By: Greg Landry | LineStar Chat: @glandry | Twitter: @GP_Landry

Welcome to NFL Takeaways! An important, and often overlooked, foundation of any DFS process is taking a look back at the previous slate and honestly assessing how we did. What did we get right? What did we get wrong? How can I learn from this and improve next week? This will be a weekly newsletter series with that focus in mind.

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I apologize for not getting this article out last week. An unexpected business trip came up at the last minute and just completely destroyed my schedule preventing me from getting this done.

This season keeps getting stranger and stranger. Week seven was no exception to that rule. Perhaps the biggest mystery of the week was David Johnson, who we learned AFTER the game, was “active” but would play on a “need-based” situation. Coach Kingsbury obviously had concerns about his injury but Johnson was healthy enough to play in an emergency so the Cardinals chose to keep that first part to themselves in a likely effort to throw off the opposing defense who spent the week preparing for Johnson. Smart, on the part of Coach Kingsbury (I never understand why coaches say things to the media that could tip their hand to the opponent) but sucks, obviously, for anyone who played DJ. Like it or not, that’s fantasy football. As much as we like to think we are privy to all the information available on game day (the industry certainly has come a long way in that regard) there will always be things we don’t know about and that’s part of the risk when you enter contests each week. Let’s take a look at the top fantasy producers at each position via the live scoring tool on LineStar:

What Did We Learn?

Here we'll focus on a few players at each position who stood out (both good and bad) and identify if there's any actionable information we can use when building our rosters going forward.

Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers, GB: 25/31, 429 yards, 5 TD, 1 rush, 6 yards, 1 TD

Granted, it was against Oakland, who came into the week ranked 26th in pass defense DVOA but still this was an encouraging performance from Rodgers and the Green Bay offense as a whole. Playing without Davante Adams for the third straight week, Rodgers threw for five touchdowns in a game for the fifth time in his career. He got everyone involved with his touchdown passes spread out to Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jake Kumerow, and even Jimmy Graham. Slowly but surely, it appears Matt LaFleur and Rodgers are getting on the same page. This should lead to more big performances down the stretch (perhaps not this big) especially once Davante Adams returns to the lineup (which could be as early as week eight). Up next, on the road at Arrowhead Stadium. It’s not the easiest place to play, and the Chiefs are quietly ranked 11th in pass defense DVOA so far this season. But assuming Adams comes back, Rodgers will definitely be in the GPP discussion for that one.

Matt Stafford, DET: 30/45, 364 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT

Despite their less than exciting record right now, the Lions were a “game that was given to Green Bay by the refs” and a late Patrick Mahomes touchdown drive away from having no losses coming into this match up. While they ultimately lost again this past week, bringing their record to 2-3-1, they have shown a lot of positive signs of taking steps in the right direction and this offense is definitely one that needs to be on our radar most weeks. In a game many expected to be an ugly defensive battle (opened with a 43.5 total) Detroit lost Darius Slay early to his hamstring injury and had difficulty slowing down the Vikings offense. Couple that with the loss of Kerryon Johnson and Stafford was forced into heavy passing attempts where he didn’t disappoint, throwing for nearly 400 yards and 4 touchdowns. In the process, Stafford became the fastest quarterback to ever reach 40,000 passing yards (even despite a couple of wasted seasons under the previous coaching staff). This was his third three touchdown performance of the season after having just one all of last year, further illustrating how much this offense has improved. The Lions get the Giants secondary in week eight who ranked 28th in pass defense DVOA coming into their game this week. If Kerryon misses that game, expect the Lions to lean on the pass a little more in a very winnable match up, putting Stafford firmly on our radar.

Russell Wilson, SEA: 20/41, 241 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT

Just throw out the game film on this one. That’s honestly my advice. On a week where so much else went wrong across the fantasy football landscape, why not toss in MVP candidate Russell Wilson having a bad day as well? He threw his first interception of the season and had just a 49% completion rate with 5.9 YPA after not having any games below 64% completion or 8.1 YPA coming into this game. The weather didn’t help, as there was a steady rain throughout the day (Lamar Jackson did most of his damage on the ground only throwing for 143 yards but rushing for another 116) so that can be partially to blame. Seattle also settled for three short field goals which could be a sign of them having not yet figured out how to cope with the loss of Will Dissly who had become a serious red zone threat this season. Again, don’t read into this at all. Wilson will bounce back. In fact, he will bounce back in a big way this week when the Seahawks take on Atlanta. The Falcons seem to be the medicine that cures all passing game issues – just ask Jared Goff.

One other quick thought here. With the addition of Marcus Peters and a potentially healthy Jimmy Smith returning after the Ravens week eight bye, this may very well become a secondary to avoid again for the remainder of the season. They had looked attackable early on with Marlon Humphrey taking away the top weapon but the opposing offense being able to move the ball everywhere else. Peters and Smith will likely take that ability away.

Running Backs

Chase Edmonds, AZ: 27 carries, 126 yards, 3 TD, 2 receptions, 24 yards

This was painful for many. David Johnson was active for this game but since I wrote the introduction, more details have come out. Apparently, David simply “didn’t feel right” after the first carry and the Cardinals wisely decided not to push him. After all, as displayed in this game, they have arguably the best back up running back in football with Edmonds. Pretty good problem to have when you can seamlessly switch back and forth between the starter and back up and not lose any production at all. Edmonds was outstanding both on the ground and through the air as a pass catcher. Regardless of Johnson’s health, it’s hard to imagine the Cardinals not giving Edmonds a larger role going forward, which could put him on the flex radar most weeks even when Johnson plays. If Johnson is out, Edmonds climbs into consideration in all formats.

Royce Freeman, DEN: 10 carries, 35 yards, 1 TD, 4 receptions, 32 yards

I wanted to highlight Freeman because NOBODY is talking about him each and every week. Yet, he’s in a 50/50 timeshare on a team that would prefer to keep the ball on the ground, play good defense, and hide their quarterback (who was sacked NINE times this week). Freeman isn’t going to blow the doors off a slate but he’s seen five or more targets in five of seven games this season and double-digit carries in six of seven games. He finally found the end zone this week which just adds to his already solid floor. For a guy that is consistently priced in the mid $4K range if you’re looking for a cheap punt option, particularly in cash game formats, you could do worse than Freeman if he helps you make the rest of your lineup fit. The ceiling is too low for GPP unless he starts finding the end zone more consistently. He should be on your radar at the very least.

Joe Mixon, CIN: 10 carries, 2 yards, 1 TD, 1 reception 2 yards

Yup. I try really hard not to overreact to early season issues, as it often takes teams and players a little time to sort things out. I gave Mixon a longer leash this season because of the added variable of a new coaching staff. But this is past the point of panic. We are now through seven weeks in the season and Mixon has yet to crack 100 yards on the ground and has three games with 10 yards or less. This particular game was officially rock bottom, gaining only two yards on 10 carries behind this pathetic offensive line of the Bengals. He managed to somewhat salvage his day by finding the end zone but scoring opportunities will be few and far between on this offense. The days of hoping to buy low on Mixon in GPP formats are gone. He’s not even worth a “hope and pray” roster spot at this point.

Wide Receivers

Marvin Jones, DET: 10 receptions, 93 yards, 4 TDs

After back to back performances of three catches or less, Jones bounced-back in a big way this week, catching 10 of 13 targets and a whopping four touchdowns. According to Rotoworld, he became just the third wide receiver (Jerry Rice and Sterling Sharpe) to score four touchdowns two separate times. As we talked about with Stafford earlier, passing in the red zone may be a larger part of the Detroit offense in the foreseeable future with Kerryon Johnson expected to miss multiple weeks. Jones won’t catch four touchdowns every week, obviously, but he’s clearly someone they look to as a red zone target.

Corey Davis, TEN: 6 receptions, 80 yards, 1 TD

Could Davis have finally found a somewhat productive quarterback to help him get going? It’s still a bit early to draw that conclusion but since Tannehill has taken over under center, Davis has been like night and day. Last week he was completely uninvolved in the first half, receiving just one target. After Tannehill came in in the second half he caught three of four targets for 36 yards. Not much, I know, but progress. This week, Tannehill looked his way often. And even more encouraging, the pair was efficient, with Davis catching six of seven targets for 80 yards and a score. I’d like to see another game or two before I’m ready to confidently say we can look at Davis as an option. But he does get an excellent match up this week against the Tampa Bay pass funnel defense who ranks 25th in pass defense DVOA and 1st in rush defense DVOA. Assuming the Titans are unable to get Derrick Henry going in that game, look for Davis to have a shot at breaking out. I will absolutely have him on my GPP radar.

Cooper Kupp, LAR: 6 receptions, 50 yards

This was a big disappointment coming off a miserable performance against a difficult 49ers defense who managed to hold Kupp to just 17 yards. Widely considered a top three receiver this week against the leaky Atlanta secondary, Kupp managed just 50 scoreless yards in this one. It was even more disappointing since Goff had a nice recovery this week, going 22/37 for 268 yards and 2 TD. Unfortunately, Goff spread the ball around pretty heavily in this one with Kupp seeing eight targets, Woods seeing seven, and Cooks also seeing seven. The touchdowns went to Gurley and Everett. Two observations here. First, don’t panic about Kupp. It’s a couple of bad games. He’s still on a high octane offense with a good coaching staff and is consistently near the top in targets. With that said, the Rams are making a lot of effort to get their tight ends involved this season after they were practically invisible last year. Everett had 10 targets in this one for the second time in three games. The Rams get the Bengals next who rank 30th in pass defense DVOA. Even with a little more uncertainty in this passing attack you can still fire up Kupp in all formats.

Tight Ends

Darren Waller, OAK: 7 receptions, 126 yards 2 TD

Waller signed a well-deserved contract extension this week through 2023 to remain in Oakland and he rewarded their decision with another excellent performance. He had double the fantasy points (DraftKings scoring) as the next closest tight end this week (Eric Ebron). More importantly, he found the end zone twice in this game. Amazingly, these were his first two scores of the season despite all the production he’s had up to this point. Waller has now caught six passes in five of six games and this was the second time this season he went over 120 yards. With Dallas Goedert starting to take away some usage from Zach Ertz, Danny “Dimes” turning back into Daniel Jones and having a negative impact on Evan Engram, and Travis Kelce catching passes from Matt Moore for the next few weeks, Waller legitimately looks like the top overall tight end in football for the time being.

Dallas Goedert, PHI: 4 catches, 69 yards, 1 TD

We knew the Dallas defense filtered targets to the tight end but most of us were likely hoping that tight end would be Zach Ertz. Instead, Ertz had just two catches for 38 yards and it was Goedart who led this group in both catches and yards while also finding the end zone. So, what does this mean? Well, this is now the second consecutive week where he and Ertz have essentially split targets 50/50. Last week, Ertz had nine targets and Goedert had eight. This week, Ertz had five targets and Goedert had four. The Eagles were already a spread the ball around type of offense which often makes it difficult to single out a skill position player to have a productive fantasy day. If Goedert is now going to be regularly introduced into this mix going forward, it will make those waters even muddier. It’s going to be very tough to trust Ertz in DFS assuming this usage keeps up. You’re better off targeting Goedert with the similar usage and significantly cheaper price tag.

For the record, don't be surprised if Zach Ertz gets traded to Seattle. They are a contender who needs a tight end after Dissly went down. The Eagles are clearly testing to see what they have in Goedert over the past few weeks. Now that they've dropped to 3-4 on the season, it would make sense for them to move Ertz before the deadline and focus on Goedert. If that happens then both of these guys become top options at tight end.

Hunter Henry, LAC: 6 catches, 97 yards

Henry couldn’t be coming back at a better time. With the tight end position already extremely shallow and now several aforementioned players struggling or part of offenses which are struggling, Henry instantly inserts himself back into the top five tight end conversation on a weekly basis after two strong performances in his return from injury. Henry has been on the breakout list each season but has never been able to stay on the field. He’s incredible when he does play and if he can finally stay healthy (knock on wood) he could be a big boost to a Chargers team that is desperate for a spark right now. Even in a tough match up against Chicago this upcoming weekend, Henry will be in the conversation for all formats.

Millionaire Maker In Review

In this section we'll take a look at the winning "milly maker" lineup with a focus on players selected, ownership, and roster construction. I'll switch back and forth between DraftKings and FanDuel.

Let’s take a look at the winner of the Sunday Million contest on FanDuel this week. Congratulations to user emitnulb for taking down the big prize. Here’s the lineup:

They built around the Raiders and Packers game turning into a shootout by focusing heavily on the Packers players who we expected to see an increase in usage with multiple players missing (Rodgers, Jones, MVS) and then running it back with Darren Waller who continues to be the most consistent player on the Raiders as well as arguably the most consistent tight end in the NFL. The Packers players were brilliant plays on Sunday. It was a dream match up against a weak Oakland defense but with so much uncertainty leading up to kickoff around the availability of certain Green Bay players, most of the industry just avoided this situation all together. This allowed the user to get Rodgers (2.9% ownership), Jones (5.4% ownership), and MVS (1.7% ownership) basically all by themselves.

Around that four man stack, they went chalk with Dalvin Cook and why wouldn’t you? It was a great spot for a premier running back on a week without CMC or Zeke on the main slate. Hopkins has struggled the past couple of weeks but it certainly wasn’t due to lack of talent or opportunities, making him a prime candidate to bounce-back and that is exactly what he did. I didn’t have Marvin Jones on my radar at all and was surprised to see him get 13 targets compared to just two for Golladay. I don’t have a great explanation for this to be honest. Jones was even more involved after the Lions abandoned the run with the Kerryon Johnson injury and the Vikings offense firing on all cylinders. Call this a little bit of luck but it certainly worked out. After watching James Connor carve up the Chargers run defense last weekend even though the Chargers knew the Steelers would go run heavy with their third string quarterback starting the game, it was hard not to see the potential opportunity with Henry. Finally, perhaps my favorite point here, the winning Sunday Million lineup had a defense that only scored two points.

You don’t need to get every single position perfect in order to take down a big prize. This lineup is proof. Well done!

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