By: Greg Landry | LineStar Chat: @glandry | Twitter: @GP_Landry

Welcome back to LineStar NFL Takeaways! For those of you new to the community here, this article is published every Tuesday and takes a position by position look at several players whose fantasy performance stood out (both good and bad) and what this might mean in the fantasy landscape as we start to prepare for the week ahead.

I’m just going to go ahead and throw myself under the bus here. Even though I constantly talk in this article about not overreacting to small sample sizes, my reaction last week to the San Francisco 49ers was a perfect example of doing exactly that. The 49ers took a beating at home against the Miami Dolphins, their second loss in a row. After just two bad games I was ready to completely toss them aside, despite being the defending NFC Champions, and having Kyle Shanahan as their coach. I’m not sure why I allowed myself to overreact the way I did. Benching Jimmy Garoppolo seemed like a move normally made by a desperate team that is losing control and grasping at straws. Perhaps they really did just see something they didn’t like about his injured ankle and decided it was better not to risk a re-injury. Or maybe I’m simply not giving Miami enough credit, as they turned around and shut out the Jets this weekend. I know it's the Jets, but shutouts in the NFL are no easy feat. Not to mention the Miami defense is giving up less than 18 points per game on average while the offense is putting up over 26.

My point is; this is where the edge still exists in DFS. Everyone, apparently myself included, can get caught up in recent results without seeing the big picture. Look for opportunities where the public is swearing off a certain player or team, then dig into the numbers and ask yourself if you think it's real or not. You're going to come across a few players in today's article (Matt Ryan, AJ Green, etc) that the public was already starting to give up on before their performances this past week. If you can keep yourself from falling into this, you'll have better results over the long haul.

What Did We Learn?

Here we'll focus on some players at each position who stood out (both good and bad) and identify if there's any actionable information we can use when building our rosters going forward.

Quarterbacks

Matt Ryan, ATL: 30/40, 371 yards, 4 TD

What a difference Julio makes? With talk of Matt Ryan being washed up and losing arm strength following an 0-5 start to the season, the firing of Dan Quinn and the return of Julio Jones seemed to make a world of difference in this one. The interesting piece of this stat line that I wanted to highlight is how much the Falcons passed even while jumping out to a big lead. This game actually set up for the Falcons to lean on the run more, with Minnesota ranked 8th in DVOA against the pass but 27th against the run. Atlanta had a clear advantage at the line of scrimmage in this one, jumped out to a big lead, and still threw the ball 40 times. I would have thought, considering they were winless before this game, when they got out to a lead they would have run the ball a bit more to kill the clock and preserve their first win of the season. Instead, they stayed aggressive and continued to let Ryan air it out. A vote of confidence from the Falcons new head coach to his veteran quarterback who has been under the microscope recently? Time will tell. But we can safely conclude that Atlanta will continue to be a pass-heavy team regardless of game script.

Baker Mayfield, CLE: 10/18, 119 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT

Not that this was a surprise, but the Steelers exposed the Browns this week. If they can’t run the ball and they fall behind, they will be in trouble. Through the first five weeks, the Browns rushing attack is 4th in DVOA and 1st in yards per carry. When Cleveland has the running game working for them and they use it to set up the passing game, then Mayfield is at his best (which isn’t great but serviceable). But when they need to lean on the passing game to stay competitive because they’ve either fallen behind and have to go into comeback mode or the opposing defense has simply taken away the run, he’s prone to mistakes, as we saw in this one. The Steelers executed their defensive game plan perfectly and put it on film for all to see. If you stop Cleveland’s rushing attack, they are very vulnerable and beatable. Stay away from Cleveland unless you expect a positive game script.

Kyler Murray, AZ: 9/24, 188 yards, 2 TD, 10 carries, 74 yards 1 TD

The Cowboys defense continues to make opposing offenses look like superstars. It also didn't help that Zeke coughed up the ball twice in this one and gave the Arizona offense some short fields they were able to capitalize on. Murray wasn't even that great in this game, his 38% completion rate is abysmal, but one of those connections was an 80 yard bomb for a touchdown to Christian Kirk and that's really all the Cardinals needed. Murray also made up for his lack of passing production with another 74 yards on the ground and a rushing touchdown. A perfect example of why we love targeting quarterbacks who can get it done with their arm and their legs. Continue to attack the Cowboys defense. They are making everyone who plays them look good.

Running Backs

Derrick Henry, TEN: 22 carries, 212 yards, 2 TD

I'll cut right to the chase here. Teams are destroying the Texans on the ground.

• Week 1 vs. KC: CEH had 25 carries for 138 yards and 1 TD

• Week 2 vs. Baltimore: The Ravens collectively rushed 37 times for 230 yards, and 1 TD.

• Week 3 vs. Pittsburgh: James Connor had 18 carries, for 109, and 1 TD

• Week 4 vs. Minnesota: Dalvin Cook had 27 carries for 130 yards, and 2 TDs

James Robinson for Jacksonville in week 5 was the one exception because they fell behind and needed to go pass heavy. Coming into this game, Houston ranked 26th in DVOA against the run and 31st in yards per carry. This obviously isn’t going to help their rankings. Look for teams to continue running all over them going forward. Next up is Aaron Jones and the Packers.

Ronald Jones, TB: 23 carries, 113 yards, 2 TD, 2 receptions, 8 yards

Finally, we are starting to get a glimpse of why Tampa Bay has hung on to RoJo all these years despite a total lack of production. It’s going to be interesting to see what they do with Leonard Fournette once healthy. Jones now has three consecutive 100 yard games, after accomplishing this feat just ONCE previously in his career, and to top it off he scored twice in this one. He’s now seen over 20 touches in three straight and at least 19 touches in four of six games this season. Despite all this positive news, I’m having a really hard time saying I’m all in here because 1) It’s Ronald Jones and he’s broken our hearts before, 2) a Bruce Arians offense tends to be unpredictable, and 3) Leonard Fournette is still lurking and they didn’t sign him to sit on the bench once healthy. Approach with caution.

David Montgomery, CHI: 19 carries, 58 yards, 4 receptions, 39 yards

I had this week circled as the week I would get myself some exposure to Montgomery. Coming off of two very difficult matchups against the Indy and Tampa Bay run defenses (4th in rush defense DVOA and 3rd in rush defense DOVA, respectively) I was hoping for big things against a Carolina defense that gets beat up (29th in rush defense DVOA) by opposing running attacks. Since the Tarik Cohen injury, this is Montgomery’s backfield now with around 20+ touches most weeks (15-20 carries and 3-5 targets per game). This gives him a path to a solid floor, although ceiling is the issue as Montgomery isn’t doing much with these touches. He’s averaging under four yards per carry and has only found the end zone one time on the ground so far this season. This makes him a tough sell in tournaments, even with this workload, on either site. For cash games, on DraftKings, with the passing game work he’s seeing at his price, the floor is there. On FanDuel, without the touchdowns, and the half point PPR, he’s less appealing. I was hoping this week he’d break out in an easier matchup and at least put him in “matchup dependent” status from a tournament perspective but this doesn’t seem to be the case.

Wide Receivers

AJ Green, CIN: 8 receptions, 96 yards

The squeaky wheel gets the grease perhaps? Green voiced his frustration with his role earlier this week but said he wanted to remain with the Bengals. After seeing just six targets with one reception over the past two weeks, he led the team in targets this week with 11. Exciting rookie Tee Higgins (6/125 on 8 targets) still appears to be the preferred option here but it was encouraging to see Green get more involved. One thing is for sure, despite having Joe Mixon, the Bengals continue to struggle with consistently establishing the run, which will force them to continue to be pass heavy. Burrow is 1st in the NFL in pass attempts this season and 2nd in completions. If Green can stay healthy and develop some chemistry with his new quarterback, he could return to the explosive form we haven’t seen in the past few seasons. I’d put him in the “stock is rising” category.

JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT: 2 receptions, 6 yards

Okay, so here is another good example of a potential overreaction trap. Even with Diontae Johnson missing another game, Smith-Schuster only managed two receptions on four targets for six yards. The caveat here, that many people may overlook, is that the Steelers only had to throw the ball 22 times in this game. Everyone’s new shiny toy, Chase Claypool, also only had four targets, although he was much more productive with four receptions for 72 yards. James Washington also stepped up with a big day of his own, catching four passes for 68 yards and finding the end zone. This is a buy low opportunity if you can stomach the risk, as Smith-Schuster’s price should start falling off a cliff. We know the talent is there and we know that Pittsburgh loves to go pass heavy. The ceiling is still intact for him to have big games, but the floor appears to be much less stable than what we are used to. This takes him out of the “lock and load'' type of player he’s been in previous seasons and puts him into more of a GPP-only option, but one with the potential to break the slate.

Tight Ends

Trey Burton, IND: 4 receptions, 58 yards, 1 TD, 1 carry, 1 yard, 1 TD

After years of disappointing results and injuries with the Bears, Burton has found a new home in Indy. While I would hardly declare him a top fantasy tight end after a few weeks, the change of scenery seems to be doing him some good. Over the past few weeks, he’s emerged as a favorite target for Phillip Rivers, with 16 targets and 11 receptions. Even more encouraging this week was his involvement in the red zone, with both a touchdown reception and a surprising rushing touchdown in this game. We know Rivers has a tendency to use his tight ends in the red zone (as we learned from years of Antonio Gates highlights) so this sets up Burton to make an impact. This is still a bit of an unstable situation, however, as Mo Allie-Cox missed this game with a knee injury which pushed Burton into additional opportunities. After the Colts bye week, assuming Cox comes back from his injury, we’ll need to monitor how the usage shakes out.

Anthony Firkser, TEN: 8 receptions, 113, yards, 1 TD

This one is pretty straightforward, as it was aided by the Jonnu Smith injury (although Firkser caught the touchdown before Smith had to leave the game). Should Smith have to miss any time, which looks unlikely as they are calling the injury minor, Firkser would instantly become a top option for fantasy at the tight end position. Ryan Tannehill loves to throw to his tight ends in the red zone (Smith has five touchdown catches on the season) and the Titans are currently putting up 32.8 points per game. The perfect situation for fantasy production, particularly at a weak position. Speaking of the Titans, is Ryan Tannehill…gulp...an MVP candidate? Or maybe this is 2020 messing with us some more?

Key Injuries To Watch

In this section we'll take a look at some key injuries and what the potential impact may be for fantasy purposes.

Note: As a reminder, I’m writing this on Monday, so the news below may change depending on when you read this. Use the NFL beat writers twitter feed (which is directly inside your LineStar account) as well as the news page to get up to speed.

Mark Ingram, RB, Baltimore Ravens

Ingram suffered an ankle injury and was ruled out for the remainder of the game. From a fantasy standpoint, we know Baltimore loves to spread the ball around so I don’t see this being a situation where suddenly one person gets the lion’s share of the carries (Ingram wasn’t getting many to begin with). Expect his touches to get spread out among Edwards, Dobbins, and of course Lamar Jackson.

DeVante Parker, WR, Miami Dolphins

Parker has a groin injury. Should he miss time, we should expect Preston Williams and Mike Gesicki to see more looks. A more narrow distribution on a pass heavy team like Miami could be an interesting situation to watch. Miami is on a bye this week which will give him time to recover.

Devin Bush, LB, Pittsburgh Steelers

Since this is a fantasy football article, we typically only discuss offensive injuries but this season ending ACL tear to Bush is notable. This will leave a huge hole in one of the league's top defenses. I’m not saying the Steelers are suddenly attackable but they are definitely less scary.

Tyler Eifert, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars

James O'Shaughnessy would fill in if Eifert misses time. This position hasn’t been very valuable in this offense but if O’Shaughnessy is suddenly going to be playing a heavy snap share and running a lot of passing routes for a bargain bin price, he could be worth a look at a very thin position.

Miles Sanders, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

Sanders will miss one to two weeks with a knee injury. It sounds like he avoided a serious injury but will still require some time to recover. Boston Scott will be the starter this week against the Giants. The Eagles should be able to stay competitive against the Giants, despite all the injuries, which gives Scott a chance to be productive.

Zach Ertz, TE, Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles cannot stay healthy. They have a makeshift offensive line, they are missing several of their starting pass catchers, they lose Miles Sanders and now Ertz has a high ankle injury. As much as I want to avoid this team because of how bad they have looked, all these injuries keep drawing us back in. There are a lot of targets up for grabs on this team if the regular players continue missing time.

Jonnu Smith, TE, Tennessee Titans

Smith left the game with an ankle injury, was considered questionable to return, but never saw the field again. Schefter reported the Titans are calling the injury “minor.” If he does miss time, as we already discussed, Anthony Firkser will be a popular play this week.

Raheem Mostert, RB, San Francisco 49ers

Speaking of teams that can’t stay healthy, just a couple of weeks removed from his MCL sprain, Mostert left this game early. Tevin Coleman is already on IR and Jeff Wilson missed Sunday’s game with a calf injury. I’d love to see the 49ers give a three down workload to Jerrick McKinnon but they are, understandably, hesitant to do so given his injury history as well. This means JaMycal Hasty could be a name worth monitoring.

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