By: Greg Landry | LineStar Chat: @glandry | Twitter: @GP_Landry

Welcome to NFL Takeaways! An important, and often overlooked, foundation of any DFS process is taking a look back at the previous slate and honestly assessing how we did. What did we get right? What did we get wrong? How can I learn from this and improve next week? This will be a weekly newsletter series with that focus in mind.

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DFS is not rigged. I know you scored 230 points and didn’t cash this week. It was just one of those weeks where a few players, who also happened to be fairly popular, went off for huge performances. If you didn’t have at least two of Christian McCaffrey, Michael Thomas, Aaron Jones, and Will Fuller then chances are you were dead in the water. It happens. It’s painful when you’re on the wrong side of it. Two quick takeaways from a process standpoint:

1) Bankroll management, bankroll management, bankroll management. Don’t be the guy who thinks your lineup is the “nuts” on one particular week and go all in on your bankroll. You will lose all your money playing this way over time (trust me, I was this guy in the past). Find a percent of your budget each week that you feel comfortable with and stick with it no matter how good you feel about your lineup. You just never know what’s going to happen. You need to create a process that’s repeatable so that even when you lose one week you’re not depositing more money the next.

2) Give yourself more outs by playing different slates. Don’t always just play the main slate. I did not have Fuller or Thomas in my main slate lineup yesterday (I’m a cash game and single entry player and I build one lineup per slate) as I paid down at wide receiver and paid up at running back (Zeke, obviously, did not work out). But I also play the early only, afternoon only, primetime, all showdowns, etc. So, although I got my ass handed to me on the main slates Sunday, I did really well on multiple showdown slates as well as the afternoon-only slate and still wound up with a profitable weekend.

With that said, it was another wild week in the NFL with plenty of surprises – both good and bad. Let’s take a look at the week five top scores from a DraftKings standpoint:

What Did We Learn?

Here we'll focus on a few players at each position who stood out (both good and bad) and identify if there's any actionable information we can use when building our rosters going forward.

Quarterbacks

Deshaun Watson, HOU: 28/33, 426 yards, 5 TD

Watson was perfect. Literally. He finished with a 158.3 passer rating. In addition to the five touchdown passes he added 47 yards on the ground, leading to a monster fantasy day. On the season, he’s now thrown 11 touchdowns to just one interception and owns a 69.2% completion rate. All of this while routinely having to make plays with his legs behind one of the worst offensive lines in football. Two takeaways here. First, quarterbacks against the Falcons is likely to be a profitable decision in the long term. Prior to today, the Falcons ranked 27th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks (that’s obviously going to get worse after this performance). Atlanta had allowed Jacoby Brissett (28/37, 310 yards, 0 INT) and Marcus Mariota (18/27, 227 yards, 3 TD) to post massive games in the two weeks prior so this should not have come as a surprise. Up next for the Falcons defense is Kyler Murray and the air raid offense of the Arizona Cardinals. We should have them on our radar. Second, as far as Watson goes, he gets a match up with the Kansas City defense. Don’t read into Jacoby Brissett’s low fantasy performance against the Chiefs this week. The Colts ground game was working perfectly and they just pounded the rock over and over again to preserve their lead and keep Patrick Mahomes off the field. The Texans ground game, or lack thereof, isn’t likely to have as much success, which will force Watson to the air more in a winnable match up.

Lamar Jackson, BAL: 19/28, 161 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT and 14 carries, 70 yards

We talked in this article after week one about dialing back our expectations with Jackson a bit after he destroyed the Miami Dolphins. The last couple of weeks have given us a bit more of a reality check as he’s thrown five interceptions in his last two games. Jackson carries one of the highest floor/ceiling combinations of any player in football. We’ve seen the wide range of outcomes he’s capable of already through five weeks this season. While this was a rather ugly performance, he managed to salvage his day and erase the lack of touchdown production by rushing for an additional 70 yards. As long as he’s adding with his legs, the floor will always be there. And on the days when his arm accuracy is on point, the sky is the limit in terms of ceiling. Up next? The Bengals, who are 22nd in the league in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Outside of an admirable performance in week one against Russell Wilson, the Bengals have faced Garoppolo, Allen, Mason Rudolph, and Murray the past four weeks. I would certainly rank Jackson well ahead of any of them.

Kirk Cousins, MIN: 22/27, 306 yards, 2 TD

This was an encouraging performance from Cousins after a rough start to the season. This is the first time since week eleven of last year he's thrown for over 300 yards. He had the third highest passer rating in week five at 138.6 and the second highest completion rate of the week (behind only Watson) at 81.5%. It was also good to see him throw 27 attempts despite Minnesota being comfortably in control throughout this game. After a strange week of teammates calling each other out and public apologies, this was a step forward for this Vikings’ passing attack. With that said, there is still a lot of uncertainty here and I’m definitely not ready to call this situation “fixed.” First, this game was against a Giants secondary that has been making everyone look good. Second, while Adam Thielen was more involved, Stefon Diggs was on the outside looking in, so I’m sure we will hear more of this drama again this week. Cousins and company get another excellent match up against the poor Eagles secondary in week six. You can definitely consider these guys in GPP formats for that game but I need to see at least another strong performance or two before I would go any further than large field tournament investments.

Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey, CAR: 19 rush, 176 yards, 2 TD, 6 receptions, 61 yards, 1 TD

We already knew how good CMC was so this shouldn’t come as a surprise. My biggest takeaway from this actually came at the end of the game. He was on pace to play 100% of the snaps (again) but there was quite a bit of back and forth late in the fourth quarter (Minshew magic almost happened) which created extra plays on both sides. McCaffrey ended up having to come off the field because he was cramping up during what turned out to be a crucial part of the game. Do the Panthers start to think about ways to give him more breaks going forward? They risk an injury if they try to keep him in there when he’s not 100% but they also aren’t going to want to have to pull him out late in the game, especially when the result is still in question. This will be a situation to monitor. He’s a lock and load every single week for the time being but there is at least a chance the Panthers will try to scale back his snaps after what happened on Sunday. IF this happens, but his price continues to rise because of performances like this, we may eventually get to a point where he’s overpriced. I don’t think this happens anytime soon, so don’t overthink it right now. But again, something to keep an eye on.

Joe Mixon, CIN: 19 rush, 93 yards, 1 reception 16 yards

Season long owners were likely relieved to see Mixon finally eclipse the 100 total yard mark but there is honestly more negative than positive here. For starters, 60 of Mixon’s 93 rushing yards came on the opening drive (8 rushes, 7.5 YPC). He was held to just 33 rushing yards on 11 carries the remainder of the game (3 YPC). Whatever the Cardinals defense missed on that first drive, they were able to easily correct and take Mixon out of the game the rest of the way. He hasn’t seen the end zone since week one and is averaging just 3.66 yards per carry on the season. He’s being given very little room to get anything going behind on offensive line that ranked 31st in adjusted line yards (3.21) coming into week five. The winless Bengals are going to have to abandon the run early and often as illustrated by their 70% pass play rate this season (second highest in the NFL). There are just not many paths to Mixon succeeding. He’s talented enough to break off a big play and put up huge fantasy numbers on his own but figuring out when that might happen will be next to impossible. He’s a deep GPP flier at best for now.

Aaron Jones, GB: 19 carries, 107 yards, 4 TD, 7 receptions, 75 yards

Why does Coach LaFluer want to keep the touches split in this backfield? Honestly, I’m not sure we learned new anything here. We already know he's a talented running back which is why we are so perplexed as to why his usage is constantly limited. He led Green Bay in everything on Sunday. Rushing, receiving, targets, touchdowns, you name it. With how hot he was, they should have just given Rodgers the night off and let Jones pass it too. Through five weeks of the season, Jones has already equaled his touchdown count from all of last season. He was fun to watch on Sunday, but we have to remember this rushing usage was the result of Jamaal Williams being out and the passing game usage was because DaVante Adams was out. Once those guys come back it will be tough to trust Jones at what will likely be an elevated price after this week but still splitting touches with Williams and giving up passing game work to Adams. Unless this is finally the performance that gets him the usage he deserves, Jones will be an easy fade at undoubtedly elevated ownership and salary in week six (unless Adams and Williams miss again).

Wide Receivers

Michael Thomas, NO: 11 receptions, 182 yards, 2 TD

So much for Thomas’s production dropping off without Drew Brees. This was the second most yards in a single game in his career. The two knocks on Thomas without Brees were 1) the Saints would likely lean on the run more and 2) when they did pass, Bridgewater would be less efficient. So far, both of these are looking like myths. Thomas is second in the league this season with 55 targets (only behind Cooper Kupp – 63). He also has an outrageous 81.8% catch rate and owns a 45.3% targeted air yards market share. Bridgewater has settled in now that he has a couple of starts under his belt and he’s (wisely) leaning on his top players more often than not. With his incredibly high efficiency, Thomas hasn’t skipped a beat despite the loss of his regular quarterback. Continue to fire him up in all formats as a WR1, provided the match-up and salary make sense.

DJ Chark, JAX: 8 receptions, 164 yards, 2 TD

Speaking of players who haven’t skipped a beat without their starting quarterback, DJ Chark has emerged as the top receiving weapon for the Jaguars. This was a title many expected Dede Westbrook to take this season, but it’s instead been Chark making the leap. According to NextGen stats, Chark is tenth in average cushion (7.2), eighth in percentage of team’s targeted air yards (38.78%), fourth in yards (485), and second in the league with five touchdowns. Chark is a focal point of this offense (only behind Leonard Fournette) and Gardner Minshew isn’t having a negative impact on their ability to put up fantasy (or real life) production at all. The opportunity and talent are clearly here so as long as the price and match-up make sense week to week, you can consider Chark in all formats on a weekly basis. Unfortunately, up next is the Saints, so we should expect them to deploy Marshon Lattimore in shadow coverage on the Jaguars top receiver. Could be a sneaky week to fade Chark (when nobody else does) and jump on Westbrook.

Mike Evans, TB: 0 receptions, 0 yards, 0 TD

Speaking of Lattimore, don’t read into this performance from Evans too much. There’s some history here when Evans has been shadowed by him in the past and aside from one game, he hasn’t had much success. While zero receptions is a bit of a surprise, Evans having a poor game shouldn’t be a total shock. Prior to this week against Lattimore, Evans had the following stat lines:

• 1 reception, 13 yards (six targets)

• 5 receptions, 55 yards (13 targets)

• 7 receptions, 147 yards, 1 TD (seven targets)

• 4 receptions, 86 yards (six targets)

Now we can add:

• 0 receptions, 0 yards (three targets)

Ironically, that one huge game was with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback in the very first game of last season that turned into a massive shootout. Bottom line? Evans struggles against Lattimore, as do many receivers who face him. There’s nothing to see here. Be ready to buy low on Evans in week six as the masses will likely overreact to this performance and flock to Chris Godwin who had another strong day (7/125/2).

Tight Ends

Gerald Everett, LAR: 7 receptions, 136 yards

I’m sticking to my original thoughts here. In last week’s article, coming off an eight target performance, I said we should ignore Everett, as it was a game where Goff needed to drop back 68 times. The eight targets appeared to be an outlier caused by the number of passes in general, as he only saw 11.8% market share in that game. This week, on Thursday night, Everett saw a career high 11 targets of which he hauled in seven of them for 136 yards. But again, Goff had to drop back and attempt 49 passes. Obviously, that’s fewer than the 68 the week before, but that’s still not within his typical range of passes, which means Everett’s looks are still being a bit skewed. This means I am still not buying Everett. If you want to chase these two games I can’t fault you. Tight end is a gross position in general and we’ll take all the production we can get. I will say it’s encouraging to see Everett see eight more targets than Tyler Higbee and I do think it’s possible he’s surpassed him on the depth chart but my concern is both of these games are due to their shootout based nature where Goff had to throw a lot more times than usual. The offense is designed to concentrate around Gurley, Kupp, Woods, and Cooks and on a game where Goff is throwing in a normal range (30-35 times) I don’t see Everett continuing to see this many targets.

Bengals Tight Ends: 6 receptions, 80 yards

Eifert chalk failed. I can’t say I’m surprised. Something about “Tyler Eifert chalk week” felt very much like a trap even if it was against the Cardinals. Will Dissly chalk the week before also felt like a trap but it ended up paying off. The streak had to end at some point. Eifert is just not the same player he was a few years ago prior to all his injury battles. Combined, however, the Bengals tight ends actually did fine other than no touchdowns. They were targeted nine times and hauled in six catches for 80 yards (Uzomah had 5 catches for 66 yards). Eifert even saw an end zone target but it was a poor throw behind him from Dalton. He is simply not someone who can be relied upon even in a cake match up. He’s not going to be a focal point of this offense on his own. The biggest takeaway here is the Cardinals still allowed a high number of targets, receptions, and yardage to the tight end position, although it was split between two players which made things difficult from a fantasy perspective. Arizona is still very much worth targeting with tight ends. Up next? Austin Hooper.

OJ Howard, TB: 1 reception, 10 yards

Push the panic button. The preseason hype around Howard is not coming to fruition. We bet on the talent of the player but we underestimated the history of the tight end position in the Bruce Arians' offense. We assumed he would find a way to get Howard involved because of his talent and his breakout performance the season before but that simply isn’t the case. He’s primarily being used as a blocker and isn’t getting involved in the passing game at all. He now has just 11 receptions (14 targets) for 141 scoreless yards through five games. We can’t trust him in DFS as anything more than a deep flier in MME play and if you drafted him in season long, hopefully you’ve already been working on plan B. He’s rotting on my bench on multiple teams and I’m honestly considering cutting my losses and just dropping him.

Millionaire Maker In Review

In this section we'll take a look at the winning "milly maker" lineup with a focus on players selected, ownership, and roster construction. I'll switch back and forth between DraftKings and FanDuel.

Wow, 331.86 points. That is an incredible score. Congratulations to “thechek182” for putting up a monster and taking the $1M first place prize on DraftKings this week. Let’s look at his lineup.

A game that didn’t get as much hype as the Texans/Falcons match up but had clear shootout potential inside the Superdome was the Buccaneers and Saints. With Teddy Bridgewater running the show for now, the “Coors Field of the NFL” hasn’t been getting as much attention as it normally does. This user took full advantage of that, running a three man Saints stack with Bridgewater, Thomas, and Cook and then bringing it back with Godwin. All four of those players crushed, with Cook being the sharpest play of the bunch. Tight end was ugly this week, Eifert chalk felt like a trap as we discussed earlier, pivoting to Cook who had quietly seen six or more targets in two of his last three games turned out to be a very smart move. McCaffrey was popular, but he always is, and it doesn’t matter because he’s just so good and he gets so much usage that he carries the possibility of a “have to have it” score almost every week. Fuller chalk felt sketchy, as he’s normally a player we’d prefer to target when nobody else is on him but it paid off here against a Falcons secondary that can’t stop anything. The Eagles were a great pivot off the more expensive Patriots once we learned Sam Darnold was out. A high school team defense against Luke Falk would probably produce positive fantasy points. Last, but certainly not least, Aaron Jones was the play of the week. The running back position was LOADED with McCaffrey, Zeke, Cook, David Johnson, and Leonard Fournette all in excellent spots. Aaron Jones went completely overlooked by everyone despite the Packers being without DaVante Adams and Jamaal Williams – meaning this entire offense would have to run through Jones. That’s exactly what happened and he absolutely crushed at his very low salary.

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