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Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-12.5) | 49.5 O/U

Dolphins: 18.5 Implied Points | Bills: 31.0 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA - Questionable, TE Darren Waller, MIA - OUT, K Jason Sanders, MIA - OUT/IR, K Tyler Bass, BUF - OUT/IR

Favorite Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Bills, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Dolphins, 5-1 Bills

Players to Consider

Top Captains/MVPs & Core FLEX Plays

QB Josh Allen, BUF: Pretty clear captain/MVP candidate here. Allen’s stratospheric ceiling is unmatched by anyone else in this game. Game script and some inefficient passing (56.0% comp%) kept his statistical and fantasy output down last week, and with the Bills being huge 12.5-point favorites, it’s certainly possible that he may not need to be the same “do it all” guy we saw in week one in the shootout versus the Ravens. But if the Dolphins can keep things semi-competitive, the ceiling opens up for Allen. The Dolphins currently check in at 31st in pass DVOA and are allowing the 7th-highest yards per completion (11.5). Miami has also already given up three rushing TDs to QBs through two games.

RB De’Von Achane, MIA: Achane has played 92% of snaps this season, which is 1st among all NFL RBs. His 14 targets are also second among RBS, behind only Christian McCaffrey (17), and he’s seen a 23.7% Target%, which is a significant target share for an RB. At 5’9”, 190 lbs, Achane is usually the smallest guy on the field. He has still averaged a respectable 4.7 YPC on the ground. Achane is never going to be a consistent 20+ carry guy, but his pass-catching prowess should continue to pay dividends as the Dolphins find themselves as heavy road underdogs tonight, and they should be in a pass-happy mode while presumably playing from behind. This Bills defense is 27th in rush DVOA and is also prone to giving up explosive plays, which is how Achane can potentially end the night as the optimal captain/MVP play.

RB James Cook, BUF: Cook is the RB1 in fantasy scoring through two weeks. The three TDs help, but Cook is also averaging 118.5 scrimmage YPG and has had 11 redzone opportunities (carries + targets). The implied game script also works heavily in Cook’s favor this evening. In a blowout win last week, despite playing only 54% of the snaps, Cook still received 22 touches. Miami has allowed 139.0 rush YPG and 27.0 DKFP/24.2 FDFP to RBs this season.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain/MVP Options

WR Tyreek Hill, MIA: Jaylen Waddle (shoulder/questionable) is banged up heading into this game, so if he sits out, Hill should command a huge target share. He has only seen a 20.6% Target% thus far, which is good, but not “alpha WR” good. He did have a bit of a vintage performance last week, hauling in 6-of-7 targets for 109 yards (18.2 YPR). Hill easily leads the team with a 45.4% AirYard% and 16.2-yard aDOT, so he’s still clearly the big play target in this offense. If Waddle is active, Hill still makes for a strong play, but the ceiling does take a hit.

QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA: The Bills have faced the fewest pass attempts (41) in the NFL, but one would assume that Miami will be passing plenty tonight. Tua had an awful week one, but was efficient last week, completing 26/32 passes (81.2%) for 315 yards and a pair of TDs. Buffalo is mid-pack in pass DVOA (15th). While there is little to no rushing upside for Tagovailoa, he is likely going to be a solid floor play, especially if Miami fails to get much production going on the ground.

 WR Keon Coleman, BUF: There is no true standout receiver in this Bills offense, at least not yet. Keon Coleman, who was the 33rd overall pick in the 2024 draft, could be poised for the patented “year two wide receiver breakout,” and he currently leads the team with a 20% Target% through two games. The Dolphins have been more vulnerable against perimeter WRs, and Coleman has run 91% of his routes on the outside. The Dolphins have also allowed the 7th most FPOE (fantasy points over expected) to WRs thus far and have a couple of injuries in the secondary (CB Storm Duck and S Ifeatu Melifonwu are both out tonight). It will help Coleman’s case if Miami keeps things fairly close on the scoreboard, forcing Josh Allen and the Bills into staying active through the air, but Coleman can also deliver in the big play department, so he doesn’t necessarily need huge volume to pay off.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

Bills D/ST: The D/STs for Miami’s first two opponents (IND and NE) have averaged 13.0 FPPG, so the chance at scoring double-digit fantasy points for the Bills D/ST is fairly high. The Bills have been fairly aggressive, blitzing 34.0% of the time (6th highest), and they have applied QB pressure on 22.6% of dropbacks (8th highest). If the Bills jump out to a big lead and force the Dolphins into a pass-happy game script, that should also benefit their defense as it opens the door for more sacks/strip sacks and picks/pick sixes.

TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF: Kincaid and Dawson Knox have split the TE snaps fairly evenly thus far, but Kincaid is the more skilled pass catcher and can line up out wide as well. He’s going to generally be third or fourth in the pecking order for targets, but Kincaid did bring in a redzone touchdown in week one and draws a positive matchup versus a Dolphins team that is 28th in TE DVOA and has allowed 71.5 YPG (6th most) to TEs this season.

K Matt Prater, BUF & K Riley Patterson, MIA: In a high total game (49.5 O/U), there should be plenty of FG opportunities to go around. The top kickers for both teams (Tyler Bass and Jason Sanders) are currently on IR, but the backup options have done what was asked of them. Prater is 6/6 on FGs, 5/5 on PATs, with a long FG of 52 yards. Patterson filled in for Sanders last week and went 2/2 on FGs and 3/3 on PATs. No wind/weather issues are expected in Buffalo this evening.

WR Joshua Palmer, BUF: Palmer is second on the team with 12 targets, just two fewer than Keon Coleman, and he leads the Bills with a 29.2% AirYard% and 13.5-yard aDOT. He’ll draw better matchups on the perimeter (74% PerimeterRoute%) and, as noted in Coleman’s spotlight, this Dolphins secondary is a little banged up. Palmer’s soft DFS price tags make him a very appealing value option in this game.

WR Malik Washington, MIA: Washington’s floor and ceiling rise significantly if Jaylen Waddle (shoulder/questionable) is ruled out. But, assuming Waddle suits up, Washington still makes sense from a DFS standpoint as a cheap FLEX play. He is the Dolphins’ gadget guy who lines up out wide, handles some touches out of the backfield, and returns kicks. He has logged a 66% snap% up to this point and, with a lack of any real weapon at tight end, Washington should be, at worst, fourth in the pecking order for targets tonight, behind Tyreek, Achane, and Waddle.

RB Ray Davis, BUF: Davis has some blowout/garbage time upside in a game that the Bills are heavily favored. In a blowout last week, Davis played 31% of the snaps and handled nine carries. If he gets close to double-digit touches again, all it would take is a luckbox TD to put Davis in the conversation as an optimal FLEX play.

WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, MIA: NWI is the WR4, but he becomes a very intriguing punt play if Waddle is out. In that case, Westbrook-Ikhine would likely end up playing around 60% of the snaps.

Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!