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Seattle Seahawks (-1.5) at Arizona Cardinals | 43.5 O/U

Seahawks: 22.5 Implied Points | Cardinals: 21.0 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: ARI RB James Conner - OUT/IR, SEA RB Zach Charbonnet - Questionable, ARI WR Zay Jones - OUT

Score Prediction: Seahawks - 27, Cardinals - 20

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Seahawks, 4-2 Cardinals, 3-3 Balanced

Players to Consider

Top Captains/MVPs & Core FLEX Plays 🔐

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA: Despite lower volume in week three, where he only saw six targets, JSN continues to lead all NFL WRs with a 40.3% Target% and 60.0% AirYard%. And, let’s not pretend that he put up a dud last week, as JSN still caught five balls for 96 yards and a touchdown on a day where QB Sam Darnold only attempted 18 passes (due to a blowout) with 14 completions. Smith-Njigba is the overall WR5 in fantasy scoring up to this point and will be a clear captain/MVP candidate against the Cardinals, who have allowed 90.3 YPG (4th-most) to opposing WR1s this season.

TE Trey McBride, ARI: McBride leads all NFL TEs with a 27.3% Target% and has been on the field for 92% of snaps while tying for the team lead with WR Marvin Harrison Jr. in routes run (91) and RouteParticipation% (94.8%). He commanded a whopping 29 targets in the two games against Seattle last season, which equated to a 40.3% Target%. Tight ends against the Seahawks have seen the second-most targets (29), the most receptions (24), tied for the most TDs (3), and have scored the most FPPG (20.7 DKFP/16.7 FDFP).

RB Trey Benson, ARI: The Cards were dealt a tough blow last week with fan favorite RB James Conner going down for the season with a foot injury. That will result in Trey Benson taking over as the lead back. Benson, who was drafted in the third round of the 2024 draft, played 20-of-27 snaps (74.1%) after Conner left last week’s game, with Emari Demercardo in on the other seven plays. By all indications, Benson will serve as the primary early down and goal line back while Demercardo comes in as a change of pace RB, mostly on passing downs. Benson could also see some decent usage as a pass catcher, as he has been targeted 10 times in the last two weeks. The Seahawks have been strong versus the run thus far (3rd in rush DVOA), but they have allowed the second-most receptions (22) to RBs and the 10th most FPPG to the position. Benson isn’t too expensive and brings 20-touch upside to the table. If the Cardinals keep things close, or perhaps lead, for most/all of this game, Benson’s usage and upside will only increase.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain/MVP Options 🏆

QB Kyler Murray, ARI: We know Kyler Murray is capable of a big fantasy score, but we haven’t seen it just yet this season. He is averaging only 180.7 pass YPG, but he has run for at least 32 yards in all three games, which gives him a nice floor. Seattle opponents have averaged 37.0 pass attempts/gm (6th most), so perhaps there will be move volume through the air for Murray this evening, as he has averaged 29.7 pass attempts/gm through three weeks. I won’t have many captain/MVP shares of Murray, but he will be a primary FLEX target, especially in lineups that feature McBride or another Cardinals pass catcher in the captain/MVP slot.

RB Kenneth Walker III, SEA: The Seahawks' backfield is a bit of a headache heading into this game. Zach Charbonnet (foot) is questionable but expected to play. That certainly dings Walker’s volume and upside. However, Walker should be expected to be the leading back in a 60/40-ish split. He is also 9th in the NFL in broken tackle rate and has averaged 4.2 YPC to Charbonnet’s 2.1 YPC up to this point. Arizona has held opposing RBs to just 66.3 rush YPG, but they’ve also faced only 53 RB rush attempts (8th fewest). RBs have been active pass catchers against Arizona, averaging 6.7 receptions/gm and 50.7 YPG through the air. Also, if Charbonnet isn’t 100%, perhaps the split ends up being closer to 70/30 in Walker’s favor.

QB Sam Darnold, SEA: The Seahawks haven’t asked Darnold to air it out a ton thus far (24.7 pass att/gm), largely due to a pair of blowout win scripts in weeks two and three. But Darnold has been impressive, despite the low passing volume. He is 3rd among all NFL QBs in yards per completion (12.8) and seventh in completion rate (70.3%). Meanwhile, the Cardinals have been a pass funnel, and their opponents have put up an NFL-high 70.7% PassPlay%. So we could see Darnold attempt a season-high in passes tonight. But, much like QB Kyler Murray, I’ll be more inclined to keep Darnold as a primary FLEX play, as opposed to captain/MVP.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers 💤

WR Tory Horton, SEA: Horton will be a boom-or-bust option tonight as he is still the third receiving option behind JSN and Cooper Kupp, and has only an 11.1% Target%. But he is playing around half of the snaps and has proven to be a big-play option. Two of Horton’s five receptions have gone for touchdowns, and he returned a punt for a 95-yard TD last week as well.

RB Zach Charbonnet, SEA: As noted in the Kenneth Walker III write-up, Charbonnet is expected to play tonight despite his “questionable” designation. It would make sense for the Seahawks to lean on Walker, but it’s also not as if Charbonnet was out for some extended timeframe after missing only one week with the foot injury. It’s also possible that Charbonnet may be viewed as the primary goal-line back, so he may not necessarily need significant volume if he punches in one or two short-yardage TDs.

K Jason Myers, SEA & K Chad Ryland, ARI: Once again, both kickers look like solid, albeit non-exciting, FLEX salary-saving options. No weather/wind concerns in this domed matchup. Myers has shown a big leg, connecting on multiple 50+ yarders thus far, and is the fourth-highest scoring kicker in fantasy points. Ryland has missed a pair of FGAs but has hit from 50 yards and is the 14th-highest scoring kicker in FP, for what it’s worth. A game total in the lower-40s often sees more FGs than TDs scored as well.

Seahawks D/ST: The Seahawks D/ST has a pair of TDs already this season, and, on the defensive side, they should be getting a couple of key players back from injury. Despite blitzing at the fourth-lowest rate (14.6%), the Seahawks have accounted for the fourth-highest QB Pressure% (29.3%), so this pass rush has been very effective.

RB Emari Demercardo, ARI: Benson will be the primary back moving forward, post James Conner injury, but Demercardo will see his fair share of snaps and opportunities as well. I don’t believe he’ll see significant carries, but he can make plays as a pass catcher and, as mentioned, the Seahawks have allowed the second-most receptions to RBs this season.

WR Michael Wilson, ARI: Wilson has only seen a 9.0% Target% so far, but he is the WR2 on this team and has played 70% of the snaps. Seattle has also allowed 57.3 YPG (8th most) to WR2s this season.

WR Greg Dortch, ARI: With WR Zay Jones out with a concussion, Dortch should move into the WR3 role. Jones has played right around 50% of the snaps thus far, while Dortch has been on the field sparingly with a 19% snap%. Dortch is no stranger to random spike weeks, when given an expanded opportunity, and there is some established rapport from previous seasons between him and QB Kyler Murray. At 5’7”, Dortch will likely see most of his routes come out of the slot, which isn’t a bad thing, as the Seahawks have allowed the most FPPG to slot WRs this season.

TE AJ Barner, SEA: Barner is the de facto TE1 for Seattle and, while that hasn’t meant much for fantasy purposes, the simple fact that he is on the field running routes on most of Darnold’s dropbacks gives him some appeal in single-game DFS formats. Barner has played an 85% snap% and is 3rd on the team, behind only JSN and Kupp, with a 76.3% RouteParticipation%. Arizona has allowed 60.0 YPG and 7.0 receptions/gm to TEs this season, so perhaps Barner will have some decent involvement.

WR Jake Bobo, SEA: Bobo hasn’t seen a target yet this season, but he missed week one with a concussion, returned week two to play 15% of the snaps, and then ticked up to a 33% snap% last week. A third of the snaps is a non-insignificant portion, and, at 6’4”, we’ve seen the Seahawks utilize Bobo as a big-bodied redzone weapon in the past.

TE Elijah Arroyo, SEA: Arroyo is the TE2 for Seattle, but, despite playing around half of the snaps (45% snap%) as Barner (85% snap%), he has seen just one fewer target. Arroyo is also fourth on the team with a 45.0% RouteParticipation%. The Seahawks used a second-round pick (50th overall) on Arroyo in this year’s draft, so he will likely overtake AJ Barner at some point. Arroyo’s snap rates have steadily increased this season from 31% (Wk1), to 40% (Wk2), to 49% (Wk3). As far as total punts go, he’s not a bad one to consider.

Stack Concepts 🥞

[*Player Name] represents captain/MVP play.

*WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, QB Sam Darnold, WR Greg Dortch: Three games into the season may not leave us with a major sample size, but JSN is clearly the undisputed WR1 in this offense. We’ll want to pair CPTN/MVP JSN with his QB Darnold in the FLEX and, due to JSN’s slate-high salary, we’ll save some money with a cheap bring-back option with Greg Dortch, who looks like he could be the primary slot man for Arizona tonight with Zay Jones sidelined (SEA: most FPPG allowed to slot WRs).

*TE Trey McBride, QB Kyler Murray, RB Kenneth Walker III: It’s an expensive trio here, but a very sensible stack if you believe the Cardinals will trail for most/all of this game. That would lead to perhaps double-digit targets for McBride (the NFL’s TE target% leader) while KW3 churns out yards on the other side for the Seahawks to bleed the clock.

*RB Trey Benson, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, QB Sam Darnold: The spread is only 1.5 points here, in favor of Seattle, so Arizona potentially leading for most/all of this game isn’t unthinkable either. That would perhaps push Benson into 20+ touch territory, and he has churned out an efficient 6.0 YPC so far this season while seeing ten targets over the last two games. Benson isn’t a terribly expensive captain/MVP, so we can afford to pair him with a high-floor duo of JSN and Sam Darnold in the FLEX, which still leaves room for one more stud (e.g., McBride, Walker, Murray, Harrison) in the lineup.

*QB Kyler Murray, TE Trey McBride, WR Marvin Harrison Jr.: Standard CPTN/MVP Murray double-stack, which features his two primary pass catchers. McBride would be a near auto-lock in any CPTN/MVP Murray lineups, but I think it’s viable to mix and match with the second Cardinals pass catcher. Other ARI pass catchers to mix in with CPTN/MVP Murray lineups (in order of preference): WR Michael Wilson, WR Greg Dortch, RB Trey Benson, RB Emari Demercardo, TE Tip Reiman.

*RB Kenneth Walker III, Seahawks D/ST, K Jason Myers: This stack leaves a lot open for FLEX spending, and it would have the highest chance of working out if this ends up being a lower-scoring “field goal fest,” as Thursday Night Football games can often turn into. Also, if Zach Charbonnet (questionable, but expected to play) isn’t at 100%, Walker could push for 20 touches. RBs have decent correlation with their team’s D/ST and kicker, so we’ll pair those two plays in this CPTN/MVP Walker stack.

*QB Sam Darnold, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, TE Elijah Arroyo: Standard CPTN/MVP Darnold double-stack. Darnold doesn’t have nearly as much rushing upside as his QB counterpart, Kyler Murray, so any CPTN/MVP Darnold lineup needs to be paired with at least two SEA pass catchers. JSN should be locked into any CPTN/MVP Darnold lineups, but you can be flexible elsewhere. I have Arroyo in just because he is dirt cheap, and his snaps have been steadily increasing with each passing week. But, other SEA pass catchers to mix into CPTN/MVP Darnold lineups (in order of preference) are: WR Cooper Kupp, WR Tory Horton, TE AJ Barner, RB Kenneth Walker III, RB Zach Charbonnet, and WR Jake Bobo.

Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!