By: Greg Landry | LineStar Chat: @glandry | Twitter: @GP_Landry

Welcome back to LineStar NFL Takeaways! For those of you new to the community here, this article is published every Tuesday and takes a position by position look at several players whose fantasy performance stood out (both good and bad) and what this might mean in the fantasy landscape as we start to prepare for the week ahead.

It was a busy week in the NFL with some last minute wins and also a bunch of key injuries that will have an impact on the fantasy landscape. Before we dive into that, we are now seven weeks into the season so it seems like a good time to take an early look at who is truly contending and who is just pretending in each division.

AFC East: The Bills are one of three teams in the NFL with a winning record but a negative point differential (Cleveland and Chicago are the others) which puts them on the fence right now. Miami, at 3-3 has an impressive +47 point differential but a challenging schedule ahead of them. Plus, they are handing the keys over to Tua (rightfully so, they need to know if he’s the long term solution or not). Given how bad the Patriots are playing right now, this feels like it’s Buffalo’s division to lose which makes them a contender, but barely.

AFC North: This is all about the Steelers and the Ravens, who have two games against each other coming up that will likely decide this division. Most likely both teams make the playoffs and I would put both squarely in the contender category. Nothing against Cleveland, they are moving in the right direction, but they’ve already been smoked by both of these teams. They are still pretending.

AFC South: Indianapolis was very happy to see Pittsburgh pull out the win against Tennessee on Sunday, which makes this a close race. Both teams have solid point differentials and still need to play each other twice. I’m giving the edge to the Titans here, they kept it close against Pittsburgh. Meanwhile, the Colts have questionable losses against the Jaguars and Browns while barely escaping the Bengals. They seem like they are pretending. However, if the Colts can pull off wins against the Titans, it may be a different story in a month.

AFC West: Never in doubt. Kansas City is the only contending team here. It was a fun headline for a week when Las Vegas pulled off the upset but they are unlikely to make this interesting. I will say that Las Vegas and Los Angeles are both moving in the right direction.

NFC East: Everyone in this division is pretending right now. Dallas is in all kinds of trouble, Philadelphia barely escaped against the Giants this week. You could honestly make an argument for Washington, especially with their defense, to win here. It will be a waste of a playoff spot for whomever does pull it out.

NFC North: Chicago got exposed on Monday night football last night. They are pretending. This is Green Bay's division. They still have to play each other twice so the Bears will have plenty of chances to prove us wrong.

NFC South: This is an interesting division. Tampa Bay has the best point differential in football, at +80, but they also lost to the Saints. However, their loss to the Saints was in week one and it’s hard to draw any real conclusions from that game. The Saints have since barely escaped with wins against the Lions, Chargers, and Panthers while losing to the Raiders. The Bucs have had much more convincing wins. I think the Saints are the pretenders here.

NFC West: Can you imagine being in this division and knowing that somebody is going to make the playoffs in the NFC East but some teams in this division will not? Every team in this division has a winning record and a strong point differential. I would have told you the Cardinals and the 49ers were more pretenders before this weekend’s games but with both teams pulling off impressive wins, I think it’s anybody’s division at this point. My money right now is still on Seattle mainly because of Russell Wilson but they need to figure out their defense. This is going to be the division to watch down the stretch.

What does all this mean for fantasy? Truth be told, not much yet, it’s still too early. But we will continue to keep tabs on these situations periodically throughout the season. As we get closer to the end, you’ll want to focus more of your attention on teams who are still contending than teams who are not. Motivation is key at the end of a long season.

What Did We Learn?

Here we'll focus on some players at each position who stood out (both good and bad) and identify if there's any actionable information we can use when building our rosters going forward.

Quarterbacks

Baker Mayfield: 22/28, 297 yards, 5 TD, 1 INT

I guess Mayfield was a little sick of everyone doubting him recently? Not to mention some added pressure going up against a fellow number one overall pick in Joe Burrow (Mayfield went number one overall in 2018 don't forget). This game had the feeling of being a pivotal moment for the Browns. Coming off a bad loss, the doubters instantly started to surface again around this team (let’s face it, Cleveland has kind of earned that reputation over the years). It was important for Cleveland to bounce back with a win and not let one loss turn into two. While the list of teams Cleveland has defeated this year isn’t overly impressive, the list of teams they’ve lost to is, with both Baltimore and Pittsburgh being contenders this year. Mayfield really stepped up in this one, throwing a career high five touchdowns (to four different receivers) and only turning it over once. In a game that turned into more of a shootout than expected, and with Cleveland not being able to get much going on the ground, getting their QB to step up and win them a game was encouraging. I’ve been knocking Mayfield quite a bit myself recently, so I’ll give credit for this one game where it’s due, but the key here will be consistency. Can he string more than one solid game together or will he go back to turning the ball over three times next week? Time will tell. I’m still bearish on his long term outlook, however, he does have a really positive matchup against the Raiders coming up.

Cam Newton: 9/15, 98 yards, 3 INT

The train has come off the tracks in New England. They haven’t scored a touchdown in two weeks and now have a losing record in October or later into the season for the first time since November 10th, 2002. Newton was awful in this game, throwing three picks and getting pulled early. Meanwhile, the Bills improved to 5-2 and these two teams face off this week in Buffalo. At the end of the day, this is a Bill Belichick coached team with a history of winning consistently. The Patriots will not be as bad as we’ve seen the past couple of weeks all season. But with that said, I also don’t think they’ll be much better than an average team this year. You could try and pick and choose your spots to target Patriots players but realize that the floor is zero, even if there is some ceiling there. Most people aren’t going to even consider these players going forward, given that New England is typically a hard team to project for fantasy purposes anyway. This potentially gives us some leverage in tournaments to throw some darts and chase ceiling, but just understand how risky that is. These are large field tournament options only.

Running Backs

Ezekiel Elliot: 12 carries, 45 yards, 1 reception, 6 yards

Well, they did it. The Cowboys have officially hit rock bottom. You can blame this all you want on the vicious hit that knocked Dalton out of the game, but the Cowboys were down and doing very little even before that happened. Even at less than full strength, there’s more than enough talent on the Cowboys for them to be able to take down Washington. Even worse than Zeke’s poor performance is that once Dallas fell behind, he was completely removed from the equation, seeing very little pass game work. Normally, we would expect Zeke to stay involved regardless of game script, so this is now something we’ll need to keep an eye on. We are talking about a small sample here, so I wouldn’t suddenly start treating Zeke like a game script dependent running back quite yet. There’s only one direction to go from here. We’ll see how Zeke’s price adjusts after two really bad games in a row. If Dalton is forced to miss time, you can bet Dallas will lean on the run. But teams will stack the box, which means Dallas will need to get creative about getting the ball to their star playmaker in space. I don't have enough faith in the Dallas coaching staff to figure that out. Zeke still has ceiling, so if the public all jump off this train, I will probably say on but he's a risky bet right now.

Todd Gurley: 23 carries, 63 yards, 2 TD, 2 receptions, 19 yards

Gurley had a season high in carries and total touches as his fantasy stock continues to rise. He wasn’t overly productive with his opportunities but did manage to salvage his day with two more touchdowns. That puts him at seven TDs on the season, tied for first in the NFL among running backs. Unfortunately for Gurley, he wishes he didn’t score his second touchdown. He tried to drop at the one yard line but couldn’t stop his forward momentum enough and crossed the line. This allowed the Lions to get the ball back with enough time to work with against the Falcons swiss cheese defense, and Stafford led them on a brilliant touchdown drive to win the game. Once again, the Falcons had higher than a 95% win probability in this game and lost. Still, they have been more competitive the last two games under interim coach Raheem Morris. Plus, all the talent on this offense and their complete lack of defense makes them the perfect team to target from a fantasy perspective. Keep buying Gurley and the Falcons.

Jeff Wilson JR: 17 carries, 112 yards, 3 TD

No Mostert, no problem apparently for the 49ers. Garopollo, in his first game against his former team, wasn’t all that great in this one. He was efficient, going 20/25, but had zero touchdowns and two interceptions. It didn’t matter, however, because the Patriots supposedly ____ ranked defense had no answers for the San Francisco running game. They ran it down their throats all night and there was nothing New England could do to stop it. Even beyond the really impressive performance by Wilson, Jamycal Hasty picked up 57 yards on just 9 carries. Collectively, the 49ers ran the ball 37 times for 197 yard and four touchdowns. The takeaway here is that San Francisco is finding their groove as a run first team, taking some of the pressure off of Garopollo. The 49ers have confidence in all of their running backs. If Wilson (who left early in this game) and Mostert both miss next week, expect Hasty to pick up the slack.

Wide Receivers

Scotty Miller: 6 receptions, 109 yards 1 TD

Brady has Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Rob Gronkowski at his disposal and yet here he is emphasizing Scotty Miller. This is really interesting timing after Antonio Brown signed a contract to join Tampa Bay earlier in the week. This is suddenly an incredibly talented, but very crowded wide receiver room. Was emphasizing Scotty Miller this week a showcase opportunity before the trade deadline? I can think of a few teams who could seriously use some help at wide receiver (cough, Patriots, cough). If Miller doesn’t get moved, I can’t imagine these opportunities remain, as all of these guys are probably going to eat into each other’s targets. It’s great for their real life situation, as the Bucs are clearly in “Super Bowl or bust” mode, but from a fantasy standpoint, we are going to be throwing darts trying to figure out which receiver on this team will get the targets each week. Plus, we know Brady is one of the best at spreading the ball around. Assuming AB works out (which is a big assumption given his track record) our best approach to Tampa Bay going forward may be Tom Brady by himself, as that gives you exposure to all the wide receivers without the guesswork.

Tyler Lockett: 15 receptions, 200 yards, 3 TD

Imagine having a receiver who catches 15 passes for 200 yards and 3 touchdowns and still losing the game. Oh wait, that’s exactly what happened. Fortunately for us, we are less worried about the outcome of the game itself and more concerned with individual performances. Lockett had 20 targets in this game. 20! That’s crazy. Meanwhile, DK Metcalf had just five targets in this one. Metcalf is a very talented receiver and these two together are one of the best wide receiver duos in football. This game, however, has made it clear that Lockett is the alpha in this group and the first option on a lot of reads. What does this mean for us? I’d view this as an opportunity to buy more Metcalf. After this game, his price will likely drop, and the public will start clinging to Lockett. But we know Metcalf has a similar ceiling. In tournaments, I’m all in on Metcalf hoping I can catch some lightning in a bottle when everyone else hops on the Lockett train.

Marquez Callaway: 8 receptions, 75 yards

He didn’t exactly light up the box score, but Calloway’s increasing involvement in this offense is notable. After seeing only one target total in the first three games, he’s seen six and now ten targets in his last two. Michael Thomas is still dealing with an injury which could continue to keep him out of the lineup. This means Calloway’s opportunities could continue for at least another week. I’m a bit surprised Thomas wasn’t ready for this one coming off the bye week, and the Saints are already saying he could miss week eight. Either the injury is more serious than the team is letting on, or something else (perhaps lingering from the fight that caused Thomas to get suspended a couple weeks ago) is going on here. Keep an eye on this situation.

Tight Ends

TJ Hockenson: 5 receptions, 59 yards, 1 TD

I’m just going to paint a quick picture here.

• Week 1: Olsen 4/24/1

• Week 2: Schultz: 9/88/1

• Week 3: Graham: 6/60/2

• Week 4: Tonyan: 6/98/3

• Week 5: Ian Thomas 0/0

• Week 6: Smith: 4/55, Rudolph: 3/47 (combined 7/102)

The only team that didn’t expose the Falcons with their tight end was the Panthers but they never use their tight end anyway (Thomas had one target in that game). Every other team has obliterated the Falcons with tight ends and this is a large enough sample size where we can conclude this is a real thing. Unfortunately, this won’t be some big secret, as most of the DFS community has caught on to this trend by now. But at a position that can be really difficult to find production, it may be worth following the crowd here, taking the points, and finding other places to differentiate your lineup. Continue attacking the Atlanta defense with all positions, but particularly with tight ends.

Logan Thomas: 4 receptions, 60 yards, 1 TD

After starting off the season averaging eight targets per game through the first few weeks, Thomas has settled for four targets now in four straight games. It doesn’t sound like much, but he’s getting consistent volume at a position where we have anything but consistency. He’s also found the end zone now in two straight games, further boosting his range of scoring outcomes. Thomas will continue to be a part of my tight end pool in future weeks as a player with somewhat reliable volume and a red zone role at a position with a ton of volatility. Again, not someone we need to have, obviously, but if tight end is the last position on my roster I’m filling in and he fits the remaining salary requirements, then he’d be in consideration.

Harrison Bryant: 4 receptions, 56 yards, 2 TD

An impressive performance from the fourth round pick out of Florida Atlantic. The Browns seem to like him and this game makes it easy to see why. However, I don’t think there’s much to see here at the moment. Remember, Austin Hooper missed this game which forced Bryant into a larger role. Plus, OBJ went down during the game, leaving more targets up for grabs. Once Hooper comes back, Bryant likely falls down the priority order again. It’s certainly possible he can find a red zone look here and there but his volume won’t be bankable, making him a tough sell for fantasy purposes. Keep a pin in him for now, as I think his future stock is on the rise. If a more long term injury to either Hooper or Njoku occurs, then Bryant will be a name to consider. But until then, this feels a bit like chasing points more than anything else.

Key Injuries To Watch

In this section we'll take a look at some key injuries and what the potential impact may be for fantasy purposes.

Note: As a reminder, I’m writing this on Monday, so the news below may change depending on when you read this. Use the NFL beat writers twitter feed (which is directly inside your LineStar account) as well as the news page to get up to speed.

Odell Beckham, WR, Cleveland Browns

It’s a torn ACL and he’s out for the season. Losing that kind of talent is always devastating to any team, the Browns have enough talent that they can still overcome this. With the running game struggling a bit since Nick Chubb’s injury and the Browns needing to be a bit more pass heavy than they’d like, there should be quite a few targets up for grabs here. Jarvis Landry (assuming he’s healthy) is the obvious candidate to step into that number one role. Rashard Higgins should take over the #2 duties.

Diontae Johnson, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

He cannot stay healthy and it’s a shame because he’s awesome when he's on the field. He had a big game in this one despite the injury in the fourth quarter. We know the story here. If he does miss time, then it will be the JuJu and Chase Claypool show. Johnson limped off the field on his own power though, so hopefully it’s not serious.

Breshad Perriman, WR, New York Jets

It’s a concussion, so he’ll likely miss at least a week. With Sam Darnold back, this becomes a little more interesting as it could open up some value within the Jets pass catchers. Rookie Denzel Mims made his NFL debut and caught four passes for 42 yards. His role should continue to grow. This is the Jets though, so proceed with caution.

Dede Westbrook, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

He was carted off the field with a knee injury and immediately ruled out. I’m guessing this is “out of the season” territory. Westbook hasn’t been used much in the passing game (he’s been handling punt return duties mostly) so the impact on fantasy here is relatively low.

N’Keal Harry, WR, New England Patriots

It was a head injury for Harry, who did not return. The Patriots couldn’t get anything going so it's not clear if holding him out was a precaution or not considering they were down big. If he does miss time it will open up some targets but they will likely be spread out.

Phillip Lindsay, RB, Denver Broncos

Lindsay suffered a concussion, so I would assume he misses at least a week. Melvin Gordon enters three down back territory but has a difficult matchup against the Chargers coming up.

Jeff Wilson, RB, San Francisco 49ers

He had a huge game before leaving in the 4th quarter. Early indications are a high ankle sprain which would put him on the shelf for several weeks. With Raheem Mostert on IR, this becomes a split backfield between Jerrick McKinnon and JaMycal Hasty. I would lean toward Hasty getting more work. The 49ers still seem very hesitant to give McKinnon an increased workload with his injury history. Hasty was productive with his carries against New England.

Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49ers

It’s a hamstring injury, which as we know can be tricky. Early reports are he will miss this weekend's game against Seattle. Expect Brandon Aiyuk to be pushed into the top receiver role and for George Kittle to see all the targets he can handle.

Chris Carson, RB, Seattle Seahawks

Carson’s injury is being called a foot sprain but he will need an MRI. I wouldn’t expect much from Carlos Hyde if Carson does miss time. Russell Wilson was actually Seattle’s leading rusher on Sunday. My assumption is Seattle would just go even more pass heavy than they already are.

Kenyan Drake, RB, Arizona Cardinals

Drake suffered an ankle injury and was carted off the field, which is obviously not good news. If he misses time, which we should expect, Chase Edmonds becomes a very valuable player. We’ve seen Edmonds in action and we know he’s capable of producing when given the opportunity. He’s typically one of the most popular handcuff picks year after year.

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