By: Greg Landry | LineStar Chat: @glandry | Twitter: @GP_Landry

Welcome to NFL Takeaways! An important, and often overlooked, foundation of any DFS process is taking a look back at the previous slate and honestly assessing how we did. What did we get right? What did we get wrong? How can I learn from this and improve next week? This will be a weekly newsletter series with that focus in mind.

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Remember when I said week three was the strangest slate I could recall in quite some time? I take it back. Week four had other ideas. At one point, during the first half of the 1pm games, the following players had all scored touchdowns:

• Ricky Seals-Jones, CLE

• Brandon Bolden, NE

• Trevor Davis, OAK

• Foster Moreau, OAK

• Troymaine Pope, LAC

• DeVante Parker, MIA

• Ito Smith, ATL

• A.J Brown, TEN

• Wayne Gallman, NYG

Gallman is legitimately the only fantasy relevant player on that list. Three of these guys (Davis, Moreau, and Pope) I had never even heard of before. In the end, we had eleven road teams win this week, which is crazy. We also had a number of upsets including the Eagles (+3.5), Browns (+7), Panthers (+5.5), Raiders (+6), Titans (+3.5), Bucs (+9), and Jaguars (+2.5). We also had the Saints win at home despite being +2.5 with Teddy Bridgewater getting another start. All in all, it was a wild week in the NFL with plenty of surprise outcomes both in the game results as well as from a fantasy perspective. If you built your lineups around scenarios nobody else was expecting then chances are you had a strong week. Let’s take a look at the top scoring players of the week:

What Did We Learn?

Here we'll focus on a few players at each position who stood out (both good and bad) and identify if there's any actionable information we can use when building our rosters going forward.

Quarterbacks

Jameis Winston, TB: 28/41, 385 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT

There were a lot of surprise games this week but Tampa Bay going across the country and hanging 55 points on the Rams defense had to be the biggest surprise of all. Coming into this game, the Rams ranked 5th in pass defense DVOA having only allowed one opposing quarterback to throw for over 200 yards. Winston wasn’t flawless, including a pick six thrown to Marcus Peters in the fourth quarter which nearly let the Rams back into the game. But after coming into this game with the lowest passer rating in the league, this looks like a massive step in the right direction.

What Did We Learn? Bruce Arians was brought in to figure out an offense that has a ton of pieces to work with but has historically under performed despite the number one overall pick under center. They’ve done a little better each week on offense, scoring 17 in week one, 20 in week two, 31 in week three, and 55 in week four. Winston will continue to carry a scary low floor, as we know the consistency has never been there. Though with Arians leading this offense in the right direction, his ceiling has a lot of appeal. For now, treat him as a GPP-only in the right match ups. If he can string a few solid starts together we can re-visit the cash game conversation, especially if the price doesn’t catch up to his productivity.

Matt Ryan, ATL: 35/53, 397 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT

Game script, game script, game script. The Falcons defense is officially awful after making Marcus Mariota, on the road no less, look good on Sunday (18/27, 227 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT). Atlanta has now started off in a hole in each game and been forced into the air early and often. Ryan has thrown 46, 43, 34, and 53 pass attempts through the first four weeks and gone over 300 yards in each game. Even in an terrible game, where Atlanta only managed to score ten points (at home, in a dome) Ryan salvaged his own day by throwing for nearly 400 yards in the loss.

What Did We Learn? While we would prefer our quarterback to be on the winning team that is actually putting up points, Ryan showed off his rock solid floor with Sunday’s performance. There are far too many weapons on this offense for the scoring to not improve (have yet to go over 24 points this season), which gives Ryan a path to ceiling when the touchdowns roll in. If the Falcons have to keep playing from behind, which seems likely, the high pass attempts and yardage will keep him in the conversation every week. Dan Quinn first coach to get fired this season? Anyone? This team is wasting Julio Jones right now.

Tom Brady, NE: 18/39, 150 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT

He is human! The Patriots offense can be stopped! Brady actually looked like a man over 40 years old this week. After outscoring their first three opponents 106-17, New England couldn’t get anything going against the Buffalo defense. Brady, in all seriousness, was awful in this game with only 2.5 average completed air yards (lowest of any QB on the slate) and a passer rating of just 45.9 ahead of only Dwayne Haskins and Josh Allen. 

What Did We Learn? The Bills defense is elite. I think we already knew that to be honest, particularly in their secondary, but this game certainly puts them on the map from now on. Buffalo is never an easy place to play, but we would normally still expect more from a Patriots offense, regardless of opponent. Brady looked lost most of the day. The Bills are a unit to avoid, particularly at home (and a unit to use for DFS purposes, especially at home). Don’t worry about the Patriots, they get the Redskins next week. All will be right with the world once again (sorry, I am from Boston though). 

Running Backs

Leonard Fournette, JAX: 29 rush, 225 yards and 2 receptions, 20 yards

I tried to take advantage of the “buy low” window on Fournette this week in season long after the awful game he had in week three where he mostly ran for negative yardage aside from one broken play that salvaged his fantasy day. Welp, that window was slammed shut in a big way as Fournette proved all the doubters wrong on Sunday. Obviously we would have preferred he scored a touchdown to really cap off this performance but touchdowns can be difficult to predict. And with the usage he’s getting, we can feel confident the scoring opportunities will come. Side note – how about this Minshew guy? Remember after the Eagles surprise Super Bowl win over the Patriots we all thought Foles may have stolen the Philadelphia starting job permanently from Wentz? Do we think Foles has now lost his current job to Minshew?

What Did We Learn? Fournette’s usage is climbing each week with 17, 19, 21, and then 31 touches this past week. The Jaguars are finding their way with Minshew at the helm and while he’s outperforming expectations, the Jags want to lean on him as little as possible. I think we learned two things here. First, Fournette has a weekly high floor/high ceiling with the usage he’s getting. There is nobody else in this backfield to spell him now that Yeldon is in Buffalo. As long as he’s healthy (he looked it today repeatedly breaking tackles and picking up yards after contact) and getting passing game work, the fantasy production will be there. Second, attacking the Broncos on the ground could be a sneaky option moving forward. Generally speaking, Denver is a defense the field avoids because of their past success and the talented individuals on the roster, but this unit so far ranks 20th in rush defense DVOA and 26th in pass defense DVOA. They finally got after the quarterback a bit this week but to give up 26 points at home against Gardner Minshew and 225 yards rushing to Fournette – this is really looking like a defense we don’t need to avoid (and dare I say we should start attacking).

Wayne Gallman, Jr, NYG: 18 rush, 63 yards, 1 TD and 6 receptions, 55 yards, 1 TD    

Did Saquon just change numbers? I’m kidding, obviously, but we have to be encouraged by what we saw from Gallman. There was a lot of debate from the fantasy industry about what to do with him on Sunday. In tournaments, I understood, as he’s never flashed much of a ceiling in the past, making it difficult to jump on board if we assume he was going to be highly owned. But in cash games, we had a cheap running back at home on the team that was favored with a clear path to 20 touches. As soon as New York decided not to sign another running back (I figured CJ Anderson would have been signed rather quickly) you had to go all in on Gallman in cash. His floor was rock solid and he finally flashed some unexpected ceiling in this one.

What Did We Learn? There is quite a bit to consider here moving forward. First, pump the brakes a little. This was against the Redskins who were ranked 25 in rush defense DVOA prior to this game. The Giants have the Vikings up next followed by the Patriots, and given that his price is likely to rise after this performance, I don’t see myself using him again for at least a couple of weeks. On the other hand, what really surprised me was the passing game usage. He had six receptions on seven targets and a receiving touchdown. He’s obviously not as talented as Saquon but the Giants are still using him in a similar fashion. Given that we should expect the Giants to trail in each of the next two games, he could be a sneaky bet to get some additional passing game work. However, we also have to consider the return of Golden Tate which could eat into some of his targets. Overall, there are just too many variables here. I hope you took advantage of him this week. I don’t see us using him again for a while. 

Nick Chubb, CLE: 20 rush, 165 yards, 3 TD and 3 receptions, 18 yards

I’m kicking myself for not being on him this week. Chubb showed us last season that he had the ability to flirt with being considered “match up proof” and although he hadn’t shown his ceiling quite yet this season, he’s been getting the workload to take him there. This was a tough match up on the road against a division rival. And although running back didn’t have a lot to offer this past week, I felt like we should fade Chubb in this spot, hope for a down game, and then next week would be the week to possibly jump on. He now has 20, 22, 27, and 23 touches in the first four games of the season. He’s had at least three catches in every game and has four touchdowns through four weeks after punching in three this past Sunday.

What Did We Learn? He has now faced the Titans (13th in rush defense DVOA), the Jets (11th in rush defense DVOA), the Rams (9th in rush defense DVOA), and the Ravens (12th in rush defense DVOA) and has still put up a respectable stat line in each game. It won’t get any easier this week against a 49ers defense coming off the bye week and ranking 5th in rush defense DVOA, but Chubb will continue to get all the work as the bell cow back and has one of the higher floor/ceiling combinations in the league. Once a match up favors him a little more, watch out.   

Wide Receivers

Courtland Sutton, DEN: 6 receptions, 62 yards, and 2 TDs

I can’t believe it but it looks like Joe Flacco is going to be able to do enough to sustain two fantasy-worthy receivers on the Broncos. A couple of weeks ago we talked about Emmanuel Sanders in this article, who is averaging eight targets per game, meanwhile Sutton has been quietly holding his own with eight targets per game as well, and he finally turned those into a break out fantasy performance, finding the end zone twice on Sunday. Coming into this game, Sutton had six red zone targets but had yet to convert on any of them so it was good for him to pick up a couple in this one. 

What Did We Learn? 1) The Broncos are in trouble with their 0-4 start. It’s disappointing, as I was a supporter of the Vic Fangio hiring, after being one of the best defensive coordinators in the game for so many years. But the defense is under performing for all the talent they have and to add insult to injury, they lost Bradley Chubb for the season. That’s the bad news. In terms of Courtland Sutton, there is a silver lining here. With the Broncos likely to be playing in negative game scripts most of the time, it’s going to lead to extra pass attempts each week. Denver has a VERY narrow distribution of targets with Sanders owning 40.7% of the teams targeted air yards and Sutton owning 36.5%. This should lead to at least eight targets per game and with his role in the red zone it gives him one of the stronger floor/ceiling combos at the receiver position going forward. Both Sanders and Sutton have been very under priced for their roles so far.  

Cole Beasley, BUF: 7 receptions, 75 yards

Let’s do a quick comparison through the first four weeks:

• Player A: 36 targets, 24 receptions, 259 yards, 2 touchdowns, 3.6 yards after catch per reception

• Player B: 36 targets, 25 receptions, 378 yards, 0 touchdowns, 6.1 yards after catch per reception

• Player C: 36 targets, 24 receptions, 246 yards, 0 touchdowns, 5.1 yards after catch per reception

Anyone want to take a guess who each of these players are? Player A is DeAndre Hopkins, Player B is Davante Adams, and Player C is, you guessed it, Cole freaking Beasley. Will he continue to keep pace with Hopkins and Adams? No, absolutely not. They both have higher average air yards which leads to more upside and scoring chances, a larger percentage of their team’s market share and, of course, more skill. The point is that Beasley was brought into Buffalo to provide Josh Allen some help underneath and a reliable target to take advantage of and the Bills are using him to his full potential. 

What Did We Learn? This was actually the first week of the season Beasley did not find his way into my cash game builds, as I didn’t like the match up against a difficult Patriots defense. Even in a horrible match up, and with Matt Barkley playing in the fourth quarter, Beasley still saw 12 targets and managed to return value by hauling in seven of them. He has zero ceiling and his only value is in PPR formats like DraftKings or FantasyDraft, but his price is unlikely to climb very high due to the lack of touchdown upside and the floor is rock solid. You could do a lot worse if you’re looking to pay down for floor at a volatile WR position.  

Allen Robinson, CHI: 7 receptions, 77 yards

Buy low, buy low, buy low. Robinson is another player who has yet to find the end zone and will seemingly be written off by the masses with the Bears losing Mitchell Trubisky to a shoulder injury and going to veteran backup QB Chase Daniels. Do we really consider Daniels much of a downgrade (if at all) to Trubisky? He looked pretty good on Sunday in a difficult spot against the Vikings. You know who else looked good? Robinson. Despite being in a difficult match up against Xavier Rhodes he still managed to haul in all seven of his targets. He’s now been targeted at least seven times in each game and even has a 14 target game from back in week one. 

What Did We Learn? Now two seasons removed from his torn ACL, Robinson is showing the skills he has that made him a star during his career year in Jacksonville before the injury. He has yet to find the end zone or break 100 yards receiving in a game, which obviously isn’t ideal, but he’s seeing a solid 10.6 average targeted air yards and owns a 39.2% share of his team’s targets. With the amount of usage he’s getting, the scoring opportunities and break out yardage games will follow. With Trubisky out for the foreseeable future, I actually think Daniels could be an upgrade to some of these offensive pieces. We also tend to see the backup QBs lean harder on key players rather than spread the ball around, which could raise Robinson’s target share even further.

Tight Ends

Will Dissly, SEA: 7 receptions, 57 yards, 1 TD

Updating our list of tight ends to face the Cardinals this season:

1)     TJ Hockenson, DET: 6 receptions, 131 yards, 1 TD

2)     Mark Andrews, BAL: 8 receptions, 112 yards, 1 TD

3)     Hayden Hurst, BAL: 1 reception, 1 yard, 1 TD

4)     Greg Olsen, CAR: 6 receptions, 75 yards, 2 TD

5)     Will Dissly, SEA: 7 receptions, 57 yards, 1 TD

What Did We Learn? Two things. First, tight ends against the Cardinals #analysis. Second, this was the third straight game Dissly has scored a touchdown. He now has 18 receptions (19 targets) for 169 yards and four touchdowns in three games. He now has six touchdowns in just eight NFL appearances and is clearly a preferred target of Russell Wilson around the goal line. The Seahawks trading Nick Vannett to Pittsburgh is a clear sign that 1) they believe in Dissly’s talent and 2) he’s healthy again.

Gerald Everett, LAR: 5 receptions, 44 yards, 1 TD

I can easily see Everett gaining some buzz this week with people so desperate to find value and consistency at the worst position in fantasy football. I've got news for you. Everett is not the answer. The eight targets here are an outlier as Jared Goff attempted an absurd 68 passes in this game. On the surface, if you’re just reading his box score in a vacuum, the eight targets look great. In reality, he saw just 11.8% target share . Further complicating this situation, Tyler Higbee returned to the field this week after a multi-week absence due to a lung injury. He saw seven targets of his own. 

What Did We Learn? If there is any hype on Everett this week, don’t buy into it. This was a fluke. Goff is not going to throw 68 times every week which is apparently what is required for Everett to post a reasonable fantasy score. Higbee is the lead tight end on this team so if you were going to take a shot on any Rams TE that’s where I would go. But frankly, neither of these guys are worth a look in any formats.  

Austin Hooper, ATL: 9 receptions, 130 yards    

Here’s what I said about Hooper after week one:

I’m not ready to buy in this season after one solid performance. For starters, let’s not forget that Atlanta had to play in catch up mode all game with Minnesota jumping out to a big lead. Hooper saw nine targets, second to only Julio Jones who saw 11, but Matt Ryan also had to throw the ball 46 times in this one. The Vikings were also 30th in DVOA against the tight end position last season and did very little to address that in the off-season. I’m more inclined to be excited about playing tight ends against the Vikings in the future than I am about Hooper himself.

It might be time to take my “L” here. Hooper is currently fantasy’s number three tight end and he’s seen 9, 6, 7, and 11 targets through the first four weeks. He continues to be a favorite target of Matt Ryan and is heavily involved in this offense. What I wasn’t anticipating is the Falcons constantly having to play from behind. But with their defense playing so poorly, they’ve mainly been in negative game scripts (as we discussed earlier) which has led to extra pass attempts for Matt Ryan and extra targets filtered to Hooper.

What Did We Learn? Hooper needs to be taken seriously at this point. Through four weeks, he’s a top three tight end. Up next? The Texans who have been a pass funnel defense up to this point and will likely force Matt Ryan into heavy attempts yet again, which should continue to help out Hooper. After Houston? Arizona.   

Millionaire Maker In Review

In this section we'll take a look at the winning "milly maker" lineup with a focus on players selected, ownership, and roster construction. I'll switch back and forth between DraftKings and FanDuel.

If you stack a game that finishes with 95 total points, chances are pretty good you’re going to win a lot of money. If you combine that stack with Nick Chubb going off for 165 yards and three touchdowns then you’re going to win ALL the money. That’s exactly what happened to DraftKings user “fourdouble” who took down the $1M first place price with a score of 266.28. Let’s take a look at his lineup:

The one off pieces in this roster surrounding the three man Rams stack are a work of art. They took advantage of so many overlooked situations to make their way to the top of the leaderboard. There was a ton of buzz around the Seattle/Arizona game but everyone was talking about the passing attacks. Nobody talked about the run games. Not for nothing, but Arizona has essentially all but abandoned the run at this point and David Johnson is basically a pure receiver now. He was the most overlooked receiver in this match up. Chris Godwin had two monster games, then posts a dud while Mike Evans gets his, and suddenly now Godwin is bad at football again? Apparently that’s how the field felt considering he was just 0.7% owned on Sunday and finished with 12 receptions for 172 yards and 2 TD. We talked about Courtland Sutton already and how consistent he’s been and how much target share he’s commanding. Combine that with the late news that Jalen Ramsey would be in active for the game and Sutton’s stock should have sky rocketed. They ate the Dissly chalk, but it tasted amazing, and why not? Tight ends against the Cardinals right? Finally, the Patriots defense is as elite as it gets. They are number one in rush defense and pass defense DVOA and have only given up one offensive touchdown this season. Even on the road, where we normally avoid defenses, they are in play.   

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