starting for the injured Brock Purdy tonight. A starting QB just shouldn’t have this sort of price tag, and using Jones as a dirt-cheap MVP quite literally allows you to fit in the five most-expensive players into the FLEX spots with $100 to spare. This full lineup is going to be heavily duplicated tonight, and I’d expect it to split plenty of money in cash games (50/50s, double-ups, etc). So I’m not really endorsing it as much as I am simply pointing it out to anyone who may not realize that this lineup is possible on FanDuel.

Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!