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Washington Commanders at Green Bay Packers (-3.5) | 48.5 O/U

Commanders: 22.5 Implied Points | Packers: 26.0 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: GB WR Christian Watson - OUT, GB RB MarShawn Lloyd - OUT

Score Prediction: Commanders - 23, Packers - 28

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Commanders, 4-2 Packers

Players to Consider

Top Captains/MVPs & Core FLEX Plays

QB Jayden Daniels: The Commanders are underdogs in this one, but Jayden Daniels is arguably the most important fantasy asset in the game. His upside as a rusher (52.4 YPG in 2024, 68 rush yards in week one) gives him ample DFS upside, on top of whatever he does as a passer. It will be a tough defense to go up against. The Packers, anchored by Micah Parsons, applied 11 QB pressures in week one, which was the 5th most, despite blitzing at just a 9.3% rate (2nd lowest). But, if anything, that may force Daniels into making more plays with his legs. But Daniels can, and will, make some big plays in the passing game, especially if Washington is forced to abandon the traditional run game early. Daniels’ 12.3 yards/completion was 6th among week one QBs.

 RB Josh Jacobs: Despite finding the endzone in week one, Jacobs ended with a fairly ho-hum day as he put up just 66 yards on 19 carries (3.5 YPC) while tacking on a four-yard reception. But the volume and 88% snap% are the two encouraging things to take away there. Jacobs has a clear pathway to the bulk of the RB touches, and he faces a promising matchup versus a Commanders defense that has allowed 68% more FPPG to RBs when playing on the road (L9Games).

 WR Deebo Samuel Jr.: Deebo had a “do-it-all” type of debut with his new Commanders team last week, corraling 7-of-10 targets (33.3% Target%) for 77 yards while adding a 19-yard touchdown run as well as 50 kick return yards. Those kick return yards don’t matter much for fantasy purposes (unless he houses one of those returns), but you can’t help but love the double-digit targets right out of the gates as well as the designed run out of the backfield. Samuel has also excelled against zone coverage throughout his career, as he thrives off of catching the ball in space and picking up big YAC yardage, and the Packers ran a 90% zone coverage in week one.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain/MVP Options

QB Jordan Love: The Packers were in command of their week one matchup with the Lions pretty much start to finish, so Love wasn’t needed to air it out much. He only attempted 22 passes, but he was efficient, averaging 11.8 yards/completion (8th among Wk1 QBs) with two TDs against zero picks. Love’s receiving corps is a little raw, but plenty talented, and I’d expect him to be a fairly reliable fantasy QB throughout this season, even if the game script does not often lend itself to a pass-heavy approach. Barring a major shootout, Love’s ceiling is rather limited, which stifles his captain/MVP appeal, but he remains a strong floor play this evening.

 RB Jacory “Bill” Croskey-Merritt: Croskey-Merritt became a popular sleeper target in season-long and best ball drafts ahead of this season… though the hype eventually bumped his ADP into “non-sleeper” territory. While he only handled 10 carries on a 33% snap% in week one, he proved his believers right by racking up 82 yards and scoring a touchdown. He’s not going to average 8.2 YPC every game, and Austin Ekeler will remain the primary pass-catching RB. But Ekeler is limited as a between-the-tackles runner at this stage of his career, and JCM should receive more opportunities as the season progresses. If he is locked in as the Commanders’ goal-line back, he brings plenty of touchdown equity to the table. It is a tougher matchup, but the chance at multiple TDs keeps him firmly on the FLEX/leverage captain/MVP radar.

 TE Tucker Kraft: Kraft led all Packers receivers with a 92% snap% in week one, alongside a route participation rate just under 80%. There are plenty of potential mouths to feed in this Packers passing attack, and Kraft only saw four week one targets. But, again, Jordan Love only threw it 22 times, and one of Kraft’s targets came in the redzone for a TD. Kraft also saw a 12.8-yard aDOT, which is pretty deep down the field by tight end standards. In what should be a more competitive game, look for Kraft to take on more significant target volume while operating as a primary redzone threat once again.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

RB Austin Ekeler: Ekeler makes more sense on DraftKings, where his pass-catching skills transfer better in DK’s full PPR scoring system. Ekeler will mix in some rush attempts, but his role as a receiver is his main appeal (on DK). It was based extremely on the game script that the Lions were forced into, but the Packers did allow a whopping 14 receptions to RBs last week.

TE Zach Ertz: His 64% snap% from week one may not jump off the page, but Ertz ran a route on over 80% of the Commanders’ week one pass plays while catching a redzone TD. Ertz quietly finished as the TE7 in fantasy points last season, and he will continue to be one of Jayden Daniels’ most reliable pass catchers. The Packers also gave up 79 yards to TEs last week, so this may be a spot of their defense that can be exploited.

K Brandon McManus and K Matt Gay: No weather/wind issues in Green Bay tonight. Both kickers set up as worthy FLEX plays.

Packers D/ST: This Packers D looks legit, and they’re certainly the clear choice of the two D/STs if you’re taking a shot on one this evening.

WR Romeo Doubs: Doubs looks very underpriced on both sites today and would even make sense as a contrarian captain option, if you’re looking to stuff your lineup(s) with studs in the FLEX. He has never been an overly consistent fantasy producer, but he has a rapport with Love, and he led all Packers WRs, by a wide margin, in week one in snap% (71%) and AirYard% (36.4%). The next-closest WRs in those two categories were rookie Matthew Golden (48% snap%) and Jayden Reed (27.7% AirYard%). Doubs led the team in routes and was targeted deep down the field with a 23.0-yard aDOT.

WR Dontayvion Wicks: Wicks isn’t a heavily featured receiver in this offense, but until Golden establishes himself in a more defined role, and while Christian Watson remains out, he’s going to have a relevant role. Wicks (46% snap%) played just one fewer snap than Golden in week one, and he was targeted on 22% of his routes. I doubt the volume will be significant, but Wicks is well within “punt for value and hope for a big play/TD” territory.

WR Noah Brown: Brown was in on 47% of the snaps last week and had a 57% route participation rate. In a game that could have Washington playing from behind, Brown figures to see some decent opportunities tonight while the defense focuses more on Deebo Samuel Jr. and Terry McLaurin.

WR Jaylin Lane: Lane is the 4th WR on the depth chart, but he did play a respectable 30% of snaps last week. He was the Commanders’ fourth-round selection in this year’s draft, which is strong enough draft capital to assume that Washington views him as a real contributor in this offense. Lane was 4th among WRs at the 2025 NFL combine with a 4.34 second 40-yard dash, and he put up plenty of other elite times in the agility drills, so you know that he’s going to get some opportunities to make big plays happen.

RB Chris Brooks: Josh Jacobs has a stranglehold on the backfield touches here, but Brooks did log a 19% snap% last week and has shown some ability as a quality pass-catching RB. If this game turns into a back-and-forth shootout, which is possible, we may see Brooks in on some passing downs.

Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!