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Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) at Cincinnati Bengals | 43.5 O/U

Steelers: 24.5 Implied Points | Bengals: 19.0 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: PIT WR Calvin Austin III - OUT, CIN TE Mike Gesicki - OUT/IR, CIN TE Tanner Hudson - OUT

Score Prediction: Steelers - 23, Bengals - 20

TNF Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Bengals, 4-2 Steelers

Players to Consider

Top Captains/MVPs & Core FLEX Plays 🔐

WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN: There is only so much we can glean from a one-game sample size, but Cincinnati’s recent acquisition of QB Joe Flacco seems to be a positive for Ja’Marr Chase’s fantasy value and, at the very least, it doesn’t hurt it. Chase’s 12 targets in week six represented a 30% Target%, and he also commanded 47.9% of the team’s air yards. Chase turned those 12 targets into 10 receptions for 94 yards and a TD. The Bengals are far and away the worst rushing offense in the NFL, averaging just 56.7 rush YPG. The Steelers’ defense has also been a bit of a pass funnel, with opponents averaging 37.8 pass attempts/gm. So, the volume should remain high for Chase, and even though it’s a short week, Flacco having a bit more time to learn the Bengals’ playbook is a plus. The Steelers have also struggled against WR1s this season, ranking 22nd in WR1 DVOA. They are also allowing the 9th-most YPG to WR1s (76.9) and the 10th-most adjusted FPPG to WRs overall.

WR DK Metcalf, PIT: We discussed in last week’s main slate newsletter that the Calvin Austin III (shoulder/out) injury absence could be a significant under-the-radar boost to DK Metcalf. Prior to week six, Austin had led the team with a 48.2% AirYard% while Metcalf was at a solid, but more pedestrian 27.4% AirYard%, along with a low 6.4-yard aDOT, which are both on the lower end for a team’s WR1. In week six, Metcalf ended up seeing a season-high nine targets (31.0% Target%) and ate up a monster 67.7% AirYard% with a season-high 16.8-yard aDOT. Metcalf’s 151 total airyards were 3rd among all week six NFL receivers, trailing only Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Drake London. With Calvin Austin III out again this week, Metcalf will have another shot at a ceiling performance. He will also be looking to score a touchdown in a fifth consecutive game. The Bengals have also allowed the 5th-most FPPG to perimeter WRs (Metcalf: 85% PerimeterRoute%).

RB Jaylen Warren, PIT: The Steelers do deploy a committee backfield with Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell both handling significant touches. Gainwell had a huge game in week four while Warren sat out with injury, but following the week five bye, Warren returned last week to lead the backfield in snap% (53%) and touches (13). Either guy could have a quality performance on Thursday night, considering that the Bengals have allowed the most FPPG to RBs this season and rank 30th in rush DVOA. But Warren is the better bet to rack up the most touches, as well as handle the most redzone work, and he has also accounted for 38.3 receiving YPG.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain/MVP Options 🏆

WR Tee Higgins, CIN: While Higgins saw four fewer targets from Joe Flacco in his first start as a Bengal last week (8 targets = 20.0% Target%), he wasn’t very far behind in airyards, totaling 106 airyards (44.5% AirYard%) to Chase’s 114 (47.9% AirYard%). Higgins was the primary downfield option, averaging a team-high 13.3-yard aDOT in week six. If that trend continues, that will leave Higgins with a lower floor (downfield looks are more likely to be off-target) but a strong ceiling (deep targets = big play potential). If you do the math, Higgins and Chase combined to account for a whopping 92.4% of the Bengals’ total airyards last week, so Joe Flacco certainly understands the assignment to get this elite WR duo heavily involved in the passing attack. Assuming the Bengals (+5.5 underdogs) find themselves in a trailing game script again, we can expect much of the same in week seven.

QB Aaron Rodgers, PIT: Rodgers has gone under 13 FP in three of five games this season, but just about any QB is going to be a quality FLEX play in single-game DFS formats. This will also be Rodgers’ best matchup since week one against the Jets (30th in pass DVOA), when he scored a season-high 25.7 FP. The Bengals check in at 28th in pass DVOA and have allowed the 4th-most adjusted FPPG to QBs this season.

QB Joe Flacco, CIN: While it came in a losing effort, Flacco had a solid Bengals debut against a tough Green Bay defense last week, completing 29/40 passes for 219 yards, two TDs, and zero INTs. Nothing flashy, but certainly solid. He wasn’t great in his starts with the Browns this season, but the Browns do not have a Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins. This also isn’t a bad matchup as the Steelers have allowed the 6th-most adjusted FPPG to QBs, including 25.4 FPPG to QBs in their two road games this season, for what it’s worth. QBs are averaging 41.8 pass attempts/gm against Pittsburgh in their last four games, so Flacco may very well be chucking it 40+ times again on Thursday night.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers 💤

RB Kenneth Gainwell, PIT: Barring injury, Gainwell likely won’t out-touch Jaylen Warren, especially now that Warren is another week removed from a knee injury that held him out of the week four game before the Steelers’ bye. But Gainwell will still be expected to play around 30-40% of the snaps, and he’s proven to be a factor in the passing game, with at least five targets in three of the last four games. As previously noted in Warren’s write-up, the Bengals are allowing the most FPPG to RBs this season, so there is room for both primary PIT RBs to have a productive game.

Steelers D/ST: The Steelers D/ST has scored double-digit fantasy points in three straight games, while the Bengals have allowed an average of 13.0 FPPG to opposing D/STs in their last four games. With no real run game to speak of for Cincy, Joe Flacco is going to be dropping back and throwing it a ton. More dropbacks equal more chances at sacks, picks, and defensive touchdowns.

K Chris Boswell, PIT, and K Evan McPherson, CIN: Once again, both kickers will make for sensible, albeit non-exciting, affordable FLEX plays. Boswell will be the preferred option as he ranks as the No. 9 kicker in FPPG (10.0) while McPherson has only averaged 5.5 FPPG, and he has yet to have more than one FG attempt in a game this season (not exactly his fault, but it’s worth mentioning). No wind/weather issues are expected in Cincinnati on Thursday night.

RB Samaje Perine, CIN: Chase Brown has been woefully ineffective this season, which has led to Samaje Perine seeing an uptick in snaps the last couple of weeks. Brown’s struggles have not been fully his fault -- he is dead last among 44 qualified NFL rushers in yards before contact per attempt (1.2), so the blocking just has not been there. But Brown has also only averaged 1.5 yards after contact per attempt, which is 38th among qualified rushers. Perine has only run the ball 15 times this season, but he is at least averaging a decent 4.5 YPC. He is more effective as a receiver out of the backfield, and he has been on the field for nearly 50% of the snaps in each of the last two games, playing only nine fewer snaps than Brown in that span. The Steelers have also allowed 5.8 receptions/gm to RBs L4Games, so Perine could end up being a notable factor on some Joe Flacco dump-offs.

TE Jonnu Smith, PIT: Smith hasn’t put up more than 6.7 FP since week one, but he is 3rd on the team with a 64.4% RouteParticipation%, and he could see more usage with WR Calvin Austin III out again this week. With Austin out last week, Smith got a bump up to a 73.3% RouteParticipation%. The Bengals are also terrible against opposing TEs, ranking 27th in TE DVOA and allowing the most FPPG to the position.

TE Noah Fant, CIN: Five different tight ends have seen the field this season for the Bengals, but they will be down multiple guys at the position on Thursday night with Mike Gesicki (pectoral) hitting the IR and Tanner Hudson (concussion) ruled out. Fant should see the biggest uptick in snaps and usage among the remaining Bengals TEs. He has already been the primary receiving TE for them this season -- despite playing just 36% of the total snaps, Fant’s 107 receiving yards are more than Mike Gesicki, Drew Sample, Tanner Hudson, and Cam Grandy's combined receiving yards (101). The Steelers are also allowing the 2nd-most YPG (71.8) to TEs this season. Joe Flacco also targeted a tight end ten times last week, with Hudson seeing five targets, Fant four targets, and Sample one target. So, with less competition and more snaps, Fant may be a good candidate to see 6-8 targets in this game.

WR Andrei Iosivas, CIN: Iosivas is well behind Chase and Higgins in the WR pecking order, but he has run a route on 80.1% of dropbacks this season and played a 94% snap% last week. He should see a few targets head his way, and it never hurts that Chase and Higgins are always going to demand the most defensive attention.

TE Darnell Washington, PIT: Washington is another interesting TE play for the Steelers. He has led the Steelers TEs in snap% in each of the last two games -- 91% in week four, 80% in week five -- and he has caught 6-of-8 targets for 82 yards in that stretch. As noted in Jonnu Smith’s spotlight, the Bengals are awful against TEs, and the Steelers will likely run plenty of two-TE formations with WR Calvin Austin II unavailable.

WR Roman Wilson, WR Scotty Miller, WR Ben Skowronek, PIT: Among Steelers WRs, there isn’t much to be excited about beyond DK Metcalf. But, with Austin out another week, these three depth WRs will at least have a theoretical chance to make an impact with more snaps available. Miller was 2nd among Steelers WRs in week six snaps, but that only led to a 44% snap%. Wilson played a 25% snap% while Skowronek played a 17% snap%. Wilson was the only other Steelers’ WR, besides Metcalf, to register a target (caught his lone target for 12 yards). But, unless Aaron Rodgers only throws to Metcalf, his TEs, and his RBs again all night, one of these guys could haul in a few catches or break loose for a big play. Needless to say, they’re all total punts, however.

TE Drew Sample, CIN: Another Bengals tight end who should see a bump in receiving usage with Tanner Hudson and Mike Gesicki sidelined. Sample has actually played the most snaps among Bengals TEs this season (54% snap%), but he is often used as a blocker and only has a 38.5% RouteParticipation%, which is 7th on the team. But that figure should tick up in this game.

Stack Concepts 🥞

[*Player Name] represents captain/MVP play.

*WR Ja’Marr Chase, QB Joe Flacco, RB Jaylen Warren: There’s no question that Ja’Marr Chase is the biggest talent in this game, and even with less-than-ideal QB play following the Joe Burrow injury, he has shown his patented huge ceiling. Stack with Flacco in the FLEX and, if the game flow goes as expected (Steelers lead and run the ball + Bengals lean pass-heavy), then Jaylen Warren makes for a sensible correlation bring-back play.

*WR DK Metcalf, QB Aaron Rodgers, K Chris Boswell: As mentioned, with Calvin Austin III out, Metcalf accounted for all but one of the WR targets for the Steelers in week six and ate up nearly 70% of the total airyards. No Austin again this week, so Metcalf should have a great floor and ceiling. The Steelers have the 5th-lowest RushingTD% (23.1%), so stacking Metcalf (going for a fifth straight game w/ a TD) with Rodgers and Boswell could give you exposure to every offensive point scored by Pittsburgh in this game.

*RB Jaylen Warren, Steelers D/ST, WR Ja’Marr Chase: Despite only scoring one TD on the season while also ceding touches to Kenneth Gainwell, Jaylen Warren is the RB19 in PPR FPPG. Considering the awful Bengals run defense, this is a great chance for Warren to find the endzone for the first time since week one. RBs often correlate well with their team’s D/ST, so we’ll pair him with the Steelers D/ST. And, since Warren won’t break the bank as a CPT/MVP play, we can roll with a premier bring-back play with Ja’Marr Chase.

*WR Tee Higgins, QB Joe Flacco, WR DK Metcalf (+ Fade WR Ja’Marr Chase): Higgins has only averaged 8.7 DKFP/7.2 FDFP per game this season, but we know he still has a massive ceiling and, as discussed in Higgins’ spotlight above, new Bengals QB Joe Flacco was targeting him deep down the field fairly often last week. Fading Ja’Marr Chase in this game will be a scary proposition, but if Higgins does end up as the optimal captain/MVP play, then Chase is much more likely not to be an optimal FLEX play. So we’ll roll the dice on that approach while pairing CPT/MVP Higgins with Flacco and taking Metcalf as the big bring-back play on the Steelers side.

*QB Aaron Rodgers, WR DK Metcalf, TE Darnell Washington: Standard CPT/MVP Rodgers double-stack. Metcalf should be a lock for any CPT/MVP Rodgers lineups, but the second stack piece is interchangeable. Other Steelers pass catchers to mix into CPT/MVP Rodgers lineups (in order of preference): TE Jonnu Smith, RB Jaylen Warren, RB Kenneth Gainwell, WR Roman Wilson, WR Scotty Miller, WR Ben Skowronek, TE Pat Freiermuth, TE Connor Heyward.

*QB Joe Flacco, WR Ja’Marr Chase, WR Tee Higgins: Standard CPT/MVP Flacco double-stack featuring his clear-cut top-two receivers. One of Chase *or* Higgins should be in all CPT/MVP Flacco lineups, and it's tough not to lock in both guys. But, if you want more overall lineup flexibility, you could certainly mix in a different receiving option (or throw in a cheap third Bengals pass catcher alongside Chase and Higgins). If Flacco does end up as the optimal captain/MVP, then at least two Bengals pass catchers will, in all likelihood, end up as optimal FLEX plays. Other Bengals pass catchers to mix into CPT/MVP Flacco lineups (in order of preference): TE Noah Fant, WR Andrei Iosivas, RB Samaje Perine, RB Chase Brown, TE Drew Sample.

Once again, if you have any questions, DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!