By: Greg Landry | LineStar Chat: @glandry | Twitter: @GP_Landry

Welcome back to LineStar NFL Takeaways! For those of you new to the community here, this article is published every Tuesday and takes a position by position look at several players whose fantasy performance stood out (both good and bad) and what this might mean in the fantasy landscape as we start to prepare for the week ahead.

Just when you thought 2020 couldn’t get any stranger, along comes week one of the 2020 NFL season which included:

1) A Jimmy Graham touchdown

2) Mitchell Trubisky leading a Bears comeback (21 points in the 4th quarter!)

3) A team in Washington called “Football Team” coming back from 17-0 to win 27-17

4) A Jaguars team, who is not hiding their attempt to tank this season, beating the heavily favored Colts

5) A Patriots quarterback leading the team in rushing

6) A Bills quarterback throwing for 300 yards for the first time since 2014

Before we dive in, please remember it has been ONE WEEK. It’s important you don’t overreact, especially this season where these players didn’t even start getting together until July and there were no preseason games. We are going to learn a lot about these teams over the first four weeks of the year, so while we can start to make some educated guesses based on what we saw this past weekend, nothing should be considered definitive based on such a small sample size.

What Did We Learn?

Here we'll focus on some players at each position who stood out (both good and bad) and identify if there's any actionable information we can use when building our rosters going forward.

Quarterbacks

Cam Newton, New England Patriots

15/19, 155 yards, 15 carries, 75 yards, 2 TD

No glaring red flags for the former MVP despite his first game back. He was efficient through the air, completing 79% of his passes and was the Patriots leading rusher. It almost felt like, at times, I was watching the Ravens offense with lots of designed runs for Cam and limiting him to under 20 pass attempts (although Lamar Jackson looked outstanding throwing the ball on Sunday). This is likely bad news for the other offensive pieces on this team (from a fantasy perspective). The ball was spread around a lot with no player receiving more than seven targets and no player (not named Cam) receiving more than 10 carries. Even undrafted rookie J.J Taylor got four carries (compared to five for James White) and one target (compared to three for White and zero for Burkhead). For the time being, Cam is really the only fantasy asset we are going to be able to consistently rely on in a Patriots uniform. If trying to pair him with any of his play makers, you are essentially taking shots in the dark.

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

22/46, 312 yards, 2 TD, 14 carries, 57 yards, 1 TD

Similar to Cam, Josh Allen also led his team in carries, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns, with Singletary and Moss getting just nine carries each. Unlike Cam, Allen also aired it out in this game with 46 pass attempts, becoming the first 300 yard passer in a Bills uniform since 2014 (Tyrod Taylor did it once, in 2016, but needed overtime to get there). Also unlike Cam, Allen had two fumbles (both lost) so he needs to work on taking care of the ball. Either way, the new-look Bills passed their first test with flying colors. Diggs (8/86), Brown (6/70/1), and Beasley (4/58) were all involved with at least seven targets each. I’ll admit, the Jets were not the toughest test, but this Bills offense looks poised to put up a fight with New England for the AFC East. Josh Allen will be a primary target at quarterback most weeks as he continues to improve his passing efficiency and remains one of the better running quarterbacks in football. You can pair him with any of his top receivers. We likely will need to give this rushing attack a little more time to shake out before making any definitive statements.

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

32/44, 364 yards, 4 TD

Remember when everyone left Aaron Rodgers for dead in the fantasy community? Get ready for those same people who are going to be back tracking those statements after this one. Rodgers was fantastic in this game, going 32/44 for 364 yards and 4 TDs. Perhaps another off season with Coach LaFleur allowed these guys to figure out how to find another gear in this offense? This was on the road against a difficult Minnesota defense no less. As usual, Rodgers had absolutely no issue with peppering his trusted top weapon, Davante Adams, who finished with a whopping 17 targets (14/156/2). Despite the massive game from Adams, Rodgers managed to get others involved as well, including MVS (4/96/1 on six targets) and Allen Lazard (4/63/1 on four targets). Let’s temper our expectations a bit, as this game did turn into a shootout, with 77 total points scored. So it’s not likely we will see 40+ pass attempts from Rodgers all the time. But, it’s a reminder of what Rodgers can do with the ball in his hands. I’ll be buying the Green Bay offense as much as I can.

Running Backs

Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders

25 carries, 93 yards, 3 TD, 4 receptions, 46 yards

Saquon in 2018, CMC in 2019, Josh Jacobs in 2020? It’s been one game but this was a really encouraging performance by the second year running back. It’s not just the three rushing touchdowns. In fact, 25 carries for only 93 yards isn’t really that impressive. What stands out here is six targets and four receptions for 46 yards. All off season (even back into last season) Coach Gruden has hyped increased passing game usage for Jacobs. But, behind the scenes, the Raiders signed Jalen Richard to an extension and even brought in Theo Riddick for some time during camp to compete for a passing down role. It was one of the reasons I was hesitant to pull the trigger on Jacobs at his ADP in season long. If he’s going to suddenly be a 30 touch player (25 carries and 4-6 targets) most weeks, then he’s a guy we may need to move salary around in DFS to make sure we are able to plug him in.

Nick Chubb: 10 carries, 60 yards, 1 reception, 6 yards

Kareem Hunt: 13 carries, 72 yards, 4 receptions, 9 yards

Ugh, this is exactly what anyone who invested a first round pick in Nick Chubb didn’t want to see. Kareem Hunt out touched Chubb in this one 17-11. Hunt had 13 carries to Chubb’s 10 and Hunt also saw six targets (four receptions) to just one target (one reception) for Chubb. Reports out of camp this season were raving that Hunt looked like 2018 Kareem Hunt with the Chiefs. There are a few different angles we can consider here: 1) Chubb lost a fumble, so perhaps getting Hunt more involved was a punishment, 2) This was game script, with Hunt being the better pass catcher and the Browns being down big essentially the whole game, this could have led to Hunt being more involved, 3) the Browns view both players pretty equally and this is going to be a 50/50 timeshare moving forward, basically causing both players to be useless to us from a fantasy perspective. Given how sloppy the Browns looked in week one, I’m likely staying away from this situation until we get some more clarity.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs

25 carries, 138 yards, 1 TD

Going back to the Thursday night game, I was pretty surprised to see Andy Reid feed his rookie running back the way he did. Reid has never been someone who typically embraces the “bell cow role” and reports out of camp were that Darrel Williams would still be involved (7 carries for 23 yards) to help “ease” CEH (sorry, I'm not typing out his name every time) in. With Damian Williams opting out due to COVID this season, Reid seems content putting the workload on his rookie’s shoulders. There are a couple of risks here though: 1) Trying to predict what Andy Reid will do each week can have consequences. Reid is a really good coach and his game plans will be opponent specific, so just because he gave CEH 25 carries in week one does not mean he’ll do it every week. It’s certainly encouraging, but it’s not guaranteed. 2) CEH was not involved in the passing game (two targets and zero catches) which does limit his ceiling a bit. You’re going to need him to find pay dirt to pay off what will likely be a high salary (think Derrick Henry) should this workload continue.

Wide Receivers

Odell Beckham Jr., Cleveland Browns

3 receptions, 22 yards

Back to the Browns for a minute because, while I’m staying away from the running situation, I’m planning to continue attacking here. A player like OBJ, who has made jaw dropping catches time and time again, needs to be given the benefit of the doubt after last season. A new team, a new quarterback, and inexperienced coach. There was a lot working against him last year. The Browns have a ton of talent but the offense simply under performed as a whole. Fast forward to 2020 and, sigh, this was certainly not the start of the bounce back campaign we were looking for. So, why even bother bringing him up? Just to declare he’s no longer a fantasy asset? No, the opposite actually. DFS is all about embracing the uncertainty, especially in GPP play. While everyone jumps off the OBJ train next week I’ll be jumping on. He had ten targets in this game. Mayfield is clearly looking his way as often as he can. Is it risky? Yup. Will I lose some money? Maybe. But does he have the talent to break the slate especially if his ownership falls below 5%? You know the answer to that. If the general fantasy community starts writing off OBJ after one game this season (I don’t care what happened last year) I will be buying in and hoping the tides turn in his favor sooner than later.

Sammy Watkins, Kansas City Chiefs

7 receptions, 82 yards, 1 TD

Any skill position player on this Kansas City offense has the potential to be dangerous (in a good way). Watching season long and best ball drafts, the public seemed convinced that Mecole Hardman was going to step into that number three role in this Kansas City passing attack. After one week, it would appear they were wrong – by a lot. Not only did Watkins lead the team in targets (with nine) but Hardman only had one. Does that mean this will happen every week? No. Houston was clearly doing their best to limit Hill and Kelce in this one which likely forced some extra targets Watkins’ way. But, if Watkins can stay healthy this season, it’s clear he’ll have a role in this offense. With the Chiefs top weapons likely being chalk most weeks, Watkins could be a nice leverage play and some less expensive exposure to this team that should put up some serious points once again. Same goes for Hardman and Robinson, although their floors will be significantly lower with very little reliable volume to speak of. In fact, with the public probably reacting to this week and jumping on Watkins, this could be a really good week to get yourself some GPP exposure to Hardman or Robinson and hope one of them pops off for a big day.

Robby Anderson, Carolina Panthers

6 receptions, 115 yards, 1 TD

I’m a Robby Anderson guy. I think he’s an undervalued talent that was wasting away on a Jets team that can’t get out of their own way. I was happy when he switched teams to get a fresh start and I’m even happier to see him receive eight targets in his first game as a Panther. It’s important to remember that Anderson is the field stretcher, so his results will be a bit less consistent but if he’s in the neighborhood of 6-8 targets most weeks he’ll have a chance to break one loose (like he did Sunday, a 75 yard TD) more often than not. The Panthers have some talented receivers with DJ Moore (4/54 on 9 targets) and Curtis Samuel (5/38 on 8 targets) and despite the loss, they still managed to put up 30 points in one of the higher scoring games of the week. I’ll be buying shares of this offense early, hoping for Bridgewater and Anderson’s connection to continue developing. DJ Moore is still going to be the stronger play most weeks but I’ll definitely take shots on Anderson when it makes sense.

Tight Ends

Chris Herndon, New York Jets

6 receptions, 37 yards

It’s difficult to get excited about the Jets in real life right now, but from a fantasy perspective there is some appeal. One of the benefits of their lack of weapons on offense is it will lead to a narrow distribution of targets which will give a few of these guys a locked in floor (although lack of scoring may limit their ceiling). Remember this guy? Injuries have caused him to fall off the fantasy radar but in 2018 he was one of Sam Darnold’s favorite targets. Obviously, this particular stat line isn’t pretty, with just 37 yards receiving but the seven targets is encouraging at a position where it can often be difficult to find players with a clear path to seven or more targets each week (unless you want to pay for Kelce and Kittle all the time). This was a difficult match up against a tough Bills defense on the road. Better days will be ahead for this group.

Noah Fant, Denver Broncos

5 receptions, 81 yards, 1 TD

The hype on second year tight end Noah Fant, who started to break out a bit toward the end of last season, did not disappoint. Lock looked Fant’s way a total of six times, completing five of them, and getting into the end zone as well. What makes this a little tough is that the Broncos were without Courtland Sutton last night, so target distribution may be a bit different once he returns. However, I expect that to impact Tim Patrick, Daesean Hamilton, and Jerry Jeudy more than it would Fant. He has the ability to be in that second echelon of tight ends, below Kelce and Kittle, but someone who is likely to see steady targets most weeks and be a red zone threat.

Defense

I’m not going to spend a ton of time on defense, given that it’s the most volatile position in fantasy, but if something stands out to me that is relevant related to defenses I’ll take a minute to point it out.

Washington Football Team

8 sacks, 13 tackles for loss, 2 interceptions  

The biggest question here is was this the result of the strong front seven in Washington or the very weak (and injured) offensive line of Philadelphia? Wentz looked like a deer in the headlights several times, holding on to the ball for far too long. I’m planning to continue to attack the Eagles with defenses until they figure out how to fix their offensive line. Ron Rivera also showed yesterday he’s not going to be afraid to get aggressive, so teams with weaker offensive lines or quarterbacks who melt under pressure should be attacked with Washington’s defense.

Key Injuries To Watch

In this section we'll take a look at some key injuries and what the potential impact may be for fantasy purposes.

Marlon Mack, RB, Indianapolis Colts

It is now confirmed that Marlon Mack suffered a torn achilles and will miss the 2020 season. The Colts running back situation is a little less muddy, however, I’m not convinced that Jonathan Taylor will step directly into a featured role here. Both he and Nyheim Hines saw pretty even work, with Taylor getting nine carries and six targets while Hines received seven carries and eight targets. Whichever one of these guys emerges will be a good value but with much of the fantasy community already assuming it will be Taylor, I may go heavier on Hines next week.

Le’Veon Bell, RB, New York Jets

If Bell’s hamstring causes him to miss any time, you can pretty much declare the Jets offense dead. With all due respect to Frank Gore, he’s not going to take on a full workload and he’s well past his prime at this point. With defenses not needing to worry about the running game anymore, they can drop extra players back in coverage and force Sam Darnold to beat them through the air. With Darnold not progressing as well as expected (looking at you Adam Gase) and with a lack of receiving weapons, this is going to spell trouble for the Jets offense.

Blake Jarwin, TE, Dallas Cowboys  

Jarwin went down holding his knee with a non-contact injury, which has now been confirmed what we all feared: an ACL tear. It's likely this will lead to a few more targets for Cooper, Gallup, and Lamb. There’s not another tight end on the Cowboys roster that would have any kind of fantasy relevance.

Duke Johnson, RB, Houston Texans  

Duke Johnson left the game with an ankle injury and did not return. Should he miss time, it would lead to David Johnson taking on the lion’s share of the running back touches.

DeVante Parker, WR, Miami Dolphins

It’s a hamstring injury, the same he was having issues with during the off season. If he’s shut down for a couple of weeks, look for Preston Williams to see as many targets as he can handle.

Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints

The severity of the injury is unclear and the Saints play on Monday night this week which will give him some extra time to rest. Should he miss time, Emmanuel Sanders will likely step into the top receiving role for Drew Brees. Jared Cook and Alvin Kamara would see some extra targets as well.

David Njoku, TE, Cleveland Browns

Njoku was placed on injured reserve today and will miss the next few games. This should push more looks to Austin Hooper who is more than capable of taking on a full workload. It’s just whether or not you want to invest in the Browns offense that’s the bigger question.

James Connor, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers  

Connor left the game with an ankle injury and did not return. Benny Snell proceeded to take over lead back duties with 19 carries for a career high 113 yards. Snell and Jaylen Samuels also each had a target in the passing game. If Connor misses any time, it will be the Benny Snell show in Pittsburgh.

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