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Buffalo Bills (-5.5) at Houston Texans | 44.5 O/U

Bills: 25.0 Implied Points | Texans: 19.5 Implied Points

Notable Skill Position Injuries: HOU QB CJ Stroud - OUT, BUF TE Dalton Kincaid - OUT, BUF WR Curtis Samuel - OUT

Score Prediction: Bills - 24, Texans - 17

Single Game Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Bills, 3-3 Balanced, 5-1 Bills, 4-2 Texans

Players to Consider

Top Captains/MVPs & Core FLEX Plays 🔐

RB James Cook III, BUF: Houston’s defense is going to provide some difficult matchups for the high-powered Bills offense, but they are at least a bit softer against the run, ranking 5th in rush DVOA versus 1st in pass DVOA. The Texans have also allowed 6.0 rec/gm for 41.8 receiving YPG to RBs over their last four, so that’s where James Cook could make up some ground if it’s a slow night running the ball. Even with Josh Allen absolutely taking over last week’s game, Cook still managed to score 20.4 DKFP, and he heads into week 12 as the RB6 in fantasy. Also, based on his -114 ATTD (anytime touchdown) odds, Cook is more likely than not to find the endzone this evening, whether it be on the ground or through the air.

WR Nico Collins, HOU: Collins hasn’t suffered at all with starting QB CJ Stroud (concussion) missing time recently, and he’s been interim QB Davis Mills’ clear go-to target. Over the last three weeks, Collins has been targeted 36 times, resulting in a 29.3% Target% and a 40.4% AirYard%. He has turned all of those looks into 23 receptions for 303 yards and a TD. The matchup isn’t great, as the Bills have allowed the 11th fewest FPPG to perimeter WRs (Collins: 82% PerimeterRoute%). But, with the likelihood of seeing 10+ targets again, especially in what is probably going to be a trailing game script, Collins will still have plenty of opportunities to pop for another big game.

RB Woody Marks, HOU: I’d say, if the Texans are hoping to pull off the upset tonight, they’re going to have to take advantage of the Bills' porous run defense. Sean Tucker just ripped Buffalo up for 140 scrimmage yards and three TDs last week, and a week before, De’Von Achane had 225 scrimmage yards and two scores. The Bills now check in at an awful 30th in rush DVOA and have allowed the 3rd-highest explosive run rate in the NFL. So that brings us to Woody Marks, who has seemingly taken over the RB1 role for Houston after out-touching Nick Chubb 35-to-9 over the last two games. Marks has flashed some playmaking ability, accounting for a 22.2% Avoided Tackle Rate and ripping off nine explosive runs on 81 attempts. He’s been at his best at home and draws arguably the best individual matchup of any skill position player in this game. It would behoove the Texans to feed Marks plenty of volume tonight in order to keep the dangerous Josh Allen off the field for as much as possible.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain/MVP Options 🏆

QB Josh Allen, BUF: Some may be surprised that Allen didn’t make the CPT/MVP section above, but it’s a testament to how tough this Texans defense is. I’d also imagine that Allen’s CPT/MVP ownership will be way above what his optimal hit rate would be. For example, I think Allen could come close to 40% CPT/MVP ownership, but only have about a 10% chance of being the optimal CPT/MVP once everything is said and done. Regardless, he’ll still make a ton of sense as a primo FLEX play. He is coming off a ridiculous one-of-a-kind performance, where he passed for three TDs and ran for three TDs. He is the QB1 in fantasy, and no other player at the position provides the sort of upside he does. That being said, it’s highly unlikely we get a ceiling game out of him tonight. The Texans are 1st in pass DVOA, they’ve allowed the fewest FPPG to QBs, and Allen tends to have his best games at home, which is not where he’s at tonight. But again, you can’t go wrong slotting him in one of the FLEX spots.

QB Davis Mills, HOU: Mills has filled in admirably for the currently concussed CJ Stroud over the last two-plus games, leading Houston to back-to-back wins. And, in fact, over the last two weeks, Mills trails only Josh Allen in QB fantasy points scored. While he is no Josh Allen, Mills has added a bit of value with his legs, rushing for 44 yards and a TD over the last two games (albeit on only four attempts). The matchup isn’t great, however, as the Bills are much better against the pass than they are against the run, and they’ve given up the 6th-fewest adjusted FPPG to QBs. But, while Mills is not likely to be a go-to CPT/MVP play, pretty much all QBs not named Geno Smith bring a high floor to the table for these single-game slates.

WR Jayden Higgins, HOU: Higgins has seen his role grow over the last month and has logged a 66% snap% over the previous four games. He has seemingly jumped ahead of Xavier Hutchinson for the WR2 role on the depth chart, and heads into tonight with at least seven targets in three of the last four games. He’s also found the endzone twice in that stretch. With Nico Collins drawing plenty of the defensive attention, Higgins sets up with a positive matchup as the Bills have ranked 22nd in WR2 DVOA. Higgins has also spent the most amount of his time running routes on the right perimeter, which is a plus as the Bills have allowed the 6th-most FPPG to right perimeter WRs.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers 💤

TE Dalton Schultz, HOU: The volume has been excellent for Schultz, who has seen 8+ targets in four of the last five games, including 20 total targets across the last two games with Davis Mills in at QB. Unfortunately, it’s just a brutal matchup. The Bills have allowed the fewest adjusted FPPG to TEs this season. However, they’re closer to the middle-of-the-pack, sitting at 12th in TE DVOA, so perhaps some regression is due. As long as Schultz continues to be a primary receiving weapon in the offense, he’ll remain on the FLEX radar.

K Matt Prater, BUF, and K Ka’imi Fairbairn, HOU: I’m liking kickers more so than usual in this primetime game. It’s a domed matchup, so no weather concerns, and it just feels like these offenses could stall out quite a bit [in field goal range], due to both defenses being solid. Both kickers also have big legs and have combined to miss only five FGs this season.

Bills D/ST and Texans D/ST: Similarly to kickers, I could see one or both defenses pop up in the optimal lineup tonight. The Bills' defense isn’t great all-around, but they could post a good score here. The Texans' defense is downright elite, but they’ll have their hands full dealing with Josh Allen.

TE Dawson Knox, BUF: With Dalton Kincaid (hamstring/out) injured, Dawson Knox will spend another week as the Bills' TE1 and should play around 80% of the snaps (77% snap% last week with Kincaid out). Trying to pinpoint which Bills pass catcher will have a serviceable game has been nearly impossible, but Knox could see a handful of targets tonight, and I like his chances of finding the endzone in this game as well (+330 ATTD odds), even though the Texans are stingy against TEs (6th fewest FPPG allowed). But they have allowed a pair of TE touchdowns within their last four games.

RB Ty Johnson, BUF: No one is threatening James Cook’s primary RB role, but Johnson has been a factor in this Bills offense, playing around 30-40% of the snaps in most recent games and scoring two TDs within the last three weeks.

WR Christian Kirk, HOU: Kirk hasn’t put up great numbers with the Texans, and he’s been in and out of the lineup due to injuries. But he will serve as the primary slot man and play around 50% of the snaps. The Bills are middle-of-the-pack versus slot WRs, and I could see the Texans making it a point to get Kirk a bit more involved.

WR Tyrell Shavers, BUF: Shavers will become a much more appealing value option if the Bills opt to make Keon Coleman a healthy scratch again, as they did in week 11. Shavers played a season-high 54% of the snaps last week and caught 4-of-5 targets for 90 yards and a TD. Even if Coleman is active, Shavers’ contributions last week may have been enough for him to earn an expanded role moving forward. It’s also worth noting that WR Curtis Samuel (50% snap% last week) is out, and WR Elijah Moore was also a healthy scratch last week, so pay attention to his status as well, as it pertains to Shavers’ potential role tonight.

TE Jackson Hawes, BUF: Hawes is pretty much a “touchdown or bust” type of play, but he’ll be on the field for around 40% of the snaps as the Bills' current TE2.

WR Jaylin Noel, HOU: Noel’s advanced route running metrics are extremely strong, but, as primarily a slot WR, he’s buried behind a now-healthy Christian Kirk and has played no more than 33% of the snaps over the last three games. He could still see a few targets tonight, so he’ll make the cut as a viable punt play.

Showdown Stack Concepts 🥞

[*Player Name] represents captain/MVP play.

*RB James Cook III, K Matt Prater, WR Nico Collins: This is a stack that mostly flows with what the Vegas line is telling us with the Bills setting up as 5.5-point road favorites. If the “default” game script comes into play, that should mean plenty of touches for Cook. RBs and kickers correlate well (someone has to move the ball and set up FGs), so we’ll pair Cook with Matt Prater. And that will leave enough salary for a stud bring-back play in Nico Collins, who should once again see plenty of targets, especially in a trailing game script.

*WR Nico Collins, QB Davis Mills, WR Tyrell Shavers: Collins is seeing 12 targets/gm and over 40% of the air yards across the last three games, and I don’t see much changing tonight. He is the Texans’ offense's one true “X-factor” and will need a big game for Houston to pull off the upset. If Collins ends up as the optimal CPT/MVP, that likely means Davis Mills ends as an optimal FLEX play, so we’ll roll with the WR/QB stack. And, to save some salary, we’ll take Tyrell Shavers as a cheap bring-back play in hopes that last week’s breakout game was enough for him to continue serving as one of the Bills' primary WRs tonight.

*RB Woody Marks, K Ka’imi Fairbairn, QB Josh Allen: We discussed how awful the Bills’ run defense has been in Marks’ player spotlight, and, now that he is clearly ahead of Nick Chubb as the Texans’ RB1, he should get plenty of work in tonight. Chubb isn’t completely going to go away, but Marks does have a chance to flirt with 20 touches if things go according to plan for Houston. Similar to the CPT/MVP Cook lineup, we’ll pair Marks with his team’s kicker. And ya can’t go wrong taking Josh Allen as the premium bring-back play.

*QB Josh Allen, WR Khalil Shakir, TE Dawson Knox: Standard CPT/MVP Allen double-stack featuring two Bills pass catchers that we can… kind of trust. There is no surefire Bills receiver to lock into CPT/MVP Allen lineups, so feel free to mix and match different guys. Other Bills pass catchers to mix into CPT/MVP Allen lineups (in order of preference): WR Tyrell Shavers, WR Keon Coleman (if active), RB James Cook III, WR Joshua Palmer, RB Ty Johnson, TE Jackson Hawes.

*QB Davis Mills, WR Nico Collins, WR Jayden Higgins: Standard CPT/MVP Mills double-stack. Unlike Josh Allen, I’d say Nico Collins is a pretty clear “lock” into any CPT/MVP Mills lineups. If he ends up as the optimal CPT/MVP, then he likely brings at least two Texans pass catchers along with him, and Higgins is a good option to roll with, alongside Collins, thanks to his recent emergence as Houston’s apparent WR2. Other Texans pass catchers to mix into CPT/MVP Mills' lineups (in order of preference): TE Dalton Schultz, WR Christian Kirk, WR Xavier Hutchinson, WR Jaylin Noel, RB Woody Marks, RB Dare Ogunbowale.

*WR Jayden Higgins, QB Davis Mills, QB Josh Allen: Given his upgraded role to WR2, Higgins looks to be a bit underpriced, especially on DraftKings at $4,600. With 7+ targets in three of the last four games, and the likelihood of the Texans trailing for most/all of this game, he makes for an appealing value CPT/MVP target. We’ll, of course, want to stack him with Mills, and we’ll also have plenty of room to take the highest floor play in the game, Josh Allen.

Once again, if you have any questions, DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!