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New York Jets vs New England Patriots (-13) | 43.5 O/U

Jets: 15.5 Implied Points | Patriots: 28.0 Implied Points

Notable Skill Position Injuries: NE: RB - Rhamondre Stevenson, WR - Kayshon Boutte, TE - Austin Hooper.

Score Prediction: Jets - 13, Patriots - 31

Single Game Roster Construction (in order of preference): 5-1 Patriots 4-2 Patriots, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Jets(Super contrarian build)

Players to Consider

Top Captains/MVPs & Core FLEX Plays 🔐

QB Drake Maye, NE: Since Drake’s first start vs this very New York Jets back on week 8 of last year, he has taken full strides as the starting quarterback and hasn’t looked back. This season alone, Drake is averaging 21.5 FFPG, including 1.9 passing touchdowns per game while averaging 255.5 yards thrown through the air. While playing the Jets, who just had a fire sale of their defense at the deadline, held Dylan Gabriel to only 167 yards in the air, but did give up 2 passing touchdowns and 54 rushing yards. Now, this is not the Cleveland Browns; this is a very well-coached team with a much superior offensive line, and I personally believe with Drake Maye today that not only will he get it done in the air, but also with his rushing upside, as this defense has struggled against mobile QBs.

WR Stefon Diggs: For starters Diggs has great history vs the Jets, however his targets this season have been an up and down trend. But without Boutte, Diggs should continue to receive the targets going into tonight. After the trade of Sauce, the secondary is already depleted. Diggs has a great opportunity to break the slate tonight as WR1. Over the past two weeks, Jamar Chase has eclipsed 20FPTS, and last week, Jerry Jeudy remembered how to catch the ball, putting up 19FPTS against this pass defense. I am seeing Diggs for 100+ yards and 1 TD, potentially 2 TDs, given how Vrabs has been handling this offense.

RB TreVyon Henderson, NE: To start this one off…It’s about time! Waited 10 weeks for his blowup game. I still think TreVyon is a great play tonight, as we saw what he can do with consistent opportunities. As a massive college football fan I have seen the Henderson show for years while he was at Ohio State, yes he was a bit injury prone but when he was on the field he was electric in the open field. However, if and when the Patriots do reach the goal line, I am concerned that either Jennings or Maye will vulture his TD upside within 1-5 yards of the goal line. Nonetheless, I think we can see another great night from Henderson.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain/MVP Options 🏆

DEF/ST New England: Yes, you are reading this correctly. I am more than happy to play the Patriots Defense as a Captain and in the Flex. Both teams are on a short week so neither had a bye going into tonights’s game. The Jets give up on average 3.8 sacks a game, not to mention Justin Fields is still their starting QB. The Patriots, on the other hand, have a defense that averages 2.1 sacks per game, while also averaging 0.7 interceptions per game and 0.4 Fumbles per game. I am not sold on last weeks performance of three touchdowns being scored again by the Jets tonight.  

WR Mack Hollins, NE: Without Boutte, Mack stepped right into the offense without any hesitation with 9 targets 6 receptions for 106 yards last week against Tampa Bay. In the last 5 weeks, Hollins has accounted for a total of 23 targets. With Stevenson out and Vrabs still not fully committing to the run like he did with Henry in Tenn, I believe the pass catchers are in great spots tonight.

 RB Breece Hall, NYJ: With this steep price tag of $10,200. Breece is averaging 15.60 FPPG this season; however, he is going up against this daunting rush defense from New England. Hall is averaging 82. yards on the ground, and with a depleted WR room, he is absolutely in play as a pass catcher tonight. I believe if this offense wasn’t to move the ball down the field, Breece will be the focal point for them.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers 💤

WR Kyle Williams, NE: As long as Boutte is out, the rookie Kyle Williams is absolutely in play. With his ability to create separation like he did in college, he is in play as a salary saver at $2000. Not to mention, he was on the field for 34 snaps at 56% of the total snaps. With a higher snap percentage, I expect to receive more targets tonight.

TE Hunter Henry, NE: The Jets have consistently been giving up 10.45 FFPG to the TE slot, as we all know Drake Maye and this offense doesn’t have one single consistent pass catcher. Yes, Hunter is only averaging 2.5 targets over the last 6 games; however, with them giving up the yards to the TE, I believe Hunter is in a great bounce-back spot tonight if you are not comfortable playing Mack, as Hunter is $400 cheaper.

K Andy Borregales, NE, and K Nick Folk, NYJ: To me on Showdown slates Kickers are always in play. I believe tonight that is the case as well, especially on the Jets side of the ball. If the Jets can not move the ball into the red zone, Nick Folk is still in play to get a few, as he is averaging just over 9 FFPG, and Borregales is averaging 7.5 FFPG over the last four. Plus, we all know how these TNF games go.

TE Mason Taylor, NYJ: Hoping for a bounce back as his trend with targets has shown. If there is one bright side to this Jets offense tonight, it's that the Patriots, along with the Jets, have given up the FPTS to the TE. If he were to have a bounce back, today would be the day, as Garrett Wilson is on the IR and there are no definitive pass catchers for this Jets offense. Overall, I can see Taylor being the one to get into the end zone.

WR Tyler Johnson, NYJ: The Jets are without Wilson, Johnson was on the field for 63% of the snaps last week, I am expecting the same this week. At this price tag, it is low enough to build a stars and scrubs line. Over his last four games, the targets are indeed low; however, in two games where he had more than one target, he accumulated over 60 yards in both.

WR Demario Douglas, NE: Demario is in a great spot tonight, along with the other NE pass catchers. His target trend, like Hunter's, is showing tonight as a bounce-back night, as last week only saw two targets, while the rest went to Diggs and Hollins. Demario’s numbers vs the Jets aren’t too exciting to make you want to lock this play in; however, I do believe at this high of a price tag, he will be one of the lower-owned WRs for NE.

Stack Concepts 🥞

[*Player Name] represents captain/MVP play.

*QB Drake Maye, WR Stefon Diggs, WR Mack Hollins: Standard CPT/MVP Maye double-stack featuring his two most targeted receivers over the past couple weeks. Other NE pass catchers to mix into CPT/MVP Maye lineups (in order of preference): TE Hunter Henry, WR Demario Douglas, RB Kyle Williams, RB TreVyon Henderson,

*TE Mason Taylor, QB Justin Fields, RB Stefon Diggs: This is a way to be different, as the majority of the field will be locking in any NE player as they should. Given the way the Patriots tend to give up FPTS to the TE, I don’t mind throwing in Mason Taylor as the CPT to be contrarian to the field, with the main piece being Diggs, who also brings back Drake Maye in the same build.

*WR Kyle Williams, QB Drake Maye, RB Breece Hall: If you are looking to build a “bully” or “stars and scrubs line”. You can start with Kyle Williams and play everyone, and actually be comfortable playing it. Kyle Williams again was on the field for 56% of the snaps last week, and his separation abilities can for sure help him out tonight.

*RB TreVyon Henderson, K Nick Folk, RB Breece Hall: TNF games have been surprisingly high-scoring this season, but, historically, on a short week, teams have often elected to lean on a ground-heavy approach in these games. If that’s the case tonight, stacking both primary RBs together in the same lineup would be a logical approach. If both Henderson and Hall are able to get there and we do end up having a low-scoring affair tonight, that means both kickers are in play as well, which would give the leverage against the field.

*RB TreVyon Henderson, NE D/ST, TE Mason Taylor: This stack should work well if the “default” game script plays out. That would entail New England holding a strong lead for most/all of this game, which in turn would feed both Hall and Taylor to be more involved in the offense. The New England D/ST also correlates well with CPT/MVP Henderson and serves as a salary-saving FLEX option as well.

*New England D/ST, QB Drake Maye, RB TreVyon Henderson (+ Fade WR Mack Hollins):  Now this is more of your 5-1 builds. If you think that Fields and company wont be able to move the ball and or have multiple turnovers, this a great way to be a tad different by implementing the New England Defense/ Special Teams. This Jets offense doesn’t look good at all, not to mention not having their number one pass catcher, Wilson. To me, this is a get-right game for this New England defense to bounce back and put up double-digit FPTS.

Once again, if you have any questions, DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!