By: Ryan Humphries

Find me on Twitter and in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries 

Catch up on all other LineStar NFL content:

🏈 2021 NFL Season Preview & Strategy Guide

🥇 Single Game Showdown Tips & Strategy (Top Half of the Article)

🔊 PreSnap Podcast every Tuesday, Thursday & Friday!

👇 Subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts! 👇

iTunes | Google Podcasts | Spotify | iHeartRADIO | Stitcher | YouTube

NFL Week 12 Primetime Preview

Since the Bills/Saints primetime game was lumped in with the three-game Thanksgiving slate, we decided to keep our focus for this week’s “Primetime Preview” towards the two island games being played on Sunday and Monday nights. SNF will feature a pivotal AFC North battle between the 7-3 Ravens and 6-5 Browns. It’s a game that may carry some notable postseason impacts as we enter the final third of the regular season. The MNF match-up between 3-7 Seattle and 4-6 Washington commands no real significant interest if I’m being honest. Regardless, we may see a fairly entertaining game take place considering Vegas is basically pinning this Monday night game as a “pick ‘em”. But we’re here to win some scratch in these primetime single-game DFS contests… so let’s try to do that!

Note: At the time of this writing, showdown salaries are not available for the MNF game.

Due to how the rosters are constructed for single-game NFL slates, this article is more geared towards a DraftKings-specific GPP approach.

Perfect Lineups from Week 11 Primetime Games

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) | 47 O/U

CLE: 21.8 implied points | BAL: 25.3 implied points

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: WR Marquise Brown (thigh) - Questionable, RB Kareem Hunt (calf) - IR (expected to be activated), WR Donovan Peoples-Jones (groin) - Questionable

Score Prediction: CLE - 20, BAL - 24

Game Notes: The Ravens get Lamar Jackson back on the field after he missed week 11 due to an illness. On the other side, Cleveland may have both primary pieces to their dynamic backfield available for the first time since week five as Kareem Hunt is expected to be activated off of IR to join running mate Nick Chubb. Cleveland has been about as one-dimensional as it gets this season but when they get their running game going, it tends to work very well behind their elite offensive line. This game features two of the top three rushing offenses in the NFL and neither team operates at a particularly fast pace. I believe the most likely scenario here is a somewhat low-scoring, close game which Baltimore manages to win due to simply having the better quarterback on their side.

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 BAL, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 CLE, and a sprinkle of 5-1 BAL “Smash” Builds

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

QB Lamar Jackson: He’s reportedly “feeling great” after missing last week’s game due to a mysterious illness (non-COVID related). Lamar has excelled at home and the Browns have struggled on the road where they have allowed 26.0 DKFP/gm this season.

RB Nick Chubb: There is some worry he will cede some vital touches to Kareem Hunt, assuming Hunt does get activated off of IR ahead of the SNF showdown. But, as we know, Chubb is always the 1A option in the running game, though the sledding may be difficult against the Ravens, who rank 6th in run DVOA.

WR Marquise Brown: Missed his first game of the season last week with a thigh injury and was only able to get in limited practices Wednesday thru Friday. While the injury doesn’t seem serious, he may be a true game time decision. If he’s healthy enough to go, Brown should continue to be the top option in the Ravens receiving game against a Browns secondary which has struggled on the road.

FLEX Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

QB Baker Mayfield: He has just one game this season where he has scored over 20 FP and his $14,700 CPTN salary is a steep price to pay for a QB that has shown such limited upside. That leaves him as more of a FLEX play in this game. However, I do believe Baker can perform better than what he’s shown on the field this week. While he doesn’t carry an injury designation into this game, he has dealt with shoulder, groin, and foot injuries at various points throughout the season. If he actually feels closer to 100%, perhaps he can take advantage of a Ravens defense that checks in at 27th in pass DVOA.

TE Mark Andrews: Andrews would vault into the “captain/core” section above if Marquise Brown misses a second consecutive week as that would vacate a 23.8% target share. But if Brown is active, Andrews steps in a solid FLEX play who is a good bet to bring in 60-80 yards worth of receiving with a shot at a TD. Andrews possesses a team-leading 27.8% redzone TGT%.

RB Kareem Hunt: Assuming he’s activated will he be 100%? And even if he is 100%, will the Browns give him his usual complement of touches? If the answer to both of those questions is “yes” then Hunt makes for one of the largest leverage plays in this game.

RB Devonta Freeman: Figuring out the Ravens backfield has been one of the biggest head-scratchers of the season. Freeman is coming off of his most involved game of the year (16 car, 49 yards, TD, caught 6-of-6 targets for 31 yards). Lamar’s return takes some of his rushing potential away but, for now, it would seem that Freeman is the preferred back to roster in this Ravens offense.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

K Justin Tucker: Best in the business. Scored double-digit FP in 6-of-10 games this season.

WR Jarvis Landry: Difficult match-up against Ravens slot corner Tavon Young but Landry is the easy favorite to lead Cleveland in targets.

WR Rashod Bateman: Built some strong rapport with Lamar Jackson prior to Lamar sitting last week. He has earned a solid 18.8% TGT% since making his NFL debut off the IR back in week six. If Marquise Brown sits, Bateman becomes more of a FLEX/leverage CPTN option.

RB Latavius Murray: If Coach Harbaugh pulls a fast one on us and decides to feature Murray over Freeman, the former may have half the ownership of the latter. It’s never out of the realm of possibilities that Murray falls into the endzone a time or two either.

TE Austin Hooper: While they have improved, Baltimore’s defense has had plenty of issues covering the tight end (fourth most FPPG allowed). Hooper’s upside is definitely suspect but he is coming off of a season-high in targets (7) in week 11. 

Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, Justin Tucker: Decent chance of soaking up the majority (or all) of the Ravens offensive points scored with this stack.

*Nick Chubb, Devonta Freeman, Lamar Jackson: Realistically this game may see upwards of 70% run plays. If that is the case, this stack may work out very well. As a reminder, this game features two of the top three rushing offenses in the NFL.

*Baker Mayfield, Jarvis Landry, Austin Hooper: This is a “Baker Mayfield comes out of nowhere and passes for 300+ yards for the first time since week five” stack. The Ravens defense can be beaten through the air. It all comes down to how efficient Mayfield can be since, even if Chubb/Hunt are getting stifled or Cleveland falls behind by multiple scores, the Browns will still likely stay committed to the run.

*Marquise Brown, Lamar Jackson, Kareem Hunt: In five home games, Brown is averaging 93.8 YPG and 22.6 DKFP. As long as he is healthy, he could post another excellent home performance against a Browns secondary that has faltered in away games.

5-1 Ravens “Smash” Builds: Showdown slates have produced a much higher-than-expected optimal lineup that features a 5-1 “smash” build. These 5-1 lineups make up only around 10-15% of the total lineups in single game GPPs so there is always massive leverage to be had if you can predict a one-sided blowout correctly.

Seattle Seahawks at Washington Football Team (-1) | 46.5 O/U

SEA: 22.8 implied points | WAS: 23.8 implied points

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: RB Antonio Gibson (shin) - Questionable, RB Alex Collins (abdomen) - Questionable, RB JD McKissic (ankle) - Questionable, RB Travis Homer (calf) - Questionable, WR Curtis Samuel (groin) - Questionable, RB Rashaad Penny (hamstring) - Questionable, RB Chris Carson (neck) - IR/OUT, TE Logan Thomas (hamstring) - IR (has a chance to play), TE Ricky Seals-Jones (hip) - Questionable, WR Adam Humphries (hip) - Questionable

Score Prediction: SEA - 24, WAS - 23

Game Notes: Well… that is certainly one of the longest lists of “DFS relevant injuries” that I’ve typed out in a while. There are plenty of banged up bodies on both sides of this game, especially in each team’s respective backfields. We’ll know much more about these situations once the injury report comes out on Sunday.

As you can tell, this is essentially a pick ‘em with Washington being the slight one point favorites at home. The Football Team is certainly carrying the momentum into this match-up after coming off of impressive back-to-back wins against the Panthers and Buccaneers. Meanwhile, Russell Wilson’s return since recovering from his finger injury has been a disappointment, to say the least. Seattle was shut out against Green Bay in week 10 and mustered only 13 points last week against the Cardinals. That begs the question… did Russell’s family “let him cook” on Thanksgiving? Neither team here has any significant shot at a postseason berth but I’m going to predict that Seattle “gets right” on offense this week and comes away with the very, very slight upset on the road.

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 SEA, 4-2 WAS, 3-3 Balanced (no significant interest in 5-1 builds in either direction)

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

QB Russell Wilson: If there is any week to bounce back, it would be against this Washington defense which has allowed the most FPPG to QBs this season to go along with 2.4 passing TDs per game.

QB Taylor Heinicke: He’s been a surprisingly useful DFS asset this season and what he lacks in elite arm talent, he can make up for with legitimate rushing ability (27.6 rushing YPG this season).

WR Terry McLaurin: If McLaurin had a top 10 QB throwing to him, I have no doubt that he’d be among the top 3-to-5 WRs in the league, stats wise. With Heinicke throwing him and defenses knowing McLaurin is the primary guy that they need to take away, he has still posted four 24+ DKFP performances on the season. That’s enough to keep him well within CPTN consideration.

WR DK Metcalf: If Wilson bounces back, so should Metcalf. He only has one game on the season with double digit targets but Metcalf has the ability to take any catch to the house and he also brings an absurdly high 39.3% Redzone TGT% to the table. WAS has allowed the 4th most FPPG to WRs.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

WR Tyler Lockett: The floor is far too low to consider Lockett as a reliable CPTN option. But given his tendency to either post a monster performance or completely dud, I’d maybe look to either play him as a low-owned leverage CPTN option (in GPPs) or not at all. If you find any method to ever reliably predict when Lockett will have one of his “boom” games, please let me know!

RB Antonio Gibson: The shin injury was never something that was going to completely heal this season so it is no surprise that Gibson is “questionable” this week, once again. It still hasn’t stopped Washington from giving him 43 carries over the last two weeks. Perhaps having the week nine bye helped a bit.

RB DeeJay Dallas: The upside for Dallas would drastically increase if some combination of Collins, Homer, and Penny are ruled out. In what was a four-headed Seattle backfield, Dallas tied for the lead in RB snaps in week 11 with 18 (37% snap%). He was the most productive of the four, finding the endzone and averaging 6.3 YPC. In general, this is a backfield to avoid, but pending some other guys getting ruled out, I’d say Dallas may be the preferred option here. Though, I don’t love it.

TE Logan Thomas: *If he’s active. Washington has been desperate for viable receiving threats outside of Terry McLaurin and Thomas’ potential return would be a significant boost for this offense. He is a huge 6’6” target that runs a route on essentially every drop back and would be a major factor in the redzone.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

WR DeAndre Carter: Carter has scored a touchdown in three consecutive games… which is obviously something we cannot rely on. However, he has been playing on over 60% of snaps and has some chemistry built with Heinicke.

RB JD McKissic: He has seen less involvement over the last two weeks simply because Washington has been playing with a lead more often. If they fall behind Seattle on the scoreboard, McKissic has proven to be highly valuable as a receiver out of the backfield.

TE Gerald Everett: 11 receptions for 100 yards over the last two games and that was with Seattle’s offense playing about as poorly as possible. Everett likely needs a TD to come away as an optimal play, but he’s one of the better filler options out of this price range.

Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*Russell Wilson + Two SEA Pass Catchers: Wilson isn’t providing much value with his legs these days so it’s best to view him as more of a typical pocket passer. When rostering a more traditional pocket passer at CPTN, I will usually try to pair two pass catchers along with him. In order for a pocket passer to come away as the optimal CPTN selection, at least two of his receivers will usually come away with strong FLEX-worthy games as well.

*Terry McLaurin, Taylor Heinicke, DeeJay Dallas: If some other Washington receivers can step up and take some pressure away from McLaurin, he’s in a strong spot to snag his fifth 100-yard game of the season.

*DK Metcalf, Russell Wilson, DeAndre Carter: It’s a near dream match-up for Metcalf as he’ll get to run up against a Washington secondary that has surrendered the 3rd most FPPG to perimeter WRs (Metcalf - 79% perimeter routes).

*Tyler Lockett, Taylor Heinicke, Logan Thomas: This stack kind of calls back to my “play Lockett at CPTN or not at all” approach. Maybe this backfires but it just seems like Lockett will either have one of his huge ceiling games with a shot at coming away as the optimal captain, or he puts up a stat line like 3/27/0 and doesn’t even come close to being an optimal FLEX play.

*Antonio Gibson, DK Metcalf, Gerald Everett: After a first quarter fumble landed him on the bench for the majority of the first half last week, Washington eventually went back to Gibson where he rushed 14 times for 76 yards (5.4 YPC) in the second half, which helped salt away the Panthers in a 27-21 win. The 95 yards rushing in week 11 was a season high for Gibson but his involvement in the passing game has been minimal. He’ll likely need 100+ yards and a TD (or two) in order to earn optimal captain honors, but it’s a feasible possibility against Seattle’s defense (2nd most FPPG allowed to RBs).

That will wrap us up for the Week 12 Primetime Preview! Be sure to check out the main slate breakdown linked in the header. Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week! Be on the lookout for the newsletter covering the main slate tomorrow!

Let us know if you enjoyed the issue with a Yes/No below!