By: Greg Landry | LineStar Chat: @glandry | Twitter: @GP_Landry

Welcome to NFL Takeaways! An important, and often overlooked, foundation of any DFS process is taking a look back at the previous slate and honestly assessing how we did. What did we get right? What did we get wrong? How can I learn from this and improve next week? This will be a weekly newsletter series with that focus in mind.

Make sure you catch the Monday NFL Review Podcast with Joe and Chris!

Subscribe now wherever you listen to podcasts!

iTunes | Google Podcasts | Spotify | iHeartRADIO | Stitcher | YouTube 

I fully expected to wake up Monday morning reading headlines about Adam Gase being fired. I’m honestly surprised this didn’t happen. When you lose to (and now have the same record as) a team who is openly trading away whatever talent it has (and accepting salary dumps) in order to amass future draft capital while you spent serious money in the offseason trying to field a competitive team – that probably means it’s time for a change. Even worse, you fired your defensive minded coach in Todd Bowles to bring in the “quarterback whisperer” in Adam Gase and your franchise quarterback appears to be getting worse under his guidance. Darnold now has thrown six touchdowns and nine interceptions and owns a passer rating of 70.5 – ahead of only Luke Falk and Josh Rosen and behind players like Andy Dalton (just lost his job), Mitchell Trubisky (about to lose his job), Eli Manning (lost his job), and Joe Flacco (went on IR because he was about to lose his job). After this embarrassing performance I think it’s pretty safe to say we can cross all Jets players instantly off our lists when it comes to future DFS slates.

Let's take a look at week nine's top scorers from a fantasy standpoint using FanDuel scoring this week:

What Did We Learn?

Here we'll focus on a couple players at each position who stood out (both good and bad) and identify if there's any actionable information we can use when building our rosters going forward.

Quarterbacks

Brian Hoyer, IND: 17/26, 168 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT

It wasn’t pretty at times and obviously the outcome of the game isn’t what the Colts were hoping for but Hoyer still played well considering he had to enter mid-game. The biggest concern was even behind an excellent offensive line he still took four sacks and lost a fumble. The Colts have not yet ruled out Brissett, who suffered a MCL sprain, but if he does end up missing some time they could do a lot worse than Hoyer as their plan B considering he’s been in the league a long time, has plenty of starting experience, and played alongside Tom Brady for several seasons. In fact, it may even be smart for the Colts to give Brissett a week off considering they have a very winnable match up this week against the Dolphins. I have a TON more faith in Hoyer, with a week to prepare as the starter, and a strong coaching staff around him than I do in Sam Darnold who just failed in this same match up, looks completely lost right now, and has no support from his coaches whatsoever. Hoyer will be on the streaming radar and a cheap punt QB in DFS this week.

Russell Wilson, SEA: 29/43, 378 yards, 5 TDs

Yes, I realize I write about Wilson almost every week but how could you not? The game script forced Wilson to the air, something Seattle would prefer not to do, and he came through in a big way. Against the top ranked rushing defense, it wasn’t a total surprise that Chris Carson had some trouble getting going and required Wilson to do more with his arm than usual. I actually wanted to talk about Wilson though because of the pattern that is happening with opposing quarterbacks against Tampa Bay. Tampa is such an aggressive offense just letting Winston sling it all day long that it typically boosts the number of plays for the opposing offense and forces them to go to the air. If we look at the last five quarterbacks to face Tampa Bay, we have:

• Ryan Tannehill: 21/33, 193 yards, 3 TD

• Kyle Allen: 20/32, 227 yards 2 TD

• Teddy Bridgewater: 26/34, 314 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT

• Jared Goff: 45/68(!), 517 yard, 2 TD, 3 INT

• Daniel Jones: 23/36, 336 yards, 2 TD

During that same span, Winston has the following pass attempts: 44, 43, 54, 27, 41, 37. Also, during that same span, games the Buccaneers are involved in have finished with the following total points scored: 74, 50, 63, 55, 95, 63. What’s the point of all this? Games involving the Buccaneers have a high probability of turning into a shootout as Bruce Arians appears to be perfectly fine letting Winston throw the ball all over the place (and make mistakes along the way). With the best one-two punch combo in the NFL (Evans/Godwin) they are able to put up a ton of points and force their opponent to do the same. Look for the air raid offense of the Cardinals to put up points this coming week. Kyler Murray should be considered one of the top QBs on that slate (along with Winston although his floor is lower).

Running Backs

Josh Jacobs, OAK: 28 carries, 120 yards, 2 TD

The Oakland Raiders are a .500 football team, currently sit in second place, and are in the playoff hunt. Not too shabby for a team who lost their best player before the season even started. Coach Gruden has the Raiders playing hard, Derek Carr looks much more like the player who signed a massive contract a couple of seasons ago, and rookie Josh Jacobs looks like the real deal. As much as I like Jacobs, we need to keep in mind that game script is critical to his success and will need to be considered before deciding to pay his salary in DFS. If we take a look at games in which the Raiders lost or trailed throughout, Jacobs had the following carries: 12, 10, 21, and 15. If we look at the games in which the Raiders won, he had carries of: 23, 26, 17, and 28. He’s averaging three targets per game. Using our eight game sample, if you expect the Raiders to fall behind, you can expect somewhere between 15-20 touches for Jacobs. If you expect the Raiders to control then you’re looking at more like 25+ touches. This can make him an interesting "start or fade" option depending how you expect the game to play out and what the field is planning to do. Up next, the Raiders will take on the Chargers who rank 24th in rush defense DVOA and I believe Oakland can hang with (especially at home). If playing the Thursday to Monday slate, I think you can consider Jacobs depending on salary.

Jaylen Samuels, PIT: 8 carries, 10 yards, 13 receptions, 73 yards

The Pittsburgh backfield is the gift that keeps on giving. It doesn’t matter who they start back there. Go back to the Le'Veon Bell days and then how seamlessly they transitioned to James Conner, and now Jaylen Samuels is proving he can be productive in this offense when given the opportunity. Regardless of who is there, the Steelers are going to give them the ball. Obviously the rushing wasn’t pretty with only 10 yards on eight carries but the pass game involvement was massive with 13 catches on 13 targets. Since Mason Rudolph refuses to push the ball downfield, it's important that he and Samuels were on the same page so he could serve as the safety blanket. There were a lot of check downs (Rudolph only averaged 5.5 average intended air yards) but he also had several screens designed to get him the ball in space. If Conner misses more time, look for Samuels to once again be heavily involved in the passing game, making him a preferred target on PPR sites.

Wide Receivers

Robby Anderson, NYJ: 2 receptions, 33 yards

I don’t know what’s dumber – the fact that I thought a Jets skill position player would put up a decent stat line or the fact that I’m probably going to chase here one last time (I’ll explain). I was all over Anderson this week (as were many) as this was as good of a match up as it gets against a Dolphins secondary that ranked dead last in pass defense DVOA and 25th in adjusted sack rate (5.3%) according to Football Outsiders. Theoretically, Darnold should have had time to throw and allow the deeper pass routes Anderson runs to develop. Even worse, the Dolphins were without Xavien Howard which should have made this an even easier task. Unfortunately, as I already ranted about earlier, Darnold is regressing quickly into a check down machine which is rendering Anderson to be completely useless – even in the best of match ups. Unfortunately, because I’m an idiot and apparently like lighting money on fire, I am planning to go back to the well here one last time. Nobody will go back to Anderson after this performance after he burned quite a few people. But they get another excellent match up against the Giants this week who are 28th in pass defense DVOA (watching them get burned right now on Monday Night Football.) With Gase’s job completely on the line and Darnold needing to show some improvement rather quickly, I think there’s a chance they could try to get more aggressive in this one. I'm going to chase once more here despite everything I said. It only takes one deep ball for Anderson to pay off and his ownership and salary should plummet after this game. If you're joining me on this train wreck this week, don't say I didn't warn you.

Mike Williams, LAC: 3 receptions, 111 yards

This is a guy we need to keep buying in the second half of the season. On limited targets this past week he still managed to put up 111 yards. On the season, he’s seventh among wide receivers with 15.2 average targeted air yards and he owns 28.4% of his team’s overall air yards. Since missing a game in week four, Williams has seen 13, 10, 6, 6, and 5 targets in his last five games, giving him a solid target floor and ceiling. The new look Chargers, without Ken Whisenhunt as their offensive coordinator, have said they want to increase the pace and run the ball more. They were true to their word this week as this was arguably the offense's best performance all season. If they can get the run game going (which looked much better in this game) it should set them up to take the occasional deep shot each week in order to keep the defense on their toes. This gives Williams a good chance of breaking a few slates down the stretch. Further adding to Williams' appeal is his red zone usage, as he currently sits fourth in the league with 13 red zone targets.

Tight Ends

Noah Fant, DEN: 3 receptions, 115 yards, 1 TD

We talked last week about Fant seeing an uptick in usage with Emmanuel Sanders out of the picture now and he did not disappoint. Even better, he was able to show off some of his athleticism in this game (something the tight end position lacks as a whole) by turning a short crossing route into a 75 yard touchdown. If he has the opportunity to get the ball in his hands he can make big things happen, which makes him very intriguing at a position that is very thin for fantasy purposes. Unfortunately, he’s still tied to the Broncos offense, which looked much better under Brandon Allen (12/20, 193 yards, 2 TD) but will undoubtedly take their share of lumps and struggle to put up points. The Broncos have a bye this week so perhaps that’s just enough time for the hype on Fant to fade a little so we can consider him for DFS purposes as a punt GPP option in week 11.

Mike Gesicki, MIA: 6 receptions, 95 yards

I don’t want to overreact to one game, but there are reasons we need to pay attention. Preston Williams is now on IR with a torn ACL. This frees up quite a few targets, as Williams had 60 of them through the first nine weeks of the season and owned 33% of Miami’s air yards. Furthermore, Mark Walton, who had emerged as the lead back in Miami after they traded Kenyan Drake, was suspended for the next for games by the NFL yesterday. This leaves Miami laughably thin at running back with Kalen Ballage set to take over after he had fallen out of favor behind both Walton and Drake this season. Considering Miami’s likely negative game scripts every week already and now how brutal they are at the running back position, they literally might have to throw the ball on every down. With the Dolphins looking like they will stick with Ryan Fitzpatrick who is competent enough to move this offense, this could clear a path to heavy targets for Gesicki moving forward. Any player from Miami comes with a lot of risk but Gesicki did have a lot of hype around him coming out of the draft and combine and this could be his first real opportunity for him to start to emerge. He should absolutely be on your radar.

Millionaire Maker In Review

In this section we'll take a look at the winning "milly maker" lineup with a focus on players selected, ownership, and roster construction. I'll switch back and forth between DraftKings and FanDuel.

We did NOT have a four man game stack this week. This is the first winning lineup in several weeks which didn’t include a three man stack from one team and then running it back with a member of the opposing team. Unsurprisingly, this user was heavy on some pieces from Tampa Bay/Seattle, which was expected to be the highest scoring game on this slate and did not disappoint. As we talked about earlier, the Buccaneers aggressive style makes the opposing team have to open things up in order to keep pace. This leads to fantasy goodness more often than not. Let’s take a look at this winning lineup from username: Richarzard who scored 269.32 points!

What else can we say about Russell Wilson? If you can afford him and you believe Seattle will be forced to throw then he’s the best quarterback on the board every week right now. His biggest risk is if Seattle is going to control the game (like they did against Atlanta) and Wilson is only asked to throw 20 times which the Seahawks are perfectly happy with. Game script will be everything when deciding on Wilson for your lineups.

No surprises at running back. CMC is not a free square (he’s very expensive) but he’s worth it. How high do we think his salary needs to get before we consider fading? $12K? $13K? Jaylen Samuels was a free square with nobody else on the depth chart behind him he was in for a monster workload at a very cheap price tag. Even in large field tournaments you had to plug him in. People way too often try to overthink these spots from a "game theory" perspective. Take the free points and find other places to make your roster different.

Tyler Lockett had a great match up but his targets have been inconsistent on a team that prefers to run the ball first. Coming into this game he had seen targets of 4, 4, 5, 7, and 6 over his last five games. $7500 was a hefty price tag to pay for someone only seeing that many looks per game. But if you assumed Seattle would be force to go to the air against the Bucs very difficult run defense, then it was reasonable to assume Lockett would see a boost in targets as well. I don’t think any of us expected 18 targets! Mike Evans was risky because it can be sometimes difficult to pinpoint whether he or Godwin will have the big game. I played them together this week hoping I could capture all the passing game work in this offense and limit the risk if only one of them had a strong outing while capturing all the upside if they both went off. This user rolled with Evans only, who had yet another monster game (and 18 targets of his own) and it paid off. Finally, they topped off the receivers with Preston Williams. That Jets/Dolphins game had some fantasy appeal despite being a very ugly match up. With the majority of the field leaning toward Davante Parker (who has scored more often than Parker) and the two of them having very similar target market shares it was smart to pivot to the lower owned Williams.

At tight end and flex we already highlighted both of these players. Fant was a strong punt option this week after seeing his targets spike the week prior in his first game without Emmanuel Sanders. It was a worthy gamble at his price point at a thin position and it paid off. The biggest risk was whether or not we truly believed Brandon Allen would be an upgrade over Joe Flacco. He certainly looks like it after one game. At the flex spot Mike Williams, again as discussed, was the ultimate buy low this week with the amount of air yards he’s been targeted on. It was only a matter of time until he broke some plays loose. If the Chargers are going to play a bit faster and get the run game going, it should continue to open up opportunities for Williams down the field.

Finally, defense. There was really nothing to love at defense this week. The Bills seemed like the most obvious choice against Dwayne Haskins but they were expensive in a week where value was tough to come by. This was a good week to fill in your defense last and leave yourself enough money to end up somewhere in the middle of the salary range and then choose a defense with the best match up (preferably at home). The Steelers are a pretty aggressive defense that can get after the quarterback and made a fine choice this week even in a tougher match up against the Colts who do well at limiting mistakes (didn’t hurt that Jacoby Brissett had to leave the game).

🚨 Get 3 Free Months of LineStar Premium 🚨

Get 3-months of LineStar Premium for new users to SuperDraft who deposit/play $10!

Terms: Partnership offers do NOT renew. See SuperDraft landing page for full terms and conditions. Must be a new user to SuperDraft and deposit and play a minimum of $10 to qualify. If you have an existing LineStar Premium subscription you get a Hat/Tee/Pen combo instead of the 3-months.