By: Greg Landry | LineStar Chat: @glandry | Twitter: @GP_Landry

Welcome back to LineStar NFL Takeaways! For those of you new to the community here, this article is published every Tuesday and takes a position by position look at several players whose fantasy performance stood out (both good and bad) and what this might mean in the fantasy landscape as we start to prepare for the week ahead.

Four weeks of the NFL season are complete which is an important milestone for the fantasy football season. At this point, we have enough of a sample size where we can make some educated assumptions about coaching tendencies, how teams will perform in certain matchups, and how touches will be distributed. We certainly don’t know everything and we’ll still be surprised or caught off guard throughout the season but we have a pretty good idea now about which teams will be competitive, which players are heading toward a big season, which ones are going to disappoint, and even which rookies may be regular contributors. Let’s take a look at the headline of each division a quarter of the way through the season:

AFC East: Cam Newton is back and the Patriots are going to be competitive in the “post Brady” era but the road to the division title looks like it will go through Buffalo,

AFC North: This may be the most interesting division in football. Ravens are still legitimate, the Cleveland Browns have scored 30+ points in three straight and are 3-1, the Steelers are healthy on offense and as dangerous as ever on defense. And while the Bengals won’t compete for the division this season, Joe Burrow looks like the real deal in the early going.

AFC South: Houston is wasting Deshaun Watson in his prime and it’s an absolute disgrace (I wrote this line before they fired Bill O’Brien, so I guess they agreed!)

AFC West: The Kansas City Chiefs are still the team to beat and may very well defend their title.

NFC East: A complete joke.

NFC North: Aaron Rodgers is back and Green Bay will compete for the NFC title

NFC South: The Patriots' streak of division titles might be in trouble, but Tom Brady looks like he’ll continue his.

NFC West: Let Russ cook.

Before we jump into this week’s performances, this was a wake-up call for the league that COVID-19 still poses a very real threat. After getting through the first few weeks relatively unscathed, this week proved to be quite a different story, needing to scramble and adjust games and schedules. If you’re going to be serious about playing DFS this season and profiting, you need to make sure you have time carved out on Sunday morning to make adjustments. Players are going to get scratched, games are going to get moved, it could get ugly and you need to have plan B and plan C ready to go.

What Did We Learn?

Here we'll focus on some players at each position who stood out (both good and bad) and identify if there's any actionable information we can use when building our rosters going forward.

Quarterbacks

Ryan Fitzpatrick, MIA: 29/45, 315 yards, 2 INT

This was SO frustrating to watch. I was heavily invested in the Miami passing attack this week (yes it felt as gross as it sounds). They continually were able to move the ball between the 20s, as evidenced by Fitzpatrick’s 315 yards passing, but they had to settle for field goal, after field goal, after field goal, and then an awful interception at the end of the game where it looked like Miami was planning to make it interesting. I’m highlighting this not because I think you need to pay attention to Miami going forward, but instead because the Seahawks’ continue to be involved in game environments we are going to want exposure to. Seattle has now allowed 25 points (506 yards of offense) to Atlanta, 30 points (464 yards of offense) to New England, 31 points (522 yards of offense) to Dallas, and 23 points (415 yards of offense) to Miami. With the Seahawks heavily leaning on the pass and having shorter time of possession, opposing offenses are averaging 71 plays per game against them (77, 70,70, and 68) through the first four weeks of the season. The more plays on offense, the more opportunities for fantasy production. Unless Seattle suddenly goes back to their run-heavy ways of the past (I don’t see this happening with how well Wilson is playing) you’re going to want pieces of both sides of their games. The Vikings are up next.

Justin Herbert, LAC: 20/25, 290 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT

An admirable performance for the young rookie out of Oregon. On the road, traveling west to east for a 1pm start, against a tough Tampa Bay defense, with the greatest quarterback of all time on the other side is enough pressure to rattle anyone. On top of that, the Chargers were without Mike Williams in this game and then lost Austin Ekeler early in the first half. Despite everything going against him, Herbert hung in tough in this game and had a chance to tie (or possibly win) at the end before throwing an interception. I don’t see how the Chargers turn back to Tyrod Taylor at this point. It’s really unfortunate, considering how Taylor got hurt. But with how well Herbert is already playing in the early going, I think you continue to allow him to gain valuable experience and develop chemistry with this offense for the long term. The Chargers have a TON to like on both offense and defense and Herbert gives them a boost that should only get better as he progresses.

Dak Prescott, DAL: 41/58, 502 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT

Similar to Seattle and Atlanta, Dallas is another team that is forcing incredible game environments to start the season with their terrible play on defense and their awesome offense. Through four games this season:

· Dak has thrown 39, 47, 57, and 58 pass attempts.

· Dak has thrown for 450 yards or more in three of four games.

· Dak has completed at LEAST 64% of his passes in all four games despite the incredibly high attempts.

· The Cowboys' opponents have run 72, 72, 70, and 73 plays.

· The Cowboys have run 69, 81, 80, and 79 plays.

· The Cowboys have produced 380, 570, 522, and and 566 yards of total offense.

If the first four weeks of the season have taught us anything, concentrating your weekly roster construction around the Seahawks, Falcons, and Cowboys games will be a profitable move more often than not. All of these teams put up a ton of points, none of these teams play defense, and all of these teams run a ton of plays while forcing a ton of opponent plays.

Running Backs

Mike Davis, CAR: 16 carries, 84 yards 1 TD, 5 receptions, 27 yards

Not as productive as Christian McCaffrey of course, but Davis is leaving it all out on the field, doing his best to fill CMC’s shoes. I expected him to get his fair share of touches and the goal line work, giving at least some fantasy appeal, but the full workload (including the passing game work) has been a welcomed surprise. In three starts now, Davis has 21 catches on 23 targets for 146 yards and a touchdown to go along with 29 carries for 130 yards and another touchdown. This Panthers’ offense has a lot of firepower and first year coach Matt Rhule is starting to figure out how to maximize it. Carolina has another favorable matchup next week against the winless Atlanta Falcons, who historically have struggled with pass catching running backs, and came into week four 17th in DVOA against the run before getting smashed by Aaron Jones last night (5 catches on 5 targets for 40 yards and a touchdown along with 15 carries for 71 yards). Davis looks primed for another good outing.

D’Ernest Johnson, CLE: 13 carries, 95 yards

This was one of the biggest surprises of the week and it’s certainly going to leave us with some questions now that we know Nick Chubb is going to miss time. I'm not saying Kareem Hunt isn't appealing but I am saying I don't think it's as "cut and dry" as the fantasy community is going to make it out to be. The Browns LOVE to run the football. They have faith in all their running backs. And, most importantly, it's working for them right now. As much as we would love for Hunt to suddenly become a three down back, Johnson actually ended up leading the team in carries in this game and I don't think he's going to just suddenly go away next week. If Hunt is suddenly chalk, you may want to consider some exposure to Johnson as a leverage play in case he leads in carries again. It's worth noting, even with the split carries, Hunt got the goal line work and scored twice so he's, without question, the better play from a floor/ceiling combination. But when we factor in price, is Johnson going to take away just enough carries to make Hunt too much of a risk? The news around this situation is worth monitoring this week to see if we can get any insight in how they plan to use their running backs.

Antonio Gibson, WAS: 13 carries, 46 yards, 1 TD, 4 receptions, 82 yards

I’ve been avoiding the hype on Gibson to start the season. I understand why he was getting attention after being pushed to the top of the depth chart in the offseason following the release of Derrius Guice. Gibson was a college wide receiver with tons of speed converted to a running back. In this day in age, with pass catching running backs (and PPR fantasy scoring) taking over the league, Gibson has the skill set to be a factor in this offense. The problem, of course, is “this offense” which lacks weapons, has an unproven and inexperienced quarterback and a new head coach in Ron Rivera (who I’m a huge fan of) that hasn’t had enough time to figure out how to put it together. After a soft schedule to start the season against the Eagles, Browns and Cardinals, this was their first true test against a tough Baltimore defense. Gibson stayed consistent, getting into the end zone for the third straight game while also catching four passes (on five targets) and getting loose on one for forty yards. It’s difficult to get excited about much in Washington right now but if Gibson is going to maintain his 10-15 carries, 3-5 targets, plus goal line work and continue to have a bargain price tag, he’s someone we’ll need to have on our radar, especially considering his upcoming schedule. After a challenging matchup with the Rams in week five, Washington’s next six games are against the Giants (twice), the Cowboys (twice), the Bengals and the Lions. Gibson could be a source of value in some very favorable matchups.

Wide Receivers

DJ Chark, JAX: 8 receptions, 95 yards, 2 TD

Let’s not sleep on this guy despite his slow start. Gardner Minshew is far from perfect as a quarterback but he’s capable of moving the ball and he’s not afraid to make throws, even if they sometimes lead to mistakes. He and Chark developed a lot of chemistry last season and this game is finally what we wanted to see. Despite missing week three, Chark is still seeing a healthy 20% of his team’s targeted air yards, with a solid 13.7 ADOT, is second in the league (among receivers with at least 10 targets) with a 93.7% catch rate, and is tied for third among receivers with three touchdowns.

Tim Patrick, DEN: 6 receptions, 113 yards, 1 TD

The Broncos offense is worth monitoring to see who emerges as the top receiving option in the wake of Courtland Sutton’s season ending injury. Tim Patrick seized his opportunity on Thursday, catching six of seven targets for 113 yards and finding the end zone. Now, it’s just one week, and it was against the Jets, and they have a difficult matchup against the Patriots coming up so we’ll likely be looking elsewhere in week five rather than overreacting to this performance. With that said, we suddenly have Sutton out long term and we have Fant, who we believe may miss a week or two, which leaves us with a very narrow distribution of targets between Jeudy and Patrick as the primary receiving weapons. As the season goes on, I would expect Jerry Jeudy to take over. Denver didn’t spend the 15th overall pick on him only to lose opportunities to an undrafted third year player.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB: 4 receptions, 45 yards

I had 100% MVS on all my Sunday to Monday rosters, hoping that the Packers would hold out Adams for one more week in a prime matchup against the Falcons. I got my wish, but it didn't help me. Despite Valdes-Scantling being the only active wide receiver last night with a catch in his career, he managed just four catches for 45 scoreless yards. The Packers leaned on their running backs and tight ends to get the job done. With Green Bay on a bye this week, and Adams returning after that, this offense is likely going to lean on Adams and Jones as much as possible. I would focus any roster construction around those guys and leave the ancillary pieces of this offense alone.

Tight Ends

OJ Howard, TB: 3 receptions, 50 yards, 1 TD

Howard went down with an injury in this game, which is believed to be a ruptured achilles. If confirmed, he would miss the rest of the season. “Gronk-Mania” will likely be refueled by the fantasy community as a result of this injury. In my opinion, this is a trap. If you recall last season, everyone thought Howard would be a top five tight end and he was hardly used in the passing game at all. Bruce Arians doesn’t have a history of involving his tight ends in the offense the way Gronkowski was involved when he was with the Patriots. Plus, Tampa Bay has a third very capable tight end in Cameron Brate (who also caught a touchdown in this game) who is likely going to be the true beneficiary of Howard’s injury. I honestly don’t expect much to change with Gronk at all. Instead, it will be more Brate, but the two of them will likely just eat into each other from a fantasy perspective. Neither of them are useful for fantasy purposes unless you want to take a guess on which one will fall into the end zone each week, but you’re throwing darts here.

Greg Olsen, SEA: 5 receptions, 35 yards

Really scraping the bottom of the barrel for production at tight end. Olsen is worth pointing out, as this was his second consecutive game with five receptions and at least six targets (he had seven on Sunday). He also had a couple of red zone looks, although they weren’t able to convert. We’ve talked several times about how much we like the Seahawks pass-heavy, fast-paced attack. We know the bulk of the targets are going to go through Lockett and Metcalf, but that should still leave enough leftover targets for Olsen to get some notable looks, especially for what his price tag is likely to be. Again, there is zero floor here, but if he can scrape together 4-5 catches per game and score a touchdown you will be happy with the ROI. You could do worse than a veteran like Olsen on a really productive offense as a punt play.

Evan Engram, NYG: 6 receptions, 35 yards

Engram is interesting. We know he has the talent but he’s on a very unproductive offense at the moment. Still, the opportunity is there at least enough that you can still consider him each week. He’s seen at least seven targets in three of four games including 10 targets on Sunday. The yardage has been low and the Giants are not scoring touchdowns at the moment, so for now this is DraftKings only. On FanDuel, where it’s only .5 point PPR and touchdowns are more important, pretty much anyone on the Giants offense is a stay away at the moment, as this was their second consecutive week without finding pay dirt. Right now, unless you are paying up for Kittle, Kelce, or Andrews, your only hope at tight end is looking for the players who are still seeing opportunities. Engram is still commanding a strong target share so don't completely write him off just because he's on the Giants. This is a really thin position. Every target counts.

Key Injuries To Watch

In this section we'll take a look at some key injuries and what the potential impact may be for fantasy purposes.

Note: As a reminder, I’m writing this on Monday, so the news below may change depending on when you read this. Use the NFL beat writers twitter feed (which is directly inside your LineStar account) as well as the news page to get up to speed.

Sam Darnold, QB, New York Jets

AC joint sprain in his throwing shoulder. The Jets have said if he is unable to throw at Wednesday’s practice he will miss the game this week. I understand how guys like Crowder or Herndon can have some appeal with clear paths to targets but if Darnold isn’t throwing the football you can pretty much forget it.

Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns

Chubb is going to miss six weeks with an MCL sprain. As we highlighted earlier, Kareem Hunt SHOULD take over here but we should be cautious about how involved D’Ernest Johnson might be after what we saw on Sunday. The Browns want to run.

Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers

He’s going on injured reserve with a serious hamstring injury and will miss four to six weeks. Joshua Kelley, who has been involved already, should see a bump in touches while Justin Jackson will also benefit here.

OJ Howard, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

It’s believed to be a ruptured achilles. We talked about this earlier in the article already. I don't think this suddenly means Gronk will return to his old form. If anything, this is a boost to Brate.

LeSean McCoy, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

If McCoy and Fournette are out, Ronald Jones is suddenly the lone man in this once crowded backfield.

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