By: Ryan Humphries

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NFL Week 13 Primetime Preview

We fly into the final third leg of the season with week 13 in our sights! Due to personal time constraints, this particular Primetime Preview will cover only this evening’s Thursday Night Football game between the Cowboys and Saints. A second week 13 Primetime Preview edition will be sent out on Saturday where we will go over previews, plays, and strategies for the SNF & MNF match-ups! Alright…. let’s go ahead and get a look at last week’s perfect primetime game DFS lineups and then dig into this Cowboys/Saints match-up!

Due to how the rosters are constructed for single-game NFL slates, this article is more geared towards a DraftKings-specific GPP approach.

Perfect Lineups from Week 12 Primetime Games

Dallas Cowboys (-6) at New Orleans Saints | 46 O/U

DAL: 26.0 implied points | NO: 20.0 implied points

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: RB Alvin Kamara (knee) - OUT, Amari Cooper (C19) - Questionable (Seems likely to suit up at this time but may have a limited snap count), WR Cedrick Wilson (ankle) - OUT, TE Adam Trautman (knee) - Out/IR, TE Blake Jarwin (hip/C19) - Status unclear at this time

Score Prediction: DAL - 28, NO - 19

Game Notes: Thursday Night Football will feature an NFC battle between two Thanksgiving Day losers who will be hungry for a win. The Saints enter on a major skid, losing each of their last four contests. Meanwhile, Dallas has dropped three games in their last four but still remain firmly ahead in the NFC East -- although their two-game divisional lead ahead of the surging Washington Football Team will feel very shaky if they’re unable to pull off the victory on the road tonight.

The Saints have been bit by the injury bug to some key players. Most notably, they will be without superstar RB Alvin Kamara for the fourth consecutive game. New Orleans will also be shaking things up at QB with Taysom Hill set to get the starting nod ahead of Trevor Siemian. Their six points that they scored against the Bills on Thanksgiving was the lowest offensive point total in the Sean Payton era. It’s likely that Taysom Hill would have seen action sooner had he not been dealing with a lingering foot injury. He should be all systems go tonight.

On the other side, Dallas has been battling against COVID issues and tonight they will be without head coach Mike McCarthy, OL coach Joe Philbin, assistant OL coach Jeff Blasko, and RT Terence Steele. DC Dan Quinn will step in as the acting Cowboys head coach for this game. The Cowboys offense will benefit from the (presumed) return of WR Amari Cooper, but it was reported that Cooper was still dealing with some COVID symptoms when he returned to practice yesterday, so he may not see a full compliment of snaps if he does play. Meanwhile, we’ll see how effective the Dallas run game can be as they look to go up against a Saints defense that still remains the top ranked unit in run DVOA.

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 DAL, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 NO, 5-1 DAL (light exposure)

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

QB Dak Prescott: The sledding could be easier for Dallas through the air as opposed to on the ground (NO: ranks 1st in run DVOA). The Saints have been lit up by opposing QBs in recent weeks, allowing an average of 28.2 FPPG to the position in their last five games. And while he may not be 100%, having Amari Cooper back to pair with CeeDee Lamb will only boost Dak’s chances of posting a ceiling game in this spot.

WR CeeDee Lamb: Top Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore has been given a shadow assignment in five games this season but did not shadow Stefon Diggs last week (per Mike Clay, ESPN) so we may not see him stick to Lamb or Cooper exclusively. Lamb is utilized all over the field anyway, which makes shadowing him a difficult venture, to begin with. Given Cooper’s fairly high chances of seeing a limited number of snaps, Lamb may draw upwards of 10+ targets in this game.

QB Taysom Hill: He drew four starts in place of Drew Brees last season and completed 71.9% of his passes, though for only 208.5 YPG and a 4:2 TD:INT ratio. Hill’s big value is via his rushing ability. In those same four spot starts, he ran 39 times for 209 yards and four rushing scores. Assuming that foot injury that has held him out of games in recent weeks doesn’t affect him, he should remain in the captain conversation tonight.

RB Ezekiel Elliot: The upside is certainly questionable for Zeke tonight as he has not cracked double-digit carries in back-to-back games and has scored over 13 DKFP in only two of the last four. As mentioned, this is also a difficult match-up against a hard-nosed Saints run defense. He still remains involved in the passing game and his average of 18.0 touches/gm combined with his TD upside will keep him in the running as a captain candidate.

RB Mark Ingram III: Missed last week’s game with a knee injury but is set to be the Saints lead back tonight. When filling in for Kamara as the #1 back in weeks 10 and 11, Ingram combined for 30 carries, 10 receptions (15 targets), 221 yards, and a touchdown -- good for 37.1 DKFP. QB Taysom Hill may vulture a redzone TD or two, but at a base salary of $5,000 and CPTN salary of $7,500, Ingram is simply too cheap on this showdown slate.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

WR Michael Gallup: With Cooper’s snap count in question and backup WR Cedrick Wilson out this evening, Gallup should be expected to see a fair amount of targets for the third consecutive week. My guess is somewhere around 7-9 targets with one or two deep shots.

RB Tony Pollard: Averaging over 13 touches/gm across the last three games. Zeke has been dealing with knee stiffness since week four so Pollard will maintain a notable role. As we saw on his 100-yard Thanksgiving Day kickoff return, Pollard has major big play ability and can take any touch he sees to the house.

TE Dalton Schultz: He has posted a solid 71.2% catch% this season on a 15.9% TGT%. Schultz has been a reliable option for Dak Prescott on short to intermediate routes and is never a bad bet to find the endzone. The Saints can be stingy against tight ends and I don’t love Schultz’s $7,600 salary, but that should keep his ownership in check.

WR Tre’Quan Smith: It’s tough to project what any Saints receiver will do tonight. None can really be trusted very much, but if I was going to pick on Saints WR to go heavy on, I’d lean towards Smith. He has led Saints WRs with an 85% snap% over the last four games and has averaged 6.0 tgt/gm in that span.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

WR Noah Brown: Should see a fair amount of snaps tonight with no Cedrick Wilson (and, once again, Amari Cooper may not be fully involved). He caught 6-of-9 targets from Dak last week for 53 yards while playing 93% of snaps. At a salary of only $600, he’s far from the worst dart throw on the board.

K Greg Zuerlein: This feels like a game where the Cowboy drives could stall multiple times deep in Saints territory. Not a bad night to project Zuerlein for double-digit fantasy points.

TE Nick Vannett: Only played 37% of snaps last week in the first game without Adam Trautman but did catch his lone target for a touchdown. Considering Vannett has been out with injury for most of the season, we can likely expect his snap count to creep up. He was the only Saints tight end who drew a target last week.

Cowboys D/ST: No Kamara, this is Taysom Hill’s first in-game action since week 10, and the Saints are only being pinned with a 20 point implied total. Aside from their 23 FP performance against Atlanta in week 10, we haven’t seen the Cowboys D/ST post a double digit FP score since week 6… perhaps that changes in New Orleans.

WR Amari Cooper: I normally won’t feature a player this expensive in this section but given the uncertainty surrounding Cooper’s involvement in the game plan tonight, his ownership will likely be quite low so there is leverage to be had here. I thought about fading him entirely, but this could also be one of those situations where all reports say he’ll be limited but Cooper ends up playing his normal complement of snaps and goes for 100+ yards and a TD. He could just as easily have two catches for 20 yards but if you’re comfortable with some risk, Cooper is a worthy “flier” on this showdown slate.

Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*Dak Prescott + Two Dallas Receivers: Barring a wire to wire blowout, Dak has a great chance at 300+ yards passing tonight. You can pick your poison between Lamb, Gallup, Schultz, Cooper, and Noah Brown when it comes to running double stacks with Dak.

*CeeDee Lamb, Taysom Hill, Tre’Quan Smith: Lamb could also be the only Cowboys receiver who “goes off” tonight and he may be my favorite overall captain candidate in this game. Run CPTN Lamb back with a Hill + Saints receiver stack.

*Mark Ingram III, Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb: Going with CPTN Ingram leaves $42,500 in salary left over ($8,500 per rem. player). You could easily fit three high-end players in the remaining roster slots -- or even four if you take one dart throw on a guy like Noah Brown. Ingram has some 20+ DKFP upside in this game as well, so it isn’t as if we’re “punting” by slotting him in at CPTN.

*Ezekiel Elliot, Taysom Hill + Two Saints Receivers: The low CPTN ownership on Zeke tonight is intriguing for GPPs. If you pair him with Hill and a couple of Saints receivers, you’ll be looking at a fairly unique lineup build. Nailing the correct Saints receivers will of course be the tricky part.

5-1 Dallas Cowboys “Smash” Builds (lean towards including Cowboys D/ST): You’ll notice above that only four total Saints players were highlighted (Hill, Ingram, Smith, Vannett). Outside of Hill and Ingram, there isn’t much confidence to be had in many other Saints players tonight. Anything can happen in the NFL but if there’s a blowout in this game, I really don’t see the Saints being on the favorable side of it. So, a 5-1 Cowboys “smash” build could certainly come away as the optimal approach. I would lean towards including the Cowboys D/ST in most or all 5-1 DAL lineups.

That will wrap us up for the Thursday Night Football Preview! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week! Be on the lookout for the newsletter covering the main slate tomorrow!

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