By: Greg Landry | LineStar Chat: @glandry | Twitter: @GP_Landry

Welcome to NFL Takeaways! An important, and often overlooked, foundation of any DFS process is taking a look back at the previous slate and honestly assessing how we did. What did we get right? What did we get wrong? How can I learn from this and improve next week? This will be a weekly newsletter series with that focus in mind.

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Can you recall a stranger week in the NFL than the one we just completed? We had two teams favored by over 20 points, several unknown and inexperienced quarterbacks starting for their respective teams, and unfortunately, the consensus number one pick in fantasy football go down with a serious injury that is likely to cost him a good chunk of the season. With three weeks now in the books, we are starting to get a pretty good picture of what these teams’ identities are. We have teams we expected to dominate who are, in fact, dominating (Patriots, Chiefs), surprise teams looking to make a name for themselves (Buffalo, Indy), and utter disappointments (Cleveland, Pittsburgh) that need some serious help. At this point, we have a good sense of usage and how the depth charts stack up so we should be able to do a better job with projections moving forward. Here's what the top skill position players looked like on DraftKings this past week:

What Did We Learn?

Here we'll focus on a few players at each position who stood out (both good and bad) and identify if there's any actionable information we can use when building our rosters going forward.

Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson, SEA: 32/50, 406 yards, 2 TD and 7 rush, 51 yards 2 TD

Holy cow. Wilson went nuts in this game, particularly in the second half when Seattle was in full on comeback mode. He was 19/36 for 251 yards in the second half alone. His 12 average intended air yards was third best among quaterbacks on Sunday and he had the longest completed air distance of 58.1 yards on a nice deep ball to D.K Metcalf near the end of the first half. Wilson constantly made things happen with his legs, extending plays to buy himself more time before airing it out to Lockett and Metcalf. The 51 yards on the ground and two additional rushing touchdowns just add to his already incredibly high floor/ceiling combination.

What Did We Learn? With Chris Carson in the dog house right now (third fumble in as many games) and Rashaad Penny’s health questionable (he missed Sunday’s game) we could see Seattle lean on the pass a bit more after being the heaviest rushing team in football last season. Next up? The Arizona Cardinals who allowed undrafted free agent Kyle Allen to post the highest passer rating (144.4) in the league on Sunday and have consistently been shredded by opposing offenses so far this season.

Daniel Jones, NYG: 23/36, 336 yards, 2 TD and 4 rush, 28 yards, 2 TD

Another four touchdown quarterback. Similar to Wilson, Jones had two passing and two rushing scores on the day. In his first career start, Jones passed Eli Manning’s single-SEASON career high of one rushing touchdown in his 15 years as the starter. To say this was an impressive debut would be an understatement. He looked comfortable in the pocket. He didn’t “dink and dunk” all afternoon like you would often see with inexperienced quarterbacks. He pushed the ball downfield with a 9.8 intended average air yards and a long completed air distance of 42.5 yards. His completion rate (63.9%) was pretty much in line with his expected completion rate (60.6%) and he finished with a comfortable 112.7 passer rating. He did all this without his best weapon for much of the game, as Saquon went down with what appears to be a high ankle sprain and did not return. All in all, Giants fans have to be excited. With Golden Tate almost done with his suspension, this lackluster team suddenly has some excitement to it with Jones under center throwing to Shepard, Tate, and Engram who are some pretty solid pass catching options. Once they get Barkley back, this offense could be full steam ahead. If only they could play defense….

What Did We Learn? There's a new sheriff in the Meadowlands. Two thoughts here. 1) Calm down, it’s one start, and it was against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who, while improved on defense, are not a unit to shy away from or 2) This was a rookie quarterback, who most scoffed at when he was selected sixth overall out of Duke, making his NFL debut on the road. Regardless of which side you are on, I think we can all agree it won’t be this smooth every week. There will undoubtedly be bumps in the road. Even still, he’s a massive upgrade to every offensive piece on this team and his ability to take off running only adds to his floor. He proved today the talent is there we’ll just need to consider the price and match up going forward but he’ll likely be in consideration for many weeks the rest of the way.

Jacoby Brissett, IND: 28/37, 310 yards, 2 TD

Remember when everyone counted out the Colts after Andrew Luck’s retirement? Brissett clearly has other ideas. He went 16/16 to start this game and now has a 71.7% completion rate (70.5% expected completion rate) through the first three weeks. His 112 passer rating so far this season puts him sixth in the NFL among QBs who have made all three starts (sorry Kyle Allen) behind Mahomes (134.9), Prescott (128), Wilson (119.6), Brady (116.5), and Jackson (113.9). Frank Reich and the Colts coaching staff are putting their faith in him and he’s not letting them down. He has a shorter intended air yards of just 5.6, so he’s not pushing it downfield aggressively, but he’s also minimizing mistakes and turnovers with a 7:1 TD:INT ratio.

What Did We Learn? Through three weeks, Brissett can certainly hold his own. What concerns me about him going forward is the health of T.Y Hilton who was questionable all week with a quad injury and then left the game early when he aggravated it. Behind Hilton, there is a plethora of players but none have truly secured the WR2 role in this offense and it’s difficult seeing any of them ready to step into a WR1 role if Hilton misses time. The more realistic path would be for Indy to lean heavy on the run. If Hilton plays, Brissett is someone to consider as a punt quarterback with upside every week. If Hilton misses, his outlook is lowered considerably and I’d look to avoid him.

Running Backs

Aaron Jones, GB: 10 rush, 19 yards, 2 TD

Much of the fantasy community views Jones as an underutilized talent and was hoping, under new head coach Matt LeFleur, this would finally be the season he gets true RB1 usage. Instead, Coach LeFleur said last week he wanted to “even up” the touches more between Jones and Jamaal Williams and then followed through on that promise giving 12 carries to Williams and only 10 to Jones. Jones saved his day with the two goal line conversions but Williams was much more efficient, picking up 59 yards and also catching two passes for another 27 yards.

What Did We Learn? This backfield is a complete stay away until one of these two players separates from the other. With touches being split almost 50/50 and Williams being more involved in the pass game last week, you could argue at this point Williams is the better play since he comes with a much cheaper price tag. It’s possible the “hot hand” approach is used and if one of them is being really efficient during a game, they get the bulk of the carries. But trying to predict if and when that will happen will be near impossible.

Kerryon Johnson, DET: 20 rush, 36 yards, 1 TD and 1 reception, 7 yards

The stat line isn’t pretty but this was a challenging match up against a Philadelphia run defense that ranked second in rush defense DVOA going into week three. The important takeaway here is Johnson’s usage. After splitting touches consistently, despite clearly being the better player, with Theo Reddick last season, we all figured we would be in for the same thing all over again when the Lions added C.J. Anderson this off-season. Then, after week two, the Lions released Anderson, starting the speculation of whether or not Kerryon would become the workhorse or potentially split time with Ty Johnson. Our questions were answered this week. This is Kerryon's backfield now and that is very, very exciting. Don’t worry about the stat line. The usage (and the goal line work) is what’s most important here.

What Did We Learn? Kerryon is a three down back after setting a career high in carries with 20 and playing 77% of the Lions’ offensive snaps. He was on the field for nearly every third down and he received four goal line carries. Ty Johnson only received four carries. Better YPC numbers will come with better match ups and if this is the usage we’ll see with Kerryon moving forward then he’s firmly in the weekly RB1 conversation in all formats.

David Johnson, ARI: 11 rushes, 37 yards and 6 receptions, 28 yards, 1 TD

Similar to Kerryon Johnson, David Johnson’s stat line isn’t pretty. Unlike Kerryon, we shouldn’t be surprised at David’s usage. We know he’s the bell cow back in the Arizona offense, only occasionally ceding touches to Chase Edmonds. What we should take away from Sunday’s game is how involved he was in the passing game. So far, from a pure rushing standpoint, Johnson has done nothing but run into brick walls. Through three games he has a total of just 133 yards on the ground. Kingsbury may have finally realized that running behind his awful offensive line is likely a waste of time and he seemed to make more of an effort to get Johnson involved in the “air raid” offense this week. His six receptions were on nine targets (second to only Christian Kirk) and he also had a red zone target which he was able to convert.

What Did We Learn? David Johnson is far too talented to disappear all-together but in this pass first offense, rushing opportunities may be difficult to come by. As long as Kliff Kingsbury continues to get creative and finds ways to get him the ball in space as a pass catcher, Johnson still has monster upside each week, particularly in PPR formats. Until we see his rushing production improve, however, his floor is significantly lower than in years past, making him tough to trust in cash games.

Wide Receivers

JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT: 3 receptions, 81 yards, 1 TD

This was very, very ugly. First off, under a 50% catch rate is obviously not ideal. Second, Rudolph had the third lowest average completed air yards (2.3) among quarterbacks on Sunday. The majority of his throws were at or near the line of scrimmage. Had JuJu not broken loose for a 76 yard touchdown, we’d be looking at a very different stat line today.

What Did We Learn? JuJu is still one of the most talented wide receivers in football. He’s also likely to be peppered with targets and heavily leaned on by the inexperienced Rudolph. The problem is those targets are unlikely to translate to much fantasy production if the Steelers can’t figure out how to get Rudolph to push the ball downfield more and mix up JuJu’s routes/looks. You can consider him in GPP formats and hope he breaks one loose exactly like he did in this game but understand the chances of that happening are much lower than they used to be.

Keenan Allen, LAC: 13 receptions, 183 yards, 2 TDs

Alright, I’m tired of talking about players who didn’t perform up to expectations. Let’s talk about someone who did. For the second straight week, Allen had 15+ targets thrown his way. According to Rotoworld, Allen joins Julio Jones (2015), Adam Thielen (2018), Wes Welker (2011), Antonio Brown (2018), and Julian Edelman (2015) as the only players with a least 42 targets through the first three weeks in the last 10 years. He has nine more targets this season then the next closest player (Michael Thomas – 33).

What Did We Learn? Allen is absolutely locked in as the top receiver in the very pass-heavy offense of the Los Angeles Chargers. Phillip Rivers has never been afraid to lock on to his best players as opposed to trying to spread the ball around. With Hunter Henry out for the foreseeable future and Mike Williams off and on injured, this offense has a fairly narrow distribution and is going to go through Allen and Austin Ekler. Allen’s floor is massive with his target share and his yards after the catch ability and red zone opportunities give him one of the strongest floor/ceiling combinations in the NFL. He’s in play for all formats every week. Up next? Miami. So he’ll be chalky.

Mike Evans, TB: 8 receptions, 190 yards, 3 TD

As Joe and Chris wisely pointed out in the PreSnap podcast prior to Sunday, Evans was sick during week one and you could tell he wasn’t 100% during the game and then they followed that up with a road game on a short week for Thursday night football. Evans just truly never had a chance to get going this season and Chris Godwin picked up the slack. Fully healthy and at home, Evans exploded this week, so hopefully you bought him at his low price tag on DraftKings and FanDuel. In week three, Evans had 16.5 average targeted air yards and a ridiculous 52% share of the teams total air yards. Two of his three touchdowns were from 20 yards out and the third came from inside the five.

What Did We Learn? Mike Evans is not dead and he’s still the number one option in this offense. If you are a Chris Godwin owner, don’t panic. He was due for some regression so I’m not surprised to see him with a disappointing day. Overall, however, there is plenty of room to sustain two high end wide receivers in this pass-heavy offense. Jameis Winston looked more comfortable this week, granted it was against an awful Giants defense, but it was a step in the right direction. Negative game script will force Tampa Bay to the air more often than not so Evans and Godwin will both be in play, provided the salary and match up make sense.

Tight Ends

Evan Engram, NYG: 6 receptions, 113 yards, 1 TD

Engram’s 30 targets this season is tied with Zach Ertz for the most in the NFL among tight ends. Ertz, however, was forced 16 targets in week two when the majority of the Eagles pass catchers left the game due to injury. Engram has a very impressive 76% catch rate and 6.5 yards after catch per reception through the first three weeks of the season.

What Did We Learn? Look out Travis Kelce, there’s another tight end looking to leave his mark at the top of the rankings. I’m kidding obviously, as long as Kelce has Mahomes throwing to him, he’ll be nearly impossible to catch as the league’s top tight end. I do think we can definitely agree that Engram has been a bright spot in an otherwise volatile position in fantasy this season. Plus, with Daniel Jones now under center, his outlook is only improving. Saquon’s injury also adds to Engram’s already exciting upside, as Barkley will leave behind several targets per game which will need to be absorbed by others. He’s locked in as a top option at the tight end position every week going forward.

Darren Waller, OAK: 13 receptions, 134 yards, 0 TD

Waller has taken over the Jared Cook role in this offense from last season as Derek Carr’s security blanket which was a very fantasy friendly role in an otherwise not so fantasy friendly offense. Waller’s 29 targets through three weeks are second to only Engram and Ertz at the tight end position and his 26 receptions are actually second in the NFL behind only Keenan Allen. The downside? He has an 89% catch rate which suggests most of his receptions are higher percentage throws (which lowers the ceiling) and he has yet to find the end zone which also hurts his chances of ever reaching his ceiling.

What Did We Learn? Waller is locked in as the favorite pass catching option on the Raiders. Since Oakland will more often than not be playing from behind, you can expect they’ll have to open things up a bit which should continue to lead to heavy targets for Waller giving him a very high floor. As long as the Raiders struggle to put points on the board, however, Waller’s lack of touchdown upside keeps his ceiling quite a bit lower. Coach Gruden also went out of his way to discuss how he wanted to get Josh Jacobs more involved as a pass catcher going forward which could potentially eat into Waller’s targets. For now, Waller is a fine option at an ugly position if you’re looking for floor (which is very hard to find at tight end) but this is a situation to monitor.

Greg Olsen, CAR: 6 receptions, 75 yards, 2 TD

Tight ends against the Cardinals. This will be a theme all season long. Here are the stat lines the Cardinals defense has given up to the tight end position so far this season:

• T.J Hockenson: 6 receptions, 131 yards, 1 TD

• Mark Andrews: 8 receptions, 112 yards, 1 TD

• Greg Olsen: 6 receptions, 75 yards, 2 TD

Brutal. The Cardinals get Will Dissly and the Seattle Seahawks next. Dissly feels a bit “point chasey” if you will, but he did find the end zone for the second consecutive week this past Sunday and will be facing a team that has allowed five touchdowns to tight ends through the first three weeks of the season (Hayden Hurst scored one as well on his lone target in week two).

What Did We Learn? Target the Cardinals with tight ends. Beyond that, this wasn’t Olsen’s first solid game this season. His 25 targets are tied with Travis Kelce and his 25% targeted air yards market share is solid on a team with several pass catching options. As long as Olsen stays healthy, which is a big risk, he’s one of the more dangerous (and under the radar at this point in his career) tight ends in the league.

Millionaire Maker In Review

In this section we'll take a look at the winning "milly maker" lineup with a focus on players selected, ownership, and roster construction. I'll switch back and forth between DraftKings and FanDuel.

Let’s switch it up a bit this week and check out the winning lineup from FanDuel’s Sunday Million contest. Congratulations to user bobbywow1 who put up 238.54 points and took down the million dollar first place prize in week three. Let’s take a quick look at his lineup:

The three man Giants stack stands out right away with Daniel Jones at just 2.9% ownership and Sterling Shepard at only 1.8% ownership. In hindsight, we should have been looking at the Giants/Buccaneers game as a possible shootout all week given the lack of pass defense on both sides. We were likely hesitant to trust Daniel Jones in his first career start on the road to be able to support that kind of environment. Obviously, we were wrong. This user also ran the Giants stack back with Mike Evans, who we already talked about as being a sharp play this week with how far his price had dropped after a rough start to the season that was really out of his control considering the illness and then a short week.

Outside of that four player correlation stack, Mark Ingram was a player that everyone overlooked (myself included). The Chiefs/Ravens game was another anticipated shootout but with the Ravens expected to play from behind trying to keep up with Patrick Mahomes and company, everyone concentrated on the pass game options for Baltimore and completely overlooked Mark Ingram. He’s as sure a bet as any to find the end zone at least once per week and this week it just happened to be three times. Combine those plays with a chalk Christian McCaffrey who didn't disappoint and Keenan Allen following up a 15 target game with a 17 target game and you're a millionaire.

Overall, this was a solid build around a core that was anticipating a shootout between the Giants and Bucs and then he filled in the pieces around it with players who have locked in usage, regardless of ownership. To make it all fit, he paid down at defense with an improved 49ers unit that has been putting pressure on the quarterback and was facing a very inexperienced Mason Rudolph.

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