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Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Chargers (-3) | 44.5 O/U

Vikings: 20.8 Implied Points | Chargers: 23.8 Implied Points

Notable Skill Position Injuries: MIN QB JJ McCarthy - Questionable (expected to serve as the emergency third QB), MIN RB Aaron Jones Sr. - Questionable (expected to play), LAC RB Hassan Haskins - OUT, MIN RB Zavier Scott - Questionable, MIN FB CJ Ham - OUT, LAC RB Omarion Hampton - OUT/IR, LAC RB Najee Harris - OUT/IR

Score Prediction: Vikings - 24, Chargers - 23

Single Game Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Chargers, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Vikings

Players to Consider

Top Captains/MVPs & Core FLEX Plays 🔐

WR Justin Jefferson, MIN: Since Carson Wentz took over at QB for the injured JJ McCarthy in week three, Justin Jefferson has commanded a team-leading 28.1% Target% and 40.1% AirYard% while averaging just over 100 yards per game. The two have not connected on a touchdown yet, but with that sort of volume and Jefferson’s superstar talent, it’s only a matter of time. On the surface, this may not look like a great matchup -- the Chargers have allowed the 8th-fewest FPPG to WRs. However, top receivers have been productive against them. The Chargers are allowing the 4th-most YPG (85.5) to opposing WR1s this season. Three of the last five WR1s that the Chargers have faced (Michael Pittman Jr., Deebo Samuel, and Courtland Sutton) all scored touchdowns while scoring at least 20.8 PPR FP. If you can find a value play or two that you’re comfortable with, Jefferson is a clear captain/MVP candidate tonight.

WR Keenan Allen, LAC: Between Keenan Allen, Ladd McConkey, and Quentin Johnston, the Chargers have had arguably the most productive WR trio in the NFL this season, but the trouble for DFS is choosing the correct guy(s) to target. QB Justin Herbert and the Chargers have been the third-most pass-happy team in the NFL (64.9% PassPlay%), and Herbert has attempted 38.3 passes/gm. So there is plenty of volume for at least two Chargers receivers to put up a great stat line. It’s difficult to land on a “favorite,” but I’ll side with Keenan Allen in this game. Allen is somewhat surprisingly the WR7 in PPR scoring this season. He owns a team-leading 24.3% Target% and, perhaps more importantly, he has led the team with a 28.9% RedZone Target%, which has led to Allen scoring a touchdown in four of seven games this season. The Vikings have allowed the 5th-fewest FPPG to WRs on the season; however, over their last four games, they’ve given up the most FPOE (fantasy points over expected). So it’s not looking like a bad matchup for Keenan Allen and the other Chargers WRs.

RB Kimani Vidal, LAC: Since Omarion Hampton went down with an ankle injury in week five, which landed him on the IR, Vidal has been the clear lead back over Hassan Haskins. Vidal has played 65.7% of the offensive snaps while handling 34 touches in the last two games, compared to Haskins’ 32.1% snap% and 10 touches. Haskins has now been ruled out for tonight’s game due to a hamstring injury, which leaves Vidal as a candidate to handle an even larger percentage of the team’s RB touches in this game. We can expect at least one or two of Nyheim Miller-Hines, Jaret Patterson, or Trayveon Williams to get the call-up from the practice squad to give the Chargers some extra depth in the backfield, with Miller-Hines being the most likely of that group to see the field tonight, in a change-of-pace/third down type of role. It’s not a dream matchup, but the Vikings are a middling 16th in rush DVOA, and Vidal also has some ability as a pass catcher (nine targets over the L2Games). Vidal’s +120 anytime touchdown odds are the best of any player in this game, and you don’t often get a lead RB at these price points on a single-game slate, so he’s going to be an appealing salary-saving option at the captain/MVP spot.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain/MVP Options 🏆

QB Justin Herbert, LAC, and QB Carson Wentz, MIN: I’m not high on either QB as a captain/MVP option, but both remain strong FLEX plays given their high fantasy scoring floors. Herbert would be the preferred QB, especially since he is at home, where he has averaged 24.5 FPPG this season. However, Wentz has also averaged a respectable 18.1 FPPG in his four starts, and with the Vikings being three-point underdogs, it is more likely that the game script will favor a pass-heavy approach for Minnesota tonight. Ultimately, unless you’re playing both quarterbacks in the same lineup, I would recommend choosing the QB that correlates best with your captain/MVP selection.

RB Jordan Mason, MIN: With the expected return of RB Aaron Jones Sr., Jordan Mason’s stock takes a hit. However, he should still serve as the lead back in a 60/40-ish split, as well as handle most, or all, of the short yardage/goal line work. Jones is coming off the IR, so it’s also possible that he’ll be eased back into things and essentially soak up the snaps and touches that backup RB Zavier Scott has been handling in his absence, while Mason continues to play around 70% of the snaps. The Chargers’ defense has been getting tormented by opposing RBs, and they’ve allowed 30+ FP to each of Jonathan Taylor, De’Von Achane, and Bill Croskey-Merritt in their last three games. The Chargers head into this game ranking 30th in rush DVOA. With Mason’s likelihood of handling 15+ touches, along with his strong touchdown equity, he’s a great FLEX/leverage captain/MVP option this evening.

WR Ladd McConkey, LAC: McConkey had a fairly slow start to the season, but he has gained plenty of steam over the last few weeks and has been putting up the type of results that we expected to see following his outstanding rookie season last year. Over the last three games, McConkey leads the team with 31 targets (10.3 Targets/gm), and he saw a whopping 15 targets in week seven, though the game script was very beneficial for the Chargers’ receivers as Los Angeles trailed essentially the entire game, which led to 52 pass attempts from Justin Herbert. Nonetheless, it was nice to see McConkey soaking up a ton of targets. The Vikings have been middle-of-the-pack at defending the slot, allowing the 15th most FPPG to slot WRs (McConkey: 67% SlotRoute%).

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers 💤

TE Oronde Gadsden II, LAC: Gadsden feels like a real wild card in this game. After not playing a single snap in the Chargers’ first two games, his snap rate has steadily increased in each of the last five games, and he has played at least 75% of the snaps while seeing eight targets in each of the last two games. His 7-164-1 receiving line in week eight was one of the best rookie tight end performances of all time, and he has clearly taken over as the Chargers' primary TE. But it’s also important to remember that Justin Herbert has thrown 90 passes in the last two games and that there are still plenty of mouths to feed in this offense, with WRs Keenan Allen, Ladd McConkey, and Quentin Johnston owning the biggest slices of the target share on a week-to-week basis. Nonetheless, Gadsden is an exciting prospect, and his recent emergence can’t be ignored. At 6’5”, 236 lb, he’s a big redzone target as well, and the Vikings have allowed 6.8 receptions/gm to TEs over their last four.

K Cameron Dicker, LAC, and K Will Reichard, MIN: With so many appealing skill position players in this game, kickers will look like less sexy options than they already do. But, as usual, they still make for sensible value FLEX plays, especially considering there are no weather issues in this domed matchup. Dicker has yet to miss a kick this season, as he’s a perfect 15/15 on FGAs and 14/14 on PATs. Reichard has only missed one kick this season (13/14 on FGAs, 12/12 on PATs) and has connected on a long FG of 62 yards. So these are two solid legs to keep in the mix.

TE TJ Hockenson, MIN: The Chargers have been stingy versus TEs, allowing the 7th-fewest FPPG to the position; however, they’re 25th in TE DVOA, so they’re not as stout versus TEs as some of the surface stats would indicate. Hockenson is the clear top TE for Minnesota, having played 83% of the snaps this season. He is second on the team with an 18.3% Target% and, over the last four games (all with Wentz as the starter), he’s averaging 6.5 Targets/gm and 11.0 PPR FPPG.

WR Jalen Nailor, MIN: The return of WR Jordan Addison has diminished some of Nailor’s appeal, but he is still the WR3 and primary slot man. He has played at least 59% of the snaps in the three games since Addison returned from his suspension, has seen at least four targets in five straight games, and he scored a touchdown in week five.

WR Tre’ Harris, LAC: Harris was taken by the Chargers in the second round of this year’s draft, but he is still a distant fourth in this deep Chargers WR room, and he’ll likely need an injury to one of Allen, McConkey, or Johnston to make a significant impact. However, he was out there for 43% of snaps last week, and if the game script stays neutral, or if the Chargers end up playing from behind for a good chunk of this game, Harris could find himself out there for 30-40% of snaps again tonight, which opens the door for opportunity.

TE Josh Oliver, MIN: Oliver has played nearly half of the offensive snaps in the last two games (45% in Wk5, 46% in Wk7) and has caught two TDs from Carson Wentz within the last four games. He’s a bit of a “touchdown or bust” play in this game, but is still a worthy dart throw in this particular game.

RB Nyheim Miller-Hines, LAC: We’ll have to make sure he’s elevated to the active roster first, but, assuming he is (due to Hassan Haskins being ruled out), Miller-Hines, a capable veteran pass-catching back, would be expected to play some third downs and mix in as a change-of-pace RB behind Kimani Vidal. There are a ton of talented playmakers in this game, so there aren’t many viable cheap options. At the minimum price on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Miller-Hines is one of the few appealing punt plays if you’re looking to go for some star-studded lineups.

Update: Nyheim Miller-Hines, as well as RB Jaret Patterson, have been elevated to the Chargers’ active roster.

Stack Concepts 🥞

[*Player Name] represents captain/MVP play.

*WR Justin Jefferson, QB Carson Wentz, RB Kimani Vidal: JJ has averaged 18.3 DKFP/15.0 FDFP in the four games with Carson Wentz at QB, and that’s without scoring any TDs. He’ll find the endzone sooner rather than later, perhaps tonight. We’ll stack him with Wentz in the FLEX for correlation and run it back with an affordable lead RB in Kimani Vidal. If the Chargers lead for most/all of this game, this three-man stack should work out very well.

*WR Keenan Allen, QB Justin Herbert, TE Oronde Gadsden II: As discussed, while there are many mouths to feed in the Chargers’ passing attack, Keenan Allen has been Justin Herbert’s go-to weapon in the redzone, and the veteran WR has shown that he’s “still got it”. Stack Allen with Herbert and, in hopes of more high passing volume for the Chargers, we’ll slot in another emerging LAC pass catcher and big redzone target, Oronde Gadsden II.

*RB Kimani Vidal, K Cameron Dicker, WR Justin Jefferson: After his big 25.8 DKFP game in week six, Vidal was stifled by a solid Colts run defense and a poor game script in week seven. But, with no Hassan Haskins, he has very little competition for touches, and the game script should play out better for him with the Chargers being three-point home favorites. RBs correlate decently well with their team’s kicker (someone has to move the ball to set up FG attempts), so we’ll go with Dicker in the FLEX. And, since Vidal sets up as an affordable captain, and Dicker being an affordable FLEX, we’ll have plenty of room to fit WR Justin Jefferson in as a premium bring-back play.

*QB Justin Herbert, WR Keenan Allen, WR Ladd McConkey: Standard CPT/MVP Herbert double-stack. If Herbert does end up as the optimal captain/MVP, he is likely going to support at least two Chargers’ pass catchers as optimal FLEX plays, perhaps even three. I don’t believe any LAC pass catchers are “locks” to stack with Herbert, so feel free to mix-and-match who you decide to stack with him. Other Chargers pass catchers to consider in CPT/MVP Herbert lineups (in order of preference): WR Quentin Johnston, TE Oronde Gadsden II, RB Kimani Vidal, WR Tre’ Harris, RB Nyheim Miller-Hines, TE Will Dissly.

*QB Carson Wentz, WR Justin Jefferson, WR Jordan Addison: Standard CPT/MVP double-stack featuring his top two WRs. Jefferson should probably be a lock for any CPT/MVP Wentz lineup, but the second pass catcher is interchangeable. Addison has been great in the three games since returning to action, but the Chargers have been very stout versus WR2s, which is why Addison did not get a dedicated spotlight in this newsletter. Still, he should see some solid target volume tonight and has a decent chance to be an optimal FLEX play. Other Vikings pass catchers to mix into CPT/MVP Wentz lineups (in order of preference): TE TJ Hockenson, WR Jalen Nailor, RB Aaron Jones Sr., TE Josh Oliver, RB Jordan Mason.

*RB Jordan Mason, K Will Reichard, WR Keenan Allen: This is similar to the CPT/MVP Vidal stack above, just flipping sides over to Mason and the Vikings' run game. As discussed, Mason does lose some appeal with Aaron Jones Sr. expected to return from the IR for tonight’s game. But the Chargers’ run defense has also been obliterated in recent weeks, and Mason owns the best odds of any player to find the endzone tonight. Stack with Will Reichard for some correlation and go with a Chargers’ receiver on the bring-back.

*WR Ladd McConkey, QB Justin Herbert, WR Justin Jefferson: As discussed, 31 targets over the last three games makes McConkey the most-targeted Chargers receiver in that span, and the Vikings aren’t overly stout against the slot. I believe there is a decent chance of another McConkey spike week in this game, similar to his week six performance (7-100-1 receiving line). So, we’ll stack him with Justin Herbert and, given McConkey’s affordability at CPT/MVP, you can’t really go wrong with taking Justin Jefferson as the big-money bring-back play.

Once again, if you have any questions, DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!