By: Greg Landry | LineStar Chat: @glandry | Twitter: @GP_Landry

Welcome to NFL Takeaways! An important, and often overlooked, foundation of any DFS process is taking a look back at the previous slate and honestly assessing how we did. What did we get right? What did we get wrong? How can I learn from this and improve next week? This will be a weekly newsletter series with that focus in mind.

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Not sure how you all felt, but truthfully I never really had a good "feel" for this weekend. Of the 11 games on the main slate, 13 of the 22 quarterbacks were either backups or starters who really should be backups. Then we had Brady and Prescott facing off against each other with tough defenses on both sides and some horrible weather. Carson Wentz was playing with almost his entire receiving corps injured and missing the game. Jameis Winston can't get out of his own way and should probably be listed with the back up quarterbacks I mentioned earlier. That left us with Wilson, Brees, Ryan, and (gulp) Baker Mayfield as the quarterbacks to own and the offenses we wanted to target the most. This made for some challenging roster construction. Let's take a look at the top fantasy producers from week 12:

What Did We Learn?

Here we'll focus on a couple players at each position who stood out (both good and bad) and identify if there's any actionable information we can use when building our rosters going forward.

Quarterbacks

Baker Mayfield, CLE: 24/34, 327 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT

Despite drastically under performing as a whole, the Browns find themselves very much in the playoff hunt for the sixth seed in the AFC at 5-6. They are sitting behind a large group of 6-5 teams including the Colts, Raiders, Titans, and this week's opponent, the Steelers. Working in Cleveland's favor is one of the easier schedules in the league down the stretch which includes two games against the Bengals. Trending up at the right time, Mayfield has put up at least 17 fantasy points in five of his last six games. The Browns are doing a better job recently of emphasizing their top talent, getting OBJ involved early and often as well as Jarvis Landry who has been red hot of late. The addition of Kareem Hunt has also added a new layer to this passing game. Playing in basically all "must-win" games the rest of the way, I'm expecting to have some exposure to Cleveland in the upcoming weeks.

Sam Darnold, NYJ: 20/39, 315 yards, 2 TD

I give a lot of credit to Darnold, believe it or not. After being the joke of the league for several weeks following the "seeing ghosts" comment that aired on TV, he has really bounced back in the past few weeks. He went through a tough stretch of opponents when he returned from mono but in the past four weeks he's had some solid stat lines including:

• 27/39, 260 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT @ Miami

• 19/30, 230 yards, 1 TD vs. NYG

• 19/30, 293 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT @ Washington

• 20/29, 315 yards, 2 TD vs. Oakland

Granted, these more recent games are against teams with passing defenses all ranked in the bottom half of the league. For the time being we need to consider Darnold as a match up dependent option. In difficult match ups, he has a high probability of seeing ghosts and we should avoid him. In favorable match ups, he has a high probability of seeing dollar signs and his ownership should still be low because the rest of the field will focus on recent results rather than the big picture. This could give us an edge in the coming weeks with him facing off against the 0-11 Bengals in week 13 and an improving but still awful Dolphins in week 14. Hopefully he doesn't get mono again...there's a story floating around that Darnold was seen drunk and hooking up with a girl at a club after the win on Sunday.

Running Backs

David Montgomery, CHI: 13 carries, 22 yards, 2 catches, 9 yards

It would appear as though the David Montgomery breakout was short lived, as he's followed up his week eight and nine performances (28 and 23 fantasy points, respectively) with three straight games of 6 fantasy points or less. Sunday was the most discouraging performance yet, averaging only 1.69 yards per carry in a favorable match up against the Giants who rank middle of the pack in rush defense DVOA. Up next is a Turkey Day match up against the Lions who are also middle of the pack (18th) against the run. Given his current downward trend, total lack of efficiency, and zero touchdowns over the past several games, I can't see myself having any interest in Montgomery for the foreseeable future.

Raashad Penny, SEA: 14 carries, 129 yards, 1 TD

Did Chris Carson finally fumble his way out of a starting job? He's had, up to this point, one of the longest leashes we've ever seen for a skill position player who struggles with ball security. Even more so when you consider his back up is a player the Seahawks spent a first round pick on the year prior. After yet another lost fumble in this game (his eighth of the season) Carson took a backseat to Penny, getting out touched 14-8. Penny clearly made the most of his opportunities including breaking off a long 58 yard touchdown run. It's impossible to know what Pete Carroll is thinking which is going to make this a tricky situation to monitor. Will Carson take over again next week? Will this turn into an even split backfield? Could Penny become the lead guy? My guess would be (and this is a guess) that this turns into more of a timeshare, potentially rendering each player useless for DFS purposes. If feeling obligated to go here, I would lean toward Penny, who will come with a lower price tag but seemingly have similar opportunity (and has similar talent).

Wide Receivers

Chris Conley, JAX: 4 receptions, 49 yards

DJ Chark is having a breakout season and is the true leading receiver on the Jaguars offense but Chris Conley, not Dede Westbrook (who we expected to be the #1 this season) is quietly emerging as the second option in this offense. The stat line on Sunday obviously leaves a lot to be desired (only catching four of nine targets) but it's the opportunity that should be getting our attention. Conley saw nine targets, his fifth straight game with at least seven targets, and had 176 targeted air yards (NextGen Stats) in this game. That kind of opportunity for someone priced in his range should put him firmly on our radar on a regular basis. Even better, Conley gets a match up this week with our favorite passing defense "punching bag," the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Conley could provide a nice value play with a solid floor and the opportunity to break loose on a play and reach his ceiling.

Tyler Boyd, CIN: 5 receptions, 101 yards, 1 TD

Boyd's performance is interesting for a couple of reasons. First, he was forced the ball in this one with a little "squeaky wheel" treatment after publicly complaining about his role to the media following the one catch on one target performance the week prior. I would have told you, despite the obvious emphasis to get him involved, it will be tough to trust him with a quarterback who is completing less than 50% of his passes and the Bengals are clearly going out of their way to hide. But yesterday the Bengals announced they are turning back to Andy Dalton. Did Cincinnati throw Finley to the wolves in order to help secure the top overall pick? Unlikely, but it only took them a few games to realize that Finley clearly was not an upgrade over Dalton. With Dalton back under center, and assuming A.J Green is still out, look for Boyd's fantasy production to climb again.

Tight Ends

George Kittle, SF: 6 receptions, 129 yards, 1 TD

With a broken bone in his ankle, Kittle still managed to gut it out in this game and put up a monster performance. The big play was a beautiful 61 yard touchdown pass that was setup by the play action fake where Kittle managed to get behind the secondary and was completely alone. We know Kittle is, at worst, a top five option at tight end. In season long, if he plays then you play him. In DFS, it's a little more complicated than that. He comes with a high salary and is an obvious risk for an in game set back given he's not 100% healthy. You need to be fully aware of what you're signing up for if you pay his salary. Next up, a potential Super Bowl preview against the Ravens. Given how easily the Ravens cut through the Patriots' top ranked defense, I would say the 49ers will have a tough time stopping Lamar and company as well. This is going to force San Francisco into passing mode, possibly early, which should lead to extra targets for Kittle.

Jack Doyle, IND: 3 receptions, 28 yards

This performance, obviously, is not noteworthy. It's what else happened on Thursday night that should be getting our attention. Eric Ebron played, at less than 100%, and suffered a setback somewhere along the way (he finished the game). Yesterday, the Colts placed him on injured reserve, ending his season. With only Moe-Alie Cox and recently signed off the street Ross Travis behind him on the depth chart, Doyle should see a spike in passing routes run and possibly even red zone opportunities no longer having to split time with Ebron. The tight end position, as a whole, hasn't been great for Indy this season, but at a thin position in general, it's going to be hard to ignore Doyle at his very cheap salary with an expected increase in opportunities.

Millionaire Maker In Review

In this section we'll take a look at the winning "milly maker" lineup with a focus on players selected, ownership, and roster construction. I'll switch back and forth between DraftKings and FanDuel.

Another week. Another stack against the Dolphins taking home all the money. Mayfield, Chubb, and Landry were all excellent plays given the upward trend of the Browns offense we already discussed and the match up this week. Chubb and Landry stick out to me here as leverage plays on the field where Kareem Hunt for his inexpensive passing game role and OBJ for his cheaper than usual salary were getting quite a bit more buzz.

Derrick Henry was an awesome play against a Jaguars team that is 30th in rush defense DVOA and he has owned in the past. Again, the issue with Henry is always the lack of a passing game role and his reliance on touchdowns but he was a pretty sure bet to find the end zone at least once this week.

Bo Scarbrough's ownership surprised me. I understand he was cheap and coming off a game where he had seemingly taken over the lead role in the Lions backfield. I just have a hard time trusting the Lions running game (similar to the Patriots) as it just never seems like the same player gets the most usage weekly. He didn't do much (with catches or touchdowns) but at his very cheap price, he didn't kill this lineup (obviously) either.

DJ Moore continues to emerge as one of the top receivers in football. The moment that Marshon Lattimore was ruled out in this game, Moore should have jumped up near the top of our rankings for this week. 5.2% ownership on him is a crime. James Washington had some appeal with JuJu missing from this game. The obvious risk here is Mason Rudolph was his quarterback but Washington really only needs one or two big plays to pay off his salary and that's exactly what happened here. With the extra targets he was expected to see, he was worth taking a chance on the low floor.

Jared Cook is inserting himself into the conversation for best fantasy tight end in the league. He's seen 20 targets over the last three games and scored two touchdowns since returning from injury. He's now scored four touchdowns in his last five games played.

Last, but not least, the Seattle defense was a very interesting play in hindsight. Personally (and ultimately where I went wrong this week) I had some exposure to the cheap Eagles offensive players who were likely to see added opportunities with all the injuries. Assuming the rest of the field was thinking the same as me, playing the Seattle defense was a fantastic leverage play. An aggressive defense against a struggling offense missing a lot of key players.

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