By: Greg Landry | LineStar Chat: @glandry | Twitter: @GP_Landry

Welcome to NFL Takeaways! An important, and often overlooked, foundation of any DFS process is taking a look back at the previous slate and honestly assessing how we did. What did we get right? What did we get wrong? How can I learn from this and improve next week? This will be a weekly newsletter series with that focus in mind.

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I hope you read the NFL Strategy Guide that @NitroDFS put out a couple of weeks ago. Specifically, I hope you read the section on bankroll management and paid attention to it. If this week wasn’t a perfect example of why it’s so important to properly manage your bankroll in DFS then I don’t know what is. Here are your top five receiving performances of the week:

Most of these lists are made up of players we didn't see coming, particularly with wide receivers. We should expect the first few weeks of the NFL season to bring us some surprises as it typically takes until about week four before we have enough data and film to truly start to understand how these teams are shaping up. But, even expecting the unexpected didn’t prepare me for some of what happened today. This slate was nuts. The best way to sum it up is that Kurt Cousins had only 10 pass attempts and scored a rushing touchdown on six carries while Lamar Jackson threw five touchdowns but only carried the ball three times. There's something wrong there. Regardless of what you read below, there is one very important lesson to be taken away from this article. Do not overreact to one game.  

What Did We Learn?

Here we'll focus on a few players at each position who stood out (both good and bad) and identify if there's any actionable information we can use when building our rosters going forward.

Quarterbacks

Matthew Stafford, DET: 27/45, 385 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INT

There are two points I want to make regarding Stafford. First, he’s basically been left for dead by much of the fantasy community. He plays in an offense that would ultimately like to slow the pace down, run the ball, and play good defense (none of which happened yesterday). Second, he played last season with a broken back. How good do you expect the guy to be under those circumstances? He won’t be an every-week option by any stretch but he’ll have appealing match ups from time to time. The Lions showed today they aren’t going to be afraid to air it out if they need to, as displayed by his 45 pass attempts (granted they played a full overtime period with this game ending in a tie).

You know which quarterback will have streaming appeal? The one playing the Cardinals. As expected, this secondary was awful without Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu. In particular, they were very weak in the short areas of the field where Danny Amendola (7/104/1) and rookie tight end T.J Hockenson (6/131/1) couldn’t be stopped. Arizona’s next match up is against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens.

What Did We Learn? Stafford is healthy and although I wouldn't want to rely on him week to week, we can keep our eye on him as a "buy low" player with upside and some decent weapons in the right match up if you're looking to punt quarterback. We'll also want to invest in the offenses playing against the Cardinals moving forward, as the defense was awful and Kyler Murray showed in the fourth quarter and overtime he's ready to push that offense forward creating potential shootout opportunities throughout the season.

Lamar Jackson, BAL: 17/20, 324 yards, 5 TDs, 0 INT

Speaking of offense against the Cardinals, Lamar Jackson will welcome them to town next week after he dismantled Miami with five touchdown passes while only throwing 20 attempts. He didn’t play the fourth quarter. He had a perfect 158.3 passer rating, an 85% completion rate, and the highest average completed air yards of the week at 11. Don’t expect this from Jackson each week. This efficiency won’t be sustainable. In fact, he had a 60.2% expected completion percentage, the largest gap of any week one quarterback between actual and expected completion percentage. Despite some obvious regression in passing efficiency, the good news is Jackson did nothing with his legs this week (three carries for six yards). Expect for him to do more on the ground in future weeks. 

What Did We Learn? Jackson is who we think he is. He's a below average pocket passer who will get a boost in plus match ups (the Dolphins are pathetic). Don't expect him to be this good through the air every week but he should make up some of that production on the ground, giving him a solid floor/ceiling combination. Similar to Arizona, we'll want to invest in the offenses against Miami going forward, particularly the running backs, as teams are likely to jump out to big leads and simply run the ball to kill the clock.

Gardner Minshew, JAX: 22/25, 275 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT

Who? The sixth round pick out of Washington State certainly didn’t look like a sixth round pick at all. He had a ridiculous 88% completion rate including completing his first 11 passes in a row. Even his expected completion percentage came in at 71.8%. All of this led to a 122.5 passer rating. Now, it's important to note that I’m highlighting Menshew not because he’ll be in play next week or that I think you should go out and pick him up on your season long waiver wires. I’m highlighting him because the Kansas City defense is still bad and giving up this type of production to Minshew is proof that they did very little in the off-season to fix their issues. The offense facing the Chiefs will be an offense we want to be sure we have exposure to in DFS going forward. Patrick Mahomes and company will push the pace and put a lot of points up on the board forcing the opposing offense to go into attack mode in order to catch up. The Kansas City defense is likely to give up yards and points on a weekly basis. The game involving the Chiefs has a good chance to be the highest scoring game on the slate week in and week out.

What Did We Learn? The Chiefs are still bad at defense. Games stacks involving this team will be something to consider most weeks. On the Jaguars side, with Nick Foles set to miss significant time the offense will be unusable for the foreseeable future.

Running Backs

Chris Carson, SEA: 15 carries, 46 yards, 1 TD | 6 receptions, 35 yards, 1 TD

It wasn’t his most efficient effort at just 3.1 yards per carry (and that includes a long gain of 21 yards) but Carson was clearly ahead of 2018 first round pick Rashaad Penny in this one. Most encouragingly, Pete Carroll stayed true to his word (surprisingly) about Carson getting more involved in the passing game. Carson saw 7 targets in this game (Penny saw zero) and caught six of them for 35 yards and another score. All in all, a total of 21 touches for 81 all-purpose yards and two scores. If Carson can improve the yards per carry number, the preseason hype on him has a chance to be very real. 

What Did We Learn? Carson is very much the RB1 and we know that Seattle loves to run the ball. There is a very narrow distribution of targets on this team giving Carson a legitimate shot at 15-20 carries and 5-7 targets every week. The opportunity and talent are there so he'll be a worthwhile investment most weeks, provided the price and match up make sense.  

Todd Gurley, LAR: 14 carries, 97 yards | 1 reception, 4 yards

Gurley, which proves just how talented he really is, managed to break 100 all-purpose yards despite only 15 touches and a complete lack of involvement in the passing game with just one target. Even more discouraging, he had zero touchdowns. Malcolm Brown saw nearly as many touches as Gurley with 11 and had both rushing touchdowns. There are two schools of thought here. One, the Rams are full of crap, they are very concerned about Gurley’s knee, and this will be his usage for the foreseeable future in an effort to keep him fresh in the postseason. Two, because Gurley was kept in bubble wrap during the preseason, they chose to ease him in and will expand his workload as we get further into the season. I tend to lean toward number two but until we see any consistent usage it will be tough to trust him in anything but GPP formats and hope he breaks off a big play. Don't panic, yet, and keep an eye on his salary.

What Did We Learn? Honestly, not much yet. I wanted to highlight him, as I expect he'll be one of the players the industry overreacts to. I'm not willing to write off someone like Todd Gurley after one week. There's enough talent here to break any slate even with limited opportunities, so he could be an interesting buy-low candidate. I'd expect his workload to increase each week. Approach with caution for now.

Le'Veon Bell, NYJ: 17 carries, 60 yards | 6 receptions, 32 yards, 1 TD

I can’t remember the fantasy community ever being so divided on a player the way it was with Le'Veon Bell this off-season. Will he bounce right back after a year off? Was he just a product of the environment in Pittsburgh or is he really that good? What will his workload look like in New York? He didn’t do anything yesterday to make you regret fading him but if you paid for his salary in DFS (or used an early round pick on him in season long) you weren’t unhappy with the results. The rumors of him losing work to Ty Montgomery early on proved false, as Montgomery saw only two carries and didn’t see a single target in the passing game (granted the Jets played from ahead for most of this game). Meanwhile, Bell jumped right back into a workhorse role with a total of 23 touches including six receptions (on nine targets) in the passing game. He was a lone bright spot on a day where Jets fans watched their team give up a 16 point lead and ultimately lose at home to division rival Buffalo. 

What Did We Learn? His efficiency will take a hit going from one of the better offensive lines in football to the worst (Jets ranked dead last in adjusted line yards last season) but the volume will keep his floor extremely high and give him plenty of opportunities to make a play and reach his ceiling. We know the talent and opportunity are both there so if the match up and salary make sense don't be afraid to pull the trigger here going forward. 

Wide Receivers

Sammy Watkins, KC: 9 receptions, 198 yards, 3 TD

We've always known Watkins had the ability to do something like this after being drafted fourth overall in 2014. We just didn't expect it to take five years before it would happen. The top receiver on the week set a career high with three touchdowns in a game that saw Kansas City put up 40 points against one of the league’s best defenses (maybe?) even without their top playmaker Tyreek Hill. There are two reasons to be excited about Watkins. First, he did quite a bit of his damage even before Hill got hurt including a 68 yard touchdown catch in the first quarter. Even once Hill comes back (which could be several weeks), Watkins will still firmly be in play with a secure role in the league’s best offense (second best offense? The Patriots did not look like a team that needed to add Antonio Brown last night) even if he’s the number three option. There will be plenty of scoring to go around as long as Mahomes is at quarterback. Second, with Hill set to miss significant time with what sounds like a pretty serious injury (he was rushed to the hospital for observation although reports this morning are more positive) Mahomes showed he’s not afraid to give Watkins all the targets he can handle.

What Did We Learn? The Kansas City offense is still good and Patrick Mahomes is virtually unstoppable. The biggest question is how good are they? Is the Jaguars defense a fraud or did the Chiefs just put up 40 points on a strong defense even with their top weapon missing most of the game? Until Jacksonville proves me wrong I will not be afraid to target them in DFS. They took a huge step back last season and it certainly doesn't look like they've figured it out yet. Meanwhile, Watkins will be a weekly option in all formats until Hill returns and even then he'll have plenty of upside in GPPs to be considered.  

Michael Gallup, DAL: 7 receptions, 158 yards, 0 TD

Even with Zeke in the lineup and a healthy Amari Cooper, Gallup led the team in receptions, targets, and yards. He didn’t score, which is a little discouraging on a night that Amari Cooper, Randall Cobb, Blake Jarwin and even Jason freaking Witten all scored touchdowns, but the targets and involvement are certainly encouraging. Following up a 2018 season where he averaged 14 targeted air yards per game but was never quite able to turn those opportunities into any type of production, he had long receptions of 23, 36, and 62 yards in this one, showing that he may be ready to take that next step forward. The Dallas passing attack appears to be something we’ll want to keep investing in going forward.

What Did We Learn? First, Jerry needs to pay Dak. He looked unstoppable in this game. As far as Gallup goes, this is another offense with a pretty narrow distribution of targets with Zeke and Cooper both commanding large shares and Gallup likely getting heavily into the mix most weeks with Randall Cobb and the tight ends soaking up the left over scraps. Gallup should serve as a weekly value option and if he finds a way to carve out a red zone role the sky is the limit here.

TY Hilton, IND: 8 receptions, 87 yards, 2 TD

Andrew who? I’m kidding of course but you have to be encouraged by Brissett’s performance yesterday. Despite the loss, the Colts were in this game from start to finish. They had a monster game on the ground thanks to Marlon Mack (25/174/1) and Brissett went 21/27 for 190 yards and two touchdowns with zero interceptions. Hilton was by far his favorite option with nine targets (Funchess was next with five). The efficiency will no doubt take a hit and his average targeted air yards will drop (11.3 in 2018 versus 7.5 in this game) but Frank Reich will find ways to get his best option open in space and Brissett is competent enough to get the ball to him. 

What Did We Learn? The Colts offense can still score points even without Luck. I admit, the Chargers defense without Derwin James is not the most challenging defense in the league. But one thing we can count on is the Colts coaching staff is smart, they have a fantastic offensive line (second in adjusted sack rate last season - meaning they allowed the second fewest sacks), and Brissett is good at taking care of the ball. Hilton should be a target monster this season with a slightly lower ceiling than in years past but still a very viable option from week to week. Don't be surprised if the Colts still win this division.

Tight Ends

T.J Hockenson, DET: 6 receptions, 131 yards, 1 TD

So much for first year tight ends not having an impact. Hockenson was awesome in this game and looked very much like a player should look who was drafted eighth overall. He did get out snapped by Jesse James but still managed to see nine targets, second on the team, and haul in a touchdown pass, which is encouraging considering James is pretty famous for stealing touchdown opportunities when you least expect it. Hockenson is talented no doubt but I’m not completely sold on his usage after a one game sample. It seems as though Detroit may have found a serious weakness in the Arizona defense considering Danny Amendola, who works in the same areas of the field as Hockenson, also had a monster game.

What Did We Learn? The biggest takeaway here, for the time being, is tight ends and slot receivers against the Cardinals is very likely to be something we’ll want to pay attention to in future weeks. That doesn’t mean I don’t think Hockenson is for real, it just means, especially given the track record of rookie tight ends, I want to see a little more before I’m totally bought in. If he’s chalk next week (which is a real possibility due to recency bias) I’ll definitely be comfortable looking elsewhere. Mark Andrews, who quietly led the Ravens in targets yesterday with eight, faces Arizona next week.

Austin Hooper, ATL: 9 receptions, 77 yards

Hooper has been a guy who lets me down year after year. I feel like every season there is hype on him being the next big tight end and every year it never happens. I’m not ready to buy in this season after one solid performance. For starters, let’s not forget that Atlanta had to play in catch up mode all game with Minnesota jumping out to a big lead. Hooper saw nine targets, second to only Julio Jones who saw 11, but Matt Ryan also had to throw the ball 46 teams in this one. The Vikings were also 30th in DVOA against the tight end position last season and did very little to address that in the off-season. I’m more inclined to be excited about playing tight ends against the Vikings in the future than I am about Hooper himself.

What Did We Learn? Targeting the Vikings with tight ends, provided the tight end has enough opportunity in his own offense, is something we'll want to invest in moving forward. Hooper will no doubt have some worthwhile games but it will be difficult to peg exactly when those will happen. Given the volatility, he's a weekly GPP flier at best if you're looking to punt the position.  

OJ Howard, TB: 4 receptions, 32 yards, 0 TD

Ouch. All the talk of Howard potentially jumping into the top tier of tight ends took a big hit yesterday (and so did many of my season long teams). Jameis Winston was horrendous, going just 20/36 (55.6% completion rate) for 194 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions (two of which were run back for touchdowns). He took his entire team down with him. It was discouraging to say the least for an offense that was expected to take a massive leap forward under new head coach Bruce Arians. Even Chris Godwin, one of the mega chalk plays of the week, had an awful day with just three receptions for 53 yards and managed to save his fantasy performance with a touchdown. Mike Evans finished with just two catches for 28 yards but he looked a bit slow perhaps still recovering from the illness that kept him out of practice this week. Adding insult to injury, Cameron Brate still has a role in this offense that could hurt Howard owners moving forward. Brate had two targets, both in the red zone, and both would have been touchdowns if they hadn't been called back for offensive penalties.

What Did We Learn? Coach Arians has a lot of work to do, so it's important we don't overreact after one week. Don’t panic on Howard, as I still expect this team to get better. They need to figure out how to get Winston to stop turning the ball over so much. Tampa Bay plays on Thursday night in week two and then get the Giants in week three who gave up 7 receptions for 54 yards and two touchdowns to Blake Jarwin and old man Witten yesterday. Howard is likely to be off people's radars in week three after a forgettable performance today and not playing on the main slate next week. Be ready to jump back on him.

Millionaire Maker In Review

In this section we'll take a look at the winning "milly maker" lineup with a focus on players selected, ownership, and roster construction. I'll switch back and forth between DraftKings and FanDuel.

Congratulations to DraftKings user TopCorner for pulling in the first million dollar prize of the 2019 NFL season with a score of 281.36. He narrowly beat out the second place finisher who scored 281.10. Overall, TopCorner entered 23 lineups into this contest. Let’s take a look at the one that brought home all the money:

Typically, in such a large field tournament, you'd expect something completely wild and totally unexpected to set a winning lineup apart from the others. Maybe they have a ton of salary left over or perhaps they have some crazy correlation or onslaught stack nobody else would have thought of. That was not the case here. They used nearly all the salary cap (leaving only $100) and had just a simple QB to WR stack that happened to go completely nuts and have very low ownership. Outside of that, they simply nailed their one off plays across the board. When Odell Beckham Jr. is your lowest scoring player (by 11 fantasy points!) you know you're going to have a good day.

The running backs were very chalky, with Carson (26.7% ownership) McCaffrey (20.2% ownership), and Cook (37% ownership) but they were all in excellent positions for big days. Carson and Cook particularly stood out given their low salaries. No need to get cute avoiding those players, there were plenty of other places to differentiate your lineup. They went fairly chalky at tight end as well (though I expected his ownership to be higher) with Engram who came through with 31.6 fantasy points for just $4.8K salary. The defense they selected was a sharp play. Many players typically write off defenses in games projected to be high scoring right away. Remember, when selecting a defense, you aren't looking for a shutout. It would be nice, but it almost never happens. You're looking for opportunities for the defense to make plays either with sacks or interceptions. A game like the Bucs and 49ers yesterday was the perfect spot to find an upside defense in a game that had a high expected total but also shaky quarterback play.

Let's not bury the lead, however, as Marquise Brown was the clear difference maker who went off for four receptions, 147 yards, and two touchdowns for a total of 33.7 points at just 0.3% ownership! Add that together with Lamar Jackson who threw him those two touchdown passes (along with three others) at just 6.9% ownership and you wind up with a two man stack that combined for 70.26 points for only $6.8K. Not bad.

Overall, this user did a great job of locking in the obvious values at the running back and tight end position and then mixed in some low owned but high upside players at the more volatile wide receiver and defensive spots in order to set themselves apart. They took a shot on a talented, but not well known, player in Marquise Brown as being the number one option in a passing offense that was going overlooked considering the Ravens were expected to get out to a big lead and run the ball. Turns out the Ravens only needed 20 pass attempts (and Brown only needed four catches) to turn someone into a millionaire.

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