By: Ryan Humphries

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NFL Week 4 Primetime Preview

The week three TNF & MNF games were pretty forgettable but, man, what a fun one we got on Sunday Night Football between the Packers and 49ers! The primetime windows thus far have been producing some incredibly entertaining match-ups and we might get a couple more great ones in week four. Tom Brady returning to Foxboro on Sunday night with a near-100% chance of breaking the all-time NFL passing yardage record will EASILY be the top NFL narrative of the entire week -- and, hey, it’s a good one… no doubt. But we also have the NFL’s #1 overall draft picks from the last two years facing off on TNF along with a huge AFC West match-up on MNF between the Raiders and Chargers -- two teams who are poised to challenge the Chiefs for the division title. Let’s dive in!

Due to how the rosters are constructed for single-game NFL slates, this is more geared towards a DraftKings GPP approach.

Perfect Lineups from Week 3 Primetime Games

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) | 46 O/U

JAX: 19.3 implied points | CIN: 26.8 implied points

Notable Offensive Skill Position Injuries: WR Tee Higgins (shoulder) - Out, TE James O’Shaughnessy (ankle) - IR/Out, K Josh Lambo (personal) - Out

Score Prediction: JAX - 17, CIN - 31

Lineup Construction: The top overall picks from the 2020 and 2021 NFL drafts square off in Cincy. This won’t be the first time Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence have faced each other on the old gridiron. This is a QB rematch of the 2019-20 CFP National Championship, in which Burrow and the LSU Tigers won 42-25 over Lawrence and the Clemson Tigers. The NFL life has not been kind to Trevor Lawrence early on. He has thrown multiple interceptions in each of his first three career games, seven in total, en route to an 0-3 record. Lawrence’s 23.1 QBR ranks 30th in the NFL, ahead of only fellow struggling rookies Zach Wilson and Justin Fields. The 2-1 Bengals are looking solid behind second-year QB Joe Burrow and a defense that has performed surprisingly well, currently ranking 4th in overall DVOA. I believe 4-2 Bengals-heavy builds will be the preferred (but also most popular) builds in showdown DFS contests. Even 3-3 and 4-2 Jags builds will have some viability as well. I could see several scenarios where this game works itself into a Cincy blowout win, so 5-1 Bengals ‘smash’ builds will set up as an intriguing GPP route to take.

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

QB Joe Burrow: Only 213.3 YPG passing thus far but he’s getting it done in the touchdown department with 2.3 TDs/gm. We have yet to see Burrow attempt more than 29 passes in 2021 and the projected game script for this match-up could lead to another week of <30 passes. However, Jacksonville has the third-worst pass DVOA, so if Burrow does air it out, he has a great shot at becoming the optimal captain selection. Of note: he will be without top WR target Tee Higgins for this game.

RB Joe Mixon: After crushing in week one, Mixon’s previous two games have not been all too productive. The volume is not an issue, however, as he is averaging 24.3 touches/gm. He’ll run against a Jags team that has allowed 28.8 DKFP/gm to opposing RBs (6th most). The game script as a 7+ point home favorite is always a good omen for RBs. I would love to see him more involved in the passing game as well. Without Tee Higgins available, Mixon’s chances of seeing 3-5 targets could increase.

QB Trevor Lawrence: Better days are ahead for Lawrence but it won’t be easy on Thursday (CIN: 8th in pass DVOA, 11th fewest FPPG allowed to QBs). But essentially any QB needs to carry captain consideration in showdown formats. Lawrence has provided a bit more value on the ground in the last two weeks, adding a combined 48 yards on eight carries. To state the obvious, he really must stop throwing all those interceptions.

WR Ja’Marr Chase: He’s clearly established as the Bengals downfield threat with a team-leading 16.5 aDOT and 44% AirYard%. Jags have allowed the 11th most FP to perimeter WRs, where Chase has ran 73% of his routes. The Jags also traded away 2020 1st round pick CJ Henderson to the Panthers this past week and, while he wasn’t performing all too well, the move still leaves Jacksonville thin at the DB position. With no Tee Higgins, Chase’s volume and ceiling should also be more secure.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

WR Marvin Jones Jr.: Aside from Lawrence's three-game multi-interception streak, MJJ has been about the only other consistent thing about this Jags offense. He’s establishing himself as Lawrence’s go-to WR, averaging 9.3 targets/gm which translates to an excellent 25.3% TGT%. CIN is allowing the 8th most FPPG to perimeter WRs.

WR Tyler Boyd: Boyd may ultimately be the largest beneficiary from the absence of Higgins. I would predict an absolute floor of six targets for Boyd. JAX has allowed the 10th most FPPG to slot WRs, which is where Boyd operates almost exclusively (95% of routes ran from the slot).

RB James Robinson: Borderline captain/core play, but the implied game script simply hurts his rushing upside. The nice thing is he has averaged five targets/gm and caught 6-of-6 last week for 46 yards. I would like to see his 64% snap rate increase, but he’s clearly the most talented back on this team and his touches have progressively increased each week this season (21 total in week three).

WR DJ Chark Jr.: Averaging 7.3 targets/gm (19.1% TGT%) and a team-high 16.3 aDOT but the 31.8% catch rate is downright awful. Plenty of that can be blamed on Lawrence. He’ll likely see multiple deep shots in a pass-heavy game script on Thursday night.

WR Laviska Shenault Jr.: He’s built more like a RB/WR hybrid and it’s no surprise that the Jags are delivering him targets (7.0 tgt/gm) close to the line of scrimmage (4.6 aDOT). Full PPR scoring makes him more viable but he’ll need a touchdown or a lot of YAC, or both if he has any chance of making the optimal lineup. It’s certainly possible.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

Bengals D/ST: As mentioned, Lawrence has been a turnover machine. Lawrence has only been sacked five times this season but the Bengals pass rush has racked up at least three sacks each game this year.

TE Dan Arnold: Arnold was acquired from the Panthers via trade earlier this week. He’ll fill an immediate role with James O’Shaughnessy currently riding the IR.

K Evan McPherson: He’s made 100% of his kicks thus far (4/4 FG, 8/8 XP) including a long FG of 53 yards. The Bengals could reasonably push for 30+ points, leaving McPherson with a nice median projection for his $3,800 salary.

WR Auden Tate: Saw a 57% snap rate without Higgins available last week. At only $400 on DK, two or three catches for 30+ yards would lead to easy value.

Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection

*Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Auden Tate, Marvin Jones Jr.: Simple Bengals pass attack stack with the reliable Marvin Jones Jr. Jags piece to run it back on the other side.

*Ja’Marr Chase, Joe Burrow, Tyler Boyd: Chase over Burrow at captain opens up a bit more salary elsewhere and would make it easier to fit Boyd in as well. Both WRs could comfortably come away with 12+ combined catches, 200+ combined yards receiving, and multiple combined TDs.

*Trevor Lawrence, Marvin Jones Jr., Joe Mixon: The safest Jags passing stack paired with Mixon, the opposing workhorse RB who likely has a strong projected game script working in his favor.

*Joe Mixon, DJ Chark Jr., Laviska Shenault Jr.: Mixon had a career game against JAX last season (25 carries, 151 yards, 6 rec., 30 yards, 3 TDs -- 45 DKFP) and he’s a very safe bet to get 20+ touches once again this week. No one else in this game has higher multi-touchdown potential than Mixon.

5-1 Bengals Stacks: If Cincy wins this game with a score of, say, 31-9, is anyone going to actually be very surprised? Probably not. The chances of the optimal showdown lineup containing five Bengals is higher than what the actual percentage of 5-1 Bengals lineups in GPPs will ultimately be if that makes sense. (e.g. say the Bengals have a 20% real life chance of absolutely blowing the doors off of the Jaguars in this game with a 20+ point victory while JAX scores <14 points. It's likely only 10-15% of showdown DFS lineups will implement a 5-1 Bengals lineup build, which would become more favorable/optimal in such a lopsided blowout scenario).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7) @ New England Patriots | 49 O/U

TB: 28.0 implied points | NE: 21.0 implied points

Notable Offensive Skill Position Injuries: TE Rob Gronkowski (ribs) - Questionable, WR Antonio Brown (C19) - Questionable, RB Gio Bernard (knee) - Questionable, RB James White (hip) - Out, WR Scottie Miller (toe) - Out/IR

Score Prediction: TB - 33, NE: 23

Lineup Construction: Ahh, Tom Brady returns to Foxboro where he’ll have the opportunity to break the NFL’s all-time passing yardage record, currently held by Drew Brees. Brady is 68 yards short of the record so you can pretty much bet the house that he breaks it sometime in the first half on Sunday night. If anyone would know how to stop a Brady-led offense, it would certainly be Bill Belichick, but the overall talent differential between these two teams is noticeable and is evidenced by the Bucs heading in as seven-point road favorites. 4-2 Bucs builds will be the preferred approach. However, I don’t mind even 3-3 builds or perhaps some 4-2 Patriots contrarian builds. If you’re playing 20+ lineups, a sprinkle of 5-1 Bucs ‘smash’ builds will once again be viable from a heavy leverage standpoint.

Game Note: The weather could be a bit wet in Foxboro on Sunday night (see current forecast outlook below)

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

QB Tom Brady: The GOAT is coming off of a loss and has no shortage of narratives to bring along with him into Gillette Stadium. Given the woes of the Tampa Bay backfield and the Bucs leading the NFL with a 75.4% pass play%, I could envision Brady chucking it for all four quarters even if there is a sizable late-game Bucs lead. Of note: the Pats defense does possess the 4th best pass DVOA... not sure if that means anything against Tom Brady, however.

WR Mike Evans: He currently possesses the slight team lead with a 19.3% TGT% and a team-high 342 Air Yards (31.3% AirYard%). Usage gets a clear bump if Antonio Brown (C19) and/or Rob Gronkowski (ribs) miss this game.

WR Chris Godwin: The less volatile option in the passing game compared to Evans. Godwin has scored a touchdown each week this season and sees more higher-percentage intermediate targets. 76% catch% on 25 total targets including a 100% catch% in the red zone. Most QBs, and someone like Brady especially, take note of who they can rely on in the red zone, and Godwin has clearly come through as a reliable option. His usage also gets a clear bump if Antonio Brown (C19) and/or Rob Gronkowski miss this game.

QB Mac Jones: Jones has yet to have a truly solid game in the NFL but he does lead all of the rookie QBs with a 52.0 QBR (ranks 21st in NFL) and he’s averaging 40 att/gm. It’s pretty well-known at this point that the best way to attack this Bucs defense is through the air. Running the ball is just very difficult against that front seven and they’re allowing just 3.1 yards per rush attempt (3rd lowest). Jones is worth captain consideration based on volume alone.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

TE Rob Gronkowski/WR Antonio Brown: This is being written on Wednesday night, so plenty can develop between now and Sunday night. At this time, I’m assuming at least one of these guys will be available to play. Both would rank just behind Evans and Godwin in the Bucs receiver preference hierarchy.

WR Jakobi Meyers: He has a near-elite 24% TGT%. Meyers stands to benefit from the hip injury to James White, which will, unfortunately, cost him the remainder of the season. White is of course well-known to be a premiere pass-catching back who moves the chains via short screens and dump-offs. With White going down early last week, Meyers went on to see 14 targets (catching nine for 94 yards). Meyers has been the recipient of a third of New England’s total air yards and should likely operate as Mac Jones’ go-to receiver for the foreseeable future.

RB Damien Harris: Again, this won’t be an easy spot for the New England run game, but if Harris is going to handle 15+ touches, he could break loose on one of those carries. Obviously, a touchdown would go a long way as well.

RB Leonard Fournette: I’d honestly consider fading all Bucs RBs in this game, but if you’re picking one, Fournette is the best bet right now. Ronald Jones II has seemingly resided in Bruce Arians’ dog house since week one. Meanwhile, Gio Bernard (knee) is banged up and even if he’s able to suit up, the Bucs likely won’t be playing from behind much (if at all) in this game, so his pass-catching services would not be needed all too much. Fournette’s 49.3% snap% leads the way among Bucs RBs and he has been targeted 14 times through three games as well. New England's defense ranks 28th in run DVOA.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

WR Nelson Agholor: Many believed Agholor would be the Pats WR1 entering the season. He certainly still has time to emerge into that role. For the time being, his 15% TGT% ranks 2nd on the team and his 14.7 aDOT is the highest among all Pats receivers. He’s a bit boom/bust, but will definitely have some upside. Agholor has rarely left the field with an 84% snap% this season.

WR Kendrick Bourne: 58% snap% on the season including a 76% snap% in week three when he was targeted eight times and went for 6/96/1 (21.6 DKFP). After the strong week three, he could continue to see his role expanded and the Pats are looking to be involved in a pass-heavy game script once again on Sunday night.

WR Tyler Johnson: *If Antonio Brown is out. Johnson played 47% of offensive snaps last week with AB out and that was prior to the now-injured Scottie Miller also soaking up a 44% snap% in that game. Miller is already guaranteed to be out in week four so if AB misses a second consecutive game, Johnson should be on the field for nearly every play in 3WR sets. The Bucs have run 3+ WR sets on 71% of offensive plays thus far in 2021.

TE Hunter Henry: When it comes to Pats TEs, I would give Henry the slight edge over Jonnu Smith due to his snap count advantage. Henry has played 74.6% of snaps versus Smith’s 55.6% snap%. Both guys have had similar target volume and will likely be touchdown dependent if either is to make it into the final optimal lineup.

RB JJ Taylor: He’s a *potential* candidate to take over some (or all) of the “James White role”. Taylor is only 5’6”, 185 lbs but, as you might expect, he’s a versatile, shifty player who can make guys miss in space. It wouldn’t surprise me if Rhamondre Stevenson, who fumbled in week one and has been a healthy scratch ever since is activated this week. But while Taylor hasn’t seen much time on the field, he has been the guy who’s been active. Brandon Bolden actually led all Pats RBs with a 44% snap% in week three after White went down, but he’s such a core piece to their special teams, I’d be surprised if they don’t manufacture an RB game plan geared more towards Harris/Taylor/Stevenson throughout practice this week and keep Bolden in his ST role. Just a thought. Trying to predict what Bill Belichick is going to do is a futile venture.

K Ryan Succop: Always a reliable kicking option for a team that could eclipse 30 points. Good chance at double-digit FPs.

Buccaneers D/ST: Well within FLEX consideration against a rookie QB who just threw three picks in his last start.

Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*Tom Brady, Chris Godwin, Jakobi Meyers: Stacking Brady with his most reliable WR. Run it back with Meyers, who should carry a strong PPR floor and is a very reasonable bet to lead all Pats players in targets, catches, and receiving yards.

*Mike Evans, Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski (assuming he’s active): If Brady throws four touchdowns, Evans and Gronk could be on the receiving end of all of them.

*Jakobi Meyers, Mac Jones, Nelson Agholor, (+ one more NE pass catcher, RB, or K Nick Folk): A good core to a contrarian 4-2 Patriots leverage build. Mac Jones could be flipped with Meyers at CPT.

*Chris Godwin, Tom Brady, Ryan Succop: The “Bucs safe floor” trio (could flip Godwin and Brady at CPT). Tampa Bay should move the ball well but the Patriots defense is at least good enough to stall some drives in their own territory. I’d expect at least a couple FGA for Succop to go with his XPs.

*Damien Harris, Rob Gronkowski, Leonard Fournette: Three players most likely to be heavily involved near the endzone. Perhaps the Patriots and Damien Harris can be the ones who figure out how to get through this Bucs run defense. Harris will absolutely be a low-owned captain selection but has multi-touchdown upside, theoretically. It’s possible, with a full week of practice sans James White, that Harris becomes more involved as a pass-catcher out of the backfield as well.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) | 52.5 O/U

LV: 24.5 implied points | LAC: 28.0 implied points

Notable Offensive Skill Position Injuries: QB Justin Herbert (hand) - Questionable, RB Josh Jacobs (ankle) - Questionable

Score Prediction: LV - 27, LAC - 33

Lineup Construction: I imagine this game is capable of going either way quite easily, so don’t put too much weight on that score prediction. Also, Herbert’s hand injury doesn’t appear to be serious enough to sideline him come Monday night, so no real worries there. Based on the 52.5 O/U, this is expected to be among the highest-scoring NFL match-ups in week four. Building showdown lineups for this one should be fun, given all of the fantasy-viable weapons that reside on both sides of the ball. I would stick with even 3-3 builds and 4-2 builds (both sides) here. Even from the most contrarian of angles, I’d be floored to see a 5-1 ‘smash’ build end up as the optimal lineup construction, so that’ll be off the board for me personally in this game.

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

QB Justin Herbert: Once again, that hand injury that has landed Herbert on the injury report should be healed up by Monday. The Chargers are passing the ball on 65.2% of plays this season (6th most) and Herbert will be the most talented passer the Raiders defense (currently ranked 12th in pass DVOA) has faced up to this point.

QB Derek Carr: Two games going into overtime have certainly helped to inflate his numbers a bit, but Carr currently leads the NFL with 1,203 yards through the air (401 YPG) and he’s thrown multiple touchdowns in all three games. The Chargers have held two very good QBs (Mahomes & Prescott) in check this season but their 15th ranked pass DVOA tells us that perhaps they’re not as stingy as the numbers may indicate. Another 300+ yard day could be in order for Carr, especially if Vegas falls behind early.

RB Austin Ekeler: After zero targets in week one, 16 targets in the last two games is more like it. Ekeler will get his 10-15 carries on the ground as well, though the Raiders have been surprisingly stout against the run-up to this point. A shootout environment should only stand to benefit Ekeler. He’s coming off of a season-high 74% snap rate in week three against the Chiefs, which was also a close, higher-scoring affair.

WR Mike Williams/Keenan Allen: Is there a changing of the guard with the Chargers WR1 honors? I wouldn’t say that just yet. Both guys have very similar numbers through three weeks with the only glaring difference being Williams’ four TDs to Allen’s one. See the breakdown below:

Williams: 10.3 targets/gm, 25.7% TGT%, 9.3 aDOT, 34.3% AirYard%, 22 rec, 295 yards, 4 TDs

Allen: 11.0 targets/gm, 27.3% TGT%, 8.3 aDOT, 32% AirYard%, 21 rec, 258 yards, 1 TD

Keenan Allen actually has eight red-zone targets to Williams’ five as well, so the touchdowns will likely even out sooner or later. Regardless, both guys make for great captain plays in this game.

TE Darren Waller: After a massive 19 target week one where Waller went for 10/105/1, he’s put up very pedestrian numbers in the last two games, catching 5-of-7 targets in each of the last two weeks for about 60 yards. Carr simply realized that he can actually spread the ball around instead of predictably locking in on Waller every other play. The big games will still come and Waller’s ceiling continues to reside in the stratosphere. The Chargers have allowed the 6th most FPPG to TEs this season so perhaps this is a solid ‘buy-low ‘spot for Waller in terms of captain ownership.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

WR Henry Ruggs III: Despite a fairly modest 15.7% TGT%, Ruggs leads the Raiders in receiving yards and his 16.3 aDOT tops the charts as well. He’s going to be volatile many weeks but things do appear as if they’re starting to click.

RB Peyton Barber: *If Jacobs is ruled out. Barber has been a career J.A.G. (just a guy) but did have one of his best games ever this past week against Miami when he rushed 23 times for 111 yards and a TD while catching 3/5 targets for 31 additional yards. While his 57% snap% led Kenyan Drake (43% snap%) by a slim margin, Barber was either handed the ball or targeted on 59.6% of his snaps… which is kinda wild. A repeat performance should not be expected, even if Jacobs is out once again, but the Chargers have been leaky in their run defense and have allowed the 9th most FPPG to RBs and a league-worst 5.8 YPC.

WR Hunter Renfrow: He has a very well-defined role out of the slot and works almost as an extension of the Raiders run game where he helps move the chains on short/intermediate routes (8.2 aDOT). Renfrow has been getting some red zone looks as well and should play around 50-60% of snaps on Monday night.

K Daniel Carlson/Tristan Vizcaino: With such a top-heavy set of stud players in this game, rostering one of these kickers should be a nice way of saving salary while receiving a strong median projection. It helps that this is a domed match-up as well.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

RB Kenyan Drake: Despite getting paid handsomely to come to play for the Raiders, Drake is more of an afterthought in this offense even with Josh Jacobs banged up. He has seen at least five targets in every game but has not eclipsed more than eight carries. He’ll be a bit TD/big play dependent, but worth some consideration from a contrarian angle.

WR Bryan Edwards: The volume is not there at the moment (10.3% TGT%) but Edwards has been getting deep looks (15.8 aDOT) and now has two 80+ yard games on the season. He could be the forgotten man among the likes of Waller, Ruggs, and Renfrow… but the Chargers secondary may see it that way as well, which could lead to softer coverage.

TE Jared Cook: It’s difficult to make a splash when nearly 75% of Chargers targets are being funneled to either Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, or Austin Ekeler. However, Cook still has a notable role in the offense and will post some 5/60/1 kinda games this year. He currently has a 13% TGT% and 61.9% snap% on the season.

WR Jalen Guyton: He's seeing some quality snaps (66.1% snap%), just not getting much attention (see Jared Cook above). But the main point here is that he is on the field plenty, so that’s always a start. Ya can’t make any big plays if you’re not even out there on the field! Guyton’s MO is more of a deep threat or gadget player, but he won’t necessarily need high volume to return value in this game.

TE Foster Moreau: The Raiders actually run two TE sets more than the majority of NFL teams which has led to a 55.7% snap% for Moreau this season. He’s a complete punt in showdown contests but, assuming he’s a <$2,000 player once salaries are released for this game, he returns value on just one TD catch.

Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*Justin Herbert, Mike Williams, Keenan Allen: Without knowing what the showdown salaries will be for these guys at the time of this writing, I’m already going to assume that this stack will leave you very thin elsewhere. Regardless, it’s one way to load up on a pass-happy offense with a QB and his two WRs who have accounted for 50+% of the Chargers entire target share.

*Derek Carr, Darren Waller, Hunter Renfrow: Similar approach as the stack above except the Raiders side of the ball -- though Renfrow is not exactly close to a 25% TGT% WR like Allen/Williams. Waller and Renfrow are the most reliable pass-catching options in this offense however, and we know what sort of ceiling Waller can provide.

*Austin Ekeler, Justin Herbert, Henry Ruggs III: Ekeler is one of the rare RBs where intentionally stacking him with his QB makes plenty of sense. Running it back here with Ruggs on the other side of a potential shootout.

*Darren Waller, Derek Carr, Bryan Edwards, Daniel Carlson: An example of a 4-2 Raiders underdog stack, which may not be quite as popular as 3-3 builds and 4-2 Chargers builds.

*Keenan Allen, Justin Herbert, Peyton Barber: I wouldn’t mind Mike Williams in place of Allen at CPT either, but I do believe recency bias will keep Allen’s CPT% lower than Williams’. This stack just sort of indicates perhaps the Raiders get a lead and run the ball more than expected with Barber (or Jacobs, if he plays) thereby forcing the Chargers into an even more pass-happy offense than the one they already run.

*Hunter Renfrow, Derek Carr, Justin Herbert, Mike Williams: Again, I’m not sure what the DFS salaries are going to look like for this game at this time. If Renfrow is considerably cheaper than Allen/Williams/Waller or even Ruggs, then putting him in at CPT should certainly allow you to squeeze in Carr along with a Herbert + Williams (or Allen) stack without leaving you completely devoid of salary to use for your remaining two roster slots.

That will wrap us up for the Week 4 Primetime Preview! Be sure to check out the main slate breakdown linked in the header. Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week! Be on the lookout for the newsletter covering the main slate tomorrow!

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