By: Ryan Humphries

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NFL Week 9 Primetime Preview

The NFL news cycle has been an absolute cataclysm ever since the week eight games wrapped up. I wish I could say that we have some spicy primetime games waiting on deck to give us some reprieve from all this madness going on in the league right now but… the three match-ups this week leave a lot to be desired. None of week nine’s three primetime games will feature a spread closer than 6.5 points, so some potential blowouts could be brewing. However, we’ve been pleasantly surprised plenty of times this season when it comes to games that appear uneven at first look but ultimately play much closer. Regardless, we’re here for some DFS plays and strategy, so let’s get down to it!

Note: At the time of this writing, showdown salaries are not available for the SNF & MNF games.

Due to how the rosters are constructed for single-game NFL slates, this article is more geared towards a DraftKings-specific GPP approach.

Perfect Lineups from Week 8 Primetime Games

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (-10.5) | 46.5 O/U

NYJ: 18.0 implied points | IND: 28.5 implied points

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: QB Zach Wilson (knee) - Out, WR Corey Davis (hip) - Doubtful, WR TY Hilton (concussion) - Out, RB Tevin Coleman (hamstring) - Out

Score Prediction: NYJ - 20, IND - 28

Game Notes: The Jets (2-5) have yet to win a road game in 2021 while the Colts (3-5) have only beaten the Texans at home this season. However, the Jets looked like a completely different team, at least offensively, under replacement QB Mike White in week eight against Cincinnati. White led the NFL last week with 405 passing yards and he brought a level of competence to a team that was blown out by a score of 54-13 the week prior. On the other side, the Colts have been improving themselves with a 3-2 record over their last five (after an 0-3 start) and have averaged 28.8 PPG. I expect that the Jets can stay somewhat competitive in this game, but don’t expect the Colts to be completely caught off guard by a Mike White-led offense like the Bengals were last week.

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of build preference): 4-2 Colts, 3-3 balanced, 4-2 Jets, 5-1 Colts ‘smash’ build.

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

RB Jonathan Taylor: You could make a case for Taylor as the top overall RB play in all of week nine. He’s handling an elite 74% of his team’s red zone rushing attempts to go along with 114.3 total YPG. The Jets have surrendered at least 25 DKFP to lead backs in three of the last four weeks and the game script should work in JT’s favor as Indy checks in as -10.5 point favorites at home.

QB Carson Wentz: He hasn’t been great but his fantasy numbers are on a slight upswing as of late (2.3 passing TDs/gm, 21.3 FPPG last four games) and he’s tacked on a couple rushing TDs recently as well. Jets rank 27th in pass DVOA and have allowed 23.2 FPPG across their last four.

WR Michael Pittman Jr.: Rapidly evolving into the alpha receiver in the Colts offense and is coming off of a massive 15 target week eight (resulting in a 10/86/2 stat line & 30.6 DKFP). Pittman now has a near-elite 24.8% TGT% including a 30% redzone TGT%.

QB Mike White: No one should expect a repeat performance from week eight but White is certainly passing the eye test as a much more competent NFL QB than what Zach Wilson was showing. It’s easier to pass on this Colts defense (20th pass DVOA) than it is to run against it (1st rush DVOA) and the Jets are obviously expected to play from behind this game as +10.5 point underdogs.

RB Michael Carter: 70% and 72% snap% over the last two weeks which has led to a massive 23 targets -- all of which came from Mike White! Not the best match-up here (IND - 4th fewest FPPG allowed to RBs) but the PPR upside is pretty apparent.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

WR Jamison Crowder: With Corey Davis (hip) almost certainly out tonight, Crowder will step in as the de facto WR1. With Davis also out last week, Crowder saw very solid volume (9 tgt, 8 rec, 84 yards). Crowder lines up mostly out of the slot (84% of routes) and the Colts have allowed the 15th most FPPG to slot WRs. Crowder also has a very active role in the red zone.

WR Zach Paschal: With TY Hilton and Parris Campbell constantly banged up this year, Paschal has played 88% of snaps. While he only has a moderate 16.4% TGT%, his role in the redzone with a 30% RZ TGT%.

WR Elijah Moore: Posted the best fantasy outing of his rookie campaign last week when he caught all six of his targets for 67 yards and tacked on a four yard run. That stat line was accomplished despite playing only 36% of snaps. If those snaps begin to increase, so will his targets and opportunities.

RB Ty Johnson: Johnson has been QB Mike White’s third most targeted option behind Carter (23) and Crowder (13). He has scored at least 11.4 DKFP in three straight games, including 19.6 DKFP last week. It’s hard to imagine many NFL offenses, much less the Jets, being capable of supporting two fantasy relevant RBs but Johnson will be an intriguing leverage option as most will look to target Michael Carter if they’re rostering any Jets RB.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

TE Mo Alie-Cox: He laid a goose egg last week (was still targeted four times) but had secured four TDs across the four games prior. Alie-Cox should still have a decent target projection considering the injuries to other Colts pass catchers.

Colts D/ST: Any time a team is being pinned with a <20 point implied total like the Jets tonight (18.0 implied points), the opposing defense should fall into consideration as a single game DFS play.

WR Denzel Mims: Led all Jets WRs with a 70% snap% last week while playing in the “Corey Davis role.” The Jets seem intent on using a WRBC approach while also sending a heavy amount of targets to the two aforementioned running backs, so you’re pretty much pulling the lever on the slot machine with these Jets WRs, but Mims brings some big play potential to the table.

WR Ashton Dulin: He will be expected to operate as the WR3 for the Colts while playing roughly 40-60% of snaps (41% snap% in the last four weeks, but that would be higher if Hilton didn’t play in weeks 6 & 8 -- obviously no Hilton this week). For the bare minimum $200, you’ll only need a couple of catches out of him to see returned value.

K Michael Badgley: Despite the Colts scoring 30+ points in three straight, Badgley has only attempted one FGA in each of those games. Indy is projected to push for 30+ points once again and Badgley may be due for some positive FGA regression if such a thing exists. This game is indoors so no wind/weather issues to worry about.

Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection

*Jonathan Taylor, Mike White, Jamison Crowder: The expected game script here leads us to assume Taylor will be heavily featured (no surprise there) and he’s very likely to come away as the game’s top fantasy scorer. Putting him in at captain and running it back with a Mike White + pass catcher stack makes a ton of sense.

*Carson Wentz, Michael Pittman Jr., Ashton Dulin: Unless a QB offers significant rushing upside, you’ll usually want at least two of their pass catchers stacked alongside them when rolling the QB out at CPT. Pittman is the easy pick and I can’t imagine *not* stacking him with Wentz. Dulin is obviously more of a lotto ticket but at $200 on DK, you’ll have an average of $7,800 remaining per player with this specific Wentz double stack.

*Michael Pittman Jr., Carson Wentz, Michael Carter: Pittman has a great shot at being this game’s top fantasy scorer as well, especially if he garners another double-digit target share à la week eight (15 targets!). Wentz is not likely to throw 51 times like he did last week… but ya still have to love CPT Pittman tonight.

*Mike White, Michael Carter, Elijah Moore: The Jets could continue to see exactly what they have in White and allow him to sling it another 40+ times. While a large percentage of his throws are likely going to be of the short aDOT variety, many of which will go to the RBs, he’ll have a chance at cracking 300+ yards and earning that all-important yardage bonus on DK. Carter (or Ty Johnson) should be considered viable “pass catchers” to use in White double stacks.

Colts 5-1 Stacks: I believe we have to temper expectations on this Jets offense a bit and we can’t get too caught up in their week eight upset over the Bengals. The Colts should be a bit more prepared against Mike White now that they now have nearly two full games worth of film on him. This could easily turn out to be a very lopsided Colts victory and a large percentage of the field won’t be thinking about using 5-1 Colts builds in single game contests so there’s leverage to be had here.

Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Rams (-8) | 53.5 O/U

TEN: 22.8 implied points | LAR: 30.8 implied points

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: RB Derrick Henry (foot) - Out/IR, QB Matthew Stafford (undisclosed) - Questionable, WR Robert Woods (foot) - Questionable, WR Julio Jones (hamstring) - Questionable, RB Darrynton Evans (knee) - Out/IR

Score Prediction: TEN - 23, LAR - 34

Game Notes: King Henry has fallen and with that, the fantasy world weeps. Henry’s absence will change the entire complexion of this game. While Tennessee did sign Adrian Peterson on Tuesday, unless they can turn back the sands of time by about nine years, they’re not going to get anywhere near the production out of him that Henry could provide. So, look for the Titans to go more pass-heavy this week. It won’t be easy sledding, especially after the Rams acquired OLB Von Miller from Denver earlier this week. The Rams have been looking like legitimate Super Bowl contenders all season but they haven’t really been tested since their week four loss to Arizona. Since then, they’ve played against the Seahawks, Giants, Lions, and Texans… not exactly tough sledding there. Even without Henry in the fold, the Titans are a capable enough team to give the Rams a run for their money on Sunday Night Football. This is easily the primetime match-up to watch this week simply due to the wide range of outcomes. While anything can happen in this one, I do see the Rams winning pretty comfortably in this game, which features this highest total of the week.

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of build preference): 4-2 Rams, 3-3 balanced, 4-2 Titans, 5-1 Rams ‘smash’ build

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

WR Cooper Kupp: What a fantasy monster. Kupp has averaged 11.3 tgt/gm this season with a 32.8% TGT%, 115.5 YPG, and 10 TDs. He has arguably the most dominant red zone role of any NFL receiver with a 35.1% RZ TGT% and nine RZ TDs. The Titans have given up *the* most FPPG to WRs this season… so… it’s clearly another smash spot for Kupp.

QB Matthew Stafford: I’m writing this on Thursday morning so injury news for this game is very limited right now. But I’d be shocked if whatever ailment Stafford is dealing with keeps him on the sideline on Sunday night. I’m expecting him to be a full go in this one and it’s another great spot for Stafford and the passing game. Stafford has averaged 319.5 YPG in four home games this season with a 12:1 TD:INT ratio (27.6 FPPG).

WR AJ Brown: If Julio (hamstring) sits, Brown would likely be in line for a huge target share. The Titans are already pretty much guaranteed to lean on a more pass-heavy approach without Derrick Henry and Brown has been looking more like an alpha receiver the last couple games catching 18-of-20 targets for 288 yards and two TDs. Despite having Jalen Ramsey, the Rams aren’t really utilizing him as a shadow corner this season and, overall, LAR is allowing the 14th most FPPG to WRs this season… so not bad but not great either.

QB Ryan Tannehill: The Titans will be leaning much more on the arm of Tannehill moving forward. Let’s not forget how solid he was last season. A 300+ yard day through the air with a couple of TDs is certainly possible here and Tannehill also provides solid mobility (20.6 rushing YPG). Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey, and the newly acquired Von Miller could certainly cause him problems, however.

RB Darrell Henderson Jr.: His 77.4% RB touch% is at an elite level and, outside of blowout/injury scenarios, he’s rarely coming off of the field. He’s still searching for his first 100+ yard game on the ground but he’s a safe bet to see 15 to 20+ touches and likely find his way into the endzone a time or two.

FLEX Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

WR Robert Woods: He’s trying to break the narrative that this is a three-man Rams offensive operation between Stafford-Kupp-Henderson. While he only caught 3-of-9 targets last week, two went for TDs. Woods has averaged 8.5 tgt/gm over the last four weeks and while his floor+ceiling is not in the same realm as Kupp’s, he’s still proving to be a worthy fantasy target.

RB Jeremy McNichols: Adrian Peterson’s first week on the team likely won’t lead to him seeing a full complement of rushing attempts. McNichols is more of a threat on obvious passing downs, but that may be a common situation the Titans find themselves in on Sunday night. I would predict McNichols to push for around a 50% snap% and see a fair share of targets. He’s only run the ball seven times this season but has averaged 5.4 YPC on those limited touches.

WR Julio Jones: Assuming he plays, there’s nothing exciting about rostering Julio during what is easily his most disappointing fantasy season to date, up to this point. But, once again, we’re going to expect Tennessee to lean on the passing game much more without Henry, so Julio should clearly benefit from that change. Most will avoid Julio in this game, so view him as a leverage option here.

WR Van Jefferson Jr.: The Rams let go of Desean Jackson earlier this week and while he didn’t have a major role within the Rams offense (5.5% TGT%), that still leaves a 22.6% snap% open. Jefferson was already on the field for the majority of plays (74.2% snap%) and had a decent 14.2% TGT% but his role as the WR3 on this team is even more solidified moving forward.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

TE Tyler Higbee: He only has a 13.1% TGT% this year but he’s making the most of his opportunities with an 83.3% catch%. Once the Rams get into the red zone, Higbee’s role predictably increases as his 11 RZ targets this season has translated to a respectable 19.3% RZ TGT%. He’ll be a bit “TD or bust” but the Rams should be able to move up and down the field plenty on Sunday night.

Rams D/ST: This defensive unit is beefed up with Von Miller now in the mix. While Miller likely won’t play a full compliment of snaps in his first game as a Ram, he’s certainly a difference maker. Now that the Titans have lost their best player and top offensive weapon, the Rams D/ST is firmly on the radar as a cheap salary relief FLEX play.

WR Ben Skowronek: The rookie Skowronek is probably the largest beneficiary of the DJax exit. He played 30% of snaps last week and caught all three of his targets for 30 yards. With Tutu Atwell landing on the IR, Skowronek is locked in as the Rams WR4 for the time being. And, while that may not be much of a fantasy-viable role, Skowronek could hold some value as a single game DFS dart throw (assuming he’s dirt cheap once salaries get released for this game).

RB Adrian Peterson: Not the best match-up for the 36-year-old veteran to step into in his first week as a Titan… but there’s always the chance he could see 12-15 carries and muster out 50-70 yards while falling into the endzone. Note: AP is not in the player pool for the Thurs-Mon slate, but I’m assuming he’ll be added in on the SNF showdown slate since those salaries are released much later in the week.

K Matt Gay & Randy Bullock: In a game that carries the highest total of the week in the NFL, both kickers should offer solid median projections with some nice salary relief as well. Gay has scored at least 8 FP in every game this season and Bullock has scored at least 11 FP in four of his last five. 

Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*Cooper Kupp, Matthew Stafford, Julio Jones: Kupp will be the safest CPT selection on the board but likely the most popular. Stafford is an easy candidate to run a sort of ‘reverse’ WR-QB stack and will also be highly owned, so wrapping this stack concept up with Julio Jones as a leverage play feels like a logical move from a GPP standpoint.

*Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Van Jefferson Jr.: Just your run-of-the-mill CPT Stafford double stack. The Rams passing offense should continue to flourish at home here.

*AJ Brown, Ryan Tannehill, Randy Bullock: Possibly gaining exposure to all Titans offensive point production with this stack.

*Ryan Tannehill, AJ Brown, Jeremy McNichols: I’m viewing McNichols as more of a WR than an RB in this game, so he should be worthy of consideration in Tannehill double stacks.

*Darrel Henderson Jr., Adrian Peterson, Cooper Kupp: If the under hits, both of these RBs will have probably handled a lot of work on the ground (more so Henderson). Most people are going to be expecting a high-scoring game here so I don’t mind going against the grain and predicting a more slow-moving “ground and pound” approach. Meanwhile, Kupp makes it in as a FLEX play because he’ll see his targets regardless of game script or score.

Chicago Bears at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5) | 40 O/U

CHI: 16.8 implied points | PIT: 23.3 implied points

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: RB David Montgomery (knee) - IR-R (could return this week), RB Damien Williams (knee) - Questionable, TE Eric Ebron (hamstring) - Questionable, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (shoulder) - Out/IR

Score Prediction: CHI - 20, PIT - 24

Game Notes: A notable piece of news came down the wire as I was writing this. The Bears have officially opened up the window for return for David Montgomery and he will practice today (Thursday). If he does in fact play on MNF, HC Matt Nagy has expressed intent to utilize him as the primary ball carrier while also giving Khalil Herbert some work as well -- a fair approach considering how impressive Herbert has looked in Montgomery’s absence. Rookie QB Justin Fields had his most promising performance of the season last week when he completed 70.4% of his passes while also running for 100+ yards and a TD. He still has a long way to go, but we at least got a solid glimpse of what he brings to the table, specifically when it comes to fantasy outcomes. But of course, it is the Steelers who check in as the home favorites in this game. They’re currently riding a three-game win streak while holding opponents to 16.3 PPG in that span. Big Ben is still looking like every bit of a 39-year-old QB but a strong set of youthful weapons around him (Najee, Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, Freiermuth) certainly makes his job as more of a “game manager” these days much easier. I’d expect this to be the most closely contested primetime match-up of the week, but certainly don’t expect a barn burner.

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of build preference): 4-2 Steelers, 4-2 Bears, 3-3 balanced (not really entertaining 5-1 ‘smash’ builds in this game for either side)

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

RB Najee Harris: The rookie’s league-leading 86.4% snap% is only even remotely challenged by Alvin Kamara (82.8% snap%). Other than that, no other NFL RB has higher than a 73% snap% on the season. This has led to Harris handling a monstrous 91.2% of his team’s RB touches which also leads the league quite easily. By RB standards, Harris is also highly involved in the passing game with an 18.3% TGT% as well as an absurd 31.3% RZ TGT%. The Bears may seem like a fairly stingy match-up, however they check in at 24th in run DVOA.

WR Diontae Johnson: He has seen exactly 13 targets in three of the Steelers last four games and will face off with a Bears secondary that has given up the 5th most FPPG to WRs.

QB Justin Fields: The dual threat ability puts him well within captain consideration… but you do have to wonder how much David Montgomery’s potential return could negate some of his rushing upside.

QB: Ben Roethlisberger: Big Ben hasn’t scored more than 18.22 DKFP in a game this season, so he’s a fringe captain option at best. He also only has only a single game with more than one touchdown, so he is likely due for some positive TD regression.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

RB David Montgomery OR Khalil Herbert: If Monty sits for one more game (Bears have a week 10 bye) then Herbert will likely draw some fringe captain consideration. But if he suits up on MNF, Montgomery should be fully expected to lead the backfield in carries… though perhaps in more of a 60/40 type split (while also ceding rushing work to Fields). Either way, this is a tough match-up but volume alone with touchdown upside would make either guy a FLEX worthy play.

WR Chase Claypool: He’s not seeing the same volume of targets as Johnson and Claypool is also only turning his 7.8 tgt/gm into 4.3 rec/gm (55.3% catch%). He still brings some big play upside to the table and has averaged 16.5 YPR and 78.3 YPG in home games this season.

WR Darnell Mooney: The second-year WR is seemingly Justin Fields’ preferred target over Allen Robinson II (who I’m surprised Chicago didn’t trade prior to the deadline this week). Since week four, Mooney has commanded a 27.6% TGT% from Fields including a season-high nine targets last week. 

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

WR Allen Robinson II: I honestly don’t want much to do with ARob this season given his 7.4 DKFP/gm average. But, everyone else will share a similar sentiment so he does need to be on the leverage play radar. Robinson has still garnered a solid 21.5% TGT% this season but it has translated to only 6.2 yards per target. Some of the lack of production is his fault, much of it isn’t.

TE Pat Freiermuth: This is a better play if Eric Ebron (hamstring) sits again for a second consecutive week but Freiermuth is emerging as the preferred receiving TE, so he’s in play regardless. He’s commanded seven targets in each of the Steelers last two games while playing 60% of snaps in week six (when Ebron also played 45% of snaps) and 78% of snaps in week eight (no Ebron). The Bears are tough against TEs, but Freiermuth will have some touchdown potential in this game.

Steelers D/ST: Opposing D/STs are averaging 9.3 FPPG against the Bears over their last four games.

TE Cole Kmet: Playing 83.2% of offensive snaps this season and has a notable 17.6% TGT% with at least five targets in the last three weeks.

WR Marquise Goodwin: Played 53% of snaps in week seven and 43% of snaps in week eight and saw seven total targets. There aren’t a ton of great complete fliers to consider in this game that carries a lowly 40 point total, but Goodwin may be worth a sprinkle in some GPP builds.

Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*Najee Harris, Steelers D/ST, Darnell Mooney: The Harris + Steelers D/ST stack could have some positive correlation in this likely low-scoring, slow-paced game. In a game where the Bears could be playing from behind, Mooney makes sense as the bring back option here.

*Diontae Johnson, Ben Roethlisberger, David Montgomery (or Herbert if DM is inactive): Johnson is a heavy favorite to lead the Steelers in targets once again so he should provide a strong fantasy floor via volume in a game that may not see many touchdowns.

*Ben Roethlisberger + Two Steelers Pass Catchers: Maybe Big Ben finally cracks the 20 FP threshold this week. If he does and happens to come away as the optimal captain, he likely brings two of his pass catchers along with him as optimal FLEX plays. Najee Harris (7.0 tgt/gm) can certainly be grouped in with the WRs and TE as a viable pass catching stack pieces with Roethlisberger at CPT.

*Justin Fields, Darnell Mooney, Chase Claypool: Fields hasn’t passed for more than 209 yards in a game yet this season and obviously a lot of his value comes from his rushing upside, so you don’t necessarily *have* to double stack two (or more) Bears receivers with him if rolling him out at captain.

*David Montgomery (or Herbert if DM is inactive), Najee Harris, Pat Freiermuth: This is what I’d call a “slog stack” as this pairs two RBs with a low aDOT redzone pass catcher like Freiermuth. If this game ends with a score of, say, 17-13 a stack like this one is certainly viable.

That will wrap us up for the Week 9 Primetime Preview! Be sure to check out the main slate breakdown linked in the header. Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week! Be on the lookout for the newsletter covering the main slate tomorrow!

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