By: Ryan Humphries

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Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Los Angeles Chargers | 52.5 O/U

KC: 27.8 implied points | LAC: 24.8 implied points

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: RB Austin Ekeler (Questionable - Expected to Play), WR Josh Gordon (C19)

Score Prediction: KC - 31, LAC - 27

Game Notes: Week 15 kicks off tonight with a juicy divisional match-up. Not only are bragging rights up for grabs in this AFC West showdown, but a shot at the potential top seed in the AFC could be at stake as well. The Chargers (8-5) got the best of the Chiefs (9-4) way back in week 3 via a 30-24 victory; however, the Chiefs ride into SoFi Stadium on the heels of a six-game win streak in which they have won by an average of 16.3 points. The Chiefs have been winning these games with a complete team effort and they have not been overly reliant on the arm of Patrick Mahomes who has fewer than two TD passes in four of those six victories. The Chargers have been hitting a nice stride as well having won three of their last four and scoring at least 37 points in all three of those wins. Justin Herbert is tearing it up over the last month, averaging 319.3 YPG alongside a 70.9% completion rate. Overall, the Chiefs will check in as the healthier team here (via ProFootballDoc.com SIC Score) and momentum is also a helluva thing in the NFL. Given their performance over the last six games, I predict Kansas City earns their seventh dub in a row… but only by a single score. All signs do point towards this game carrying strong shootout potential so we should be in for a fun one!

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 KC, 4-2 LAC

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

QB Justin Herbert: Since week nine, the second-year QB has notched at least 275 yards and multiple touchdowns passes in six of seven games while leading the NFL in total fantasy points and passing yards. He faces a Chiefs defense that has certainly impressed as of late but they will also be missing several impact players tonight: Chris Jones, L’Jarius Sneed, and Willie Gay. The Chargers offense has the fifth-highest pass rate in the NFL (63.4% pass play%) and should either be caught up in a close, high-scoring game or find themselves playing from behind, in which case Herbert would likely push 40+ pass attempts.

TE Travis Kelce: Back-to-back games with only three catches for 27 yards should keep Kelce’s CPTN ownership in check, but this is a strong spot for the big tight end to get back on track. Despite allowing only 4.9 receptions/gm to opposing TEs, the Chargers have allowed the second most TDs (10) to the position along with the sixth-most FPPG. Kelce is obviously a great bet to catch more than five passes tonight and he went for 7/104/0 (20.4 DKFP) against LAC back in week three on 11 targets. I envision a very similar stat line this evening except with a touchdown or two thrown into the mix.

WR Mike Williams: Bit of a gamble here with target hog Keenan Allen ($9,400) back from the reserve/COVID list, but Williams is $2k cheaper and did go OFF on this Chiefs defense in week three to the tune of 7/122/2 (36.2 DKFP). Williams is also due for some positive regression in the redzone, where he has caught only 35.7% of his targets this season. When Herbert and Williams are on the same page, Williams has a monstrous fantasy ceiling and his CPTN ownership likely checks in around 10% or lower so there is some solid leverage to be had with him (at CPTN) in GPPs.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire: He’s splitting work with Darrel Williams but since returning from a knee injury in week 11, CEH is averaging an impressive 0.548 FP/snap. The Chargers rank dead last in run DVOA and CEH is the more likely candidate to see more action if the Chiefs play with a lead. He needed only 17 carries to notch 100 yards rushing against the Chargers in week three and if he can manage around 15 touches tonight, he’s another solid bet to make his way into the endzone.

WR Jalen Guyton: Fewer snaps will be available for him now that Keenan Allen is back in the mix, but Guyton the deep threat in this offense (12.1-yard aDOT) so it isn’t as if he needs massive volume to pay dividends. Justin Herbert’s deep throws are actual passes, not heaves, and he’s burning defenses even when they roll out double-high safeties. He’s simply making throws that perhaps only a couple other QBs in the league are capable of pulling off, so rolling out his primary deep threat within lineups seems like a worthwhile risk.

RB Darrel Williams: At $3,200, Williams certainly stands out as one of the few underpriced value options in this game. While Williams is no longer in line to handle RB1 duties, he has actually held the slightest of snap advantages over Edwards-Helaire since his week 11 return (85-to-84). Williams seems to be the preferred pass-catching RB and has seen at least three targets in nine straight games. It’s reasonable to assume that Williams could edge out CEH in snaps if the Chargers happen to jump out to a lead (a very realistic possibility) and it won’t take much for him to return value at this salary.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

K Harrison Butker: Both kickers are potential FLEX plays in this game but if I’m deciding on one, it’s likely going to be Butker. The Chiefs placekicker has attempted multiple FGs in seven consecutive games and has notched at least 12 FP in three of the last four. With the Chiefs offense rolling and the ideal kicking conditions in play with this domed match-up, Butker is a solid investment at a flat $4,000 price tag.

WR Demarcus Robinson: Time to grab a quarter and drop it in the “Which Chiefs Receiver Not Named Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce Does Something Relevant This Week?” slot machine (that name is a work in progress). I’ll give Robinson a shot at being that guy tonight. Robinson has a decent 45% snap% on the season but that has dipped to 21% over the last four weeks. His reduced snaps could at least be partially blamed on Josh Gordon (20% snap% L4Wks); however, Gordon may not suit up tonight due to COVID-related issues. Also, Robinson is a likely candidate to be covered by Chargers CB Michael Davis on the majority of his routes. This season, opposing QBs are targeting their receivers on 23% of routes run against Davis.

RB Justin Jackson: Austin Ekeler is expected to suit up despite dealing with an ankle injury -- and there is a real possibility that Ekeler’s snaps and workload are not affected at all by that ankle. If the Chargers look to play it a bit more cautiously with Ekeler or perhaps he reaggravates the injury, Jackson would be one of two candidates to take on additional snaps at RB (the other being Joshua Kelley). Jackson has averaged a strong 5.3 YPC in limited opportunities this season (Kelly: 3.5 YPC) along with 0.297 FP/Snap (Kelly: 0.133 FP/Snap) and is the better pass catcher as well. It’s a low-floor/high-risk play, but Justin Jackson may have an avenue towards meaningful touches in this game. 

Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*Justin Herbert + Two Chargers Pass Catchers: Straightforward Herbert double-stack. He’s been supporting multiple receivers basically all year. You don’t necessarily have to force in Allen + Williams in a Herbert double-stack, though that would obviously be the safest route.

*Travis Kelce, Patrick Mahomes, Clyde Edwards-Helaire: This would be a decent-looking “Chiefs onslaught” stack with the potential to gain exposure to 100% of Kansas City touchdowns.

*Mike Williams, Justin Herbert, Harrison Butker: After a mid-season slump, Williams is playing better as of late and provides a major ceiling in what is fairly likely to be a very high-scoring, pass-happy game environment.

*Tyreek Hill, Patrick Mahomes, Demarcus Robinson: Even though he wasn’t highlighted above, Tyreek can never be taken out of CPTN consideration in single-game DFS formats. Sure, his numbers are down lately, but there has been a pretty obvious correlation with Mahomes’ numbers being down as well. If we get a more traditional Mahomes game (300-ish yards, 2-4 TDs) then Tyreek should post a monster performance of his own.

*Darrel Williams, Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes: At a CPTN salary of only $4,800, going with Williams up top will open up almost any combination of players in the FLEX. This CPTN Williams stack paired with both QBs still leaves an average of $7,466 remaining salary per player. As mentioned above, Darrel Williams is still playing some very meaningful snaps with CEH back and he’s one of the more obviously underpriced players on the board.

That will wrap us up for the Thursday Night Football Preview! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week! Be on the lookout for the newsletter covering the main slate tomorrow!

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