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Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-9.5) | 42.5 O/U

Raiders: 16.5 Implied Points | Broncos: 26.0 Implied Points

Notable Skill Position Injuries: DEN WR Marvin Mims Jr. - OUT, DEN TE Nate Adkins - OUT

Score Prediction: Raiders - 17, Broncos - 27

Single Game Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Broncos, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Raiders, 5-1 Broncos

Players to Consider

Top Captains/MVPs & Core FLEX Plays 🔐

QB Bo Nix, DEN: Since week four, Bo Nix has been the QB2 in FPPG (23.7), trailing only Patrick Mahomes in that stretch. He hasn’t been utilizing his rushing ability quite as much this season, compared to his rookie campaign, but he is still averaging 23.0 rush YPG with three rushing TDs, through nine games, after scoring four rush TDs last season. Nix has also been at his best at home, where he is averaging 257.0 pass YPG and 26.1 FPPG, versus 189.6 pass YPG and 17.1 FPPG on the road. The Raiders’ pass defense is very middle-of-the-pack (15th in pass DVOA) and has allowed +25% more FPPG to QBs when playing on the road.

TE Brock Bowers, LV: After a slow start to the season, followed by three missed games due to a knee injury, Bowers had his inevitable breakout game in week nine. The star second-year tight end erupted for 12 receptions on 13 targets (34.2% Target%) for 127 yards and three TDs. Bowers also ate up 45.5% of the team’s total air yards last week, which is an unheard-of figure for a tight end. With WR Jakobi Meyers’ (20.8% Target%) departure to the Jaguars ahead of the trade deadline, Bowers is left with an even larger slice of the target share pie. Barring a miracle of some kind, Bowers isn’t going to replicate the same sort of success that he had last week. But he is a good bet for 10+ targets, especially in a likely Raiders (+9.5 underdogs) trailing game script. And, while the Broncos’ defense has been stingy across the board, they have been giving up a fair amount of production to TEs lately.

WR Courtland Sutton, DEN: Sutton only has one 100+ yard game this season, but he’s still putting together a solid campaign, currently ranked as the WR23 in FPPG scoring. Sutton also benefits from Bo Nix’s improved passing numbers at home, and he’s averaging 74.0 receiving YPG and +37% more FPPG at home this season. But what really jumps out to me is the alignment matchup for Sutton this evening. Sutton has run nearly half of his routes on the left perimeter. The Raiders, meanwhile, have allowed THE most FPPG to left perimeter WRs. The Raiders are also allowing the 5th-most adjusted FPPG to WRs this season, regardless of alignment. So, it’s not a bad spot for Sutton to pop for a ceiling game, possibly going for 100+ yards and a TD against a porous Raiders secondary.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain/MVP Options 🏆

RB Ashton Jeanty, LV: No qualified running back has been stuffed at or before the line of scrimmage at a higher clip than Jeanty (30.6% Stuffed%). But, while the Raiders’ O-Line has not been doing him many favors, Jeanty has flashed the same sort of elusive playmaking ability that he displayed in his collegiate days. Jeanty is currently 11th in the NFL in Avoided Tackle Rate (28.2%) and 10th in yards after contact per attempts (2.8). He’s also getting a bit more involved as a receiver, with 4+ targets in three of the last four games, and that may continue with the Raiders trading away WR Jakobi Meyers. Jeanty also played a season-high 91% snap% last week. The matchup is rough, as the Broncos check in at 3rd in rush DVOA and have allowed the 4th-fewest adjusted FPPG to RBs. However, the Broncos have ranked a subpar 22nd in Stuffed Run Rate at 18.8%, so perhaps Jeanty can find some room to work with tonight. Even in a likely poor game script, Jeanty is a good bet to handle 15-20 touches, and his +130 ATTD (anytime touchdown) odds are the second-best of any player in this game (behind only JK Dobbins -114 ATTD odds).

RB JK Dobbins, DEN: Dobbins has had some poor touchdown luck over the last month, with zero trips into the endzone in the last four games, while rookie RB RJ Harvey has found paydirt five times over the last three weeks. Dobbins’ volume has still been solid with 15.5 touches/gm L4Games, while Harvey has been at just 6.6 touches/gm in that same span. Dobbins also has twice as many redzone opportunities as Harvey has had this season. So, to me, this seems like a positive regression spot for Dobbins and, as noted above, he does have the best ATTD odds in this game. Harvey’s involvement isn’t going to magically go away, but I’d be surprised if the touchdown favoritism continues to be so heavily skewed away from Dobbins’ favor. It also wouldn’t be a shock if both Denver RBs have a nice stat line, considering that the Raiders have allowed the 5th-most FPPG to RBs over their last four games, as well as +35% more FPPG allowed to RBs when playing on the road.

WR Troy Franklin, DEN: While Courtland Sutton is the bigger name, it’s been second-year WR Troy Franklin (and Bo Nix’s college teammate) who has led the Broncos in Target% (21.3%) this season. Franklin has been particularly involved over the last three games, in which he has averaged 9.3 Targets/gm with a team-leading 25.9% Target% and 42.6% AirYard%. Franklin has run just over half of his routes out of the slot, which is where he could find some quality success tonight as the Raiders have allowed the 5th-most FPPG to slot WRs over their last four contests.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers 💤

RB RJ Harvey, DEN: As discussed in the Dobbins spotlight above, I don’t expect the touchdown luck to continue to be so skewed in Harvey’s favor, especially since he has played only around 25-30% of the snaps most weeks. But the Broncos have clearly found an effective role for the dynamic rookie, and the Raiders have been bleeding FP to RBs lately.

Broncos D/ST: If there is one D/ST to roll with in this game, the Broncos are the clear choice. They’ve had a better real-life defense, more so than a high-scoring fantasy defense. And they’re also without their best defensive player, with CB Pat Surtain II set to miss a second consecutive game due to a pectoral injury. Still, they’re currently the D/ST8 in FPPG and rank 4th in total DVOA. With the Broncos being at home as heavy favorites and Geno Smith leading the NFL in interceptions, it’s a good spot for double-digit fantasy points out of this D/ST.

K Will Lutz, DEN, and K Daniel Carlson, LV: I don’t have overly high hopes for either kicker in this game, but a 42.5 over/under does hint at more FGs than TDs being scored tonight, so both kickers will remain on the radar as viable value options. No wind/weather concerns in Denver this evening, and there is the built-in advantage of the thin Denver air, allowing for further distance on kicks.

TE Evan Engram, DEN: Engram posted a goose egg on three targets last week, but he did bring in at least four receptions over the previous five games prior to week nine. The Raiders have defended TEs surprisingly well this season, but Engram should still see a handful of targets against the zone-heavy Las Vegas defense.

WR Pat Bryant, DEN: Bryant has played at least 51% of the snaps in five straight games and, with Marvin Mims Jr. out for a second straight week, the solid snap share should continue. Bryant runs mostly out of the slot (58% SlotRoute%) whenever Troy Franklin isn’t manning that alignment. And, as mentioned, the Raiders have allowed the 5th-most FPPG to slot WRs over their last four games.

TE Michael Mayer, LV: I believe Mayer could be the biggest beneficiary of the Jakobi Meyers departure. Even with Brock Bowers returning from a three-game hiatus last week, Mayer was out there for 83% of snaps. He’s another big, athletic guy who can operate as a big-bodied WR in certain formations and, if the Raiders have to lean pass-heavy, Mayer may end up being one of the best values in this game.

WR Jack Bech, LV: The Raiders do have veteran Tyler Lockett on the team now, but I’d imagine that rookie Jack Bech sees the biggest bump to his snap rate with Meyers out of the picture. Bech has seen limited opportunities in the form of targets this season, but he may very well be out there for 50+% of the snaps tonight.

WR Dont’e Thornton Jr., LV: Another Raiders WR dart throw. Thornton played a season-high 86% of the snaps in week seven when Jakobi Meyers was out, but he failed to catch any of his three targets, and Brock Bowers was also out of the picture that week. Thornton is a deep threat, however, and leads the team with an 18.5-yard aDOT on the season. So he really just needs to connect on one or two big plays to pay off.

Stack Concepts 🥞

[*Player Name] represents captain/MVP play.

*QB Bo Nix, WR Courtland Sutton, WR Troy Franklin: Standard CPT/MVP Nix double-stack featuring his two most targeted receivers. Other DEN pass catchers to mix into CPT/MVP Nix lineups (in order of preference): TE Evan Engram, WR Pat Bryant, RB RJ Harvey, RB JK Dobbins, TE Adam Trautman.

*TE Brock Bowers, QB Geno Smith, RB JK Dobbins: For anyone who forgot, week nine served as a stark reminder of what Brock Bowers is capable of. I’d expect him to see double-digit targets again tonight in a likely trailing game script. While I didn’t spotlight QB Geno Smith in this newsletter, if Bowers ends up as the optimal captain/MVP, there’s a good chance that Smith ends up as an optimal FLEX play, so we’ll keep the correlation present by stacking the TE/QB duo together. From a game script perspective, rolling with Dobbins as a bring-back play makes plenty of sense as well, and I like him to get into the endzone tonight.

*WR Courtland Sutton, QB Bo Nix, TE Michael Mayer: I hate saying someone is “due” for anything, but Sutton does feel due for a ceiling game and, as outlined in his player spotlight, this is the right matchup for it to happen. Stack with Nix and, to offset the pricey WR/QB duo, we’ll roll with a cheap Michael Mayer as the bring-back play. We’re expecting plenty of two-TE sets out of the Raiders tonight, so Mayer has plenty of potential to pay off his low-end DFS prices.

*RB Ashton Jeanty, K Daniel Carlson, RB JK Dobbins: TNF games have been surprisingly high-scoring this season, but, historically, on a short week, teams have often elected to lean on a ground-heavy approach in these games. If that’s the case tonight, stacking both primary RBs together in the same lineup would be a logical approach. If Jeanty can both find the endzone and find a bit more running room than his O-Line typically allows, he’ll have plenty of optimal CPT/MVP potential. Kickers tend to correlate fairly well with their team’s RB (someone has to move the ball to set up FGs), so we’ll roll with Carlson as a cheap FLEX option and take Dobbins on the other side.

*RB JK Dobbins, Denver D/ST, TE Brock Bowers: This stack should work well if the “default” game script plays out. That would entail Denver holding a strong lead for most/all of this game, which in turn would feed Dobbins more touches, meanwhile the Raiders play from behind and target their top receiving weapon, Brock Bowers, constantly. The Denver D/ST also correlates well with CPT/MVP Dobbins, and serves as a salary-saving FLEX option as well.

*WR Troy Franklin, QB Bo Nix, TE Brock Bowers (+ Fade WR Courtland Sutton): As discussed, Franklin has seen both the targets and overall air yards skew heavily in his favor the last few games. If that continues, he’ll have ample CPT/MVP upside in this game versus a beatable Raiders secondary. Stack with Nix and, since Franklin’s salaries are more forgiving even with the 1.5x multiplier, we can afford to roll with Bowers as the high-end bring-back play. Also, if Franklin does end up as the optimal CPT/MVP, that likely means Sutton doesn’t have a big game and fails to crack the optimal as a FLEX play, so we’ll fade him in any CPT/MVP Franklin lineups.

Once again, if you have any questions, DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!