LineStar® NFL Takeaways | Will Joe Burrow Ever Be The Same?

Welcome back to LineStar NFL Takeaways! For those of you new to the community here, this article is published every Tuesday and takes a position by position look at several players whose fantasy performance stood out (both good and bad) and what this might mean in the fantasy landscape as we start to prepare for the week ahead.

Week 11 is in the books! It was an interesting week, and reviewing what happened could help us throughout the remaining weeks of the season. 

Let’s highlight a few players from this past week and also talk about some key injuries that will affect the rest of the season. 

What Did We Learn?

Here we'll focus on some players at each position who stood out (both good and bad) and identify if there's any actionable information we can use when building our rosters going forward.

Quarterbacks

Taysom Hill, NO: 18/23, 233 yards, 10 carries, 51 yards, 2 TD

Hopefully, you took advantage of FanDuel laughably giving us a free square at TE this week. Hill was surprisingly selected as the starting QB over Winston. I had expected Hill would play a bigger role but not be the primary quarterback following Drew Brees injury. He wasn’t spectacular by any stretch but he did enough to get the job done. As usual, he did more with his legs as the team’s leading rusher and scoring twice on the ground. Given that this was about as soft a matchup as it gets for quarterbacks (Atlanta was allowing the most fantasy points per game coming into this week and have allowed all opposing quarterbacks except for one to throw for over 300 yards) we shouldn’t be overly surprised by the result here. I’m curious if they’ll pivot to Winston for their next matchup on the road in Denver. 

PJ Walker, CAR: 24/34, 258 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT

What a wild ride it’s been for Walker to get to this point. He started this season as the starting quarterback of the Houston Roughnecks in the XFL and actually led the team to a 5-0 start before COVID shut it down. Now, he finds himself picking up a win in his first career start in the NFL. It wasn’t even clear right up until kickoff who would start this game. There were conflicting reports about whether or not Bridgewater would be active. I saw one report saying he was inactive, another saying he was starting, and a third saying he was active but would only be used in an emergency. Regardless, in Walker's first career start, he held his own. Had it not been for two brutal interceptions in the end zone, displaying his inexperience, this would have been an impressive performance. He flashed some serious touch making a couple of really nice deep throws and also showed off some speed moving around in the pocket and to keep plays alive. At the end of the day, there’s not a lot of actionable information here for Walker. If Bridgewater was so close to starting this week I imagine he’ll be back in next week. The piece to highlight here is once again attacking the Lions defense is proving to be a profitable move. Ideally, Stafford will be healthy when you do, and hopefully, make it a competitive game with shootout potential. The upside from both teams was crushed in this game with the Lion's offense unable to get anything going.

Andy Dalton, DAL: 22/32, 203 yards, 3 TD, INT

It has been an incredibly challenging year for the Dallas Cowboys. After losing Dak to a gruesome injury and then losing Andy Dalton to a vicious hit (and then COVID) nobody would blame them for giving up on this year. But, the fact remains that anyone in this division is in the hunt for a playoff spot right now. There is still more than enough time for these guys to turn it around and get on a run when it matters most. Getting Andy Dalton back was a huge step. Key receivers had their first meaningful games in several weeks with Amari Cooper hauling in six of seven targets for 81 yards and Ezekiel Elliot going over 100 yards rushing for the first time this season (!!) and scoring his first touchdown since week five. The Cowboys scored their first touchdown, on the road, since week three. With Dalton back under center, the Cowboys once again look like they have a chance to win the horrendous NFC East. This means we can start to consider players on this roster again. Don’t expect Dak level returns but at the right price and in the right matchup, they could be a source of value down the stretch.

Running Backs

Derrick Henry, TEN: 28 carries, 133 yards, TD

This was a difficult matchup for Henry with Baltimore ranking first in yards per attempt allowed to running backs, third in rush defense DVOA, and fifth in explosive plays allowed to running backs. Yet, after losing three of their last four games, the Titans decided they needed to get back to what they do best - feeding the beast. In games where Henry receives more than 20 carries, Tennessee is 6-0. In games where Henry receives 20 carries or less, the Titans are 1-3. Every game is going to be equally important down the stretch in the incredibly close race in the NFC South. Expect the Titans to continue to commit to the run. His lack of passing game involvement still makes him a bit riskier from a floor perspective, but 20 or more carries per game mean good things can happen.

JK Dobbins, BAL: 15 carries, 70 yards, TD

On the other side of this game, the Ravens also being a run-first team, attempted to exploit the matchup they had on the ground. Coming into this game, the Titans had allowed 13 TDs to running backs in only nine games and ranked 19th in rush defense DVOA. The Ravens were successful with a solid 33 carries (collectively) for 133 yards (3.9 yards per carry) and a touchdown. It’s notable that Dobbins had a lot more carries (15) than both Edwards (3) and Ingram (2). Baltimore’s confidence in Dobbins appears to be growing while their confidence in Ingram seems to be fading. At the end of the day though, this is always going to be a running back by committee as we also can’t forget that Lamar Jackson will get plenty of his own designed runs, in addition to the backs. Bottom line? Still hard to trust the Ravens backfield until we see multiple weeks of bankable volume from someone like Dobbins. Continue to attack the Titans with running backs. Note: Dobbins and Ingram have both been ruled out this week due to COVID.

Wide Receivers

Keenan Allen, LAC: 16 receptions. 145 yards, TD

We should not at all be surprised by the strong performance from the Chargers passing attack here. The Jets rank dead last in pass defense DVOA and are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 72% of their passes. Against receivers, they are allowing the 3rd highest success rate. As a result, opposing offenses have been scoring at will with the Jets allowing 27, 31, 36, 37, 30, 24, 18, 35, and 30 points per game coming into this week. The surprise boost came because this game ended up turning into a bit of a shootout with Joe Flacco managing to keep the Jets alive as long as he could. As a result, Herbert ended up throwing 49 times with Allen seeing a whopping 19 targets, pulling in 16 of them for 145 yards and a score. Against the Jets, you can expect an incredibly high floor with how bad their defense is but normally you would expect a limited ceiling assuming offenses can get out to a comfortable lead and take their foot off the gas. I wouldn't bank on most teams needing to throw nearly 50 times against them going forward.

Damiere Byrd, NE: 6 receptions, 132 yards, TD

We’ve talked several times in past weeks about how the Texans defense is a great unit to attack with opposing offenses. If you needed additional proof, you got it this week, with a struggling Patriots passing game putting up some solid numbers against this 22nd ranked passing defense. After peppering Jacobi Myers the past couple of weeks, Damiere Byrd came out of nowhere in this one. He was second on the team in targets (7) behind only running back James White (9) (Rex Burkhead was hurt in this game so expect a boost to James White’s targets going forward). Byrd made an incredible over the shoulder catch that resulted in his touchdown, his first as a Patriot. It was a nice performance, but I’m not going to be chasing points here. We know how difficult it is to project which Patriots player will see the most opportunities from week to week. I’m not putting much stock into a random spiked week from Byrd against a really bad Texans pass defense.

Diontae Johnson, 12 receptions, 111 yards

If I haven’t said it enough yet let me keep repeating it. Buy the Steelers passing attack. This was obviously exaggerated this week against the awful Jaguars pass defense, ranking 31st in DVOA. But still, we know that Pittsburgh loves to pass and we know the majority of the targets are going to Johnson, Claypool, and Smith-Schuster with a few leftover throws for Ebron. Johnson is slowly separating himself from this talented pack of receivers (provided he can stay healthy). He saw a decisive 16 targets in this one compared to eight for Chase Claypool. He nearly scored a touchdown making a really nice contested catch but falling just short of the goal line. The Steelers then, frustratingly, handed it to Benny Snell for the score. It’s worth noting JuJu Smith-Schuster was hurt in this game. Mike Tomlin said it wasn’t serious, but the Steelers are on a short week this week. If JuJu misses time then this passing attack will suddenly have a more narrow distribution of targets than usual. 

Tight Ends

Dallas Goedert, PHI: 5 receptions, 77 yards, TD

The Eagles, even without Ertz, continue to lean heavily on their tight ends. We’ve been waiting for the Goedert breakout game for a couple of weeks now, as he’s played 90% of the snaps but just hasn’t been able to do much with his opportunities (even getting outperformed by Richard Rodgers last week). This week, he saw six targets for the second week in a row and found the end zone for only the second time this season. Richard Rogers, frustratingly, continues to stay involved scoring a touchdown of his own in this one. Collectively, the tight ends had seven receptions for 135 yards and two touchdowns. Look for the Eagles to continue utilizing their tight ends whether Ertz is in the lineup or not. 

Key Injuries To Watch

In this section we'll take a look at some key injuries and what the potential impact may be for fantasy purposes.

Note: As a reminder, I’m writing this on Monday, so the news below may change depending on when you read this. Use the NFL beat writers Twitter feed (which is directly inside your LineStar account) as well as the news page to get up to speed. 

Joe Borrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals

Devastating. The only word that can describe this. Burrow has looked every bit like the real deal and the franchise QB the Bengals needed to start moving their team back in the right direction. Instead, they may have just lost him not only for the rest of this season but possibly for all of (at the very least most of) next season too. Burrow suffered a torn ACL, a torn MCL, and meniscus damage. Basically the worst-case scenario. The recovery time is about a year. With Ryan Finley taking over at quarterback, we can avoid this Bengals offense from now on.

JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

JuJu suffered a foot injury and did not return to the game. It’s being reported the injury isn’t serious but in a short week, I would expect him to be held out as a precaution. The Steelers are playing for the long game now after improving to 10-0.

Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons

More injury trouble for Jones who can never seem to stay on the field. This time it’s a hamstring injury which is always tricky. Expect additional targets for Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage. We’ve also seen Olamide Zaccheaus step up during these injury situations. We should expect an increase in snaps and potential targets for him as well.

La’Mical Perine, RB, New York Jets

This doesn’t really matter for fantasy purposes as we should have very little interest in a running back on a team that plays from behind every game. But, with Perine going down, Frank Gore is essentially the only running back left on the roster and will see the majority of the carries.

Rex Burkhead, RB, New England Patriots

Burkhead suffered a scary knee injury and was carted off the field. The Patriots made a bit of a commitment this week to Damian Harris as they activated Sony Michel off of injured reserve but he was a healthy scratch for the game. Expect Harris to be the primary ball carrier and White to be the passing down back (he should see the biggest boost from this). Don’t be surprised though if Michel mixes in. 

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