By: Ryan Humphries

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Minnesota Vikings (-3) | 43.5 O/U

PIT: 20.3 implied points | MIN: 23.3 implied points

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: RB Dalvin Cook (Questionable, considered likely to play), WR Adam Thielen (Out)

Score Prediction: PIT - 24, MIN - 21

Game Notes: Week 14 kicks off with an interconference match-up featuring a couple of teams looking to keep themselves in the mix for a wild-card playoff bid. The Vikings (5-7) did the near-impossible in week 13 -- they allowed the Detroit Lions to snag their first victory of the season… in walk-off fashion, no less. Regular season losses don’t get much more demoralizing than that. In that game, they lost a key offensive weapon in Adam Thielen (ankle), who will not be available for TNF. However, in a major surprise, reports came in this morning stating that Dalvin Cook (dislocated shoulder) will likely suit up tonight after missing only one game with what was thought to be a multi-week injury. This will be perhaps the biggest storyline to follow for this game, at least in terms of DFS importance. When Cook is out, Alexander Mattison is a lock and load bellcow RB, so Cook being active throws a major wrench into the predicted touch distribution here. I get the feeling we’ll see more of a 50/50 split of some sort this evening… or perhaps Cook plays very sparingly or more of a decoy role while Mattison handles the bulk of the work.

On the Pittsburgh (6-5-1) side, they have a bit more momentum going their way after staving off division rival Baltimore in a 20-19 nailbiter this past Sunday. The Steelers run game has been unproductive in recent weeks and their rushing average has fallen down to 86.9 YPG (ranks 29th). With the run game struggling, the Steelers have been forced to rely a bit more upon the ancient arm of Ben Roethlisberger, who is almost certainly playing in his farewell season. The good news for Pittsburgh here is that they’ll get to go up against a Vikings defense that has been surrendering a boatload of points lately and has been allowing even the most inept of offenses to stay within striking distance. However, they are set to get some defensive help back on the field with Eric Kendrick (biceps), Anthony Barr (knee), and Patrick Peterson (COVID) all returning after missing last week.

Only one of Minnesota’s 12 games this season have been decided by more than one score and Ben Roethlisberger checks in with a 10-4 record against Mike Zimmer-coached teams in his career. With all things considered, I’ll give Pittsburgh the edge here and call for them to pull off the slight upset on the road.

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 PIT, 4-2 MIN

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

WR Justin Jefferson: The absence of Adam Thielen cannot go understated. Thielen not only vacates a strong 22% TGT% but a massive role in the redzone (26% redzone TGT%, seven RZ TDs). Thielen played on just six snaps last week before injuring his ankle. As a result, Justin Jefferson absolutely feasted, catching 11-of-14 targets for 182 yards and a TD. This won’t be a smash spot but the Steelers have allowed the third-most fantasy points over expected to WRs this season.

WR Diontae Johnson: The huge multi-touchdown game from week 13 will inflate his captain ownership a bit, but Johnson deserves to be up here in this section. He has commanded at least 11 targets in six of his last seven games and he’s notched double-digit targets in all but two games this season. Volume is king in DFS and Johnson’s 29.5% TGT% on the season now ranks him behind only Davante Adams and Cooper Kupp. Hard to go wrong with Johnson as a floor + upside captain selection. Minnesota is allowing the second-most FPPG to WRs this season, including *the* most over the last eight weeks.

QB Ben Roethlisberger: At $9,000 ($13,500 CPTN), Big Ben is the cheapest option out of the typical top tier of “QBs, alpha WRs, top RBs” which will usually make up the vast majority of captain ownership on any given showdown slate. While it may not seem exciting, Roethlisberger makes some sense as a captain selection. His best game of the season came in week 11 on the road against the Chargers when he threw for 273 yards and three scores while scoring a hair under 23 DKFP. That also happened to be Roethlisberger’s only start inside a domed stadium up to this point in the season. Whether there will be any continued correlation or not remains to be seen, but Ben’s old bones can get some reprieve tonight within the enclosed U.S. Bank Stadium in Minnesota tonight. The Vikings have also been performing poorly against the pass and have allowed 276.5 YPG and 2.3 Pass TDs/gm over their last four.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

RB Alexander Mattison: The news of Dalvin Cook (likely) suiting up tonight will make Mattison much less of an automatic “plug and play” option. But Cook’s injury is not one that is expected to be fully healed until he can get some offseason surgery. In the meantime, he is expected to be wearing some sort of sling device on the recently dislocated left shoulder. I’m confident the Vikings medical staff would not clear Cook if they didn’t truly believe he was fit to play… but this does feel a bit rushed given the fact that he only missed the one game in what most thought was going to be a multi-week absence. The running game could still realistically be centered on Mattison and, while I don’t wish for it at all, there is always the risk of Cook re-injuring his shoulder and being forced out of this game. If you can stomach some risk, Mattison remains worth a look as a FLEX play and perhaps even a low-owned captain option (in GPPs).

WR KJ Osborn: This is simply a basic “next man up” play. Osborn has had a meaningful role throughout this season but with Thielen on the shelf for at least this week’s game, Osborn steps into a major opportunity. Following the Thielen injury in week 13, Osborn played a season high 92% of snaps and was targeted seven times resulting in a 4/47/1 stat line. Justin Jefferson will be the target hog here bit Osborn should have a chance at another 6-to-8 looks from Kirk Cousins.

TE Pat Freiermuth: The rookie tight end has double-digit DKFP in five of his last seven games and, despite a forgettable week 13 stat line, he did hit a 73% snap rate. Roethlisberger has been giving Freiermuth some significant looks once the Steelers drive in close to the endzone and he was the recipient of a two-point conversion catch this past Sunday. The Vikings have been pretty tough against TEs this season (eighth-fewest FPPG allowed) but they’ve been more mediocre versus the position lately and Freiermuth should continue to grow into this newfound expanded role.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

K Greg Joseph OR Chris Boswell: Strong median projections for the price and I’d say it’s better odds than not that at least one of these kickers comes away with double-digit fantasy points. No weather to worry about with the enclosed stadium as well. I’d play one but not both within the same lineup.

TE Tyler Conklin: He’s rarely coming off the field and has most recently turned in a 95% snap% in week 13 which led to nine targets. Adam Thielen’s vacated 7.7 targets/gm can only be divvied up among so many people, but where Conklin could really see a nice boost is in the redzone. He already has a strong 23% redzone TGT% but Thielen has been Cousins’ most trustworthy and highly targeted redzone receiver. I’d expect Conklin to have a good shot at 2-4 RZ looks in this game which will bring forth some strong touchdown potential.

WR Dede Westbrook: Played 42% of the snaps in last week’s game (post-Thielen injury). He only had one catch for minus-two yards but if he’s going to be on the field for 40-50% of plays after actually having a couple of practices to build some chemistry with Kirk Cousins, he’s probably not the worst punt play in this game at $2,200. For a super sleeper, I’d keep an eye on WR Ihmir Smith-Marsette, who is priced at the stone minimum of $200 and could actually be the official “WR3” on the depth chart behind Jefferson and Osborn.

Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*Justin Jefferson, Kirk Cousins, Greg Joseph: Jefferson was trending up even before the Thielen injury and he comes into TNF with at least eight receptions and 143 yards in three of his last four. When rolling him out at captain, it’s difficult to not pair him with Cousins in the FLEX and throwing in kicker Greg Joseph rounds out a nice Minnesota three-man stack without completely breaking the bank ($6,366 left per rem. player).

*Diontae Johnson, Justin Jefferson, Tyler Conklin: Rolling with both alpha WRs in this game provides a strong floor/upside combination. No need to force a QB in at FLEX for this specific scenario.

*Ben Roethlisberger, Diontae Johnson, Pat Freiermuth: If Big Ben turns back the clock in the dome on primetime TV, he has a sneaky good shot at coming away as the optimal captain play. Maybe not a great shot, but higher than what people may expect. If he does pull that off, it’s a near guarantee that (at least) two of his pass catchers will end up as optimal FLEX plays.

*Alexander Mattison, Najee Harris, Chase Claypool: As talked about above, the news that Dalvin Cook will play tonight after a quick turnaround from a dislocated left shoulder seems somewhat too good to be true. Mattison is one of the best backup RBs in the NFL and the Vikings should have no incentive to rush Cook back into game action if he was at major risk of re-injury. But I do have a bit of a gut feeling that they remain cautious with Cook tonight while Mattison could reasonably push for 20 touches.

*KJ Osborn, Kirk Cousins, Pat Freiermuth (fade Justin Jefferson in CPTN Osborn LUs): Osborn is more of a risk/reward captain play but we’ve seen him put up a couple 20 DKFP games this season and that was with Thielen playing his normal allotted snaps. With additional opportunities on the field being handed to him, that only increases Osborn’s potential ceiling. We know that Pittsburgh will be focused on bracketing off/double-covering Justin Jefferson on most passing scenarios. If Osborn manages to become the optimal play in the captain’s chair, it likely means that Jefferson had a subpar game or, at the very least, he didn’t completely go off enough in order to return value on his slate-high $11k base salary. As a result, I would lean towards fading Jefferson in any CPTN Osborn lineup.

That will wrap us up for the Thursday Night Football Preview! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week! Be on the lookout for the newsletter covering the main slate tomorrow!

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