By: Ryan Humphries

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Due to single-game format discrepancies between DraftKings and FanDuel, this article is more geared towards a DraftKings-focused GPP approach.

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) | 50 O/U

ARI: 23.3 implied points | LAR: 26.8 implied points

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: RB James Conner (Questionable), RB Darrel Henderson Jr. (IR/Out), WR Van Jefferson Jr. (Questionable), WR Rondale Moore (Questionable), WR DeAndre Hopkins (IR/Out)

Score Prediction: ARI - 30, LAR - 27

Game Preview: An entertaining Wild Card Weekend extends out to Monday night and will feature a rubber match between the Cardinals and Rams. These two NFC West divisional foes split their two meetings in the regular season with the road team coming away as the victor on both occasions. The two high-profile QBs in this game, Kyler Murray (third season) and Matthew Stafford (13th season), are both looking to hit a career milestone as they try to notch their first NFL playoff win. The Cardinals will come into SoFi Stadium as the healthier team tonight (see SIC Score field view from profootballdoc.com). The Rams are dealing with some injuries to several key starters and most recently they lost both of their starting safeties -- Jordan Fuller, the team’s leading tackler, will miss the entire postseason due to an ankle injury sustained last week while Taylor Rapp will miss at least tonight's game due to a concussion. In response to those injuries, the Rams dug 37-year-old Eric Waddle out of retirement to fill their void left at the safety position.

In general, this is a tough game to predict because you simply don’t know which version of these teams will show up. After a red hot start to the season, the Cardinals dropped four of their last five games which featured a blowout loss to the Lions, and, with a chance to win the division, they gave up 38 points in their week 18 loss to a subpar 7-10 Seahawks team. However, they also went on the road and beat another playoff team, the Cowboys, in week 17. Then you have the Rams who went on to lose in overtime after blowing a 17-0 lead against the 49ers last week (when winning the division was not a certainty since Arizona was playing at the same time). The Rams have beat up on plenty of bad/mediocre teams this season but they went 2-5 against teams who made it to the playoffs. And now they have those additional injuries on defense to contend with.

So now we’ll just have to wait and see who wants it more. While my confidence is not high at all in the pick, I’m calling for the Cardinals to channel their energy from week four (when they beat the Rams in LA by a score of 37-20) and pull off the upset once again on the Rams home field. Realistically, this feels like one of those games where the winner will be whoever has the ball last. It should be a fun one!

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 ARI, 4-2 LAR

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains and Core Flex Plays:

WR Cooper Kupp: Captain Kupp is going to run you an absolute premium price of $19,500 and leave you with an average of $6,100 left to fill out your remaining FLEX positions. But anyone who has paid even a sliver of attention to the NFL this season is aware that Kupp’s exorbitant salary is 100% justified. The guy is just allergic to having a bad game and he finds ways to get open even when defenses scheme to specifically stop him from doing so. Kupp led the NFL with a 33.2% target% and 11.2 targets/gm this season. His worst game of the season actually came against the Cardinals back in week four when he caught only 5-of-13 targets for 64 yards. However, he exploded for 13-123-1 in the Week 14 rematch. Aside from week four, Kupp has at least 92 receiving yards in every other game and he’s a lethal weapon in the redzone as well (33.3% redzone target%, 13 redzone TDs).

QB Kyler Murray: He’ll need to make use of his rushing ability to come away as the optimal captain play, something he hadn’t really been doing towards the first half of the season. However, Murray has utilized his rushing ability more consistently down the final stretch of the season as he has averaged 46.0 rushing YPG in his last six starts (including 61 yards against the Rams in week 14). Murray has also passed for a combined 651 yards against the Rams this season and now they’re going to be vulnerable on the back end of their secondary with both starting safeties sidelined.

RB Chase Edmonds: James Conner is currently looking like a game-time decision as he deals with a rib injury that he suffered in week 18. If Conner is active, Edmonds is obviously a bit riskier, especially as a captain candidate. But if Conner is ruled out, there’s an excellent upside to be had from Edmonds at his $5,000 price tag ($7,500 CPTN). Edmonds can make things happen when given opportunities. He has averaged 5.1 YPC this season and is an excellent pass catcher out of the backfield as well. In his last two games, Edmonds brought in 13-of-15 targets for 100 yards. The match-up may not be great on paper but Edmonds did put up 139 total yards on just 16 touches against the Rams earlier this season.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options:

WR Odell Beckham Jr.: OBJ has connected with Stafford for a touchdown in five of the last seven games. The Cardinals have been allowing a ton of production to opposing WRs recently, surrendering the 2nd most FPPG to the position over their last four games. They have been having the most trouble on the perimeter, which is where OBJ runs 80% of his routes.

RB Sony Michel: The return of Cam Akers is going to eat into Michel’s workload to an extent, but instead of Michel handling the 80-90% snap rate that he has been seeing ever since Darrel Henderson Jr. went on the IR, that may drop down to around a 70-75% snap rate, which is still well within “featured back” territory. Michel has handled at least 20 touches in six straight games and considering the Rams won five of those performances, I’d be surprised if they all of a sudden went away from him in their most important game of the season.

TE Zach Ertz: While it hasn’t resulted in any massive performances due to a lack of touchdowns, Ertz has been Kyler Murray’s favorite target as of late. He’s averaging 10.8 targets/gm over the last four games which equates to a team-leading 26.5% target% in that span. The uptick in targets coincides directly with WR DeAndre Hopkins being placed on IR back in week 14. Ertz should provide a strong floor due the target volume he has been receiving and if some positive touchdown regression hits, he may enter into optimal captain territory.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers:

WR Antoine Wesley: In the four games since Hopkins went to the IR, Wesley has seen plenty of time on the field and has logged a notable 73% snap rate in that span. That has led to 5.3 targets/gm and three touchdowns across those four games. Wesley is a clear value target at only $1,800 on DraftKings.

K Matt Prater & K Matt Gay: Domed stadium with a high total and both kickers have been hitting double digit fantasy points regularly in recent weeks. Both guys are pretty easy plug-and-plays as FLEX options given their low salaries and strong median projections, though I usually advise against playing both kickers in the same lineup… it’s just usually not the optimal route to take.

RB Cam Akers: He’s not exactly ‘cheap cheap’ at $6,600 and he may not even receive 10 touches. But Akers was expected to be the primary running back for the Rams before he tore his Achilles in the preseason and Sean McVay could certainly choose to give him more run if Sony Michel struggles. Akers was able to knock a little rust off in the regular season finale when he played 20% of snaps, handled five carries, and caught all three of his targets, though it only amounted to 13 combined yards. Expect much more efficiency on his touches in this game and Akers could always find his way into redzone packages and come up with a touchdown as well.

Stack Concepts:

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*Cooper Kupp, Matthew Stafford, Antoine Wesley: Kupp’s floor is basically seven catches for 90 yards and a touchdown. His upside is pretty much double that. Rolling him out at CPTN will leave you searching the bargain bin for a couple of FLEX plays, but it’s still pretty doable even if you stack Stafford with him.

*Kyler Murray + Two Cardinals Pass Catchers: Usually, when it comes to mobile QBs at the CPTN position, I don’t believe it’s a necessity to run a double stack along with him. But, in what could be a back-and-forth shootout, Murray may throw it 35+ times while also doing his fair share of damage on the ground. Between Ertz, Kirk, AJ Green, Wesley, and even Edmonds out of the backfield, you have a solid set of receiving options to choose from when constructing Murray double stacks.

*Chase Edmonds, Cooper Kupp, Matt Prater: At the time of this writing, it isn’t clear whether or not James Conner is going to suit up. My feeling is that he’ll be active but Edmonds may be relied upon as the primary back, especially if the Cardinals fall behind on the scoreboard and are forced into more passing situations. Due to his big-play ability and the odds of finding the endzone in a (potentially) more featured role, Edmonds makes for one of the more intriguing cheap CPTN options in this game.

*Odell Beckham Jr., Matthew Stafford, Christian Kirk: With so much attention going towards Kupp, OBJ has the opportunity at a 20+ DKFP kinda day against a reeling Cardinals secondary.

*Zach Ertz, Kyler Murray, Sony Michel: The positive TD regression is going to hit if Ertz continues to operate as the Cardinals top receiving option which ends in him seeing 10+ targets. People may simply look at his recent fantasy point totals and deem him unworthy of the CPTN position but his raw receiving volume has been great so if he lucks his way to a TD or two, Ertz has plenty of potential to end the night as the optimal CPTN play (likely at sub-10% CPTN ownership).

That will wrap us up with the Monday Night Football Preview! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck tonight!

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