By: Greg Landry | LineStar Chat: @glandry | Twitter: @GP_Landry

Welcome to NFL Takeaways! An important, and often overlooked, foundation of any DFS process is taking a look back at the previous slate and honestly assessing how we did. What did we get right? What did we get wrong? How can I learn from this and improve next week? This will be a weekly newsletter series with that focus in mind.

Make sure you catch the Monday NFL Review Podcast with Joe and Chris!

Subscribe now wherever you listen to podcasts!

iTunes | Google Podcasts | Spotify | iHeartRADIO | Stitcher | YouTube 

We are halfway through the season and the injuries are beginning to pile up. Multiple key players went down this week who could have implications on the fantasy landscape moving forward including:

• Brandon Cooks (concussion) could open up some targets for the other Rams receivers.

• J.J. Watt (torn pectoral) will be a downgrade to the Texans defense (and an upgrade to the offenses that face them).

• Miles Sanders (shoulder) could possibly hand additional carries to Jordan Howard.

• Sam Darnold (thumb) was already struggling and could be a further downgrade to this offense (sorry Bell owners).

• Chase Edmonds (hamstring) is going to struggle to play by Thursday night. The Cardinals backfield is a mess right now with DJ and Edmonds not fully healthy and the addition of Kenyon Drake.

• Joe Flacco (neck) is possibly heading to IR and Brandon Allen will start week nine for Denver.

• Dede Westbrook (neck and shoulder) could open up more targets for DJ Chark and Chris Conley.

• Matt Breida (ankle) and Jeff Wilson Jr (head) could turn this previous four-man backfield into a two man backfield with Tevin Coleman getting the biggest share of the work.

• James Connor (shoulder) no official word yet but was seen leaving the game in a sling and there was speculation he broke his clavicle. Jaylen Samuels, widely considered one of the better handcuffs in football, would be an instant value option if Connors misses time. Samuels, however, is recovering from a knee scope and it's unclear if he'll be ready. Benny Snell also went down with a knee injury last night. Trey Edmonds is the only remaining running back on this team. Pittsburgh will surely go out and sign someone (or trade for someone) today.

These will all be players worth watching throughout the week in addition to other previously injured players who may or may not be able to come back (looking at you Will Fuller). On top of injuries, today is also the trade deadline, which could open up additional value if anyone changes teams this afternoon. If you’re not already getting the news alerts from the LineStar app make sure you set that up so you can stay up to date more easily with the latest injury/trade news and adjust your rosters accordingly. Let’s take a look at the top scoring fantasy players from week nine:

What Did We Learn?

Here we'll focus on a few players at each position who stood out (both good and bad) and identify if there's any actionable information we can use when building our rosters going forward.

Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson, SEA: 14/20, 182 yards, 2 TDs

I saw a lot of people freaking out on Twitter about Wilson. This was a dream spot against an awful Falcons secondary but what people overlooked, however, is Seattle is a (frustratingly) run-heavy offense. Any game script which allows them to keep the ball on the ground and feed Chris Carson, they are going to do it, even if the match up suggests they will have more success through the air like this one did (Atlanta ranks a solid 4th in rush defense DVOA but 31st in pass defense DVOA). As soon as Matt Ryan was ruled out and we were confident Seattle would be able to control this game, Wilson should have been taken off your radar. He was too much of a risk to have his upside capped. Seattle, Minnesota, and San Francisco are all very similar offenses in this way. They know they are talented in both the run game and the pass game (and also have above average defenses) and because of that they will stick to the ground as much as possible and rely on their defense in an effort to avoid mistakes rather than get aggressive when they don't need to. There’s nothing wrong with Wilson or the Seattle passing attack other than they are part of an offense that remains true to the run (48% run play rate) unless absolutely necessary to air it out. Their next opponent, Tampa Bay, is similar to Atlanta where they are strong against the run (1st rush defense DVOA) but weak against the pass (25th pass defense DVOA). But, Seattle is -6.5 point favorites in that match up. Don’t be surprised to see them go run heavy again even against the league’s best run defense.

Drew Brees, NO: 34/43, 373 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT

Welcome back to the future hall of fame quarterback. There appeared to be very little rust after missing several games with his thumb injury. Honestly, I was surprised the Saints had him play considering how well Bridgewater had been playing and the Saints having a week nine bye. I figured they would let Brees take the extra rest in a game they likely would have won even with Bridgewater and then come back after the bye week ready to go. Even more surprising was they also let him air it out 43 times instead of easing him in. Clearly, they aren’t worried about his health, and now they've given Brees a chance to shake off the rust prior to the bye week so he can really hit the ground running (passing?) when they come back. You can treat Brees as a high end QB1 the rest of the way.

In addition to Brees being back on our radars, this also has an impact in a few other DFS related areas as well. 1) We should see higher scoring games in the Superdome now as the pace should increase with Brees vs. Bridgewater 2) Michael Thomas has never been a high aDOT player to begin with but it should be higher with Brees than Bridgewater, which just adds to his already incredible floor/ceiling (Frustratingly, he had just 2.4 average intended air yards in this game but he made up for it with a 100% catch rate on 11 targets) 3) You can consider the ancillary pieces of this Saints offense again, namely Ted Ginn, in large field tournaments as the Saints are likely to open things up a little with a few shots downfield each game with Brees under center.

Running Backs

Tevin Coleman, SF: 11 carries, 105 yards, 3 TD, two catches, 13 yards, 1 TD

Speaking of teams that are perfectly happy to go run heavy, San Francisco, the league’s most run heavy offense, is hell-bent on slowing the game down, playing good defense, and only leaning on Garoppolo when they have to. Incredibly, they are running at a 58% rate! The next closest team is the Vikings at 53% and the league average is 41%. I wanted to highlight Coleman because a lot of people will say this week he only had success because Breida left the game early and Coleman got more work as a result. This isn’t true. Coleman still only had 11 carries despite Breida’s exit, which he would have received anyway. Raheem Mostert received the extra carries after Breida got hurt since the 49ers already had a big lead and it was garbage time anyway. Coleman’s strong fantasy performance was the result of excellent efficiency, averaging a whopping 9.5 yards per carry and finding the end zone an incredible four times. In week nine, the 49ers play on Thursday night against the Cardinals (26th in run defense DVOA) where they are currently -9.5 favorites. Once again, we should see the 49ers lean heavy on the run, putting Coleman in an excellent spot. I’m typically a fan of playing the Thursday to Monday slate and fading the Thursday night players but I think you could make a case for Coleman this week, especially if Breida sits this one out.

David Montgomery, CHI: 27 carries, 135 yards, 4 catches, 12 yards

He’s alive! Anyone who spent a fairly high draft pick in season long (I believe his final ADP was fourth or fifth round?) finally got a chance to see the talented rookie flash some of his preseason hype. Coach Nagy did not disappoint after promising to get Montgomery more involved this week. Personally, I was on the “I’ll believe it when I see it approach” so I missed out on this performance. But if you listened to the coach speak, you were rewarded (although not finding the end zone hurt a bit). He out touched teammate and fellow running back Tarik Cohen in this one 31-7 and given how efficient he was (and all the questions about Trubisky) I think we can expect the Bears to lean on him more going forward. That's the good news.

The bad news is despite this breakout performance, there is still quite a bit to be pessimistic about. First, Montgomery finally got to display his talent but as long as that talent is tied to a talent-less quarterback, it's going to limit his upside. The Bears will continue to struggle to put up points as long as Trubisky is under center. Second, the Bears take on the pass funnel defense of the Eagles in week nine and you can bet your life that Jim Schwartz will game plan around stopping Montgomery and forcing the Bears to beat them with Trubisky through the air. In my opinion, this will be the perfect week to hop off the Montgomery train while everyone else is hopping on. In week ten, the Bears take on the Lions, so we can hop back on for that game when everyone else is hopping off again (assuming he doesn't perform well against Philadelphia).

Wide Receivers

DK Metcalf, SEA: 3 receptions, 13 yards, 2 TDs

According to ESPN’s Mike Clay, Metcalf now leads the league in end zone targets with 13. Given his 6’ 3” frame and the absence of Will Dissly who landed on IR for the season, Metcalf could really carve out a nice role on a strong offense as the “red zone” option while also carrying the speed and skills to do some damage between the 20s. He nearly had a third touchdown catch in this game but he couldn't come down with an over the shoulder grab in the back corner of the end zone. There will be better yardage games ahead but if he’s going to be a weekly threat to score, he could be one of the better upside wide receivers down the stretch. Unfortunately, as we discussed earlier, the risk here is how run-heavy Seattle prefers to be, which lowers his floor. He has the talent and the "path" to volume each week but banking on that volume is a bit of a guessing game which takes him out of cash game consideration most weeks. Keep your eye on him and look for game scripts that may force Seattle to throw more often than usual.

Julio Jones, ATL: 10 catches, 152 yards, 0 TDs

Jalen Ramsey coverage? No problem. Backup quarterback Matt Schaub throwing you passes? Still no issues. Jones now has over 20 fantasy points (DraftKings scoring) in half of his games this season including two of his last three. The issue is he never finds pay dirt. This was his fifth straight game without scoring despite target counts of 7,7,9,9,12 in those games. Logic suggests he should see some regression to the mean in terms of touchdowns, but given his history of scoring droughts, I’m a bit hesitant to say definitively that he should start scoring sooner rather than later. Regardless, he’s proving he has one of the top two floor/ceiling combinations among wide receivers in the league (I would put Michael Thomas in this category also) regardless of match up, quarterback, or any other variable you can throw at him. The one thing we know for sure is he will be relentlessly targeted every week and with his ability to break one loose at any moment, his ceiling is unmatched. The Falcons are on a bye this week which should hopefully give Matt Ryan enough time to get healthy. Atlanta's season is over but Jones can still put up some serious fantasy production down the stretch.

Tight Ends

Noah Fant, DEN: 5 receptions, 26 yards

Yea, yea I know. Who cares? It’s not about the receptions or yards here. It’s the fact that Fant, who was a first round pick this year, saw eight targets in this game. Prior to this game, he had seen target counts of 5, 4, 3, 4, 1, 3, and 5. His first game without Emmanuel Sanders resulted in some spiked volume and an expanded role. With tight end being such an awful fantasy position, anyone with a path to this type of target volume needs to be on our radar. Perhaps even better news is Joe Flacco looks like he could be heading for IR. Not that I’m hoping for Flacco to be hurt, but I do think Brandon Allen could bring some additional upside to this offense. He’s never started an NFL game but he showed some promise in the preseason and honestly, at this point, anything should be considered an upgrade over Flacco. If Fant is going to find himself in the 7-10 target range without Sanders going forward, then he’ll be someone worth watching at a very weak position.

Darren Fells, HOU: 6 receptions, 58 yards, 2 TDs

Fells continues to be a red zone weapon for Watson and the Texans. His usage has been very sporadic, however, seeing target counts of 1, 3, 6, 1, 2, 7, 2, and 6. I’d like to say the six targets in this game were the result of Will Fuller being out and some extra targets became available to go around but it would be pure speculation on my part. The bottom line is Fells will be a guy who occasionally falls into the end zone but is unlikely to put up much in the receptions and yards department each week. He’ll be incredibly difficult to project. I could see him gaining some popularity across the industry at such a weak position after four touchdowns in his last four games. I’ll be staying away from him as an option myself.

Millionaire Maker In Review

In this section we'll take a look at the winning "milly maker" lineup with a focus on players selected, ownership, and roster construction. I'll switch back and forth between DraftKings and FanDuel.

Let’s take a look at the winning lineup for Sunday's DraftKings Millionaire Maker tournament:

There was a lot of buzz around that Detroit and New York game in terms of fantasy production. No Kerryon Johnson opens up value at the running back spot on Detroit. A Giants defense that ranks 27th in pass defense DVOA, a Lions defense that ranks 15th in pass defense DVOA and would be without Darius Slay. While everyone was talking about Ty Johnson and obviously Saquon Barkley, nobody was talking about Daniel Jones. This lineup built around the scenario that this would be a high scoring, back and forth contest, but focused completely on the passing attacks while many focused on the run games. Jones put up a monster game and while Tate and Engram didn't break the slate, they (clearly) did enough to get the job done (particularly Engram given how weak tight end is). They ran it back with Golladay, who was chalk at the wide receiver position, but rightfully so. This is now the fourth consecutive winning lineup that had a quarterback stacked with two pass catchers and then ran it back with a pass catcher from the other team. These four man stacks seem to be the optimal approach.

You basically had to play Latavius Murray on Sunday. The talent is there, on a strong offense inside the dome, against a Cardinals defense that ranked 26th in DVOA against the run. The Saints were heavy favorites. He checked every box. Honestly, 34.8% ownership isn't nearly enough and just proves there is still an edge in DFS. For his price, he was a free square. Tevin Coleman was an outstanding play. As we talked about earlier, people tend to shy away from "committee" running back situations. But when that committee is the heaviest run team in the league, there is still enough work to go around (and it generally keeps the price low). Combine that with a match up against the Panthers run funnel defense (3rd in pass defense DVOA and 30th in rush defense DVOA) and Coleman was way under priced.

Mike Evans was a bold play that worked out. He has the talent to go off on any slate regardless of match up, so this was a good spot to bet on that talent at under 10% ownership. Prior to Sunday, the Titans defense had yet to allow a 100 yard receiver despite match ups against some pretty difficult competition including T.Y. Hilton, Keenan Allen, Cortland Sutton, Odell Beckham, Jr., etc. We talked about Metcalf already. Only 13 yards receiving but that doesn't matter when two of your three catches are inside pay dirt.

Last, but not least, the Patriots defense. They are a cheat code. Relative to other defenses, they are expensive but you're essentially paying in the low to mid $4K range for RB1 production with 21.3 FPPG so far this season. Everything we were taught in DFS tells us that defense is volatile, never to pay up, and always avoid the chalk. New England is making it extremely difficult for us to follow that logic. Up next? The Ravens, off the bye week, and on the road. A lot of the industry will say this is the Patriots first real test and it's likely to cause a lot of people to hop off. I'm going to stay on for another week and try to get this defense, which has given us zero reason to doubt them, at slightly lower ownership then we've seen in recent weeks. Unfortunately, they aren't on the main slate, but still we can find spots to use them.

🚨 Get 3 Free Months of LineStar Premium 🚨

Get 3-months of LineStar Premium for new users to SuperDraft who deposit/play $10!

Terms: Partnership offers do NOT renew. See SuperDraft landing page for full terms and conditions. Must be a new user to SuperDraft and deposit and play a minimum of $10 to qualify. If you have an existing LineStar Premium subscription you get a Hat/Tee/Pen combo instead of the 3-months.